More real estate doom and gloom
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In Uncharted Times: Loans 90+ Days Past Due Reach Unprecedented Levels
Standard Delinquency Measures Paint an Incomplete Picture of the Severity of Mortgage Distress The latest loan performance data from CoreLogic
www.corelogic.com
Nothing bad will happen then!
"It's different this time."
Reading articles like this fill me with hope. I can't wait to raise a child whilst living above a garage. Itll be like the American Dream realized.
Prices will never go down again, buy now!"It's different this time."
This is why my house is now worth double. We are only 30 minutes from downtown, but the urban sprawl has gone everywhere but north until now. Folks think north of Portland is Washington, but there is that weird sticky uppy part of the state that has now exploded.
www.nytimes.com
House Hunters Are Leaving the City, and Builders Can’t Keep Up (Published 2021)
For years, people most wanted to live in places where it was the hardest to build. Now, with a rise in remote work, exurban areas look more appealing.
Two homes we went to see recently just posted their final sale prices.
List: 399K
Sale: 496K
www.zillow.com
List: 425K
Sale: 550K
www.zillow.com
List: 399K
Sale: 496K
1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $496,000. 1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 1,764 sq ft and was built in 1995. It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $516,600, which has increased by $813 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for...
www.zillow.com
List: 425K
Sale: 550K
108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $550,000. 108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 3,174 sq ft and was built in 1731. It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $573,000, which has increased by $927 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this...
www.zillow.com
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You should have pulled harder on your bootstraps and bought that second one!Two homes we went to see recently just posted their final sale prices.
List: 399K
Sale: 496K
1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $496,000. 1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 1,764 sq ft and was built in 1995. It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $516,600, which has increased by $813 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for...
List: 425K
Sale: 550K
108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $550,000. 108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 3,174 sq ft and was built in 1731. It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $573,000, which has increased by $927 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this...
At the age of 24, I went into an Allen Edmonds looking for a nice pair of boots ($350) to wear to the office. Whilst trying on a pair, I tugged on the bootstrap, apparently too hard, and ripped it clean off. Salesman stared at me, I stared at him, both knowing there was no way I was now buying these boots, then he kindly suggested I show myself out. Little did I realize how this chance encounter would be the perfect parable for my coming of adulthood story.
Re that house: Words cannot do that house justice, it was next level jank, even considering it was from the 1700s. Maybe I lack vision, maybe I have too much of it. I'd struggle to describe to you how ramshackle it was and how much money and time it would take it to bring it back to a reasonable state.
Two homes we went to see recently just posted their final sale prices.
List: 399K
Sale: 496K
1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $496,000. 1 High Oaks Path, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 1,764 sq ft and was built in 1995. It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $516,600, which has increased by $813 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for...
List: 425K
Sale: 550K
108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA 01463 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $550,000. 108 River Rd, Pepperell, MA is a single family home that contains 3,174 sq ft and was built in 1731. It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $573,000, which has increased by $927 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this...
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5 Stages of A Bubble
Asset bubbles are deceptive and unpredictable, but understanding the five stages they characteristically go through can help investors prepare for them.
Economist Hyman P. Minsky was one of the first to explain the development of financial instability and the relationship it has with the economy. In his pioneering book Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986), he identified five stages in a typical credit cycle, one of several recurrent economic cycles.
These stages also outline the basic pattern of a bubble.
1. Displacement
A displacement occurs when investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or interest rates that are historically low. A classic example of displacement is the decline in the federal funds rate from 6.5% in July 2000, to 1.2% in June 2003.2
Over this three-year period, the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 2.5 percentage points to a then-historic low of 5.23%, sowing the seeds for the subsequent housing bubble.3
2. Boom
Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold.
3. Euphoria
During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise, and the "greater fool" theory—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more—plays out everywhere.
For example, at the peak of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1989, prime office space in Tokyo sold for as much as $139,000 per square foot.4 Similarly, at the height of the Internet bubble in March 2000, the combined value of all technology stocks on the Nasdaq was higher than the GDP of most nations.5
4. Profit-Taking
In this phase, the smart money—heeding the warning signs that the bubble is about at its bursting point—starts selling positions and taking profits. But estimating the exact time when a bubble is due to collapse can be a difficult exercise because, as economist John Maynard Keynes put it, "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
In Aug. 2007, for example, French bank BNP Paribas halted withdrawals from three investment funds with substantial exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages because it could not value their holdings.6 While this development initially rattled financial markets, it was brushed aside over the next couple of months, as global equity markets reached new highs. In retrospect, Paribas had the right idea, and this relatively minor event was indeed a warning sign of the turbulent times to come.
5. Panic
It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot inflate again. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced with margin calls and plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply.
One of the most vivid examples of global panic in financial markets occurred in Oct. 2008, weeks after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG almost collapsed. The S&P 500 plunged almost 17% that month, its ninth-worst monthly performance.7
I've been saying the bubble will pop "any day now" for almost 10 years, so obviously I'm no expert, but those two places seem to me to be perfect examples of the market being somewhere between stages 3 and 4. Locally, this place went for 40K over asking and I know it's not worth almost 400K, because it's across the street from me.
6150 Desoto Dr, Colorado Springs, CO 80922 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $385,000. 6150 Desoto Dr, Colorado Springs, CO is a single family home that contains 1,578 sq ft and was built in 1987. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $430,900, which has increased by $9,500 in the last 30 days. The Rent...
www.zillow.com
There's an additional variable to the bubble that isn't accounted for in the above - inflation. There has been a monstrous increase in the amount of US dollars with a low cost to borrow it - and it has to go somewhere. If you look at CPI, housing (somehow!?) is barely reflecting price increases, while used cars is reflecting clearly. My only thought there is that you have urban populations now moving out of cities into the suburbs, because they can work remote now (I know our company isn't going back to an office model unless people actually need it from a support standpoint). If you're normally playing $2k/m for a rental and can pay $2k/m for a mtge, even if it drives up the local home prices, so be it - you're break-even. This new/inflated money is getting wrapped up into hard assets (houses) in the form of new loans. New home building is accelerating (see above), things like home renovations are happening (see above) which is driving up materials demand (new houses more expensive, so used houses which are normally cheaper get more demand). It all makes sense as to why it's happening.Five Stages of a Bubble5 Stages of A Bubble
Asset bubbles are deceptive and unpredictable, but understanding the five stages they characteristically go through can help investors prepare for them.www.investopedia.com
Economist Hyman P. Minsky was one of the first to explain the development of financial instability and the relationship it has with the economy. In his pioneering book Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986), he identified five stages in a typical credit cycle, one of several recurrent economic cycles.
These stages also outline the basic pattern of a bubble.
1. Displacement
A displacement occurs when investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or interest rates that are historically low. A classic example of displacement is the decline in the federal funds rate from 6.5% in July 2000, to 1.2% in June 2003.2
Over this three-year period, the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 2.5 percentage points to a then-historic low of 5.23%, sowing the seeds for the subsequent housing bubble.3
2. Boom
Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold.
3. Euphoria
During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise, and the "greater fool" theory—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more—plays out everywhere.
For example, at the peak of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1989, prime office space in Tokyo sold for as much as $139,000 per square foot.4 Similarly, at the height of the Internet bubble in March 2000, the combined value of all technology stocks on the Nasdaq was higher than the GDP of most nations.5
4. Profit-Taking
In this phase, the smart money—heeding the warning signs that the bubble is about at its bursting point—starts selling positions and taking profits. But estimating the exact time when a bubble is due to collapse can be a difficult exercise because, as economist John Maynard Keynes put it, "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
In Aug. 2007, for example, French bank BNP Paribas halted withdrawals from three investment funds with substantial exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages because it could not value their holdings.6 While this development initially rattled financial markets, it was brushed aside over the next couple of months, as global equity markets reached new highs. In retrospect, Paribas had the right idea, and this relatively minor event was indeed a warning sign of the turbulent times to come.
5. Panic
It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot inflate again. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced with margin calls and plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply.
One of the most vivid examples of global panic in financial markets occurred in Oct. 2008, weeks after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG almost collapsed. The S&P 500 plunged almost 17% that month, its ninth-worst monthly performance.7
I've been saying the bubble will pop "any day now" for almost 10 years, so obviously I'm no expert, but those two places seem to me to be perfect examples of the market being somewhere between stages 3 and 4. Locally, this place went for 40K over asking and I know it's not worth almost 400K, because it's across the street from me.
6150 Desoto Dr, Colorado Springs, CO 80922 | Zillow
Zestimate® Home Value: $385,000. 6150 Desoto Dr, Colorado Springs, CO is a single family home that contains 1,578 sq ft and was built in 1987. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this house is $430,900, which has increased by $9,500 in the last 30 days. The Rent...
Does it feel like there is a big bubble sitting out there? Yes. Something doesn't feel 'right'. But loan requirements are notably more stringent than before, so the cheaper money isn't as easy to get. There is a definitive bubble sitting out in crypto, I'm not going to challenge that.
Some money is getting driven into the markets as well.
Im just glad everyone learned their lesson in 2008 and definitely wont be taking out massive equity loans on highly overvalued houses
I’m still waiting on my application for a 2.24% $140k HELOC to finish underwriting
(But actually going to use it towards house stuffs, albeit house 2 stuffs)
When we refinanced the lender kept asking if we were sure we didn't want to take any cash out. Our loan was $215kish and the appraisal came back at like $475k. Nope, just getting rid of the second and reducing the payment, thanks.
Same. I was (but really wasn't) surprised.
I normally pay all my closing costs out of pocket. Long-term it's cheaper than wrapping it up in the loan. We just refinanced to 2.5% fixed. It was cheaper/more efficient to wrap it up and take the ~$2500 cash and drop it into the investment account. That's ridiculous.
You are in a very different spot than most though. Most people who are taking out large HELOCs etc don't have effectively fire-proof, high income jobs and aren't smart how they use it.
But god is fake
debt is god
western union is his nickname
Sounds like somebody's about to update their personal capital.......
daily, after my morning constitutional
trim the waste
sound planning
sound planning
based on current comps our house is up at least $100k in value from the time we bought it 8 years ago.
even though I negotiated a great price well below value, my place has almost doubled since I bought it 4 years ago.
we paid $350k. my 450 estimate is conservative. there was a similar, but slightly smaller house (that is not in as good of condition) in our neighborhood that just sold. asking price was $450, sold for $490 and wasn't even on the market a full day.
My brother and sister-in-law closed on a place couple weeks back just east of city park. 640k and it's tiny.
You must live in the bad side of JacksonWe are up about $900,000 from when we bought in ‘13...on paper.
this can’t be real, can it?
Trust me, I do.
Even FT commented that he was entering the ‘low rent’ side of town.
Even FT commented that he was entering the ‘low rent’ side of town.
Holy fuck, the avacodos I bought three days ago for two bucks a pop are 3.25 now!!
Shit, do I cash out or enjoy the dip?
*white people fidgety motions*
Shit, do I cash out or enjoy the dip?
*white people fidgety motions*
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