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More real estate doom and gloom

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
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The old timey times
The factors driving this aren't the same as what drove the last one. This may just be the new normal. Cities with strong centralized gov'ts are the only places I've seen short term rental/airbnb zoning go into place so that's not going to change. And people with fuck off money will have no reason to buy again........so it's really just the investment arm that would have to collapse out of the range of new buyers driving this thing. Certainly possible, with lots of foreclosures but it won't be the same magnitude of what happened in 08 I don't think.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
14,497
5,498
In the cleavage of the Tetons
This is fucking nuts (and a sign of the impending collapse), the Zillow rental estimate for our house in JH is $12,500 a MONTH, and the ‘zestimate’ for the house is under by about $600,000.
(end dick-waving).
I think it’s bullshit.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
17,731
3,103
Colorado
We're currently in Boise/Meridian, ID. We've been in a house that has doubled in value to over $700k in the last 3yrs. We saw a listing flyer for a 3br, 2800sqft, relatively new build (7-8yrs), listed for $645.

We currently live in one of the highest demand cities in CO. Comparable houses are going for slightly less. New subdivisions are going up everywhere. Maybe I'm missing something, but last time I checked, Boise doesn't have the demand or population to support those levels of new build or price...
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
Boise doesn't have the demand or population to support those levels of new build or price...
Boise has the demand via new imports and the standard investment shit eating up dwellings.

Spomer, Deity, Grizz, all moved to boise......and those are just the people you know about from MTB stuff. Boise is the new Bend for CA, and the rental overlords follow...
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
What’s up with this rental eviction freeze ending? Sounds pretty terrible for a boatload of people.
couple millionaire reps had to go on vacation so they couldnt stick around to vote to extend it. Our fascist supreme court said theyd deny the president extending it again. Our president is an old senile man who didnt hire advisors smart enough to motivate congress to do anything before they go to hawaii.

So more cops are gonna kill more poor people now.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
44,833
10,482
Sleazattle
It was pretty terrible for land lords too. I got a guy that’s so coked to the gills not paying on a heavy industrial lot.

People have been selling rental properties here because of the increased risk. Rent for houses have gone up 20% in a year as a result.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
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The old timey times
People have been selling rental properties here because of the increased risk. Rent for houses have gone up 20% in a year as a result.
What risk? It ended yesterday. Warshington have their own or are they selling and just having to wait to kick tenants out? Is there really something outside of "my house is worth more than it's ever been by a long shot" like everywhere else?

Shit seems like business as normal here (as normal as this place can ever be). I know 4 people getting kicked out of their long term rentals. Only one of them seems to know they can tell the landlord to piss off until september via california moratorium. Of course the owner decided to sell exactly two weeks after they'd moved in so he's pissed and looking for leverage :rofl:
 
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Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
44,833
10,482
Sleazattle
What risk? It ended yesterday. Warshington have their own or are they selling and just having to wait to kick tenants out? Is there really something outside of "my house is worth more than it's ever been by a long shot" like everywhere else?

Shit seems like business as normal here (as normal as this place can ever be). I know 4 people getting kicked out of their long term rentals. Only one of them seems to know they can tell the landlord to piss off until september via california moratorium. Of course the owner decided to sell exactly two weeks after they'd moved in so he's pissed and looking for leverage :rofl:

One of the ways you could evict someone in the past year was to sell the property. So people who had tenants with expired leases who weren't paying often chose to sell. Others with paying tenants sold when there were vacancies fearing getting non paying tenants. So the supply of rental houses has gone down and prices went up. Rent seems to have actually gone down around here over the last 5 years. I don't think multi-unit rentals have changed much though.

The whole idea of a long term eviction moratorium was stupid in the first place. Just preventing the process from taking place without trying to fix the problem just allowed people to fall into deeper holes with no help to get out.

In Washington the moratorium is somewhat extended. People need to start paying regular rent now and have two months to work out a payment plan with their landlords/mortgage companies. People who got behind a bit but tried to maintain their payments might have a chance to work things out. People who completely gave up on paying for the last 18 months or haven't had their normal income for the last year are going to be screwed.
 
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junkyard

You might feel a little prick.
Sep 1, 2015
1,704
1,223
San Diego
One of the ways you could evict someone in the past year was to sell the property. So people who had tenants with expired leases who weren't paying often chose to sell. Others with paying tenants sold when there were vacancies fearing getting non paying tenants. So the supply of rental houses has gone down and prices went up. Rent seems to have actually gone down around here over the last 5 years. I don't think multi-unit rentals have changed much though.

The whole idea of a long term eviction moratorium was stupid in the first place. Just preventing the process from taking place without trying to fix the problem just allowed people to fall into deeper holes with no help to get out.

In Washington the moratorium is somewhat extended. People need to start paying regular rent now and have two months to work out a payment plan with their landlords/mortgage companies. People who got behind a bit but tried to maintain their payments might have a chance to work things out. People who completely gave up on paying for the last 18 months or haven't had their normal income for the last year are going to be screwed.
And who would rent to them after not paying? Evictions take 3-6 months just get to court pre pandemic. At least in my area and that’s commercial. Lawyers can buy you time then there is scheduling a sheriff lockout plus the tenants usually get a few weeks or a month to move out.. Now I don’t even want to think how slammed the system will be. I bet evictions could take a year.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
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The old timey times
One of the ways you could evict someone in the past year was to sell the property.
That actually explains a few situations I know of......

A buddy ended up sleeping in camper as a campground host after getting into, and kicked out of two different places over the last 15 months.

2008 lasted about 7 years, I can only imagine how much longer 2020 is going to last. There are a lot of things piling up around housing again that are creating a royal clusterfuck.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
44,833
10,482
Sleazattle
That actually explains a few situations I know of......

A buddy ended up sleeping in camper as a campground host after getting into, and kicked out of two different places over the last 15 months.

2008 lasted about 7 years, I can only imagine how much longer 2020 is going to last. There are a lot of things piling up around housing again that are creating a royal clusterfuck.

We should start to see mass boomer die off in 5-10 years.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
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The old timey times
yeah let's not forget that most of the people forming boomer ideas and recieving boomer money are youtubers in their 30s these days

hustle culture and the obsession with cryptocurrency are just as toxic to society as good ole fashioned 60's racism and gov't incentives for housing that none of them ever seem to want to acknowledge or continue.......
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
Things are pretty rough for the ole landlords. Really gotta feel for 'em




I suppose if they ain't gettin rent they could eat less avocado toast......maybe not buy things they can't afford

Maybe think twice about that morning starbucks trip. Someone should teach them the value of saving.
 

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
7,130
4,336
Crawlorado
yeah let's not forget that most of the people forming boomer ideas and recieving boomer money are youtubers in their 30s these days

hustle culture and the obsession with cryptocurrency are just as toxic to society as good ole fashioned 60's racism and gov't incentives for housing that none of them ever seem to want to acknowledge or continue.......
Ugh, this one kills me. On one hand, I get it, it feels like you have to hustle to get anywhere in life. Of course, no amount of hustling will convince any boomer they didn't have it harder/they worked for it too/privilege isn't real/they had a summer job to pay for college/houses were hard to buy back then too/any statistics showing how much harder things have become are meaningless cause it doesn't jive with their beliefs/they've succeeded based on their stellar work ethic and millenials are just entitled and lazy.

On the other hand, the whole hustle culture is just playing into the hands of our puppet masters who've helped break the system to the point that people need to hustle so hard, or hustle in the first place, to get ahead. Epic systemic failure.

Things are pretty rough for the ole landlords. Really gotta feel for 'em




I suppose if they ain't gettin rent they could eat less avocado toast......maybe not buy things they can't afford

Maybe think twice about that morning starbucks trip. Someone should teach them the value of saving.
Sounds like cities and towns nationwide should update their property tax calculations. Just think of how much good they could do with that revenue increase on 20% more valuable homes.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
Sounds like cities and towns nationwide should update their property tax calculations. Just think of how much good they could do with that revenue increase on 20% more valuable homes.
They'd just give it to cops so they can buy new toys and post stupid shit on facebook.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
13,243
4,998
AK
What’s up with this rental eviction freeze ending? Sounds pretty terrible for a boatload of people.
Yes, but if that doesn't happen, the market doesn't collapse and it just keeps chugging along in it's current mutant form. The market NEEDS to collapse and worse things need to happen to rebuild this IMO.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
13,243
4,998
AK
fuck the poors the in meantime
Do you see any other way out of it? Until the poors start "occupying" vacant Tahoe houses or burning down over-priced houses, I think a collapse is the only way it's going to reset.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
Deal with the underlying issues, not deny the bandaid for the symptom?

You do realize I'm not just talking about tahoe when I say this shit...... The homeless sweeps going on right now are disgusting.
 

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
7,130
4,336
Crawlorado
Do you see any other way out of it? Until the poors start "occupying" vacant Tahoe houses or burning down over-priced houses, I think a collapse is the only way it's going to reset.
There are other ways out, but they require too much time/political compromise to think they represent a realistic solution, especially given its a crisis of the poors.

A collapse is the most likely reset button, but also not a guarantee at this point.

Deal with the underlying issues, not deny the bandaid for the symptom?

You do realize I'm not just talking about tahoe when I say this shit...... The homeless sweeps going on right now are disgusting.
Are there any solutions available that aren't 5-10 years out, if at all? Most policy pieces I've read tend to lay blame on restrictive zoning laws and permitting costs required to build new housing. Even if both of those were somehow addressed today, builders would still focus on Mcmansions vs starter homes, since that seems to be where the money is made.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
28,880
5,549
The old timey times
Are there any solutions available that aren't 5-10 years out, if at all? Most policy pieces I've read tend to lay blame on restrictive zoning laws and permitting costs required to build new housing. Even if both of those were somehow addressed today, builders would still focus on Mcmansions vs starter homes, since that seems to be where the money is made.
Yeah it's funny to listen to developers whine about zoning. The problem with that logic is that we don't have a number of structures problem, at least not exclusively. The answer isn't just "build more." We have a consumption problem. You can build all the houses possible but the factors driving scarcity and stupid pricing are just going to gobble those up too.

It's definitely a zoning problem but not really the one they're whining about. Houses are being sold for investments, rentals, flipping, STRs/hotels, 9th homes, basically everything BUT actual housing.

The people framing the discussion as 'we just need to build more houses' are the ones that make money of building more houses. We blew up the supply in the mid 2000s and a lot of that stuff sits empty or is now a hotel, not on the market to house anyone.

Plus you're right, more mcbullshit is what they all focus on so that argument is even more fallacious. We need to de-commodditize a good portion of the housing supply.

In the meantime, shit like this is just stupid. An unused state owned building sitting empty by force.

They could have easily just setup a low cost rent/temporary work for housing program with those buildings.
 
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Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
13,243
4,998
AK
There are other ways out, but they require too much time/political compromise to think they represent a realistic solution, especially given its a crisis of the poors.

A collapse is the most likely reset button, but also not a guarantee at this point.



Are there any solutions available that aren't 5-10 years out, if at all? Most policy pieces I've read tend to lay blame on restrictive zoning laws and permitting costs required to build new housing. Even if both of those were somehow addressed today, builders would still focus on Mcmansions vs starter homes, since that seems to be where the money is made.
The further we go, the more wealth is preserved at the top, the more of a radical "solution" it will take to unseat this IMO.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
44,833
10,482
Sleazattle
The further we go, the more wealth is preserved at the top, the more of a radical "solution" it will take to unseat this IMO.

It doesn't have to be, just shift the tax burden to the people with all the money.

But of course the people with all the money own the people who decide who has to pay taxes. And more than half of americans don't want that to happen just in case they become billionaires tomorrow.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
44,833
10,482
Sleazattle
From a politcal perspective I for one encourage Californians moving to Idaho. We really just need a few hundred thousand of them to move to South Dakota and Wyoming.