Quantcast

More real estate doom and gloom

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
32,322
7,413
The old timey times
What has this world come to?

My wife and I are both federal employees and will retire in a few years with total (combined) pensions of around $10,000 a month. Our nest egg for retirement (TSP plus savings) will be another $2 million or so. Social Security will kick in on top of that.

1. that's no normal 'federal job'

2. please consider jumping into one of the lakes you seek with some of these concrete shoes we provide for free



Whitefish and Crested Butte are too remote :rofl:

I really do want to punch these people in the neck.


Lake Tahoe is congested and full of casinos and second homes.

That's right. Fuck off. Nevermind the casinos total like 4 these days and every 'mountaintown™" you're talking about is also second homes. Please continue to fuck off regardless.
 
Last edited:

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
48,004
13,376
Sleazattle
My wife and I are both federal employees and will retire in a few years with total (combined) pensions of around $10,000 a month. Our nest egg for retirement (TSP plus savings) will be another $2 million or so. Social Security will kick in on top of that.

1. that's no normal 'federal job'

2. please consider jumping into one of the lakes you seek with some of these concrete shoes we provide for free



Whitefish and Crested Butte are too remote :rofl:

I really do want to punch these people in the neck.


Lake Tahoe is congested and full of casinos and second homes.

That's right. Fuck off. Nevermind the casinos total like 4 these days and every 'mountaintown™" you're talking about is also second homes. Please continue to fuck off regardless.
I used to live near the National Ground Intelligence Center which paid significantly more than the average STEM jobs paid, tech bro money with gubment benefits. It shouldn't surprise you that about the only way to qualify for a job there was to work for a military contractor.
 

ebarker9

Monkey
Oct 2, 2007
636
96
Federal Employee Retirement System pension is 1% of average of high three salary years multiplied by number of years worked if retiring before the age of 62. At 62 it becomes 1.1%.

A $60k per person pension would be around a $136k salary for someone retiring after 40 years at the age of 62. Kind of in the GS13 range in moderate cost of living areas. GS13/GS14 is not atypical for STEM career fields, so that pension could be the result of shorter careers as well.

Not an average federal employee but probably around average to slightly above average for federal STEM employee depending on their location.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
15,102
6,525
AK
Federal Employee Retirement System pension is 1% of average of high three salary years multiplied by number of years worked if retiring before the age of 62. At 62 it becomes 1.1%.

A $60k per person pension would be around a $136k salary for someone retiring after 40 years at the age of 62. Kind of in the GS13 range in moderate cost of living areas. GS13/GS14 is not atypical for STEM career fields, so that pension could be the result of shorter careers as well.

Not an average federal employee but probably around average to slightly above average for federal STEM employee depending on their location.
Someone that is 62 may not last long on the slopes.

I'm thinking more like med doctor, or agency lawyer, or Senior Executive Schedule (SES). There were recently, and may still be, a very small number of GS15 positions.
 

ebarker9

Monkey
Oct 2, 2007
636
96
Someone that is 62 may not last long on the slopes.

I'm thinking more like med doctor, or agency lawyer, or Senior Executive Schedule (SES). There were recently, and may still be, a very small number of GS15 positions.
Possibly. If they were retiring at 57, which is generally the minimum, that would be more like $171k for high three which is close to the cap for GS15. A lot of places are doing broadband pay scales so you can make in that neighborhood without actually being a GS15. The other things that you mention are also possible and maybe more likely. I'd say doctor/lawyer more likely given how relatively few SES positions are out there. I'm less familiar with those pay scales but have seen VA positions for >$300k which is way more than you can make as a GS or even SES.

And, of course everyone's situation is different but $2M in TSP and general savings between two people retiring in those types of positions isn't really that much.
 

slyfink

Turbo Monkey
Sep 16, 2008
8,140
3,839
Ottawa, Canada
Vacant Homes Everywhere - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

"At a time when household units are forming faster than homes are being built and many Americans can’t find a home at all, it may come as a surprise that nearly one in 10 American homes — more than 16 million in all — were “vacant” when the 2020 census was recorded. In some states, the vacancy rate exceeded 20 percent. What can we make of these figures? A recent post by LendingTree attempts to parse the data by comparing vacancy rates in all 50 states, the basis of this week’s chart."
 
Last edited:

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
32,322
7,413
The old timey times
Vacant Homes Everywhere - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

"At a time when household units are forming faster than homes are being built and many Americans can’t find a home at all, it may come as a surprise that nearly one in 10 American homes — more than 16 million in all — were “vacant” when the 2020 census was recorded. In some states, the vacancy rate exceeded 20 percent. What can we make of these figures? A recent post by LendingTree attempts to parse the data by comparing vacancy rates in all 50 states, the basis of this week’s chart."
People really don't get this. The answer is always "wE gOtTa bUiLd mOrE hOuSes!!"

I've been saying it for years: We need to use houses for houses, not hotels or just other rich shit amenities. Building more won't change the problem.

"Only" 9% in california but that's 1.2 million houses......
 
Last edited:

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
32,322
7,413
The old timey times
It's interesting they claim that over the last 20 years (only 3 census cycles) the overall vacancy rate hasn't changed much. I'd love to see where it was before the 80s/90s real estate as trading commodity cultural shift.

I also have a hard time believing that it's still similar before the existence of airbnb and the like
 

slyfink

Turbo Monkey
Sep 16, 2008
8,140
3,839
Ottawa, Canada
People really don't get this. The answer is always "wE gOtTa bUiLd mOrE hOuSes!!"

I've been saying it for years: We need to use houses for houses, not hotels just other rich shit amenities. Building more won't change the problem.

"Only" 9% in california but that's 1.2 million houses......
I just had a lunch-time argument about this with my wife... not a good time to get into an argument. but this notion that housing is scarce and that is what's driving prices up is far too simplistic, imo.
 

slyfink

Turbo Monkey
Sep 16, 2008
8,140
3,839
Ottawa, Canada
It's interesting they claim that over the last 20 years (only 3 census cycles) the overall vacancy rate hasn't changed much. I'd love to see where it was before the 80s/90s real estate as trading commodity cultural shift.

I also have a hard time believing that it's still similar before the existence of airbnb and the like
I wonder if people lie on the census about air bnb type holdings so they don't get dinged for taxation...?
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
32,322
7,413
The old timey times
I wonder if people lie on the census about air bnb type holdings so they don't get dinged for taxation...?
I know this for a fact. They'll claim as kid's houses, dual primary residence etc. I've seen people brag about it online. Counties don't even know how many they have in a place like here, where it's absolutely a significant portion of homes.

The census data was kind of skewed in 2020 anyway because of trump and his citizenship BS. There's gotta be better source data or stuff that can fill in holes.

I mean there is a scarcity, but it's financial, not just numbers in a fair market.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
15,102
6,525
AK
I just had a lunch-time argument about this with my wife... not a good time to get into an argument. but this notion that housing is scarce and that is what's driving prices up is far too simplistic, imo.
Of course, because houses are built by companies that realize the bottom line for profit is the most important, so they are big craftsman mega-houses for people to invest and move into, giant 3000sq foot monstrosities, etc. Or, it's giant apartment complexes for the "working class", aka "gulag", so you can never really get a leg up and a "starter home", because there's not enough profit for everyone who's hands are in the cookie jars, developers, property owners, construction companies, contractors, etc. in a 1500sq foot home. So you basically have the choice of an apartment, or a trailer park...
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
48,004
13,376
Sleazattle
There is an empty house on my street. Some dude bought it in 2003, lived there for a year then moved to Tacoma. He let some old hippy store shit there until said hippy died last year. But for the most part the house has just sat unused and is falling into disrepair. Of course it is now worth 3 times what it was bought for but I have no idea why it just sits empty.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
48,004
13,376
Sleazattle
how's your front yard camper doing these days, Westy?
I evicted him last weekend. When he wandered off to presumably get more fentanyl I installed 5 elevated planter boxes leaving no room for a tent. Part of me felt bad but the neighbors had reached out to 3 different aid organizations. Each one was familar with the individual and have tried to help him in the past and all offers were refused and they had no interest in trying again.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
11,152
7,982
There is an empty house on my street. Some dude bought it in 2003, lived there for a year then moved to Tacoma. He let some old hippy store shit there until said hippy died last year. But for the most part the house has just sat unused and is falling into disrepair. Of course it is now worth 3 times what it was bought for but I have no idea why it just sits empty.
My wife and I moved into our house 5 1/2 years ago, there's a house two along from us that has been empty that entire time. Which confuses me given the rent that could have been earned alongside the property value increases.

There was a piece on 60 minutes last night about the Corps who are just buying homes in certain areas and then renting them out pushing up rents in the area massively.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
33,346
4,732
I evicted him last weekend. When he wandered off to presumably get more fentanyl I installed 5 elevated planter boxes leaving no room for a tent. Part of me felt bad but the neighbors had reached out to 3 different aid organizations. Each one was familar with the individual and have tried to help him in the past and all offers were refused and they had no interest in trying again.
I recalled the planter installation. Just wondering if he moved to your stoop or on top of the carport or the like.