More real estate doom and gloom
- Thread starter Toshi
- Start date
They're all over this thread. You're just choosing to ignore them and actually have the gall to say people shouldn't be paid more because rents are so expensive it wouldn't do any good anyway. Like, you really just did that.
Nick literally just posted something before all this babble: tax the fuck out of non primary residences to disincentivize the process. I've said ban STRs probably a hundred times in this thread.
Raising minimum wage rates to ABOVE that living wage line.
Force places like WP to subsidize housing that THEY DON'T MANAGE and so can't renig on the intent.
There's a pretty common sentiment here growing in popularity. It goes something like: if you can't afford to pay your employees to live in the place where you need them to work, then your business model is shit, and you need to fail.
"Denver Radiologist who owns property he doesn't live in, in the exact area in question, thinks everything is fine and the corporation that may have caused any problems can be trusted to fix them"
You have a vested interest in ignoring real solutions because it would mean you lose amenities. So you gloss over them and call them 'hot air'
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If Grand County banned STRs then I'd just not rent it out. And there'd be even less housing-days available, and potential renters would crowd out even more possible workers at hotels or whatever's left at that point.
Summit has been aggressive about trying to regulate STRs. But the STR stock does not seem to overlap much with worker housing from my perspective, unless groups of 8 people or whatever band together to rent a house for the season.
What I said re $25/hr was that it still wouldn't fix things because rentals are unavailable. Your projection was the rest of that--go back and read what I wrote.
Anyway, let me try and collate your ideas, went back through Feb 23rd:
Summit has been aggressive about trying to regulate STRs. But the STR stock does not seem to overlap much with worker housing from my perspective, unless groups of 8 people or whatever band together to rent a house for the season.
What I said re $25/hr was that it still wouldn't fix things because rentals are unavailable. Your projection was the rest of that--go back and read what I wrote.
Anyway, let me try and collate your ideas, went back through Feb 23rd:
ok. not actionable.
Show me incentives to make it a rational decision to me to rent my house to a local year round. Otherwise not actionable/not rational.
also handwaving.
In NZ the living wage means a wage that ‘allows you to live with dignity’. Like it’s supposed to mean you have enough money for leisure and to have personal growth opportunities. I don’t know if that’s the same from what you’re discussing but it kinda doesn’t sound like it. It’s just about to go up to NZ$26 an hour. I have to say that’s not a lot IMO. I certainly wouldn’t want to live on that.
Living Wage Movement Aotearoa New Zealand
www.livingwage.org.nz
Literally every single individual point you make here is wrong. Like flat out wrong.
"STRs don't affect rentals and housing"
JFC......
Almost a full quarter of all homes sold last year were purchased by corporate landlords as investment vehicles. There will be NO affordable housing in resort towns so long as AirBNB and Vacasa operate in the county.
I know a guy here in town. Super nice guy in fact, owns a successful business, ripping fast rider too. His real estate port is approaching 1200 properties. Twelve Fucking Hundred. Is he filthy rich? Yes. Congrats, you won capitalism. But those 1200 properties won't ever be homes to families, just short term (in the grand scheme) places to live. Tax the fuck out of property #3 thru 1,200 so that can't happen any more.
I think I might have read it in this thread or somewhere but it really sums up the issue nicely ... "landlords provide housing the same way scalpers provide tickets".
I know a guy here in town. Super nice guy in fact, owns a successful business, ripping fast rider too. His real estate port is approaching 1200 properties. Twelve Fucking Hundred. Is he filthy rich? Yes. Congrats, you won capitalism. But those 1200 properties won't ever be homes to families, just short term (in the grand scheme) places to live. Tax the fuck out of property #3 thru 1,200 so that can't happen any more.
I think I might have read it in this thread or somewhere but it really sums up the issue nicely ... "landlords provide housing the same way scalpers provide tickets".
Yeah but toshi doesn't FEEL like STRs affect available long term rentals. He doesn't FEEL like there are things like deed restrictions that dictate who a home can be sold to (IE people using them as a primary residence and not a VC firm).
And actually an STR ban would only hurt rentals. Because babble babble reasons™
So I mean really, all this is just hot air because toshi can't be bothered to actually give it any thought. I mean that's what gut reactions are for amirite?
But are these corporate owned properties being used as STRs? This seems to conflate two things. AirBNB and Vacasa are just the platforms anyway, not the owners (maybe they own some directly).
Again, you with a lack of reading comprehension. I said that I'd not rent out if STRs were banned, and that'd reduce housing stock. On an aggregate level, yes, I think many would throw in the towel and return to renting long term... which also doesn't solve the issue of needing cheap, seasonal housing around seasonal industry.
Ultimately if enough apartments or whatever are built that there's not a shortage then it wouldn't be hoarded. Make it a commodity. Build all of the units.
Re taxing non-primary residences, they already don't get the (now meager thanks to the larger standard deduction) tax benefits that primary residences would do. Are you (Nick in particular) proposing some new windfall tax on them? What about people who own, say, REITs? I don't think it's a tenable idea.
Not getting a mortgage deduction, a tax break, is not the same as paying an increased tax. Opposite really.
Yes, I am. Maybe even an escalating tax for the Blackrocks of the world who 'could' carry the burden of another cost for longer than most. And, unwind all REITs other than mortgage backed securities. I mean, those worked out so well in 2008.
It's not fair to say it's not tenable if we haven't tried really anything.
Shouldn't we tax the fuck out of property #2 thru 1,200?
Then again, I have no interest in ever owning more than one property...
Breckenridge does this well, IMO. I knew a couple who lived and worked in town full time. They bought their very nice house, which realized a controlled appreciation, and when they sold to move to CB they sold it back into the controlled pool for another couple like them to buy. Fair return on their investment, everyone wins.
in theory, but I don't think the 2nd house to an individual is the same impact as the 500th house to an investor/landlord.
I like this idea but for the practicalities of how it's implemented for houses not restricted now wrt ones grandfathered in, whether it's houses in a certain neighborhood, etc.
It's almost like we're recognizing that housing is a public good. But we won't fund public development of housing—denigrate it as the projects or not—and instead do these weird measures that shift the financial burden kinda capriciously onto the property owners.
Let's say this is implemented through property taxes. Something tied to the location and the owner.
Would I "deserve" a higher tax rate if I didn't rent out my house when not using it? Or if I did?
What if I was a single mother and managing this 2nd house as a STR was my primary source of income? What if managing a fleet of 5 houses was my primary source of income? What if said single mother used a management company but the proceeds were still how she got by? What if she were a radiologist herself? Should government be judging the morality of said property ownership?
What if the company holding 1200 houses were broken up into 1200 separate LLCs instead, each holding 1?
I get your point about nothing really having been tried besides piecemeal things in Summit that are different depending on Breckenridge neighborhood, whether's one in a named city or unincorporated county, etc. From my perspective holding the mortgage I'm glad in in Grand County: had to pay a per-beds-rentable annual fee for a permit but otherwise unrestricted.
What exactly do you think "long term renting" is? A 6 month season counts. It's how I rented the first two places I lived in when I moved here. They're called "ski leases" or "summer leases". They're all better than single weekend occupancy which is what replaced them all. Short term rental means short.
My reading comprehension is fine. I talked about an STR ban and you just stated what YOU would do, completely unaware of the entire model that exists where people buy houses they can't afford, and then use STRs to cover an exorbitant mortgage. I can find you plenty of references to this. I don't give a shit about your personal house if you can afford it. I'm telling you how the cancer works. You just don't know it, so assume I can't read.
I'm not offended, I want clueless property buyers to be aware of reality. That's not offense on my part, that's a campaign to point out how stupid and naive most of the shit you believe is. Because I'll say it again: I'm surrounded by thousands of you, literally all saying the same very wrong things. Always from somewhere else. Always with a vested interest in not legitimately improving things. I know how this works.
Building can be PART of a solution but to believe it will completely erradicate what these destination areas have become, demonstrates a lack of familiarity with what's happening.
I linked earlier in this thread how developers get plans approved, say it's going to be affordable housing to shut people up, then bait and switch for "luxury dwellings". The deed restrictions prevent that.
STRs literally ate my town. About 50% of the housing is now hotels. So I'm not going to sit here and listen to someone say "better things are not possible" for the zillionth time just because they refuse to challenge a few very recently created circumstances, like the existence of STRs. There was a world before them not too long ago. It was better.
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The Effect of Home-Sharing on House Prices and Rents: Evidence from Airbnb
We assess the impact of home-sharing on residential house prices and rents. Using a dataset of Airbnb listings from the entire United States and an instrumental
papers.ssrn.com
Gah. Exempting mountain towns is 100% lobbying, 0% sense.
www.cpr.org
Ski towns could be exempted from controversial land-use bill as Democrats try to clear path
The original proposal would have required towns like Vail, Aspen and other high-country resort areas to allow denser development in all residential zones and along transportation corridors.
www.cpr.org
That abstract literally states that airbnbs raise home prices. And now concentrate that with a much higher percentage than whatever urban average they factored in, AND what's percieved as a place to take your vacation..... WTF you think winter park feels the need to now build performative housing for? STRs are a huge component of that.The Effect of Home-Sharing on House Prices and Rents: Evidence from Airbnb
We assess the impact of home-sharing on residential house prices and rents. Using a dataset of Airbnb listings from the entire United States and an instrumentalpapers.ssrn.com
2017 is just when this shit was taking off for realz after the 2015ish economic recovery and getting a stronghold. And "house sharing" is not full time airbnb rentals. That's cool finding a research paper that looks at not at all what STRs are in MOUNTAIN TOWNS specifically, but what happens in the places we're talking about is VASTLY different.
It's half my damn town. Not 1 percent, not 10 percent. It's 47% of just airbnb and vrbo alone, which doesn't even account for all the other halfwit imitators, of which there are several. And this is a bit of a residential holdout, it's far worse in other neighborhoods. I've been watching this shit happen for the last 10 years or so. You are just now even starting to think about it. And I'm using 'think' very liberally here.
Yeah man STRs have nothing significant to do with it. Just 9 bucks a month. That's all. Can't believe all these people leave over 9 bucks.
Why Tahoe's workforce is vanishing
The hiring crisis is reverberating across the region.
The only thing that changed here between 2014 and now is that STRs went through the roof. Reddit, facebook, instagram, twitter, literally every single social page has been packed with stories of people losing their rentals because the landlord was converting it an airbnb and they're looking for a place to live for the past 10 years. Coincidence I'm sure. I have no doubt that every former town along the I70 corridor (which includes WP and the Fraser Valley) is the same thing.
Correct. Now you're starting to see how this works.....Gah. Exempting mountain towns is 100% lobbying, 0% sense.
Ski towns could be exempted from controversial land-use bill as Democrats try to clear path
The original proposal would have required towns like Vail, Aspen and other high-country resort areas to allow denser development in all residential zones and along transportation corridors.
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What should my spraypaint tag be this summer?
There's a glass repair place by my office I can use as a resource. Imma start dropping piles of broken tempered glass in the driveways of all the most used airbnbs.
When I'm walking my dog and I see 9 cars obviously overpacking one, I already tell them to make sure to lock their doors at night. Lots of crime. Lots of bears.
Seriously, Teton Valley Idaho house prices went up by hundreds of thousands on average, and it no coincidence there are now about 1000 STR’s that have been consistently losing money this last year, and are sitting empty. Suckers.
I thought I read somewhere that some of the corporations investing in residential real estate were leaving the industry but I can't find it now.
Unfortunately our version of capitalism will never allow the rich to pay their fair share, and STRs are here to stay.
But I agree, tax the fuck out of anyone's 3rd or more house.
Make corporations pay their fair share so the social safety net can be more robust.
What we really need is a /////billionaire investor* to buy out all the millionaire investors and redistribute the houses or...
*How come rethuglicans got umpteen evil billionaire benefactors, and we got to get by with one old Jew** (Soros)
**NTTAWWT
BUT I really just chimed in to say Woo needs to increase his meds (no kink shaming mental health issues) because while Toshi is in fact a 2nd home owner and aspiring STR robber baron he's still one of us
The belligerency of your arguments however well intentioned do little to win anyone over to your side.
Living in a tourist town sucks, but living in Kansas sucks more.
Always look on the bright side of life
relevantmagazine.com
www.christianheadlines.com
ETA: Christ would've canceled the debts of the nonbelievers too
Unfortunately our version of capitalism will never allow the rich to pay their fair share, and STRs are here to stay.
But I agree, tax the fuck out of anyone's 3rd or more house.
Make corporations pay their fair share so the social safety net can be more robust.
What we really need is a /////billionaire investor* to buy out all the millionaire investors and redistribute the houses or...
*How come rethuglicans got umpteen evil billionaire benefactors, and we got to get by with one old Jew** (Soros)
**NTTAWWT
BUT I really just chimed in to say Woo needs to increase his meds (no kink shaming mental health issues) because while Toshi is in fact a 2nd home owner and aspiring STR robber baron he's still one of us
The belligerency of your arguments however well intentioned do little to win anyone over to your side.
Living in a tourist town sucks, but living in Kansas sucks more.
Always look on the bright side of life
A Nebraska Church Raised Over Half a Million Dollars to Pay Off Medical Debt of 500 Households - RELEVANT
A Nebraska church has raised $550,000 to pay off the medical bills of local residents. First-Plymouth Congregational Church of Lincoln received donations
relevantmagazine.com
Church Cancels $3 Million in Medical Debt of 3,355 Families to Demonstrate Christ’s Love
The congregation raised $15,047 as part of its Debt Jubilee Project and then worked with RIP Medical Debt, a nonprofit organization that helps cancel medical debt.
www.christianheadlines.com
ETA: Christ would've canceled the debts of the nonbelievers too
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You thinking of when zillow lost all that money buying houses in the inital covid buying frenzy?
Zillow, facing big losses, quits flipping houses and will lay off a quarter of its staff. (Published 2021)
The real estate website had been relying on its algorithm that estimates home values to buy and resell homes. That part of its business lost about $420 million in three months.
That honestly is somewhat minor considering all the other players that aren't as high profile. But if you can find anything showing it's some larger scale trend, by all means share. It would brighten my day.
Do you think denver concerns themselves with what granby colorado thinks about the mile high city and how it should be shaped? Of course not. Yet denver gets to shape what happens up there. And anyone who points out the problems with that gets dismissed with head patting and condescension. We'll just build some company housing...there there.BUT I really just chimed in to say Woo needs to increase his meds (no kink shaming mental health issues) because while Toshi is in fact a 2nd home owner and aspiring STR robber baron he's still one of us
The belligerency of your arguments however well intentioned do little to win anyone over to your side.
I don't think I can possibly convey how utterly fed up I am with listening to this same bullshit over and over again.
"well you're the one who moved to a tourist town"
No I moved to a mountain town with a significant tourism component, that is now a 24/7 party palace for douchebags. Ones who at one point in time had to deal with the hardships of coming here, whereas now, their 'services' are provided on a convenient silver platter.......at the expense of everyone else. There's no 'town' left. What I moved to was one.
"My STRs provide jobs that allow local economies to exist"
There are now fewer jobs, and way fewer full time jobs than there were 10 years ago. These towns are over a hundred years old. Airbnb was created in 2008, and NOT as a full time rental mechanism.
"We just need to build more"
Without restrictions on how that new building is sold and used, the same vultures just eat that up too.
There's not a day that goes by I don't have to listen to some form of this shit....truly. I don't give a flying fuck who I win over. I want to chase them out screaming.
Because no matter how many may be 'won over' there will always be some new dumbass who also has never bothered to think about long term impacts right behind them. I want yelp reviews full of fear and horror because that spreads way faster
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After 3 years, $338M Renton office complex mostly empty, to be auctioned
The pending auction of an ambitious office campus in Renton is another red flag for an office market battered by COVID, remote work and higher interest rates.
www.seattletimes.com
How again is this an argument against the Winter Park worker housing, other than you innately don’t like Alterra? I’ll eat my hat if they convert it to non-worker uses, but that doesn’t seem likely. Since they need it and all.
Its not and it wasnt meant to be. Unless they change course which vail has done.
Its more part of a larger commentary on how non-holistic baindaids fail.
You really shouldnt be surprised if those are non-employee condos in 5 years. Northstar did that with their "employee housing" in a mere two.
The problem and solution are clear. It’s tourists/tourism, mother fuckers be vacationing too much. If they weren’t there wouldn’t be all these STR and there would be more cheaper homes for us to have second homes.
how can you bitch that there are no long term rentals without excepting there will be landlords or gasp investors. People to need to rent sometimes and that’s a tale as old as time.
In ‘97 I went to mammoth with some friends and we rented a condo. We had a great time. So rentals arnt a new thing but it wasn’t a house.
In ‘02 me and my buddy were driving around Australia and went to this underground cavern. We got there and it was like in a horror movie. Nobody in sight anywhere. Big hotel, hostel but just nobody. Eventually we found a girl in the kitchen. Seems every guest was on a cave tour and all staff were on break. We slept in the park that night then the hotel gave us the big suite so we weren’t trashin up the place. Anyways all the workers stayed in worker’s quarters that were hidden because there was no where else. We got to check it out and smoke some weed with a cute worker.
I just wanted to share my stories.
The internet ruined the world by making things too easy for every fucking idiot with two bucks in their pocket or a credit card to add dept to. the cats out of the bag and no one can catch it without shooting it. @kidwoo wants to shoot it, most just want to marvel at its destructive behavior because shooting it is cruel.
I want a condo in mammoth and I wouldn’t rent it out at all. I’m part of the problem but I don’t believe in SFH as a business model. But how else is someone supposed to grow wealth? Can’t deny people that desire. But your supposed to graduate to commercial real estate.
how can you bitch that there are no long term rentals without excepting there will be landlords or gasp investors. People to need to rent sometimes and that’s a tale as old as time.
In ‘97 I went to mammoth with some friends and we rented a condo. We had a great time. So rentals arnt a new thing but it wasn’t a house.
In ‘02 me and my buddy were driving around Australia and went to this underground cavern. We got there and it was like in a horror movie. Nobody in sight anywhere. Big hotel, hostel but just nobody. Eventually we found a girl in the kitchen. Seems every guest was on a cave tour and all staff were on break. We slept in the park that night then the hotel gave us the big suite so we weren’t trashin up the place. Anyways all the workers stayed in worker’s quarters that were hidden because there was no where else. We got to check it out and smoke some weed with a cute worker.
I just wanted to share my stories.
The internet ruined the world by making things too easy for every fucking idiot with two bucks in their pocket or a credit card to add dept to. the cats out of the bag and no one can catch it without shooting it. @kidwoo wants to shoot it, most just want to marvel at its destructive behavior because shooting it is cruel.
I want a condo in mammoth and I wouldn’t rent it out at all. I’m part of the problem but I don’t believe in SFH as a business model. But how else is someone supposed to grow wealth? Can’t deny people that desire. But your supposed to graduate to commercial real estate.
I'd be happy just enforcing residential zoning as residential zoning at this point. A third of my block is full time hotels.
A lot of mammoth was built to be lodging. I have no issue with that. The problem is it moved beyond that and ate up the neighborhoods, just like everywhere else.
A lot of mammoth was built to be lodging. I have no issue with that. The problem is it moved beyond that and ate up the neighborhoods, just like everywhere else.
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im thinking most of us agree with that.
However, there never really were long standing ‘neighborhoods’ in Mammoth, from what the history indicates .
Not a judgement, just an observation.
Kind of like Vail, there was no ‘there’ there until the 60’s.
Not a judgement, just an observation.
Mammoth Lakes History
Built from a colorful history, Mammoth Lakes is now a year-round destination for adventurers and sightseers from across the globe. From the birth of the Sierra …
digital.milespartnership.com
Kind of like Vail, there was no ‘there’ there until the 60’s.
There's an old townsite and homes that were there before the ski area It's not a lot but there was something there.However, there never really were long standing ‘neighborhoods’ in Mammoth, from what the history indicates .
Not a judgement, just an observation.
Mammoth Lakes History
Built from a colorful history, Mammoth Lakes is now a year-round destination for adventurers and sightseers from across the globe. From the birth of the Sierra …digital.milespartnership.com
Kind of like Vail, there was no ‘there’ there until the 60’s.
This part
Have you ever been there? Most of what's on that map is residential full time houses, neighborhoods, and apartments.
People lived full time in all of the above before short term rentals. They built up a town for people to live in, close to where they work. Just like every other city and town. Boomed with the ski area etc or not, there's still a very big difference between a residence and a rental. All the homes built for residences are now rentals. Just because tourism is the primary reason the town is there doesn't mean people need to be kicked and made to drive hours to work at their job.
But I can't imagine that place was very liveable in the winter without somewhat modern snow removal equipment.
From what I know about vail it was just an exit with a gas station before the ski area. Like it literally got built in conjunction with the ski area. A hell of a lot easier to live nearby vail and work there too. Not price-wise now, but just in terms of distance.
I do get a similar creepy vibe from both but vail is way more sterile and weird.
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Speaking of Vail:
an oldie but a goodie
14:48
$425 employee parking pass.......fuck these people
Vail employees gotta *pay* to park at work?