[DRB]

Although, with us having already invaded Iraq and rattling the sabres with Iran, I'm not surprised that the third member of the "axis of evil" would want to have their bases covered. The case could be made by them that their nuclear capabilities are what has saved them from us taking a harder line stance against them.

How could that case be made?

Let's see, due to their shooting off a nuc (or at least attempting to or maybe even attempting to fake one) they are about to get a whole sh!t pot of sanctions with their supposed "supporters" turning against them as quick as they can.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

How could that case be made?

Let's see, due to their shooting off a nuc (or at least attempting to or maybe even attempting to fake one) they are about to get a whole sh!t pot of sanctions with their supposed "supporters" turning against them as quick as they can.

Well, we'll have to see if that happens.

They aren't stupid though. They watch the news. They see us talking about how we have to go into Iran before they are nuclear capable, because they know that we don't want to face a nuclear Iran. They see the way that we coddle Pakistan, largely because they are already a nuclear power. If they go nuclear, it's a pretty safe way for them to keep from getting invaded.

 

[Kevin]

Well, we'll have to see if that happens.

They aren't stupid though. They watch the news. They see us talking about how we have to go into Iran before they are nuclear capable, because they know that we don't want to face a nuclear Iran. They see the way that we coddle Pakistan, largely because they are already a nuclear power. If they go nuclear, it's a pretty safe way for them to keep from getting invaded.

Yeah or maybee Kim Jong Il is just a complete retard...

 

[Old Man G Funk]

Yeah or maybee Kim Jong Il is just a complete retard...

I doubt that's the case. He might be mistaken in his interpretation of the geopolitical situation and acting in a way that history will deem to be a huge mistake, but I don't think he's all that dumb.

Edit: He's probably smarter than Bush.

 

[DRB]

I doubt that's the case. He might be mistaken in his interpretation of the geopolitical situation and acting in a way that history will deem to be a huge mistake, but I don't think he's all that dumb.

Edit: He's probably smarter than Bush.

And Kim isn't a Christian so that's another point for him.

 

[Kevin]

I just find it hard to believe that he fears the U.S. so much that he completely ignores China, Russia and the rest of the world.
Bush is a dumb **** but at least he has some people that think for him. Not to say I like the thinking they do, but at least they are not as dumb as Bush is so Ill trust them more with nukular weapons then Kim Jong Il.

With this test he has definitly proven hes uncaipable of rational thinking and Im really glad he doesnt have the means to deliver it.
So far the only victims are the N Korean civillians and unless someone interferes (preferably not the US) all we can do is hope it doesnt get worse.

 

[Silver]

And Kim isn't a Christian so that's another point for him.

Between Bush and Kim only one of them has an invisible friend.

And we think Kim is the crazy one...

 

[Old Man G Funk]

And Kim isn't a Christian so that's another point for him.

Another point? I don't remember there being a first point? Also, this is completely out of line. You are letting your emotions trump your reason/logic.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

I just find it hard to believe that he fears the U.S. so much that he completely ignores China, Russia and the rest of the world.

I would say that he's probably betting that they will be as impotent in dealing with this as we are, and things will return to normal, only he's got a trump card now.

Like I said, we'll have to see if this turns out to be a mistake on his part or not.

Bush is a dumb **** but at least he has some people that think for him. Not to say I like the thinking they do, but at least they are not as dumb as Bush is so Ill trust them more with nukular weapons then Kim Jong Il.

No doubt, I don't trust KJI one bit. Him having nuclear weapons is certainly a dangerous situation. He's power hungry and willing to do anything to hold onto that power. That makes him dangerous. It doesn't necessarily mean that he is stupid however.

With this test he has definitly proven hes uncaipable of rational thinking and Im really glad he doesnt have the means to deliver it.
So far the only victims are the N Korean civillians and unless someone interferes (preferably not the US) all we can do is hope it doesnt get worse.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he simply made a mistake in predicting the future outcome. Maybe he is insane. Maybe he is stupid. I could be completely wrong about that and he might be some idiot that has no idea what is going on in the world around him. I'm sure we'll find out in the coming years.

 

[DRB]

Another point? I don't remember there being a first point? Also, this is completely out of line. You are letting your emotions trump your reason/logic.

Edit: He's probably smarter than Bush.

That was one. Him not being a Christian would be two.

Hey maybe you can talk Kim into running for president here.

 

[Kevin]

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he simply made a mistake in predicting the future outcome.

I understand your point of view, we as outsiders probably dont have the proper information to judge this but with the information at hand that is just my 2cents on it.
However, SK have allready announced that they will probably do a second test depending on the results of the first one.
Seems to me they wouldnt do that if they didnt expect China and Russia to react the way they did after the first test.
But yeah, time will tell.

 

[valve bouncer]

So lets say China says "OK, you guys can have your wicked way with NK, we'll look the other way, just as long as you look the other way when we (insert scenario most likely involving Taiwan here)". China must be loving this, they hold all the cards. I mean they're really he only reason that Kim doesn't have a dirty great guided missile shoved up his clacker with "luv from George" written on it.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

That was one. Him not being a Christian would be two.

Hey maybe you can talk Kim into running for president here.

Dude, you might want to get back on the meds.

Being smarter than Bush isn't saying a whole lot.

Also, note that discussing the relative intelligence of Kim Jong Il vs. Bush and discussing the geopolitical reality of the world is neither supporting Kim Jong Il nor is it bashing America. You might want to brush up on your logic/reasoning before you embarrass yourself again.

 

[DRB]

So lets say China says "OK, you guys can have your wicked way with NK, we'll look the other way, just as long as you look the other way when we (insert scenario most likely involving Taiwan here)". China must be loving this, they hold all the cards. I mean they're really he only reason that Kim doesn't have a dirty great guided missile shoved up his clacker with "luv from George" written on it.

I hadn't thought of that, but is a NK for Taiwan trade all that good of a deal?

I think China is getting worried that all of a sudden the NK citizenery is going to decide a swim across the Yalu might not be such a bad deal. So to some extent China isn't quite holding all the cards.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

I understand your point of view, we as outsiders probably dont have the proper information to judge this but with the information at hand that is just my 2cents on it.

I too think that this could turn out to be a blunder, but I'm wary of jumping to that conclusion, or jumping to the conclusion that KJI is stupid because of it. I think it is dangerous to make that assumption.

However, SK have allready announced that they will probably do a second test depending on the results of the first one.
Seems to me they wouldnt do that if they didnt expect China and Russia to react the way they did after the first test.
But yeah, time will tell.

Hopefully we will be able to quell this without having to fight, and without nukes being detonated on anyone. As VB points out, China holds a lot of the cards here, and it will be very dependent on how they play it.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

I hadn't thought of that, but is a NK for Taiwan trade all that good of a deal?

I think China is getting worried that all of a sudden the NK citizenery is going to decide a swim across the Yalu might not be such a bad deal. So to some extent China isn't quite holding all the cards.

The NK citizenry are already crossing the border into China at much higher rates than China cares for.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Just cuz NK says they tested a nuke don't make it a reality.

 

[valve bouncer]

I hadn't thought of that, but is a NK for Taiwan trade all that good of a deal?

I think China is getting worried that all of a sudden the NK citizenery is going to decide a swim across the Yalu might not be such a bad deal. So to some extent China isn't quite holding all the cards.

I don't think that's of real concern to them, they can just ship them on to SK who will take them. The only concern for them now is anything that'll slow down their economic juggernaut.

 

[DRB]

The NK citizenry are already crossing the border into China at much higher rates than China cares for.

but not really enough for them to react in anyway other than policing the border and of course not being nice to the "refugees" from NK.

Now with any meaningful sanctions and winter coming on that number is going to go up.... significantly.

And it leaves China without as much power as they previously held or claimed to hold over North Korea. Twice in a year Kim has basically thumbed his nose at the Chinese and more specifically Hu Jintao . First in regards to missile testing and now this. This is even more troubling as it was done in conjuction with the beginning of the Central Committee plenum. This is a key time for Hu as he starts to consolidate his power leading into the Party Congress to be held next year. Having Kim running around isn't helping Hu.

All this is in stark contrast to conditions a year ago when the US signed the deal at the insistance of China. The subsequent sanctions made the US look even worse. The US internally was at war in regards to NK policy. The world looked to China as being able to control Kim and the US as having no real clue of what to do or how to do it..... NOW...

Couple these things with China seeking further ties with the Japanese, the Chinese room to maneuver with NK has been substanially reduced.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I miss the days of tanks rolling over students.... good times.....good times....

 

[Old Man G Funk]

but not really enough for them to react in anyway other than policing the border and of course not being nice to the "refugees" from NK.

Now with any meaningful sanctions and winter coming on that number is going to go up.... significantly.

True that. Although they could go the route of shipping them off to SK (again as VB pointed out.) Either way, China is not looking to have any more refugees cross the border, and actions which increase that could very well sour relations between China and NK.

And it leaves China without as much power as they previously held or claimed to hold over North Korea. Twice in a year Kim has basically thumbed his nose at the Chinese and more specifically Hu Jintao . First in regards to missile testing and now this. This is even more troubling as it was done in conjuction with the beginning of the Central Committee plenum. This is a key time for Hu as he starts to consolidate his power leading into the Party Congress to be held next year. Having Kim running around isn't helping Hu.

All this is in stark contrast to conditions a year ago when the US signed the deal at the insistance of China. The subsequent sanctions made the US look even worse. The US internally was at war in regards to NK policy. The world looked to China as being able to control Kim and the US as having no real clue of what to do or how to do it..... NOW...

Couple these things with China seeking further ties with the Japanese, the Chinese room to maneuver with NK has been substanially reduced.

They still hold a lot of cards, however.

I'm glad to see that you've calmed down a bit. This discussion is much more interesting when you bring your knowledge to the table.

 

[DRB]

True that. Although they could go the route of shipping them off to SK (again as VB pointed out.) Either way, China is not looking to have any more refugees cross the border, and actions which increase that could very well sour relations between China and NK.

Its much more difficult if not impossible for any sizeable numbers of folks to get across the DMZ.

They still hold a lot of cards, however.

I think that this shows that the Chinese don't hold the cards that they thought they did.

And looky here what Yonhap is reporting:

NORTH Korea has warned it could fire a missile with a nuclear warhead unless the US acts to resolve its standoff with the world's newest nuclear power.

Pyongyang drew international condemnation yesterday for what it said was its first nuclear weapons test, carried out in defiance of UN warnings.

In a report sure to send more shivers around the globe, the South Korean news agency Yonhap today quoted an unnamed North Korean official as saying: “We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes.

“That depends on how the US will act.”

I'm guessing direct threats to the US is not something that China would be advising the North Koreans to do......

 

[N8 v2.0]

Thank you Bill Clinton for selling nuke technology to the NK's.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

Its much more difficult if not impossible for any sizeable numbers of folks to get across the DMZ.

No, crossing the DMZ isn't a viable option for very many. That's why China would simply shove them off on SK.

I think that this shows that the Chinese don't hold the cards that they thought they did.

They may not have the cards they thought they did, but they are still in a strong position, probably stronger than us. Certainly any move we make through the UN will have to meet with China's approval, which gives them leverage. Plus, they do have the unique position of being somewhat "friendly" (notice the scare quotes) with NK and possibly in a position to help shape how NK operates and responds to us.

I'm guessing direct threats to the US is not something that China would be advising the North Koreans to do......

Only if they thought it would help their economy. China will do what is best for China. While I don't think that they are specifically advising NK to threaten us, I don't think they are advising NK not to.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

Thank you Bill Clinton for selling nuke technology to the NK's.

And don't forget Bush's buddy Musharaf.

 

[N8 v2.0]

 

[$tinkle]

And don't forget Bush's buddy Musharaf.

musharaf sold nuke tech to KJI?

i recall aq khan contributed to proliferation of technology, but not with musharaf's blessing.

 

[Old Man G Funk]

musharaf sold nuke tech to KJI?

i recall aq khan contributed to proliferation of technology, but not with musharaf's blessing.

That's what he told us at least. He also supposedly doesn't support the Taliban....

 

[$tinkle]

That's what he told us at least. He also supposedly doesn't support the Taliban....

while i can understand his duplicity wrt u.s. & taliban, what motivation would he have for giving (certainly not selling) a nuke to DPRK?

 

[Silver]

while i can understand his duplicity wrt u.s. & taliban, what motivation would he have for giving (certainly not selling) a nuke to DPRK?

I don't know...are we worried about Pakistan right now? It's a pretty extreme way to take the heat off yourself, but it beats getting invaded or killed by your own intelligence services.

(edit: zero evidence, just musing)

 

[Secret Squirrel]

It's certainly skewed...but the escalation scenario is frightening.

Discuss.

 

[H8R]

It's certainly skewed...but the escalation scenario is frightening.

Discuss.

Third, it's a fair bet that the Iranians will be closely watching the coming weeks' events. If the world lets tiny, miscreant, destitute North Korea—the freaking Hermit Kingdom—get away with testing a nuke, then who will stop the oil-rich, leverage-loaded, modern-day Persian Empire from treading the same road?

Bingo.


What do I think, as a card carrying hippy?

Glass the sh1thole.

 

[DRB]

Thank you Bill Clinton for selling nuke technology to the NK's.

Well now John McCain is taking election cues from N8.....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15210254/

Republican Sen. John McCain on Tuesday accused former President Clinton, the husband of his potential 2008 White House rival, of failing to act in the 1990s to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons.

"I would remind Senator (Hillary) Clinton and other Democrats critical of the Bush administration's policies that the framework agreement her husband's administration negotiated was a failure," McCain said at a news conference after a campaign appearance for Republican Senate candidate Mike Bouchard.

 

[Changleen]

So maybe, just maybe, the US isn't who North Korea is really worried about. Why bi-lateral talks with the US only? China supposedly been the power that is looking out for NK's best interests. Why wouldn't you want them at the table?

Why Bi-laterals? Well, rightly or wrongly DPRK thinks the US is it's major threat. They want to deal directly with the threat. It is a logical reaction.

Secondly, only Bush is dumb enough to actually refuse to talk to someone he has a problem with. Especially in Asia this sort of behaviour is seen as childish and wrong. By offering direct talks with the 'problem', DPRK make themselves look quite reasonable to their neighbours and at the same time make the US look childish. Not entirely without merit either.

 

[Changleen]

Well now John McCain is taking election cues from N8.....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15210254/

I think the key word there was 'negotiated'. At least Clinton had the nouse to do that. Bush is such a ideologically driven asshole.

 

[Changleen]

while i can understand his duplicity wrt u.s. & taliban, what motivation would he have for giving (certainly not selling) a nuke to DPRK?

The enemy of my enemy is my friend? Just 'for the cash'? Plenty of possible reasons.

 

[Changleen]

Pak have their fingers in a LOT of pies. Helping execute 9/11, selling nuke tech to anyone... These seem to be things that you might think Bush would perceive as maybe slightly anti his agenda. Or maybe he knows all about it and they are acting on his behalf to create enemies and circumstances for the propagaton of the WoT. Either way Pak and Bush have a lot to answer for.

 

[DRB]

Why Bi-laterals? Well, rightly or wrongly DPRK thinks the US is it's major threat. They want to deal directly with the threat. It is a logical reaction.

Secondly, only Bush is dumb enough to actually refuse to talk to someone he has a problem with. Especially in Asia this sort of behaviour is seen as childish and wrong. By offering direct talks with the 'problem', DPRK make themselves look quite reasonable to their neighbours and at the same time make the US look childish. Not entirely without merit either.

The problem is that its not just the US that has the problem. Japan, South Korea and China are all closer neighbors and Russia to a lesser degree. Remember the missiles? Those didn't go over the US's heads. Then there are those little provocations that occur on an almost weekly basis along the DMZ with the South Koreans. Think the Chinese aren't worried that Kim is going to drive is country into a big messy hole just as the balmy Korean winter is about to come for a visit.

We have been down this road before. You get pissed at the US for acting unilaterially in regards to Iraq but when the US wants to build some sort of coalition to deal with North Korea that's somehow wrong. If anything you should be thankful that the US is trying to involve "cooler" or more intelligent parties in dealings with North Korea. The cro-mag men in the US government on their own are likely to pull a Nikita Khrushchev and toss crap at the North Koreans.

So either the US gets to play world policeman or not.... chosing to fulfill your disdain for the US government is pretty shallow. But like many its simply the opposite game.....

 

[Changleen]

We have been down this road before. You get pissed at the US for acting unilaterially in regards to Iraq but when the US wants to build some sort of coalition to deal with North Korea that's somehow wrong.

C'mon. Invading a country is not in anyway the same as engaging in a discussion, now is it? There is nothing wrong with the US wanting to build a coalition, and there is also nothing wrong with kicing things off talking directly. The two are not mutually exclusive. The trouble is in this case the only reason the US wanted to do it was so they didn't have to talk to DPRK directly, because Bush is a dick.

US: "China, please ask DPRK to pass the salt"
DPRK: "China, please tell the US it eats way to much salt, and doesn't need any more."
US: "China, please tell..."
China: "SHUT UP BOTH OF YOU!"

If anything you should be thankful that the US is trying to involve "cooler" or more intelligent parties in dealings with North Korea. The cro-mag men in the US government on their own are likely to pull a Nikita Khrushchev and toss crap at the North Koreans.

So either the US gets to play world policeman or not.... chosing to fulfill your disdain for the US government is pretty shallow. But like many its simply the opposite game.....

You get to play Policeman by default from having the most toys. The question is if the rest of the world perceives you as a good, fair cop or an arrogant self serving cowboy. You really don't get much done playing the cowboy.

 

[DRB]

The trouble is in this case the only reason the US wanted to do it was so they didn't have to talk to DPRK directly, because Bush is a dick.

You are just playing the opposite game. If the US was demanding bilaterial talks and the North Koreans were saying it must be 6 way, you know what you would be saying.....

Sad but true.