Quantcast

Party's over.

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
Massive downside volume, on a serious down day. People are selling with conviction. Putting my short back on Monday. It was only a matter of when...
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
The last 8 times you've said this I stocked up on canned goods and ammo, so Im all set now.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
hahaha. Glad I'm not the only one. You're lucky to not be in a dense urban area... at least you can get out relatively quickly, and you know how/where to get your own grub.

When I run out of food, I'm screwed.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,137
16,532
Riding the baggage carousel.
2 percent=end of the world? How do you figure? And that's a serious question. I pretty much know zilch about high finance but lately it seems like a 2 percent swing in any direction hardly merits mention any more. In fact none of the major news outlets are even giving it much time.

*edit: found a pretty good article here. But I still fail to see why I need to go dig up all my drums of diesel and ammo.:tinfoil:
 
Last edited:

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
23
SF, CA
Thanks to 4 months of constant, repeated doomsday predictions from you and all the other financial whizzes in my life, I've missed out on about 40% gains.

Thanks.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
I haven't met anyone in months who is actually bullish. People are buying because they are scared to lose assets under because they didn't catch the wave. It's a bubble. The fundamentals aren't there.
We hit a few major fibonacci retractments last week, and have not broken through them yet. Given today's major sell-off, I"m putting my money on the party's over. Especially if it looks like the banks are going to get smacked but to regulation.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
See? SEE??!? This is what happens when you start to elect Republicans. Look at this graph ever since the election on Tues:



It's a precipitous dropoff ever since the possibility of a Democratic loss in 2010 reared its ugly head. Please, please, PLEASE people if you want to build your 401ks back up, vote Democratic. They're the party of business, and the party of stock market gains... :)
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Sorry, that was my best Kudlow impression. I actually dripped a little bit into the market on Friday but haven't bought seriously since the summer (and had spread out buying between January - August). I agree that there's more downside than upside risk (and has been for quite some time) but that's not to say that we're certain to see a significant pullback of greater than 10-15% or so. The sideways action we've seen for the last 4 months or so has hopefully alleviated some of that downside risk, so what I think we're seeing is that the hedge/investment fund buyers who were plumping up their portfolios for year-end are now moving back into cash. Investors get to see "70% invested!" in their portfolios, and hopefully will be glossing over how they've underperformed the S&P, NASDAQ and just about every other benchmark. Just like their was irrational upside in the 4th qtr, you're seeing irrational downside now. I'd bet the bank regulations are just the catalyst for that.

However, in the long run I'm still bullish (5+ year time frame) as regulations will help, not hurt the economy as a whole. There's still the hint of deflation, and pulling money out of the banks liquidity will definitely hurt. But it's tough medicine and in the long run it's something we need to avoid a lost decade or two like in Japan. So I say stockpile cash on the upside, invest on the downside and go baby go!

edit: And W7 snipping tool is AWESOME.
 

DRB

unemployed bum
Oct 24, 2002
15,242
0
Watchin' you. Writing it all down.
Thanks to 4 months of constant, repeated doomsday predictions from you and all the other financial whizzes in my life, I've missed out on about 40% gains.

Thanks.
Joker is like a local radio sports talk host that picks 3 games a day against the spread. Over the last 4 years he is something like 300 in the hole. Betting against him would make you a sh!t pot full of money.

Stoney98 said:
major fibonacci retractments
somebody's cut and paste works very well
 
Last edited:

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Joker is like a local radio sports talk host that picks 3 games a day against the spread. Over the last 4 years he is something like 300 in the hole. Betting against him would make you a sh!t pot full of money.
Now now, that's not very nice... :nope: Don't forget that if you'd listened to him in 2008 you would've made (or saved) a whole BUTTLOAD of money. The problem is that 99% of us (analysts and ordinary investors alike) are influenced by our general outlook and emotions. Some of us are perma-bulls, some of us are perma-bears, and by the time things have swung THAT far out of balance that those perma's actually switch it's often too late to catch the rally or plummet. That's the problem with trying to play the ups *and* downs is that you have to get right twice: First to buy/sell at the right time, and second to sell/buy in order to profit. You could've foreseen the collapse in the market back in 2007, but if you didn't also time it right to switch and either cover your shorts (or buy back into positions) that first epiphany wouldn't have done you as much good...
 

3D.

Monkey
Feb 23, 2006
899
0
Chinafornia USA
America’s private net worth was $53.4 trillion as of September, 2009... While America’s debt/unfunded liabilities totaled at least $120 trillion (225% of the citizens’ net worth)

*they* would never let the dollar crash;)
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
Update to this:


SPX is off 8.5% since our little conversation above. Who else was in SDS (double leverage short SPX) and made 17% in a little over a week?
 
Last edited:

ridiculous

Turbo Monkey
Jan 18, 2005
2,907
1
MD / NoVA
Update to this:


SPX is off 8.5% since our little conversation above. Who else was in SDS (double leverage short SPX) and made 17% in a little over a week?
:D:thumb:....and the triple leveraged financial etf faz.

I honestly wish I could get rid of this permabear mentality and just trade what I see. I was such a scardy cat all of 2009. I bought a few out of the money, sept short options way back at 10,5 and 10,7 much happier now.
 
Last edited:

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
Update to this:


SPX is off 8.5% since our little conversation above. Who else was in SDS (double leverage short SPX) and made 17% in a little over a week?
For a read of this chart:
- We've closed below the support line from the top in Oct 2008 at 1061 (38.2% retraction).
- We've also crossed to the downside the 150 EMA which is another trigger for a further downside slide.
-We have also breached the lower support of our trend channel that has been holdin since early August, which is another open door to the downside.
- We have begun to form a negative trend channel initiated on Jan 19 that is holding with multiple points of strength.
- MACD is showing oversold, but the spread is still widening, so we are looking at likely negative price action.
- RSI is just touching oversold, but has not yet crossed to trigger a reversal. It has created a light floor for the last week though.

All in all, I am still seeing this as a negative outlook with next support levels around 943 on the SPX which is the 23.6% retracement point from the top in Oct. 2008.
If we continue to trend down within the multiple support trend channel I would expect to cross the 943 mark in mid-March, however an acceleration in line with what we ahve seen in the last few days could easily get us there by mid-month. Today's heavy selloff was accomanied by heavy volume almost double the 5day avg, with a ramp up into the close that looked to be short covering going into the weekend.

With moderate consumer impact co's reporting on Monday, I would not expect and major moves unless there is a heavy miss, however Tuesday will be a key date to watch as the ABC Consumer Confidence numbers are coming out. Given the 'reality' we get from the ABC numbers, would could see a sharp decline in prices on a major miss to estimates. The coming week will be interesting with ABC, Mich. Consumer Confidence, Retail numbers, Initial Jobless, Business Inventories, and MBA Mortgage Applications all coming out.

If we can not hold the support lines broken today, I expect a slide to the 945 range by March.
 
Last edited:

MikeD

Leader and Demogogue of the Ridemonkey Satinists
Oct 26, 2001
11,669
1,713
chez moi
hahaha. Glad I'm not the only one. You're lucky to not be in a dense urban area... at least you can get out relatively quickly, and you know how/where to get your own grub.

When I run out of food, I'm screwed.
Let's theorize. What DOES a post-apocalyptic Whole Foods look like?

Tina Turner in charge? Fight to the death to win a single, stale tamale from the deli counter? Only two varieties of soup at the prepared food bar???
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,931
13,129
Portland, OR
Let's theorize. What DOES a post-apocalyptic Whole Foods look like?

Tina Turner in charge? Fight to the death to win a single, stale tamale from the deli counter? Only two varieties of soup at the prepared food bar???
Can you imagine the cost of Arugula then? Utter chaos.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,225
20,003
Sleazattle
I got hit in the head with something on my ride today. I think it was a piece of the sky, maybe just a bug.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,513
7,056
Colorado
I have my sky-is-falling trade in place. SPY 105-125 Dec 2012 Straddle. Bot the vols at ~17.5. If vols go up 10 pts within 6 months I'm up 200%; 1yr 150%; 2yrs 75%; 2.5yrs break even. If the SPY crosses 5pts either way of my straddle I'm ATM; anything beyond and I go ITM; No movement above/below and no vols changes in 2.5years total loss.

I bought $2200 lottery ticket. If SPY goes up or down dramatically in next 2.5yrs, my payout is exponential. If vols go up/down > 10pts in the next two years, my payout is exponential.
 
Last edited:

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,137
16,532
Riding the baggage carousel.
I have my sky-is-falling trade in place. SPY 105-125 Dec 2010 Straddle. Bot the vols at ~17.5. If vols go up 10 pts within 6 months I'm up 200%; 1yr 150%; 2yrs 75%; 2.5yrs break even. If the SPY crosses 5pts either way of my straddle I'm ATM; anything beyond and I go ITM; No movement above/below and no vols changes in 2.5years total loss.

I bought $2200 lottery ticket. If SPY goes up or down dramatically in next 2.5yrs, my payout is exponential. If vols go up/down > 10pts in the next two years, my payout is exponential.
?????
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
My greek is a little rusty but I think that means:
"I still have no idea what will really happen and neither do the websites I copy and paste my posts from".
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
I have my sky-is-falling trade in place. SPY 105-125 Dec 2010 Straddle. Bot the vols at ~17.5. If vols go up 10 pts within 6 months I'm up 200%; 1yr 150%; 2yrs 75%; 2.5yrs break even. If the SPY crosses 5pts either way of my straddle I'm ATM; anything beyond and I go ITM; No movement above/below and no vols changes in 2.5years total loss.

I bought $2200 lottery ticket. If SPY goes up or down dramatically in next 2.5yrs, my payout is exponential. If vols go up/down > 10pts in the next two years, my payout is exponential.
You know a "sky is falling" trade is usually more akin to a leveraged short as opposed to something that will generate income whether the market goes up *or* down, right? ;)

Also, not sure if it's a typo but you wrote that you bought the Dec 2010 straddle... That's only 6mo away, not 2.5 years, unless I'm completely missing something.
 

X3pilot

Texans fan - LOL
Aug 13, 2007
5,860
1
SoMD
I have my sky-is-falling trade in place. SPY 105-125 Dec 2010 Straddle. Bot the vols at ~17.5. If vols go up 10 pts within 6 months I'm up 200%; 1yr 150%; 2yrs 75%; 2.5yrs break even. If the SPY crosses 5pts either way of my straddle I'm ATM; anything beyond and I go ITM; No movement above/below and no vols changes in 2.5years total loss.

I bought $2200 lottery ticket. If SPY goes up or down dramatically in next 2.5yrs, my payout is exponential. If vols go up/down > 10pts in the next two years, my payout is exponential.
I used to hate lawyers.

Now....