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Paul ryan.....

X3pilot

Texans fan - LOL
Aug 13, 2007
5,860
1
SoMD
No, Mittens is showing how desperate he is to have someone and something for everyone else to focus on besides him.

No one is in politics for love of public service.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6

The Vice Presidential Debate is on Thursday, October 11, 2012, 9:00pm–10:30pm ET.

for those of you who believe ryan is a retard/extremist/dangerous, please prepare yourselves to be amused
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
he also does p90x, just in case he & joe have to take it to the mat for a jumping-jack-off
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Aaaaaaaaand we're back to the waffling. That didn't take long.

article said:
Mitt Romney declined to say how he disagreed with his running mate on the issue of Medicare reform, despite taking three different versions of the question from reporters in a press conference Monday.

In the 72 hours since Romney tapped Paul Ryan to join him on the Republican ticket, his campaign has repeatedly insisted that he won't be adopting the Congressman's bold, and controversial, plan to turn Medicare into a voucher system, with aides saying he doesn't agree with his running mate on every issue. But asked where, exactly, he disagreed with Ryan, Romney demurred.

"The items that we agree on far outweigh the things we disagree on," he said, adding later, "I can't imagine any two people who have exactly the same positions on the same issues."
 

rockofullr

confused
Jun 11, 2009
7,342
924
East Bay, Cali
lol

I really don't understand this pick. Rubio could have helped him get a better % of the Hispanic/minority vote. Portman could have helped carry Ohio. Christie could have given his campaign some personality. Ryan was the worst possible choice, he has no up side.

Mit is slowly ruining his own chances. The narrow lead that Obama has will steadily widen over the next few months as people see more of Mit and like him less. Once the debates start it's all over.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
I really don't understand this pick. Rubio could have helped him get a better % of the Hispanic/minority vote. Portman could have helped carry Ohio. Christie could have given his campaign some personality. Ryan was the worst possible choice, he has no up side.
choosing the house budget committee chairman w/ our economy in the crapper & 43 straight months of 8%+ unemployment is the worst possible choice?

when maddow finds out you're a dude, it's no more sushi for you
 

Beef Supreme

Turbo Monkey
Oct 29, 2010
1,434
73
Hiding from the stupid

The Vice Presidential Debate is on Thursday, October 11, 2012, 9:00pm?10:30pm ET.

for those of you who believe ryan is a retard/extremist/dangerous, please prepare yourselves to be amused
Two out of three ain't bad when you consider the last GOP VP selection. At least this choice doesn't completely disqualify Romney to be president. Nevertheless, I think the choice of a hardcore ideolog is odd given that Mittens was trying to run an issue free campaign

I will eagerly await Game Change 2 Electric Boogaloo so I can find out what is going on inside the bubble.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
choosing the house budget committee chairman w/ our economy in the crapper & 43 straight months of 8%+ unemployment is the worst possible choice?

when maddow finds out you're a dude, it's no more sushi for you
There are positives and negatives, and the question will be whether the latter outweighs the former.

Pros:
  • Young, smart, likable, can hold himself in a debate and make drastic horrific policies like gutting Medicare sound rational and intuitive.
  • Is hardcore rightwing, enough to shore up Romney's base. Just note all of the pasty-white middle-age people showing up at his rallies.
  • Has put out *a* budget. Even though it has almost universal disdain from anyone not named Rand, Romney is trying to run on the fact that he put one out (even though he disagrees with "parts" of it).
  • Comes from a swing state (polling showed that Romney almost closes the gap in WI with him on the ticket).
  • Is blue-collar enough that will hopefully get some of the midwesterners who only saw Romney as an empty suit from New England. (Maybe Ryan can chat with people from OH/IL/IA since they have all had GM plants close?)


Cons:
  • Nobody likes his plan unless they are either hard right or have been granted immunity from any of the consequences (see: 55+) of it.
  • Women in particular *hate* his plan, since they depend more (proportionately) on social programs such as SS, Medicare and Medicaid. Women also live longer, meaning they will end up paying more for health care under Ryan's plan.
  • Does nothing to attract young people (who get screwed under his plan), minorities (who get screwed under his plan), etc.
  • Zero foreign policy experience, which combined with Romney's equals..... zero foreign policy experience.
  • Ryan is the personification of the ineptitude of Congress, including gridlock and it's single-digit approval ratings. If Obam's going to run against the do-nothing Congress, all he has to do is point to Paul Ryan. It would be like if Obama had chosen Pelosi as his running mate.......


Moderate Republicans like Frum *hate* him, and hate that the GOP is going the way of the Tea Party. Hardcore conservatives love him, and think that he's the second coming of jebus. I think it's all going to depend on who gets to define him first; If Democrats can define him as "the guy who's going to take away your Medicare and privatize SS so that Romney can get a 90% tax cut from his already pathetically-low rate", Romney's done. If he's defined as "the guy willing to make the hard choices (which we're not going to specify, and probably won't apply to you)", Romney wins. Or at least does better than he was a couple weeks ago where he was trailing Obama by 9pts in a Fox "News" poll.

I see it as being really, really hard to reinvent Ryan. There's so much of a paper-trail that it's so easy to come up with past votes/bills to run against; Personhood amendment. Voting against the Lily-Ledbetter (?) act. Opposing spending on roads and bridges. Opposing extending the Bush tax cuts for those making less than $250k. Voting *for* the Medicare Part D expansion (unfunded) in '05. Etc.

But think about it this way: We're not talking about Romney's tax returns anymore..........
 

rockofullr

confused
Jun 11, 2009
7,342
924
East Bay, Cali
choosing the house budget committee chairman w/ our economy in the crapper & 43 straight months of 8%+ unemployment is the worst possible choice?

when maddow finds out you're a dude, it's no more sushi for you
There are a bunch of reasons I feel this was a bad choice. First, Mit doesn't need help on economic issues he needs help everywhere else.

Also, the house budget committee is how we got into this stack of debt. That's like choosing the head of Fannie Mae as a running mate during the housing bust.

In addition Ryan's budget plan is so ridiculous that Mit is already running away from it.

Finally, this pick will help Obama as it will be easy to take the focus off of the economy. Obama's team will simply say "hey look! Mit is going to dismantle Medicare and Social Security. Just look at who he chose for VP!"
 

rockofullr

confused
Jun 11, 2009
7,342
924
East Bay, Cali
There are positives and negatives, and the question will be whether the latter outweighs the former.
Maybe I'm biased but I disagree with most of your Pros and therefore think Ryan was a horrible choice.



Pros:

[*]Young, smart, likable, can hold himself in a debate and make drastic horrific policies like gutting Medicare sound rational and intuitive.
Do people really think he is likable?

[*]Is hardcore rightwing, enough to shore up Romney's base. Just note all of the pasty-white middle-age people showing up at his rallies.
Do we really think the teapartiers are going to vote Obama because Romney is not far enough right?

[*]Has put out *a* budget. Even though it has almost universal disdain from anyone not named Rand, Romney is trying to run on the fact that he put one out (even though he disagrees with "parts" of it).

[*]Comes from a swing state (polling showed that Romney almost closes the gap in WI with him on the ticket).
I may have to give you these two.

[*]Is blue-collar enough that will hopefully get some of the midwesterners who only saw Romney as an empty suit from New England. (Maybe Ryan can chat with people from OH/IL/IA since they have all had GM plants close?)
Whuuuuuu? As far as I know the guy has never held a job outside of politics.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Maybe I'm biased but I disagree with most of your Pros and therefore think Ryan was a horrible choice.

I'm biased,

Do people really think he is likable?

Do we really think the teapartiers are going to vote Obama because Romney is not far enough right?

I may have to give you these two.

Whuuuuuu? As far as I know the guy has never held a job outside of politics.
So, he's from Janesville, which is as blue-collar-rust-belt as you can get, including the "closed GM factory on the outskirts of town and high unemployment among middle-age blue collar workers". It's also a relatively blue area (voting for Obama by a wide margin) that has voted for him every single time since he started running in 1998. He even won comfortably in '08, meaning that there were people who voted for both Obama *and* Paul Ryan. Don't overlook his ability to put himself out there as a "hardworking and passionate individual who's trying to do what's best for the country". I think he's full of sh!t, but then again, I think that most/all GOPers are as well.

And it does balance out Romney's "Northeast Liberal Republican" background. This isn't a liberal financial guy from Boston/NYC who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, it's a guy from a factory town in WI... although note that they didn't hold the "homecoming" in Janesville but rather the affluent Milwaukee suburb of Waukesha (~3 hours away).

And Romney's biggest gamble right now is who shows up at the voting booth in November. If the crowds from 2008 show up, he loses regardless as to who he picks. Too many women, minorities and young people will pull the lever for Obama to make up for the small amount of independents and middle-of-the-road voters that he would have picked up if he'd chosen a moderate. What he's gambling on is that voter apathy (or "OMFG, Obama hasn't done 100% of the things that I wanted") will be in place on the Democratic side, and that the electorate looks more like that of 2010. In 2010 Democrats just didn't show up. Period. If that happens again in 2012, his best chance to win is to energize his base. He's hoping for the 5 or 6 people who voted "some other guy" in the RM poll to either not show up to vote, or to cast a protest vote for whomever.

People rarely get energized to vote *against* someone. People hated GWB in '04 but couldn't be bothered to go vote against him. Or, if they do show up and vote, it's not with enthusiasm... You're not going to go knock on your neighbor's door to drag him/her to the polls. People do do that when they're voting *for* someone. Romney's hoping that the votes he gains by an energized voting group outweighs the few people who get turned off (and probably don't show up to vote against him anyway).
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
don't underestimate the throngs of independents who say to themselves - never in polite company - "we tried the black guy already", and will pull for romney.

i think the exit polls will be off by >5% for this reason
 

rockofullr

confused
Jun 11, 2009
7,342
924
East Bay, Cali
People rarely get energized to vote *against* someone. People hated GWB in '04 but couldn't be bothered to go vote against him. Or, if they do show up and vote, it's not with enthusiasm... You're not going to go knock on your neighbor's door to drag him/her to the polls. People do do that when they're voting *for* someone. Romney's hoping that the votes he gains by an energized voting group outweighs the few people who get turned off (and probably don't show up to vote against him anyway).
That's just the thing. Mit is the Jhon Kerry of republicans. A wishy washy rich kid with a good smile who does his best to say all the right things. It's hard to get passionate about that kind of person and I don't think that Ryan has any serious draw or charisma to speak of.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
don't underestimate the throngs of independents who say to themselves - never in polite company - "we tried the black guy already", and will pull for romney.

i think the exit polls will be off by >5% for this reason
I'm pretty sure that the whole storyline of "I have to lie about who I'm voting for so people don't think I'm racist" only exists in the minds of hardcore Republicans... Certainly wasn't true in '08, and doubt it's true now.

What I *can* see playing a role is voting restrictions which primarily impact Democratic voters. Much of Obama's money is direct contributions, which can pay for a massive get-out-the-vote campaign. Much of Romney's money is SuperPAC money, which can't be used for that, unless they were to build their voter database from scratch (can't coordinate). Could definitely impact something like FL (close polls, voter registration laws on hold right now) or PA (polls not as close, but up to 10% of PA residents don't have a valid ID).