From Monster.com:
What Would War Mean for US Workers?
by John Rossheim
You can't get an employer to tell you that Iraq's on their mind, says Frank Black, president of the Washington Group, a Washington, DC, affiliate of Management Recruiters International.
If employers are slow to acknowledge the significance of a possible war with Iraq, maybe it's because they're facing so many other big issues:
· Unemployment moved down from 6 percent in December 2002 to 5.7 percent in January, and companies added 143,000 workers to their payrolls. Do the hiring companies' rivals need to think about staffing up as well?
· On the same day the monthly employment data were released, the administration of President George W. Bush announced that the terror alert level would be raised from elevated to high. Should employers spend more on security, or put off all spending increases -- and hiring -- due to uncertainties about national security?
· Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan doesn't know what to make of the American economy. Considerable uncertainties surround the economic outlook, especially in the period immediately ahead, Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in his February 11, 2003, report.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, let's examine how a US-led war against Iraq and possible terror threats might affect employment in select sectors of the economy.
Defense Industry
Contractors whose clients include both the US military and NASA are still reeling from the loss of the space shuttle Columbia and its crew of seven. Stocks of defense and aerospace contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and Alliant Techsystems Inc. took a hit right after the Columbia disaster, which raised doubts about the future of the shuttle program and manned spaceflight as a whole.
Still, big increases in the defense budget since the September 11 attacks are creating some new employment opportunities, according to Charles Pena, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC. Will there be new defense jobs in the private sector? Yes. Is it going to be a big boom? Not necessarily, says Pena.
Would a war against Iraq further increase defense spending? If we expend enough munitions, we have to replace them, Pena notes. But this doesn't always translate into more jobs.
Homeland Security
The new federal Department of Homeland Security, with a budget exceeding those of its component agencies by billions of dollars, is a likely font of new jobs. There may be more jobs related to homeland security than defense in the long run, Pena says.
Until the homeland security department was created, a lot of private contractors were on hold, because nobody knew who would have the money to spend, says Black.
Further, the federal government hasn't filled all of the jobs created in the wake of September 11. Candidates for airport security screener positions are still encouraged to apply to the Transportation Security Administration, for example, but the government is no longer taking applications for air marshal positions.
Private Security
The demand for private security guards rose after September 11, but it is not expected to spike in the event of a war against Iraq.
Shortly after 9/11, there was an increased demand, especially on the East Coast, says Don Walker, a spokesman for private security firm Pinkerton's Inc. in Chicago. Since then, demand retreated somewhat as companies with shrinking orders closed facilities and thus reduced their need for guards.
Walker believes that orders for guards bottomed out last fall, so there may be opportunities ahead. Right now, every time there's a terror alert, there are a few customers who will add some security temporarily, he says.
Through 2010, the demand for security guards will be growing faster than that of the average occupation, according to the Department of Labor's Occupational Outlook Handbook.
Post-War Jobs Picture
If there is a war in the Persian Gulf, what will be the post-war employment environment? That one's beyond all but the bravest of economic fortunetellers.
The economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a succession of substantial blows, Greenspan said in his report. Let's hope there's no exception in reaction to any shocks that may be imminent.
What Would War Mean for US Workers?
by John Rossheim
You can't get an employer to tell you that Iraq's on their mind, says Frank Black, president of the Washington Group, a Washington, DC, affiliate of Management Recruiters International.
If employers are slow to acknowledge the significance of a possible war with Iraq, maybe it's because they're facing so many other big issues:
· Unemployment moved down from 6 percent in December 2002 to 5.7 percent in January, and companies added 143,000 workers to their payrolls. Do the hiring companies' rivals need to think about staffing up as well?
· On the same day the monthly employment data were released, the administration of President George W. Bush announced that the terror alert level would be raised from elevated to high. Should employers spend more on security, or put off all spending increases -- and hiring -- due to uncertainties about national security?
· Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan doesn't know what to make of the American economy. Considerable uncertainties surround the economic outlook, especially in the period immediately ahead, Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in his February 11, 2003, report.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, let's examine how a US-led war against Iraq and possible terror threats might affect employment in select sectors of the economy.
Defense Industry
Contractors whose clients include both the US military and NASA are still reeling from the loss of the space shuttle Columbia and its crew of seven. Stocks of defense and aerospace contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and Alliant Techsystems Inc. took a hit right after the Columbia disaster, which raised doubts about the future of the shuttle program and manned spaceflight as a whole.
Still, big increases in the defense budget since the September 11 attacks are creating some new employment opportunities, according to Charles Pena, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC. Will there be new defense jobs in the private sector? Yes. Is it going to be a big boom? Not necessarily, says Pena.
Would a war against Iraq further increase defense spending? If we expend enough munitions, we have to replace them, Pena notes. But this doesn't always translate into more jobs.
Homeland Security
The new federal Department of Homeland Security, with a budget exceeding those of its component agencies by billions of dollars, is a likely font of new jobs. There may be more jobs related to homeland security than defense in the long run, Pena says.
Until the homeland security department was created, a lot of private contractors were on hold, because nobody knew who would have the money to spend, says Black.
Further, the federal government hasn't filled all of the jobs created in the wake of September 11. Candidates for airport security screener positions are still encouraged to apply to the Transportation Security Administration, for example, but the government is no longer taking applications for air marshal positions.
Private Security
The demand for private security guards rose after September 11, but it is not expected to spike in the event of a war against Iraq.
Shortly after 9/11, there was an increased demand, especially on the East Coast, says Don Walker, a spokesman for private security firm Pinkerton's Inc. in Chicago. Since then, demand retreated somewhat as companies with shrinking orders closed facilities and thus reduced their need for guards.
Walker believes that orders for guards bottomed out last fall, so there may be opportunities ahead. Right now, every time there's a terror alert, there are a few customers who will add some security temporarily, he says.
Through 2010, the demand for security guards will be growing faster than that of the average occupation, according to the Department of Labor's Occupational Outlook Handbook.
Post-War Jobs Picture
If there is a war in the Persian Gulf, what will be the post-war employment environment? That one's beyond all but the bravest of economic fortunetellers.
The economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a succession of substantial blows, Greenspan said in his report. Let's hope there's no exception in reaction to any shocks that may be imminent.
