[Toshi]

Yup. The other countries relaxing have crushed or at least markedly decreased their deaths and case counts. Meanwhile Canada and the US seem to be on a plateau.

Mission Accomplished indeed.

 

[Jm_]

Why is that? Tell us more.

Passenger volume dropped off a cliff. Even if we didn't restrict travel, every one else in the international community did, which slashed the demand for US international carriers. That also affected domestic routes, but even if there were no domestic travel restrictions, you can't keep those larger jets like 787s, 777s, A350s, and so on, they are a huge operating cost liability if they aren't generating revenue. Margins on airline travel are pretty slim too, the cost to operate an airline is staggering, so they are really only making money when they sell all of the seats on an airplane, otherwise, they are losing it with partial load-factors.

 

[mykel]

Passenger volume dropped off a cliff. Even if we didn't restrict travel, every one else in the international community did, which slashed the demand for US international carriers. That also affected domestic routes, but even if there were no domestic travel restrictions, you can't keep those larger jets like 787s, 777s, A350s, and so on, they are a huge operating cost liability if they aren't generating revenue. Margins on airline travel are pretty slim too, the cost to operate an airline is staggering, so they are really only making money when they sell all of the seats on an airplane, otherwise, they are losing it with partial load-factors.

On the surface it sounds like they built an unsustainable business model....build a house of cards in an area susceptible to occasional winds and you are going to play pickup.

 

[Mo(n)arch]

 

[Jozz]

Passenger volume dropped off a cliff. Even if we didn't restrict travel, every one else in the international community did, which slashed the demand for US international carriers. That also affected domestic routes, but even if there were no domestic travel restrictions, you can't keep those larger jets like 787s, 777s, A350s, and so on, they are a huge operating cost liability if they aren't generating revenue. Margins on airline travel are pretty slim too, the cost to operate an airline is staggering, so they are really only making money when they sell all of the seats on an airplane, otherwise, they are losing it with partial load-factors.

Volumes will be back. So planes will be needed. Maybe a few players will disappear, some new one will appear. I doubt that air traffic will be much less than it was before.

 

[iRider]

Passenger volume dropped off a cliff. Even if we didn't restrict travel, every one else in the international community did, which slashed the demand for US international carriers. That also affected domestic routes, but even if there were no domestic travel restrictions, you can't keep those larger jets like 787s, 777s, A350s, and so on, they are a huge operating cost liability if they aren't generating revenue. Margins on airline travel are pretty slim too, the cost to operate an airline is staggering, so they are really only making money when they sell all of the seats on an airplane, otherwise, they are losing it with partial load-factors.

I recently read somewhere that airlines need 75-85% of the seats occupied to break even, however, with less passengers now also can make money by having more freight on board. So even if a plane has nearly no passengers on board it could be worthwhile to run the flight as there is still a high demand for air freight.

 

[Jozz]

In Montreal, the majority of deaths have been in old age homes as you state. This is shifting however and there is a lot of community and unknown transmission happening.

What puzzles me is: we are in a state of confinement, there is a certain infection and death rate, we don’t have a handle on transmission, we haven’t seen a dip, we are going to leave the state of confinement.

My question is, how do we do that without making the situation worse? Are people properly informed? If it does get worse, does it land us back into a state of confinement? If it does get worse, are we saying we are ok with that situation and can handle the repercussions?

There is a level of individual choice here, but we also live in a society where my actions affect others.

Just checked the news and there is a new report out echoing my concerns: https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/montreal/578638/un-deconfinement-a-haut-risque-pour-le-grand-montreal

People spreading it are not in confinement, they are essential services. Even if confinement is stretch for ever, essential services people will still spread the virus in their community. There is an article from NYC that saw a surges of cases from people that observed strict confinement. They are trying to trace how they got infected.

I'm not trying to minimize this, it's just I can see a way out of this no matter how long we keep the same strict measures.

 

[Mo(n)arch]

As of now it seems that I will have to travel way less due to the acceptance of video conferences and closed borders. Before Corona I had weeks where I drove like 1500kms.
All of a sudden everyone is able to get in a conference call...

 

[6thElement]

As of now it seems that I will have to travel way less due to the acceptance of video conferences and closed borders. Before Corona I had weeks where I drove like 1500kms.
All of a sudden everyone is able to get in a conference call...

View attachment 144914

Impressive to poopdeck yourself in that short a timespan

 

[Jm_]

I recently read somewhere that airlines need 75-85% of the seats occupied to break even, however, with less passengers now also can make money by having more freight on board. So even if a plane has nearly no passengers on board it could be worthwhile to run the flight as there is still a high demand for air freight.

The demand for freight isn't nearly as much. It's not like the freight demand has increased to fill the void. Freight is down too at most carriers. In a few niche areas it's increased, but again, passenger volume...cliff.

 

[Mo(n)arch]

Impressive to poopdeck yourself in that short a timespan

I see, I see. A bit tired, a bit drunk.

 

[iRider]

The demand for freight isn't nearly as much. It's not like the freight demand has increased to fill the void. Freight is down too at most carriers. In a few niche areas it's increased, but again, passenger volume...cliff.

You are right, freight can't fill the void of missing passengers. However, they said that usually 60% of freight goes onto passenger flights. Because they are not operating anymore, demand is higher than the available capacity although it also went down. Freight airlines are re-activating planes and some airlines continue their regular passenger flights with mainly freight. Might be wrong info, can't find the source anymore.

 

[Jm_]

You are right, freight can't fill the void of missing passengers. However, they said that usually 60% of freight goes onto passenger flights. Because they are not operating anymore, demand is higher than the available capacity although it also went down. Freight airlines are re-activating planes and some airlines continue their regular passenger flights with mainly freight. Might be wrong info, can't find the source anymore.

Yeah. Passenger flights often transport US mail under contract and other freight. If they can fill a plane enough to make it worth it, they'll do it, but it's extremely costly to transport by air in the first place if there are road and rial networks available, so at best it's a way to use "some" capacity, a fraction of what they were doing before. Fed Ex and UPS specialize in this and have the infrastructure in place to do it, others, not so much. We still have the cargo 747s landing and taking off all day long up here, as it's a fuel stop for great-circle-route cargo that travels across the globe.

 

[stoney]

Volumes will be back. So planes will be needed. Maybe a few players will disappear, some new one will appear. I doubt that air traffic will be much less than it was before.

The likelihood we go back to our current air travel levels will drop substantially. We can't risk getting MIL1 sick and if we travel to NorCal, she'll probably travel with us but just rent a car and stay independently. MIL2/FIL are both retired and planning on driving everywhere now. My parents are retiring in 6 months, so they will be coming to us as well. Wifey's cousin (effectively SIL) will likely be moving to CO and is the only reason we'd really go back to CA after our parents all retire. We fly at least 4-6 times (round trips) with 4 people per year.

My company has stated that I will not be flying any time soon and if I have a farther regional client, I should be expecting to drive at this point. They would rather I burn 2 travel days than risk illness or the projected increased travel costs, because both have a far greater costs than they are willing to carry going forward. I fly 2-4 times for work, always business class, refundable - so at a premium.

Combined, that's about $10-15k/year of flights going *poof* which probably won't come back. My parents are the in-laws are another 3-4 flights each for 5 people as well, so another $2-3k.

If I think about my company? Probably a few million a year that will not be getting spent.

 

[iRider]

Yeah. Passenger flights often transport US mail under contract and other freight. If they can fill a plane enough to make it worth it, they'll do it, but it's extremely costly to transport by air in the first place if there are road and rial networks available, so at best it's a way to use "some" capacity, a fraction of what they were doing before. Fed Ex and UPS specialize in this and have the infrastructure in place to do it, others, not so much. We still have the cargo 747s landing and taking off all day long up here, as it's a fuel stop for great-circle-route cargo that travels across the globe.

Not sure about how credible this source is, but can't find the article I read anymore. Same message though.

 

[Toshi]

Wendover Productions makes some nice videos. They're a legit source afaik.