it (as an arbitrary life form) will have a non-negligible change of making it to 23 weeks... unless you do something out of the ordinary.uh, until about 23 weeks the chances are 0 to the best of my knowledge. can't survive if your lungs haven't formed yet.
of course, not on "its own", in terms relative to independance, as it needs a womb to survive.... but on "its own" as on "it will maybe or likely get somewhere, if you dont disturb it while its attached to its life-support system".... which is different than say an unfertilized egg... which will go nowhere on its own, or a fertilized egg in vitro... which will not survive unless you go out of your way to put it on a uterus.....
"on its own" being the tricky definition here. "purposely interruption" another trick definition.
its not the same to "fail to save" than to "go to walmart, get a rifle and ammo, wait 12 hours and shoot in the face". hyperbole to make my point.
no need to resort to an arbitrary morality, or to reduce any opposing view to religious fanatism or anything.
not to say am not pro-abortion. while i do have an ethical distaste over it, doesnt mean i dont see its utilitarian value.