Still comes down to Ohio... NC's leaning Romney, and I wouldn't put money on FL going into the (D) column after the voter suppression going on. Even if Obama takes VA (and NH/NV), it comes down to WI, CO and IA and I'd rather not leave the fate of the country up to those 3 states. Wisconsin turned out the non-Madison/Milwaukee vote in HUGE numbers during the recall election, all of which went for Walker. If polling has been more focused on Madison/Milwaukee/Waukesha counties, upstate voters could throw a massive wrench into the outcome.
Of course, if Romney then wins WI and IA and Obama wins CO, they tie. Ugh.
Of course, if Romney then wins WI and IA and Obama wins CO, they tie. Ugh.