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recession for the US?

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
25
behind the viewfinder
all signs are pointing to yes. housing market, inflation, sub-prime collapse, weak dollar....the economy ain't looking too robust right now.

but i know squat about economic theory, so i'll wait for some enlightened opinions. or least wait until the cut and paster arrives.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,472
3,233
Sleazattle
The market analysts here at work are expecting a slight down turn but nothing really bad, of course no one is ever allowed to tell Sr. management bad news around here so it is probably much worse than stated.

We are driven by domestic production of durable goods, specifically capital equipment.
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,033
0
Denver
I called it around Thanksgiving.

The fundamentals are upside down. The Fed floods the market to boost confidence, but then you get Inflation Rate Worst in 17 years

There's little to be done at this point beyond trying to make the recession as comfortable as possible and prevent a depression.
 

Spero

ass rainbow
Jul 12, 2005
2,072
0
Tejas
Here's just one of the articles I've stumbled onto recently. I disagree with about half of those predictions (mostly because I don't see how the guy could come to such a conclusion at this point in time). I've also been through some recent reading that predicts a slow first half with things picking back up slowly later this year.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,472
3,233
Sleazattle
Personally I have no long term confidence in an economy whose success is basically based on people wasting every possible cent they can get their hands on. Maybe I'm a bit paranoid but don't think things can not stay the way they are for too much longer (years? decades? I don't know).
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,815
8
looking for classic NE singletrack
as long as you keep hearing the talking heads going on and on about how stocks are cheap right now, and that it's a good time to buy, LOOK OUT! Americans are over-leveraged and under-paid (relative to inflation). Real wages declined 0.9% last year (ie, wage growth didn't make up for inflation). I'd bet something along the lines of the 2002 stock market decline is probably in order (http://www.answers.com/topic/stock-market-downturn-of-2002). It'll be interesting to see how history views this period, the "jobless recovery" between '02 and now. It's true that the "market" recovered, but did the economy actually strengthen, or was it a weak economy fueled by consumer spending through personal debt?
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,431
2,013
Portland, OR
The interesting note on the job market front. I know in Oregon you can only get unemployment for a maximum of 6 months. Once you have exhausted your 6 months, then you are no longer getting paid, and also no longer being counted as being unemployed even though you still are.

So while the jobless rate might look like it has reduced, the fact is the number only reflects people getting paid unemployment while there are a much larger number of people still actually unemployed.

Also, even though I am employed, I make $5k less a year now than I did in 2000. Not bad considering I make $40k less in 2003 than I did in 2000. It's been a long, hard road.

I am one of those consumers that has purchased much less over the last 6 or so years than I did prior to 2000.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,472
3,233
Sleazattle
The interesting note on the job market front. I know in Oregon you can only get unemployment for a maximum of 6 months. Once you have exhausted your 6 months, then you are no longer getting paid, and also no longer being counted as being unemployed even though you still are.

So while the jobless rate might look like it has reduced, the fact is the number only reflects people getting paid unemployment while there are a much larger number of people still actually unemployed.

Also, even though I am employed, I make $5k less a year now than I did in 2000. Not bad considering I make $40k less in 2003 than I did in 2000. It's been a long, hard road.

I am one of those consumers that has purchased much less over the last 6 or so years than I did prior to 2000.

Short of a new bike every two years or so and inflation I consume/spend the same amount I did when I got my first job out of college. Everything else has gone into savings. I'd like to retire very early but chances are by the time that comes around having to pay my own healthcare will keep me in the job market.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,431
2,013
Portland, OR
Short of a new bike every two years or so and inflation I consume/spend the same amount I did when I got my first job out of college. Everything else has gone into savings. I'd like to retire very early but chances are by the time that comes around having to pay my own healthcare will keep me in the job market.
I wish I had been that smart early on. I spent like there was no tomorrow until Sep. '01. I still don't save quite as much as I would like, but I have resolved to also not deny myself certain things.

For sure the days of a HUGE mortgage, 2 car payments, 5 credit cards, and ZERO savings are long gone. I haven't even had a card in 4 years.

With any luck I will own my own business and make my first mil in the next few years.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
The interesting note on the job market front. I know in Oregon you can only get unemployment for a maximum of 6 months. Once you have exhausted your 6 months, then you are no longer getting paid, and also no longer being counted as being unemployed even though you still are.

So while the jobless rate might look like it has reduced, the fact is the number only reflects people getting paid unemployment while there are a much larger number of people still actually unemployed.
to date, i've not heard why this is. anyone care to explain?

also, i was not considered unemployed when i left the military until a few weeks of vacation (which i sold for pennies on the dollar) had expired.

would i be considered employed if i had signed an offer which would be effective at some future date (which is the norm for most white-collar employment)?
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,033
0
Denver
The un-employment number has always been an issue. It's known to be in error since you have people whose benefits have run out, have given up looking, gone back to school, etc.

They're starting to telephone people to ask them their status as a way to sample the public and get a better understanding of what the number is.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,431
2,013
Portland, OR
Like LO said, there isn't a solid way to count the number of people except by looking at unemployment collections.

To me it's an even worse sign of the times when you have a large number of people who are still unemployed after 6 months. Granted, some of those people are so by choice, or they are unwilling to take certain jobs. For me, I spent 4 months unemployed in 2002 and was ready to kill someone.

It got so bad that I went to work as a tow truck driver (not much more than what I made on unemployment) just to get the f@ck out of the house. But that's just how I roll, I guess. I can't imagine being unemployed at a CEO level.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
It got so bad that I went to work as a tow truck driver (not much more than what I made on unemployment) just to get the f@ck out of the house. But that's just how I roll, I guess. I can't imagine being unemployed at a CEO level.
i've been on the bench w/ my company for almost a month, with no prospects for the next month. good news: i get a paycheck. bad news: i'll feel like going 9/11 before that.

there's only so much online training & spongebob i can take
 

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,214
14
Blindly running into cactus
one of the good and bad things about my job is that when unemployment goes up, crime rates go up too. this translates to job security but also means a lack of income for the municipality which snowballs down to me in the form of less benefits and wages :twitch:
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,431
2,013
Portland, OR
one of the good and bad things about my job is that when unemployment goes up, crime rates go up too. this translates to job security but also means a lack of income for the municipality which snowballs down to me in the form of less benefits and wages :twitch:
There was an awesome study in Oregon that showed a direct collation between the level of crime and the quality of meth on the streets. The better the meth, the higher the crime rate.

There was a 3rd measure of the number of reported addicts that was near identical. The graph was so close, you could have used one color, kinda scary.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,472
3,233
Sleazattle
There was an awesome study in Oregon that showed a direct collation between the level of crime and the quality of meth on the streets. The better the meth, the higher the crime rate.

There was a 3rd measure of the number of reported addicts that was near identical. The graph was so close, you could have used one color, kinda scary.
So the government should hand out free crappy meth?
 

Plummit

Monkey
Mar 12, 2002
233
0
You might need the meth if you lived in one of these neighborhoods. 71.6% of all homes for sale in Sacramento are in foreclosure. 49% in Denver. List of Cali neighborhoods and a few from around the country.

link

Data was gathered using Trulia.com , so take that for what it's worth. Foreclosed, vacant and/or bank-owned properties will also bring neighboring homes values down.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
just a side note: as of today's 300+ point ass raping, i'm off 20% from november. i'd hate to see what a recession feels like.

fack.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,431
2,013
Portland, OR
You might need the meth if you lived in one of these neighborhoods. 71.6% of all homes for sale in Sacramento are in foreclosure. 49% in Denver. List of Cali neighborhoods and a few from around the country.

link

Data was gathered using Trulia.com , so take that for what it's worth. Foreclosed, vacant and/or bank-owned properties will also bring neighboring homes values down.
My wifes friend in Southern California has since lost his ass. He and his brother started a fencing business doing large residential developments. They made a huge pile 'o cash up until the last 18 months or so. The business is in the toilet because a few contractors that owed them money have filed bankruptcy and there are zero new fences to build.

His house went into foreclosure a few months ago. He said about 75% of the houses in his neighborhood are either for sale or bank owned.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
5,145
1,207
My wifes friend in Southern California has since lost his ass. He and his brother started a fencing business doing large residential developments. They made a huge pile 'o cash up until the last 18 months or so. The business is in the toilet because a few contractors that owed them money have filed bankruptcy and there are zero new fences to build.

His house went into foreclosure a few months ago. He said about 75% of the houses in his neighborhood are either for sale or bank owned.
Contractors linked solely to new construction are facing a similar fate here. Remodeling/maintenance contractors are doing fine as people want to preserve their investment or make do with their current home in light of a crap resale market.

Prices were down a bit due to the flood of labor from the new construction ranks but I was up 25% on the year and most of my buddies were up substantially as well. None of us work for other contractors though, those guys are crooks...:busted:
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,033
0
Denver
I'm so disappointed. I mean, I know that Bernanke isn't Greenspan, but he clearly has no balls to do the right thing and back it with appropriate words.
 

SPINTECK

Turbo Monkey
Oct 16, 2005
1,370
0
abc
The un-employment number has always been an issue. It's known to be in error since you have people whose benefits have run out, have given up looking, gone back to school, etc.

They're starting to telephone people to ask them their status as a way to sample the public and get a better understanding of what the number is.

Too many companies sending jobs to Ireland. But if you have a job, who cares about the other poor Americans. I'm all about corporate profits, dividends, driving US debt for my international investments, increasing price of goods for families through oil refining exploitation and passing all the inflated basic goods drivin up by the gas and war onto poor Americans. Not my fault they don't have any international investments and don't make their money through dividends.

I'm tired of fighting the fight and am just embracing neocon ideologies. What do I care, I have a great job with good health care- so the system works for me. Time to be a selfish 30something like the rest of the career people i know! Long live inflation as long as the people legislating it are pro life- or say they are since RU436 became over the counter on BUsh's watch.
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,033
0
Denver
Too many companies sending jobs to Ireland. But if you have a job, who cares about the other poor Americans. I'm all about corporate profits, dividends, driving US debt for my international investments, increasing price of goods for families through oil refining exploitation and passing all the inflated basic goods drivin up by the gas and war onto poor Americans. Not my fault they don't have any international investments and don't make their money through dividends.

I'm tired of fighting the fight and am just embracing neocon ideologies. What do I care, I have a great job with good health care- so the system works for me. Time to be a selfish 30something like the rest of the career people i know! Long live inflation as long as the people legislating it are pro life- or say they are since RU436 became over the counter on BUsh's watch.
good rant.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,007
149
The Cleft of Venus
Too many companies sending jobs to Ireland. But if you have a job, who cares about the other poor Americans. I'm all about corporate profits, dividends, driving US debt for my international investments, increasing price of goods for families through oil refining exploitation and passing all the inflated basic goods drivin up by the gas and war onto poor Americans. Not my fault they don't have any international investments and don't make their money through dividends.

I'm tired of fighting the fight and am just embracing neocon ideologies. What do I care, I have a great job with good health care- so the system works for me. Time to be a selfish 30something like the rest of the career people i know! Long live inflation as long as the people legislating it are pro life- or say they are since RU436 became over the counter on BUsh's watch.

Oh lookie mother... lil' Johnny is growing up!
 

SPINTECK

Turbo Monkey
Oct 16, 2005
1,370
0
abc
Oh lookie mother... lil' Johnny is growing up!
Well, as soon as billary gets in office and gives you the same free healthcare our senators have, I can revert back to my idealistic liberal inner child:)
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,007
149
The Cleft of Venus
Well, as soon as billary gets in office and gives you the same free healthcare our senators have, I can revert back to my idealistic liberal inner child:)
if that's your requirement, I'd say your 'inner-child' has about as much chance of seeing the light of day as does one of Andrea Yates' kids.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,472
3,233
Sleazattle
Looks like some foreign stock exchanges took a big dump worrying about the US economy. Get your bets in on how big of a turd the US drops tomorrow. I know little about stocks but I'll guess the Dow will drop a good percent or two. Hopefully nothing bad enough to trip the breakers.
 

DirtyDog

Gang probed by the Golden Banana
Aug 2, 2005
6,599
0
I can tell you that everyone I know, friends and family, are doing a lot worse than they were a year ago. I'm not an economist, but that must indicate something.