[Reactor]

Yeeeah...Turkey's gonna get buttfvcked in Northern Iraq.

It's okay, they deserve it.

I don't know about that. The Kurds are tough but they don't have much in the way of armor.

 

[Transcend]

I don't know about that. The Kurds are tough but they don't have much in the way of armor.

Neither did the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan.

 

[MarinR00]

So the Kurds are being attacked in the west by Turkey and in the east by Iran. This is going to be interesting.

 

[$tinkle]

Neither did the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan.

and then came along the swap of narco-dollars & yankee ingenuity

 

[Transcend]

The Turks are retarded if they actually send in ground forces. It will piss off the US and (it's clueless retard in charge), it will guarantee they do not get into the EU as a full member, and it will probably see them have them get their asses kicked.

The US will not do anything as they either piss off one ally or the other, both of whom they need desperately at the moment.

It IS funny to see the US getting a taste of it's own favorite pathetic excuse though.

The targets were not innocent civilians or Iraq’s territorial integrity but a terrorist organisation that regularly attacked Turkish targets, he said. “If a neighbouring country is providing a safe haven for terrorism . . . we have rights under international law and we will use those rights and we don’t have to get permission from anybody.”

 

[ire]

About a week ago I read an article about the PKK, apparently they bed down in the mountains and are really good mountain fighters. Turkey probably won't be able to make much of a dent, their military will just get ambushed and, like Transcend said, they probably won't get into the EU over it

 

[DaveW]

I don't know about that. The Kurds are tough but they don't have much in the way of armor.

And all that will happen if turkey sends in armor will be the same as when the US supported Iraq sent armor into those mountains..... They will be dead meat for the Kurdish mountain fighters. lthumbsdown:

 

[Transcend]

And all that will happen if turkey sends in armor will be the same as when the US supported Iraq sent armor into those mountains..... They will be dead meat for the Kurdish mountain fighters. lthumbsdown:

Or as mentioned, when the Soviets sent armor and gunships into the mountains of Afghanistan back in the day.

 

[Reactor]

I'm just hoping Turkey and the US will BOTH show some restraint....as unlikely as that is.

 

[DaveW]

Hmm sems to be a bit of confusion in the PKK ranks?

Kurdish fighters based in northern Iraq have denied reports of offering a ceasefire if Turkey abandons plans to launch cross-border raids against them.

A statement on a PKK website had said earlier that the fighters were "ready for a ceasefire if the Turkish army stops attacking our positions, drops plans for an incursion and resorts to peace".

 

[MikeD]

I thought we were the People's Front of Judea?

No, we're the Judean People's Front!

 

[DaveW]

Oh

I thought we were the Peoples Popular Front of Judea.

 

[blue]

Or as mentioned, when the Soviets sent armor and gunships into the mountains of Afghanistan back in the day.

Yep yep...Northern Iraq is very conducive to guerilla fighting, terrain is very similar to Afghanistan's. Turkey doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of defeating the PKK.

 

[MikeD]

Sure, you'll see some tank battles. But fighting in desert is very different from fighting in canopy jungle. I mean 'Nam was a foot soldier's war, whereas, uh, this thing should be a ****ing cakewalk. I mean I had an M16, Jacko, not an Abrams ****ing tank. Just me and Charlie, man, eyeball to eyeball. That's ****in' combat. The man in the black pyjamas, Dude. Worthy ****in' adversary....
Whereas what we have here? A bunch of fig-eaters wearing towels on their heads, trying to find reverse in a Soviet tank. This is not a worthy adversary.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Sure, you'll see some tank battles. But fighting in desert is very different from fighting in canopy jungle. I mean 'Nam was a foot soldier's war, whereas, uh, this thing should be a ****ing cakewalk. I mean I had an M16, Jacko, not an Abrams ****ing tank. Just me and Charlie, man, eyeball to eyeball. That's ****in' combat. The man in the black pyjamas, Dude. Worthy ****in' adversary....
Whereas what we have here? A bunch of fig-eaters wearing towels on their heads, trying to find reverse in a Soviet tank. This is not a worthy adversary.

In Soviet Russia, tank reverses you!

 

[$tinkle]

only problem is: charlie don't surf on shabbos.

 

[$tinkle]

oh yeah, back on the topic of "worst case scenario": Friedman: remember iraq

I don’t know whether it was the sheer agony of the debate over Gen. David Petraeus’s testimony, or the fact that the surge really has dampened casualties, or the failure by Democrats to force an Iraq withdrawal through Congress, or the fact that all the leading Democratic presidential contenders have signaled that they will not precipitously withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, but the air has gone out of the Iraq debate.

you bet your size 24 ass it has!

bonus: some more war pr0n
after watching & listening to this, it makes me want to rob a liquor store

 

[DaveW]

Just been reading This bit of media comentating on Iraq.
Really looks pretty much a lost cause over there for utterly everyone (except perhaps the manufacturers of bodybags/coffins). lthumbsdown:

Let's face it by taking out Hussein you have created history's largest most successful fundamentalist / terrorist breeding ground.
Arseburger!

 

[MarinR00]

Monday Morning Quarterback! :biggrin:

 

[$tinkle]

Really looks pretty much a lost cause over there for utterly everyone (except perhaps the manufacturers of bodybags/coffins).

except when it isn't: As violence falls in Iraq, cemetery workers feel the pinch

and then today's washpo reports "Attacks in Iraq Continue to Decline"

but, i guess that won't stop the propaganda machine: "Twenty headless bodies found north of Baghdad", except that - oops - it didn't quite go down like that: (BBC)

Meanwhile, Iraqi police denied earlier reports that 20 headless bodies had been found dumped near Baquba.

which makes more sense? 20 decapitated bodies were dumped w/o anyone taking notice, nor any evidence yet to be gathered, or that someone threw out a nice round number of "20 decapitated bodies" to a Reuters stringer?

edit to add: here's a good propaganda site: http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1

 

[Secret Squirrel]

At first glance, i thought that last web linky said "milf-iraq.com"

Then I thought about Monday Night Football....in iraq...

 

[jimmydean]

At first glance, i thought that last web linky said "milf-iraq.com"

Then I thought about Monday Night Football....in iraq...

That first site isn't as good as you would think.

I would watch Monday Night Football in Iraq, though. That would be awesome. It sucked in a soccer stadium, maybe a sand game would be cool.

 

[ire]

Some good things are happening over there
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1681415,00.html

46,000 Returned to Iraq in October


Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi, the Iraqi spokesman for a U.S.-Iraqi military push to pacify Baghdad, said border crossings recorded 46,030 people returning to Iraq in October alone. He attributed the large number to the "improving security situation."

"The level of terrorist operations has dropped in most of the capital's neighborhoods, due to the good performance of the armed forces," al-Moussawi told reporters in the heavily-guarded Green Zone. Al-Moussawi did not give numbers of Iraqis returning home before October.

The latest figure comes as Iraq's neighbors, particularly Syria and Jordan, have tightened their borders to Iraqis fleeing the turmoil in their own country. Syria is home to at least 1.2 million Iraqi refugees, and Jordan has about 750,000.

Many of those Iraqis are living in limbo, unable to work and running out of whatever money they were able to bring out of Iraq. Both countries are struggling to provide services to incoming Iraqis and began requiring visas for them starting this past summer. Most applications are denied.

Those who fled to Syria or Jordan before the new rules took effect must leave when their three-month permits expire unless they have been officially recognized by the United Nations as refugees — a process that can take months.

That leaves many people with the choice of returning to Iraq or risking deportation anyway. And with the improving security situation, it appears many Iraqis are opting to return home. Al-Moussawi did not explain whether the 46,030 included people who arrived by air, rather than by crossing borders from neighboring countries.

According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, some 2 million Iraqis have fled their country. Besides Syria and Jordan, Egypt has absorbed 100,000. Some 54,000 Iraqis are in Iran, 40,000 in Lebanon, 10,000 in Turkey and 200,000 in various Persian Gulf countries.

The U.S. admitted only 1,608 Iraqi refugees this past fiscal year. Sweden has admitted more than 18,000 since 2006, the highest number in any European country, but now says it too is tightening asylum rules.

On Monday, the Iraqi Red Crescent issued a report saying nearly 2.3 million Iraqis — the vast majority of them women and children — have fled their homes but remain inside the country's borders.

The number of internally displaced people, or IDPs, in Iraq grew by 16 percent in September from the previous month — to 2,299,425, the Red Crescent said. That figure has skyrocketed since the beginning of 2007, when less than half a million people were listed as displaced.

Al-Moussawi questioned those figures in a news conference on Wednesday, publicly asking the Red Crescent to "give reasons behind this high number."

"The increase announced by the Red Crescent is not logical, because now we are living a stable security situation and many families have returned to their original places," al-Moussawi said.

He suggested some families had registered for Red Crescent aid because they were in financial straits, but that they had not been displaced.

Scattered violence continued Wednesday, albeit at sharply reduced levels than several months ago, before the 30,000-strong U.S. force buildup here.

 

[Reactor]

Yeah, this year is goig really great....so far there are more casualties this year than any other of the iraq...war...eh..police action...eh...cluster f*ck.

Casualties were down slightly in September 2007(65) from September06(72) and fairly dramatically down in October (38 vs. 106) but there are quite a few other months with less than 40 GI deaths, So I wouldn't pop the champagne yet.

 

[$tinkle]

2 things are not mentioned:
- deaths due to non-hostile action (funny how accidental death gets ignored out-of-theater, but rolled in here)
- number of combat forces (recall the surge, which would stand to reason overall fatalities of all types increase)

 

[$tinkle]

oh noes!!bang!!: NYTimes: Militant Group is out of Baghdad

BAGHDAD, Nov. 7 — American forces have routed Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the Iraqi militant network, from every neighborhood of Baghdad, a top American general said today, allowing American troops involved in the “surge” to depart as planned.

Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr., commander of United States forces in Baghdad, also said that American troops had yet to clear some 13 percent of the city, including Sadr City and several other areas controlled by Shiite militias. But, he said, “there’s just no question” that violence had declined since a spike in June.

“Murder victims are down 80 percent from where they were at the peak,” and attacks involving improvised bombs are down 70 percent, he said.

General Fil attributed the decline to improvements in the Iraqi security forces, a cease-fire ordered by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, the disruption of financing for insurgents, and, most significant, Iraqis’ rejection of “the rule of the gun.”

could this spell the end of this thread?

 

[DaveW]

No, pretty sure this horse aint dead enough yet.

 

[H8R]

could this spell the end of this thread?

Well, looks like everything is cleaned up and hunky dory.

Move along people, nothing to see here.

 

[Reactor]

oh noes!!bang!!: NYTimes: Militant Group is out of Baghdadcould this spell the end of this thread?

1. The reason casualties are down is that Al Sadr told his people to take a vacation for six months...starting two months ago, They should start fighting again about a month before Bush starts his draw down.

2. In theory having more troops allows better control, reducing casualties, not increasing them.

3. I find the cherry picking of stats very dishonest on all sides. On the administration side they refuse to keep good stats on civilian deaths, or crime, and instead keep track of "deaths due to sectarian violence", If your ****e daughter is raped and killed by sunni's it's called a crime. If you turn up dead in a alley with a bullet in your torso or the front of the head, it's a crime, but if you are shot in the back of the head it's "sectarian violence"

4. Hundreds of thousands of iraqi's have died as a direct result of the invasion. 2,000,000+ are "internally displaced" and 2,000,000 are refugees in other countries, including the best and brightest iraqi's. That's 20% of the country's population.

This is going to take decades to resolve.

 

[narlus]

has n8 gone over there and drawn his piece yet?

 

[DaveW]

has n8 gone over there and drawn his piece yet?

Not yet... He hasn't found where he hid his crayons yet.

 

[MikeD]

Not yet... He hasn't found where he hid his crayons yet.

I hate it when rep doesn't work.

 

[MarinR00]

You can’t totally defeat a cell-based insurgent network. You can only mitigate its ability to conduct attacks.

A buddy of mine I work with brought up a valid point. If Al Queada says, “Hey, we give up. Here is our unconditional surrender. You win.” We won’t accept it, because we don’t negotiate with terrorists. Ironic, in a way. It’s a vicious cycle….

I plan on getting out as soon as my time is up.

 

[MikeD]

"unconditional" means no negotiation. That said, it's a cell network. The organization can't surrender... if the head does, the body still knows what to do, and if a part of the body does, the head can still get a new body...

 

[DaveW]

I plan on getting out as soon as my time is up.

Keep safe till then mate.
Good luck with the stop loss, I hope you make it out.

 

[Silver]

Ever watch a football game that's a blowout in the first half? Like 31-0? The end of the game rolls around, and the final score is 38-21. Doesn't look so bad, right?

Except you still lost...

 

[MarinR00]

Thanks DaveW, I appreciate that. After I get out (after 9 years), I will have 3 years on IRR, and that's scary! But I am looking to go FBI, so that will take care of that.


MikeD.... it was a joke.

 

[$tinkle]

1. The reason casualties are down is that Al Sadr told his people to take a vacation for six months...starting two months ago, They should start fighting again about a month before Bush starts his draw down.

i've often wondered where jihadis holiday. everybody needs a break

2. In theory having more troops allows better control, reducing casualties, not increasing them.

i'll agree the rate decreases, but raw numbers - the crux of the anti-war argument - increases, albeit slightly. i'm too lazy to track the trends. seems a little macabre, even for me.

3. I find the cherry picking of stats very dishonest on all sides. On the administration side they refuse to keep good stats on civilian deaths, or crime, and instead keep track of "deaths due to sectarian violence", If your ****e daughter is raped and killed by sunni's it's called a crime. If you turn up dead in a alley with a bullet in your torso or the front of the head, it's a crime, but if you are shot in the back of the head it's "sectarian violence"

you'd be a very unsuccessful politician. don't say you weren't warned

4. Hundreds of thousands of iraqi's have died as a direct result of the invasion. 2,000,000+ are "internally displaced" and 2,000,000 are refugees in other countries, including the best and brightest iraqi's. That's 20% of the country's population.

upshot is: at least now we're able to put a number on it, unlike under hussein.

This is going to take decades to resolve.

i'd even put it north of that, but with short seasons of feigned detente

 

[Reactor]

You can’t totally defeat a cell-based insurgent network. You can only mitigate its ability to conduct attacks.

A buddy of mine I work with brought up a valid point. If Al Queada says, “Hey, we give up. Here is our unconditional surrender. You win.” We won’t accept it, because we don’t negotiate with terrorists. Ironic, in a way. It’s a vicious cycle….

I plan on getting out as soon as my time is up.

Yep. The only thing you can do against a cell based system is mitigate attacks, and try to change the conditions causing the insurgency. If they can't get new recruits, and their members start to see it as a a hopeless cause it will die, eventually.

The way to win is to get rid of the madrassas, We need to be building schools, employment, and public services so we erode the root of the problem. Unfortunately all it takes is a few power hungry pricks like Al Sadr to make it impossible.

I am impressed with the gains the last couple of months, but those gains must be maintained and increased in order really make lasting dent in Iraq. All it takes is a bad incident like abu gharib, or one of the clerics deciding no to play and we might be back to square one.


Stay safe, and a speedy return home.

 

[MikeD]

I will have 3 years on IRR, and that's scary! But I am looking to go FBI, so that will take care of that.


MikeD.... it was a joke.

Check on the FBI thing. I don't know if the "key personnel" thing has changed. I know most other fed LE doesn't get it.

Why do you have 3 years on IRR left? You've done your mandatory 8 of combined active/reserve time...where did you pick up an additional obligation? Or were you prior enlisted...?

You caught me coming back from the bar the other night. Must have jacked up my joke-detection apparatus.