http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=E3D24E8CB57F0333E6B1C2AD6D5B9C3A&ref=100
Times is strange. I wouldn't want to be anywhere else in the US at the moment but even the investors around here are acting like chickens with their heads cut off.In last week's CoStar Advisor retail story, titled "4,500 Store Closings .And Counting," CoStar tallied major store closings announced by retailers during the first half of 2008 and estimated nearly 7,100 store closing announcements would be made by the end of this year, which would surpass the high recorded by ICSC in 2001.
Our story appeared the night before the bankruptcy filing of fast-expanding discount apparel retailer, Steve & Barry's. Then, on Monday, ICSC released a report saying it expects 144,000 stores to physically close in 2008. The retail real estate trade group's latest report expanded the scope of its previous report, and included unannounced store closings, small store closures, closures by private and "mom and pop" owners, and estimated actual store closures, the data being partly gleaned from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' business establishments data.
If the revised ICSC estimate is realized at the end of this year, the increase in store closures would up 7% over last year -- the highest increase seen in 14 years. ICSC qualified the statement by saying it expects "a similarly large increase in new retail store openings" this year. While this is welcome news, such openings likely won't create a balancing effect when you combine the trend of shopping center vacancy consistently rising with nearly 76 million square feet of shopping center space estimated to deliver in 2008 and another 79.5 million in 2009 (according to CoStar Property Professional's Analytics feature).