[valve bouncer]

Very interesting write up on the problem or perhaps hyped pseudo problem here... I'm not even remotely enough of an expert to critique it. but his reasoning seems pretty valid on many points.
http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

Friend of yours VB?

No mate, I have no friends.
I'm not sure of the situation regarding the nuclear facilities but I certainly don't trust the J government to tell the truth. Regardless of circumstances, when there's huge explosions at a nuclear power station people are going to get squeaky bums.

 

[DaveW]

Regardless of circumstances, when there's huge explosions at a nuclear power station people are going to get squeaky bums.

Faaarkin no **** mate!!!
Everyone that can must be running for it, or getting ready to run for it in that town!

 

[jimmydean]

We have an awful lot of land that isn't on a fault line. We won't get nukular power in Cali, but most of the rest of the country...

I've been saying that for years. Wyoming isn't too good for much, put some there and pipe it out to states that matter.

 

[sanjuro]

No mate, I have no friends.
I'm not sure of the situation regarding the nuclear facilities but I certainly don't trust the J government to tell the truth. Regardless of circumstances, when there's huge explosions at a nuclear power station people are going to get squeaky bums.

It seems hard to cover this one up.

 

[BikeMike]

We have an awful lot of land that isn't on a fault line. We won't get nukular power in Cali, but most of the rest of the country...

There is nuclear power in CA. San Onofre, I'm sure, will be doing some additional reviews. Diablo Canyon is probably high enough up to do fairly well in a decent sized tsunami.


edit: Also, in Japan, once they start using seawater for cooling, they've probably written off the reactor. Saltwater is rather corrosive, and the decontamination/recommissioning process is not usually economically viable.

 

[sanjuro]

Very interesting write up on the problem or perhaps hyped pseudo problem here... I'm not even remotely enough of an expert to critique it. but his reasoning seems pretty valid on many points.
http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

Friend of yours VB?

* The plant is safe now and will stay safe.
* Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else.
* Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probably give up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again.
* There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide does not “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine will be removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage.
* The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials (Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities.
* The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” cooling water
* The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change.
* Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years.
* The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse)
* (Updated) I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. 11 of Japan’s 55 nuclear reactors in different plants were shut down and will have to be inspected, directly reducing the nation’s nuclear power generating capacity by 20%, with nuclear power accounting for about 30% of the national total power generation capacity. I have not looked into possible consequences for other nuclear plants not directly affected. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. I am not familiar with Japan’s energy supply chain for oil, gas and coal, and what damage the harbors, refinery, storage and transportation networks have suffered, as well as damage to the national distribution grid. All of that will increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to power shortages during peak demand and reconstruction efforts, in Japan.
* This all is only part of a much bigger picture. Emergency response has to deal with shelter, drinking water, food and medical care, transportation and communication infrastructure, as well as electricity supply. In a world of lean supply chains, we are looking at some major challenges in all of these areas.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Later, a top Japanese official said the fuel rods in all three of the most troubled nuclear reactors appeared to be melting.
Of all these troubles, the drop in water levels at Unit 2 had officials the most worried.

"Units 1 and 3 are at least somewhat stabilized for the time being," said Nuclear and Industrial Agency official Ryohei Shiomi "Unit 2 now requires all our effort and attention."

In some ways, the explosion at Unit 3 was not as dire as it might seem.

The blast actually lessened pressure building inside the troubled reactor, and officials said the all-important containment shell - thick concrete armor around the reactor - had not been damaged. In addition, officials said radiation levels remained within legal limits, though anyone left within 12 miles (20 kilometers) of the scene was ordered to remain indoors.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_JAPAN_EARTHQUAKE_NUCLEAR_CRISIS?SITE=WVEC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-03-14-12-02-31

 

[valve bouncer]

* The plant is safe now an...........other stuff written by a guy many, many thousands of miles away from danger

Meanwhile back in Japan.

 

[Silver]

edit: Also, in Japan, once they start using seawater for cooling, they've probably written off the reactor. Saltwater is rather corrosive, and the decontamination/recommissioning process is not usually economically viable.

That's like driving a car into a lake-it's only a good idea if the car happens to be on fire at the time. Otherwise, it's a course of action you don't want to take.

 

[kidwoo]

That's like driving a car into a lake-it's only a good idea if the car happens to be on fire at the time. Otherwise, it's a course of action you don't want to take.

..........and an entirely accurate analogy




When I heard that upon getting back into town every claim of 'just fine' and 'contained' sounded about as reasonable as the claims the US military made in the early 90s about the accuracy of the Iraq bombing campaign.

nevermind sanjuro's nonsense........


I don't know what to tell ya VB. You're old enough to remember the similar events in history that I do.

 

[sanjuro]

So I'm no nuclear expert. Neither are you and apparently neither is Doctor Oehmen.

 

[ohio]

There is nuclear power in CA.

As sometimes I forget that California includes more than just the coast and the Sierras... wishful thinking on my part. Anyway, point still stands - I don't see much resistance to nuclear in the US as long as it's a reasonable distance from fault lines, flood plains, and rich people. Especially once we start getting jealous of nuclear plants popping up in China...fear of falling behind trumps fear of the word "nuclear" based on the legacy of 50s era cold war thinking anyday.

 

[velocipedist]

So whats the tally now?

Hydrogen explosions at reactors #1 #2 #3 and #4. Readings 400 mSv at the plant. Per wikipedia: Smoking 1.5 packs/day = 13 mSv/year.

Detection of cesium and iodine in Ibaraki 5.8 microSv and Tochigi 0.86 microSv. Tochigi is 20 times normal. Using the BED thats 8 1/2 bananas.

per Secretary Edano "we are currently refilling the containment vessel water level above the fuel rods in reactors #1 #2 and #3 , reactors #1 and #3 and stable with water levels rising. Whether #2 can be considered stable we need look to our previous experiences. Due to the tsunami our cooling capabilities are not working well and the temperatures of reactors #5 and #6 are increasing. We are working hard to prevent another hydrogen explosion like the one that happened to reactor #4".

damn, now I just wish I could actually think the numbers they are telling us anything but bull****.... So next we get to watch a critical meltdown as the rods melt through the containment vessel of #4 while #5 and #6 blow up and disperse the contaminant how far???

 

[Mo(n)arch]

So, this was released a few minutes ago:

Reactor #4 has two 8m² holes. Radiation is directly released. Assume the worst.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

As sometimes I forget that California includes more than just the coast and the Sierras... wishful thinking on my part. Anyway, point still stands - I don't see much resistance to nuclear in the US as long as it's a reasonable distance from fault lines, flood plains, and rich people. Especially once we start getting jealous of nuclear plants popping up in China...fear of falling behind trumps fear of the word "nuclear" based on the legacy of 50s era cold war thinking anyday.

The Indian Point (NY) reactor is sited on a fault...

 

[worship_mud]

We have an awful lot of land that isn't on a fault line. We won't get nukular power in Cali, but most of the rest of the country...

say what????

this is San Onofre, in the direct neighbourhood of several tectonic faults, the christianitos fault is a few hundred yards away.

and this is Diablo Canyon

the probability of a quake of a magnitude of 6.7 or more until the year 2032 is 99,7%.

good luck to all CA residents.

 

[velocipedist]

So, this was released a few minutes ago:

Reactor #4 has two 8m² holes. Radiation is directly released. Assume the worst.

link?

 

[worship_mud]

link?

[10.38 clock] in the wall of reactor 4 of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, I gape two eight-square-foot holes. The news agency Jiji Press reported, citing the Nuclear Security Agency of the Ministry of Industry. Power plant operator Tepco had reported to the authorities, the holes in the northwest wall of reactor.

spiegel.de, via google translator.

edit: it's not 8 qs ft as google says, but 8 sq meters.

 

[velocipedist]

thanks I found the original Japanese

I guess I would disagree with Monarch though.. While yes the walls of the reactor are important, they are the secondary containment and not the first (metal containment vessel) containment. They think when Reactor #3 blew up part the debris caused these two holes.

****ty situation, but not as bad as I thought, of course since they are already getting higher level readings around #4 it might mean the vessel has been punctured.... in which case

 

[valve bouncer]

So I'm no nuclear expert. Neither are you and apparently neither is Doctor Oehmen.

You're completely missing the point. I'm sure the points you made above are all valid and fine but at the moment people only want to hear a version of this;

Jules: I don't wanna hear about no mother****in' ifs. All I wanna hear from your ass is, You ain't got no problem, Jules. I'm on the mother****er. Go back in there, chill them ******* out and wait for the calvary which should be coming directly.
Marsellus: You ain't got no problem, Jules. I'm on the mother****er. Go back in there, chill them ******* out and wait for the Wolf who should be coming directly.

 

[Westy]

A coworker of mine actually worked in the US nuclear industry performing earthquake testing on reactor bits. He says that US Nuke plants are designed to remain fully functional during the largest historical or expected earthquake and capable of safe shut down for an event twice as strong as the largest expected. 30 years ago tectonics weren't as well understood and potential quake levels were probably underestimated. We have a much better understanding of what is possible, new Nuke facilities are going to be pretty safe during an earthquake.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

...level readings around #4...

Fire in the used fuel pool as I understand it, also damage to torus.

 

[eaterofdog]

It's like people who are picky about food, they will eat fvcking raw grubs after starving for two weeks. You are only choosy if you have choices.

Energy is probably going to get much more expensive in the future, as easily accessible fossil fuels dwindle. It might be a long time, but that there uranium is going to be used sooner or later. It's a developed technology.

How many will suffer from the mercury and such in coal? Someone's going to get it either way, it's just localized and easily observable with nukes.

 

[Silver]

A coworker of mine actually worked in the US nuclear industry performing earthquake testing on reactor bits. He says that US Nuke plants are designed to remain fully functional during the largest historical or expected earthquake and capable of safe shut down for an event twice as strong as the largest expected. 30 years ago tectonics weren't as well understood and potential quake levels were probably underestimated. We have a much better understanding of what is possible, new Nuke facilities are going to be pretty safe during an earthquake.

Well, thank God we don't have any old ones in vulnerable areas

Mabye sanjuro's supply chain engineer can do the drawings on them?

 

[stoney]

Copy/paste from blog

The writer is not there, and is an engineer. Not a nuclear scientist or nuclear engineer. Just an fyi.

 

[sanjuro]

The writer is not there, and is an engineer. Not a nuclear scientist or nuclear engineer. Just an fyi.

Yep, I knew that. I gotta see what he has to say today. Sorry?

 

[kidwoo]

So I'm no nuclear expert. Neither are you and apparently neither is Doctor Oehmen.

But I know and have been talking to someone who most certainly is.

I also know enough that once they start grabbing buckets and making laps to the neighbor's pool, things are not fine and dandy.......or 'contained' to use a technical term.

VB: what's going on over there in terms of telling people to get the fvck out of dodge?

edit: NM....saw the other thread

 

[syadasti]

A coworker of mine actually worked in the US nuclear industry performing earthquake testing on reactor bits. He says that US Nuke plants are designed to remain fully functional during the largest historical or expected earthquake and capable of safe shut down for an event twice as strong as the largest expected. 30 years ago tectonics weren't as well understood and potential quake levels were probably underestimated. We have a much better understanding of what is possible, new Nuke facilities are going to be pretty safe during an earthquake.

That's not very much leeway - just a .2 magnitude higher than rated is twice as strong. Each magnitude over the rated capacity is a tenfold increase in strength.

 

[fortenndu]

I'm not going to read past the first few posts so this might have already been said but Japan could have taken more precautions; the back up generators were outside of the seawalls and got destroyed by the tsunami. This should not and hopefully won't have a large impact on the progression of nuclear power.

 

[kidwoo]

I'm not going to read past the first few posts so this might have already been said but Japan could have taken more precautions; the back up generators were outside of the seawalls and got destroyed by the tsunami. This should not and hopefully won't have a large impact on the progression of nuclear power.

Yeah and the BP rig in the gulf could have been better maintained.

People can sit around all day long and build the next facility to deal with the problems that took down the last but at a certain point, the argument that certain methods are just too costly to mess with when something goes wrong has validity.

And as silver pointed out: This is Japan we're talking about. Not kentucky.

 

[Mo(n)arch]

I'm not going to read past the first few posts so this might have already been said but Japan could have taken more precautions; the back up generators were outside of the seawalls and got destroyed by the tsunami

Well afterwards it's always easy to say what was wrong...

 

[eaterofdog]

Captain Hindsight, hero for a modern age!

 

[Silver]

Who could have ever predicted that an off shore earthquake in a very active seismic area could cause a tsunami for an island nation?

The only thing preventing this from becoming an American version of a clusterfvck is a memo from a few years back warning about backup generators at the site being knocked out in case of a tsunami...

 

[goofy]

Who could have ever predicted that an off shore earthquake in a very active seismic area could cause a tsunami for an island nation?

The only thing preventing this from becoming an American version of a clusterfvck is a memo from a few years back warning about backup generators at the site being knocked out in case of a tsunami...

This is Japan they are better at hiding those kind of memos unlike us (look at how long it took Toyota to acknowledge the gas pedal problem)

 

[kidwoo]

The only thing preventing this from becoming an American version of a clusterfvck is a memo from a few years back warning about backup generators at the site being knocked out in case of a tsunami...

And that the owner of the plant had a safety inspector buddy in the goverment who liked to dress up as a geisha and play 'find the cobalt rod'.

 

[worship_mud]

The only thing preventing this from becoming an American version of a clusterfvck is a memo from a few years back warning about backup generators at the site being knocked out in case of a tsunami...

wouldn't be surprising, given TEPCO's history of cover-ups....

 

[kidwoo]

^And continuing that theme


http://www.truth-out.org/tokyo-electric-build-us-nuclear-plants-the-no-bs-info-japans-disastrous-nuclear-operators68457

Tokyo Electric to Build US Nuclear Plants: The No BS Info on Japan's Disastrous Nuclear Operators

 

[worship_mud]

The only thing preventing this from becoming an American version of a clusterfvck is a memo from a few years back warning about backup generators at the site being knocked out in case of a tsunami...

here you are!

excerpts vai google translate:

.....

The British newspaper "Daily Telegraph"reported on Tuesday on the controversial contents of the telegram. The unnamed representative of the IAEA claims, therefore the meeting of the G8 Nuclear Safety and Security Group (NSSG) of 3 to 4 December 2008 in Tokyo pointed to massive security holes.

In paragraph six of the paper says, nuclear experts have expressed concerns that the plants were not grown strong quake. The security arrangements in the more than 50 nuclear power plants in the country were inadequate. The expert, in his opinion from a "serious problem ". Accordingly, the guidelines for the protection of Japanese nuclear reactors from earthquakes in the past 35 years were only checked three times.

Earthquakes in the recent past have shown that in some cases, the basic design of the equipment was not suited to withstand stronger earthquakes, says the paper.

.....

 

[stoney]

EU energy chair just came out stating that it's worse than has been thought.

 

[sanjuro]

EU energy chair just came out stating that it's worse than has been thought.

I heard it is pretty bad.