I have to say, I'm of two minds on this...
On the one hand, all polls have been showing UNMITIGATED DISASTER for the Democrats. The latest RCP averages show WI, FL, KY all with big GOP leads, and smaller GOP leads for NV, CO, PA, and IL, and slim Democratic leads in CA, WA and WV. Who the F knows what's going to happen in AK, but both GOP candidates poll higher than the Democrat.
However, I'm also surprised at the following, any/all of which might lessen the losses:
1) Ground game. Granted, it doesn't seem to be quite as big as in 2008 (we had probably a dozen volunteers come ask us if we'd voted then), but we've seen a LOT of people out canvassing the neighborhoods (and we live in a very Democratic area) getting people out to vote. I've seen nowhere near the same level of intensity from Republicans.
2) Weather. It's a fact that good weather helps the Democrats with turnout, and aside from the south there's hardly a drop of rain across the whole country.
3) High voter turnout. In my area (again, a highly Democratic one), the number of voters is running equal to or higher than in 2008. As of noon when I voted, turnout was already at ~31% of registered voters. No clue as to whether WI will get up to the 70% that it did in '08, but it's definitely high for an off-year.
4) Enthusiasm from people my age / FB friends. Ok, I'm 34 so I'm gradually getting to the category where voter percentage is higher than the sub-30 or sub-35 age group, but there has been a LOT of banter about politics the last day or two, from a lot of people I wouldn't have expected.
5) Facebook's "I voted" button. Currently 5 million FB users have voted, with updates as to which of your friends has (and, I guess, which of them haven't). Will this encourage younger people to get out and vote? True, FB is not only the younger generation anymore, as more and more adults have signed on, but I'd bet that the average FB user is younger and more Democratic on average.
So I don't know. Am I hoping against hope that Americans won't turn out to be as stupid as they portray on tv? Or could the pundits actually have it wrong by underestimating the youth vote?
edit: One of the reasons the high voter turnout is important is that the difference between registered voters (almost 50/50 prefer the GOP to Democrats) and likely voters (GOP leads by anywhere from a 7-15% margin) is MASSIVE. The higher the voter turnout, the more Democratic votes there will be.
On the one hand, all polls have been showing UNMITIGATED DISASTER for the Democrats. The latest RCP averages show WI, FL, KY all with big GOP leads, and smaller GOP leads for NV, CO, PA, and IL, and slim Democratic leads in CA, WA and WV. Who the F knows what's going to happen in AK, but both GOP candidates poll higher than the Democrat.
However, I'm also surprised at the following, any/all of which might lessen the losses:
1) Ground game. Granted, it doesn't seem to be quite as big as in 2008 (we had probably a dozen volunteers come ask us if we'd voted then), but we've seen a LOT of people out canvassing the neighborhoods (and we live in a very Democratic area) getting people out to vote. I've seen nowhere near the same level of intensity from Republicans.
2) Weather. It's a fact that good weather helps the Democrats with turnout, and aside from the south there's hardly a drop of rain across the whole country.
3) High voter turnout. In my area (again, a highly Democratic one), the number of voters is running equal to or higher than in 2008. As of noon when I voted, turnout was already at ~31% of registered voters. No clue as to whether WI will get up to the 70% that it did in '08, but it's definitely high for an off-year.
4) Enthusiasm from people my age / FB friends. Ok, I'm 34 so I'm gradually getting to the category where voter percentage is higher than the sub-30 or sub-35 age group, but there has been a LOT of banter about politics the last day or two, from a lot of people I wouldn't have expected.
5) Facebook's "I voted" button. Currently 5 million FB users have voted, with updates as to which of your friends has (and, I guess, which of them haven't). Will this encourage younger people to get out and vote? True, FB is not only the younger generation anymore, as more and more adults have signed on, but I'd bet that the average FB user is younger and more Democratic on average.
So I don't know. Am I hoping against hope that Americans won't turn out to be as stupid as they portray on tv? Or could the pundits actually have it wrong by underestimating the youth vote?
edit: One of the reasons the high voter turnout is important is that the difference between registered voters (almost 50/50 prefer the GOP to Democrats) and likely voters (GOP leads by anywhere from a 7-15% margin) is MASSIVE. The higher the voter turnout, the more Democratic votes there will be.
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