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...so when does the student loan crisis hit?

jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,147
13,317
Portland, OR
I was impressed with how they did it in Australia (or how I understood it, anyway). At the end of high school, you are tested. Ditch diggers go to ditch digging school, engineers go to engineering school, etc. Pretty much everyone goes to secondary school to learn SOMETHING and there are employers with those needs waiting for you to finish.
 
Jm_

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,972
9,636
AK
jimmydean said:
I was impressed with how they did it in Australia (or how I understood it, anyway). At the end of high school, you are tested. Ditch diggers go to ditch digging school, engineers go to engineering school, etc. Pretty much everyone goes to secondary school to learn SOMETHING and there are employers with those needs waiting for you to finish.
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What is I want to be an astronaut?
 
mandown

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
20,243
7,773
Transylvania 90210
Pesqueeb said:
I thought it was just because they are whiney, entitled, shits who won't stay off my lawn?
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Interesting. Consider the impact of automation on production. The machines may have eliminated jobs which would've been filled by people, in years of old. Functions which were critical and required a human. We are moving toward the singularity, and this is the cost.

There's also outsourcing to other countries, which wasn't an option in the way-back machine.

Production costs may get cheaper, but retail prices may not drop in proportion. So you eliminate the job, and still produce the product. Now you have a profitable product with fewer who can buy it. I believe Mr. Ford started paying his people more so they could afford his cars. Wonder when that will happen.
 
Pesqueeb

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,298
16,737
Riding the baggage carousel.
mandown said:
Interesting. Consider the impact of automation on production. The machines may have eliminated jobs which would've been filled by people, in years of old. Functions which were critical and required a human. We are moving toward the singularity, and this is the cost.

There's also outsourcing to other countries, which wasn't an option in the way-back machine.

Production costs may get cheaper, but retail prices may not drop in proportion. So you eliminate the job, and still produce the product. Now you have a profitable product with fewer who can buy it. I believe Mr. Ford started paying his people more so they could afford his cars. Wonder when that will happen.
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Socialist. :disgust:
 
Adventurous

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,319
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Crawlorado
Pesqueeb said:
I thought it was just because they are whiney, entitled, shits who won't stay off my lawn?
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Qualifier: I am a white, male, college educated member of the millenial generation who is, by my own estimations, within the upper quintile in terms of financial situation. Perhaps I don't have the right to complain or judge, but I'll throw in my two cents anyway.

While I acknowledge that there is little I can do to change the course of the world economy, I'm very concerned for the members of my and upcoming generations without a dramatic shift in attitudes. The pace of innovation has delivered some incredible gains in productivity and some seriously cool stuff, yet while the innovation benefits the whole, the economic benefit is disproportionately biased towards a smaller and smaller group of individuals. Economists posit that throughout history technological advances have simply shifted jobs from one sector to another, and maybe they will, but I have a hard time seeing how the rise of automation and computers that are able to proficiently complete complex tasks can create these alternate opportunities for an ever increasing population. I consider myself an optimist, but the realist in me sees a future that is more bleak for the general populous in this country.

I think that is what stings the most about the election of Donald Trump. I feel like the older generations sold our futures for a little slice of the past that is never coming back. The only way is forward and the one candidate who had the guts to recognize this was an old guy who was too radical for the establishment.
 
SkaredShtles

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,634
12,699
In a van.... down by the river
Adventurous said:
Qualifier: I am a white, male, college educated member of the millenial generation who is, by my own estimations, within the upper quintile in terms of financial situation. Perhaps I don't have the right to complain or judge, but I'll throw in my two cents anyway.
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Don't sweat it, man - EVERY generation has had a similar lament... and it won't be nearly as bad as you fear.

Or maybe yours is the generation that will FINALLY pay the price.

Could go either way from where I'm sitting.

:homer:
 
jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,147
13,317
Portland, OR
Adventurous said:
Economists posit that throughout history technological advances have simply shifted jobs from one sector to another, and maybe they will, but I have a hard time seeing how the rise of automation and computers that are able to proficiently complete complex tasks can create these alternate opportunities for an ever increasing population. I consider myself an optimist, but the realist in me sees a future that is more bleak for the general populous in this country.
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The issue is automation replaces X number of jobs that used to be manual. But designing/building/running the automation creates Y number of new jobs. X>Y for sure, but the level of education, experience, knowledge to design/build/run the automation is higher than the manual job it replaced.

This goes back to my GMT point of finding a slot in STEM or a trade moving forward for the next gen. As automation grows, the high paying low education jobs are what they replace first.
 
Adventurous

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,319
8,880
Crawlorado
jimmydean said:
The issue is automation replaces X number of jobs that used to be manual. But designing/building/running the automation creates Y number of new jobs. X>Y for sure, but the level of education, experience, knowledge to design/build/run the automation is higher than the manual job it replaced.

This goes back to my GMT point of finding a slot in STEM or a trade moving forward for the next gen. As automation grows, the high paying low education jobs are what they replace first.
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Relevant to the conversation:

https://hbr.org/2015/06/the-great-decoupling

X will most definitely be greater than Y. I'll be curious to see if I'm around long enough to see the era when the machines begin to design machines. We'll invent ourselves out of a purpose.
 
Pesqueeb

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,298
16,737
Riding the baggage carousel.
X-post to the bro-dozer bubble thread.

Still, there were some areas of concern. Auto loans have ballooned 44 percent to $1.17 trillion since the last peak in household debt nine years ago. And a greater percentage of those loans have fallen 90 days or more overdue: 3.8 percent now, up from 3.3 percent two years ago. Still, that’s down from a recent peak of 5.3 percent in late 2010.
Student loans are also a potential trouble spot: They topped $1.3 trillion in the first quarter, soaring by 120 percent since 2008. Nearly 11 percent of that debt is 90 days overdue or more. The Fed estimates that the true figure could be double that amount, because many borrowers are able to defer loan payments while they continue their studies or if they are unemployed
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Pesqueeb

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,298
16,737
Riding the baggage carousel.
Toshi said:
$200 or so actual savings on average per that article. One of the most worthless of the deductions out there.
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I don't know a single teacher working at my wife's school who wouldn't gladly take that 200 dollars.

Edit: plus, the amount is almost beside the point. The plan is to take however small amount from a teacher, nurse, park employee, whatever, with a stack of student debt and given it to hedge fund operators and Walmart owners. That's kind of fucked up.
 
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Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,396
20,187
Sleazattle
Pesqueeb said:
I don't know a single teacher working at my wife's school who wouldn't gladly take that 200 dollars.

Edit: plus, the amount is almost beside the point. The plan is to take however small amount from a teacher, nurse, park employee, whatever, with a stack of student debt and given it to hedge fund operators and Walmart owners. That's kind of fucked up.
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Someone think of the children who can't inherit the full fortune of their millionaire parents.
 
mandown

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
20,243
7,773
Transylvania 90210
Pesqueeb said:
I don't know a single teacher working at my wife's school who wouldn't gladly take that 200 dollars.

Edit: plus, the amount is almost beside the point. The plan is to take however small amount from a teacher, nurse, park employee, whatever, with a stack of student debt and given it to hedge fund operators and Walmart owners. That's kind of fucked up.
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Pesqueeb said:
I don't know a single teacher working at my wife's school who wouldn't gladly take that 200 dollars.

Edit: plus, the amount is almost beside the point. The plan is to take however small amount from a teacher, nurse, park employee, whatever, with a stack of student debt and given it to hedge fund operators and Walmart owners. That's kind of fucked up.
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12 million taxpayers coughing up an average of $202 is $2.4 billion dollars moved into the government hands. Add in the 1.4% tax they want to pop on the endowments. Gotta wonder where all this cash is going. Feds raked in $3.2 trillion in 2015 tax revenue. So $2.4 billion more seems pretty insignificant.

No taxation without representation. Sounds like the working class must be in store for some extra special representation in the near future.


Edit - I was gong to delete my poopdeck requote, but I think it's funnier if I don't.
 
Pesqueeb

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,298
16,737
Riding the baggage carousel.
mandown said:
Since "middle class" income is up to $450,000 per year (still not sure if that is gross or net), $200 a year seems like a very small price for the average American to pay for the making great of this great country again.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.newsweek.com/tax-cuts-republicans-middle-class-trump-701094?amp=1
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When America is Great Again, I assume I can count on you to hook me up*?

Extensive offshore dealings by Donald Trump’s cabinet members, advisers and donors, including substantial payments from a firm co-owned by Vladimir Putin’s son-in-law to the shipping group of the US commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross.
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*With a tax shelter, not some damn meat hook, thanks.
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,596
7,245
Colorado
Pesqueeb said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/subprime-auto-defaults-are-soaring-and-pe-firms-have-no-way-out#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/subprime-auto-defaults-are-soaring-and-pe-firms-have-no-way-out
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On this thread...

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/12/raw-data-the-sp-500-price-earnings-ratio/

Those orange lines are the beginning of recessions.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/11/chart-of-the-day-the-us-economy-has-finally-caught-up/

Article" said:
CBO is basically buying into the secular stagnation theory here. The recession, along with demographic factors, has caused a permanent slowdown in the potential capacity of the US economy. Slow growth is the new normal.
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Remind me again what this new tax bill is supposed to be supported by? Right... 4% growth. FTS.
 
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