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...so when does the student loan crisis hit?

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
27,142
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Riding the baggage carousel.
I’m curious how the tide would rise if debt was forgiven. More spending money in the hands of the working class could drive up prices. If a group of people aren’t servicing (fully or partially) their debt, what else would they spend their money on, and how will the supply and demand curves react? Cars & houses (also common debt sources). Groceries & clothing. Would that stuff all get bumped up in price? Or maybe the cash redirects to credit card debt service. It’d be interesting to watch.
Forbes would go out of business not being able to publish stories about how "millennials are killing ------------"?
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,551
338
Warsaw :/
I’m curious how the tide would rise if debt was forgiven. More spending money in the hands of the working class could drive up prices. If a group of people aren’t servicing (fully or partially) their debt, what else would they spend their money on, and how will the supply and demand curves react? Cars & houses (also common debt sources). Groceries & clothing. Would that stuff all get bumped up in price? Or maybe the cash redirects to credit card debt service. It’d be interesting to watch.
If debt was forgiven it's a one time deal so I doubt there would be inflation. If student debt became cheaper and young people had more money yeah you would have some inflation but it would not be proportional. A good example is Poland. Every parent got 500PLN for every kid after first. 500/month that is. 500pln sounds low for US citizens but have in mind close to half of Polish citizens earn less than 2600PLN/Month. Some grocery items got inflated like butter but those may be related to other shit happening on the commodities markets etc. On highly price competitive markets prices haven't went up. My jurb market - cinemas actually are fighting to get the prices lower. Housing inflation didn't accelerate. Overal inflation is only slightly higher despite it being a huge stimulus to the economy (tourism and culture got a huge boost. Cinemas got +20% 2months after it was introduced and that increased attendance stayed. Probably what saved my stupid bosses from losing a lot of money)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
26,132
1,747
Warren's plan for up-to-$50k forgiveness phases out at $250k.

:grumpy:

No thanks, Obama
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,551
338
Warsaw :/
Waiting for the UBI vs. Student Debt Forgiveness debates.
That's actually a good debate but as much as I like Andrew Yang his fans are a bit annoying so I'm afraid of internet shitstorms. UBI funded by capital tax is inevitable though Yang's most common prediction about automation taking jobs is wrong. Ford Ceo recently admitted they overvalued how big self-driving cars will be in the near future and their use will be limited in the foreseeable future.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
13,683
1,193
Transylvania 90210
That's actually a good debate but as much as I like Andrew Yang his fans are a bit annoying so I'm afraid of internet shitstorms. UBI funded by capital tax is inevitable though Yang's most common prediction about automation taking jobs is wrong. Ford Ceo recently admitted they overvalued how big self-driving cars will be in the near future and their use will be limited in the foreseeable future.
Shitstorms is what I expect. I think you’ll see Democrats fight themselves as UBI theoretically benefits all citizens, while Student Debt only benefits those with debt (and fit the income criteria).

In either case, these issues are fodder for Trump tweets about liberals with free money fantasies. While he may be a moron and a madman, he can stir his supporters up with issues like these.

Personally, I think universal health care is the most reasonable sell. It covers a wide group of people in need, including those with student debt. It covers young and old. I’d suspect people who “need” UBI would spend a significant amount of it on health care, so it’s a bit of an offset either way. Unfortunately, I’m sure there’s also a huge lobbying effort against this industry-specific policy.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
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I imagine there will be an income threshold that voids eligibility and sows discontent along the lines of toshi's thoughts re: school debt.
Absolutely. The argument then becomes about the threshold. Then you have supporters of the idea get turned off. If that idea is the keystone of your campaign, then you just lost a supporter, and narrowed the target demographic. I wouldn’t base a campaign on altruistic support of a significant financial policy change for an issue like this. The right will generally bash it (even if they benefit from it), and you’ll have a harder time unifying the left and middle around the issue.

...though, I’m not sure if taking a sensible position is the best weapon against this incumbent, or if radical change is the best tactic. After all, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. You can end up with a tiger-by-the-tail situation. Win on a platform of sweeping change, and you’ll be stuck with a leader who is going to make sweeping changes.
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,551
338
Warsaw :/
Shitstorms is what I expect. I think you’ll see Democrats fight themselves as UBI theoretically benefits all citizens, while Student Debt only benefits those with debt (and fit the income criteria).

In either case, these issues are fodder for Trump tweets about liberals with free money fantasies. While he may be a moron and a madman, he can stir his supporters up with issues like these.

Personally, I think universal health care is the most reasonable sell. It covers a wide group of people in need, including those with student debt. It covers young and old. I’d suspect people who “need” UBI would spend a significant amount of it on health care, so it’s a bit of an offset either way. Unfortunately, I’m sure there’s also a huge lobbying effort against this industry-specific policy.
If he attacks Yang or Bernie he will lose. They are too prepared and will simply easily focus the discussion on topic and point out where he's wrong. Warren is prepared but I don't she is a strong debater.

As for Universal health care. yeah it's the most reasonable sell because most of the world has had it for a century but I don't think US should be playing politics of "ok let's just be 100 years behind the civilized world". Left wing ideas are surging in Popularity. Trump was elected mostly because of anti system, anti establishment sentiments risen from failings of current market economy so all of those are doable. Listen to Yang talk about UBI. He has some good arguments even if the car argument failed.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
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Transylvania 90210
If he attacks Yang or Bernie he will lose. They are too prepared and will simply easily focus the discussion on topic and point out where he's wrong. Warren is prepared but I don't she is a strong debater.

As for Universal health care. yeah it's the most reasonable sell because most of the world has had it for a century but I don't think US should be playing politics of "ok let's just be 100 years behind the civilized world". Left wing ideas are surging in Popularity. Trump was elected mostly because of anti system, anti establishment sentiments risen from failings of current market economy so all of those are doable. Listen to Yang talk about UBI. He has some good arguments even if the car argument failed.
I wouldn’t translate an academic win of an argument to a political win. We’ve seen spin doctors work magic, and the general public vote in unpredictable ways.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
26,132
1,747
I imagine there will be an income threshold that voids eligibility and sows discontent along the lines of toshi's thoughts re: school debt.
In reality if this idea ever hatched I think you'd be correct, but as phrased by Yang there's no such cutout.

https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-ubi/

Every U.S. citizen over the age of 18 would receive $1,000 a month, regardless of income or employment status, free and clear. No jumping through hoops. Yes, this means you and everyone you know would receive a check for $1,000 a month every month starting in January 2021.

What would you do with $1,000 a month on top of whatever you now make? Let’s find out.
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,551
338
Warsaw :/
I wouldn’t translate an academic win of an argument to a political win. We’ve seen spin doctors work magic, and the general public vote in unpredictable ways.
I am not saying academically. Yang is a debate champion. Bernie is a good debater. Not in terms of wining academically but in the eyes of the viewers. This is why I said Warren is well prepared but she is not a strong debater. She has problems winning people over.

Also there was no magic. Hillary had a bigger negative vote than Trump acording to Polls. She neglected some states she could have won and Trump is an anti establishment vote. It's something that is happening all around the world - Brexit, Hungary, Poland, Philipines, France (not won but strong for Le Pen), Holland, The rise of AFD in Germany etc etc.

Trump isn't some great work by spin doctors. He is a symptom of a global economic problem
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
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Transylvania 90210
In reality if this idea ever hatched I think you'd be correct, but as phrased by Yang there's no such cutout.

https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-ubi/
So the rising tide lifts all boats. The poverty line moves up by the UBI number. Prices adjust accordingly. The “poor” probably see little improvement in lifestyle, though appear to do better numerically, while the poverty line really just moved up by the same amount for everyone already at it. The middle and upper middle who already have some disposable income now have a little more of it, and might see a bit of lifestyle improvement. The rich and wealthy probably don’t need it, and simply throw the extra on the pile and continue to invest and purchase luxury items. That’s my oversimplified take on it.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
13,683
1,193
Transylvania 90210
Interesting numbers from this blog.
https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
44E5562B-38D2-4707-A1EF-AEB3DAF9255B.png


There was a study going around recently stating people achieve happiness at around $75k, and Money.com has a story saying the think closer to $95k helps for more long-term goals.

The DWYDJ link has income by percentile and shows $96k as about 69% of the population. $83k is about 63%. So that means about 63% of the population would probably get closer to happiness and about 6% would get pushed up above the “threshold.” I’m not sure where the other side of the numbers swing. At what level does happiness tip into unhappiness? How many people get lifted above that point?
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
5,082
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In reality if this idea ever hatched I think you'd be correct, but as phrased by Yang there's no such cutout.

https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-ubi/
Interesting spin on the VAT, which will pay for this (from his site):

A Value-Added Tax (VAT) is a tax on the production of goods or services a business produces. It is a fair tax and it makes it much harder for large corporations, who are experts at hiding profits and income, to avoid paying their fair share. A VAT is nothing new. 160 out of 193 countries in the world already have a Value-Added Tax or something similar, including all of Europe which has an average VAT of 20 percent.

The EU VAT is a consumption tax, not a production tax.
Not only will these taxes be ultimately born by the consumer, it will effectively make US products/services less competitive in the market.