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stage 16 predictions?

The Toninator

Muffin
Jul 6, 2001
5,436
17
High(ts) Htown
heres a winning plan (against the disco destroyers) accelerate pace on the Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.7 % - 1 Category on the opening slopes. Don’t ‘attack’ pick the DD’s tactic where they just push up the pace and keep pushing till you shell everyone off the back. Slow the pace back down 3/4's of the way up.
Pick up the pace again on the opening slopes of the Col d'Aubisque - 16.5 km climb to 7 % - H Category. 1/2 way rest. 3/4’s to top ATTACK Mfer ATTACK!!!.
Charge all the way to the end. this is your last chance my friends, make it a good one.

 

MTB_Rob_NC

What do I have to do to get you in this car TODAY?
Nov 15, 2002
3,428
0
Charlotte, NC
The Toninator said:
heres a winning plan (against the disco destroyers) accelerate pace on the Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.7 % - 1 Category on the opening slopes. Don’t ‘attack’ pick the DD’s tactic where they just push up the pace and keep pushing till you shell everyone off the back. Slow the pace back down 3/4's of the way up.
Pick up the pace again on the opening slopes of the Col d'Aubisque - 16.5 km climb to 7 % - H Category. 1/2 way rest. 3/4’s to top ATTACK Mfer ATTACK!!!.
Charge all the way to the end. this is your last chance my friends, make it a good one.
No one has that motor, but other then that, good plan. :cool:
 

Reactor

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2005
3,976
1
Chandler, AZ, USA
The Toninator said:
heres a winning plan (against the disco destroyers) accelerate pace on the Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.7 % - 1 Category on the opening slopes. Don’t ‘attack’ pick the DD’s tactic where they just push up the pace and keep pushing till you shell everyone off the back. Slow the pace back down 3/4's of the way up.
Pick up the pace again on the opening slopes of the Col d'Aubisque - 16.5 km climb to 7 % - H Category. 1/2 way rest. 3/4’s to top ATTACK Mfer ATTACK!!!.
Charge all the way to the end. this is your last chance my friends, make it a good one.


This sounds more or less like the last two or three stages, and Lances lead is larger than ever. I think it's the best prossible plan but it won't work, because Lance is still faster than Vinko, Ullrich, Kloden, Rassmussen or Basso. The Tmobile guys trip over each other, and the other guys are the only people on their team capable up keeping up with the lead group.
 

Jeremy R

<b>x</b>
Nov 15, 2001
9,701
1,056
behind you with a snap pop
Its kinda cute.
You can plan your ass off, but a whole group of Honda Civics can't attack a Porshe 911.
Their only "real" plan is to put a 4 leaf clover in their pocket and hope for a mishap.
 

DRB

unemployed bum
Oct 24, 2002
15,242
0
Watchin' you. Writing it all down.
Jeremy R said:
Its kinda cute.
You can plan your ass off, but a whole group of Honda Civics can't attack a Porshe 911.
Their only "real" plan is to put a 4 leaf clover in their pocket and hope for a mishap.
Or have a teamate launch an actual physical attack on Lance BUT you better do that after Padrnos is gone, 'cause that scary f'er looks like he wants to kills someone.
 

The Toninator

Muffin
Jul 6, 2001
5,436
17
High(ts) Htown
yea yea yea and 'everyone has a plan till they get hit' well its .4 seconds into the first round Aurele "Al" Couture and your about to get smashed, what you gonna do?
 

Sherpa

Basking in fail.
Jan 28, 2004
2,240
0
Arkansaw
With that long of downhill/flat to the finish, any attack can easily be neutralized by the finish.
 

Reactor

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2005
3,976
1
Chandler, AZ, USA
DRB said:
Or have a teamate launch an actual physical attack on Lance BUT you better do that after Padrnos is gone, 'cause that scary f'er looks like he wants to kills someone.

That might well be the most entertaining tour moment in history.
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
10,735
1,247
NORCAL is the hizzle
Sherpa said:
With that long of downhill/flat to the finish, any attack can easily be neutralized by the finish.
Not sure about "easily" but I generally agree. Plus Lance and Discovery/Postal are usually better than their rivals after a rest day. It will be hard for anyone even close on GC to get away tomorrow. Unless something happens to Lance, they're fighting for stage wins.
 

DRB

unemployed bum
Oct 24, 2002
15,242
0
Watchin' you. Writing it all down.
The Toninator said:
not if you do it exaclty the way i said. i'm the cycling god please take note. :mumble:
What I think would be interesting is if the teams (t-mobile, CSC, Rabobank et. al) quit worrying about the top step and started focusing on each other. In essence that is what Basso has been doing. They have been saying they have been going after Lance (cause it makes them sound all gangster) but the reality everything CSC has been doing is about attacking Ullrich. I THINK that Ullrich could make up the margin to Rasmussen in the time trial but if I were him I'd still want to cut that 3 minutes down a bit. Plus Basso MIGHT be a bit tired after his last two days so it might be a good opportunity to go after him.

That would make an interesting day.

BUT what I figure is going to happen again is that another break will go, Discovery will stuff another rider in it (Savoldelli maybe especially with that downhill) and then sit back and watch what happens. Which will be the others flinging themselves in an unorganized mess at Lance and Discovery. With a very good chance of another Discovery rider picking up a stage win and get called unclassy by Westy.... ;)
 

The Toninator

Muffin
Jul 6, 2001
5,436
17
High(ts) Htown
DRB said:
What I think would be interesting is if the teams (t-mobile, CSC, Rabobank et. al) quit worrying about the top step and started focusing on each other. In essence that is what Basso has been doing. They have been saying they have been going after Lance (cause it makes them sound all gangster) but the reality everything CSC has been doing is about attacking Ullrich. I THINK that Ullrich could make up the margin to Rasmussen in the time trial but if I were him I'd still want to cut that 3 minutes down a bit. Plus Basso MIGHT be a bit tired after his last two days so it might be a good opportunity to go after him.

That would make an interesting day.

BUT what I figure is going to happen again is that another break will go, Discovery will stuff another rider in it (Savoldelli maybe especially with that downhill) and then sit back and watch what happens. Which will be the others flinging themselves in an unorganized mess at Lance and Discovery. With a very good chance of another Discovery rider picking up a stage win and get called unclassy by Westy.... ;)
very well put. so basically what your are saying is they need to ATTACK? are we going to have to start checking with Westy about protocol and racing/pack etiquette?
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,980
22,020
Sleazattle
The Toninator said:
very well put. so basically what your are saying is they need to ATTACK? are we going to have to start checking with Westy about protocol and racing/pack etiquette?
When you get the invite to ride for a Tour team, feel free to consult me. ;)
 

Heidi

Der hund ist laut und braun
Aug 22, 2001
10,184
797
Bend, Oregon
I'm gonna give it to some no name that is 50 minutes down. Discovery will just let them go. I'd like to see Horner win a stage. :)
 

Heidi

Der hund ist laut und braun
Aug 22, 2001
10,184
797
Bend, Oregon
The Toninator said:
your boi has been in the news quite a bit this tour.

Yah, I have been really impressed with him. Here domestically he rocked the last few years, but you just never know what will happen internationally until you get the chance to test yourself. Good for him.
 

The Toninator

Muffin
Jul 6, 2001
5,436
17
High(ts) Htown
Heidi said:
Yah, I have been really impressed with him. Here domestically he rocked the last few years, but you just never know what will happen internationally until you get the chance to test yourself. Good for him.
well i heard on the webcast the other day that he actually went euro a while back and came back home for some reason (maybe not good results?) did good and gave europe a second chance.
 

DRB

unemployed bum
Oct 24, 2002
15,242
0
Watchin' you. Writing it all down.
Heidi said:
Yah, I have been really impressed with him. Here domestically he rocked the last few years, but you just never know what will happen internationally until you get the chance to test yourself. Good for him.
He has definately showed well for himself, hanging a lot longer than most would have figured (me included). But you can definately tell he hit the wall, but that really had to be expected and is certainly nothing to be ashamed of.

That being said if he has the legs for it tomorrow would be a good day for him.

Love the new signature.... have you read "Lance Armstrong's War" yet? Its good.
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
10,735
1,247
NORCAL is the hizzle
Actually Horner might be a good call, Disco sure isn't worried about him. If they had kept cranking the other day instead of dicking around, he could have had first or second on the stage. Looking good and you know he's stoked to be in the Tour.
 

The Toninator

Muffin
Jul 6, 2001
5,436
17
High(ts) Htown
Heidi said:
I haven't, I'll check it out.
the pantani book was 'ok.' that's about the best rating i'll give it. you do come away with some respect for him.

i have to get the war book and 23 days in july still. I'm almost through with the other book and it's pretty good.
 

Heidi

Der hund ist laut und braun
Aug 22, 2001
10,184
797
Bend, Oregon
From Chris Horner's diary

Back with the big boys - The Chris Horner diary
From being the USA's top domestic rider for several years to riding for a ProTour team in the Tour de France, Chris Horner is always on the up.

A talented all-rounder, Chris had a bad start to 2005 after breaking his leg in Tirreno-Adriatico, but has since then found form again, with an excellent stage win in one of the toughest stages of the Tour de Suisse. That sealed the deal for him to gain a spot on the Saunier Duval-Prodir team for the Tour de France, and Horner is determined to make the most of it.

Always ambitious and unafraid to speak his mind, Horner wants to finish top 10 on GC in this year's Tour, and failing that, at least have a decent crack at a stage win. He'll detail his progress in this special diary for Cyclingnews during the Tour.


Index to all entries

July 17, 2005: Was that a strategy?!
Hey Cyclingnews readers,

I'm checking in from the start of the big mother stage of the Tour in Lézat-sur-Lèze. Yesterday [Stage 14] was hot; with the heat and climbs, it was a hard day.

For me, it was trying to use the day as a big of recovery for the work I did the day before. You're not going to do what I did the day before and ride with the top guys on the climbs, so I just tried to go as easy as I could on the stage and try to recover for today or the next stage. I was joking with Axel Merckx, saying I was using it as a recovery day - and he went, 'Yeah, right!'

I mean, there's only so much recovery you can do on a 220 kilometre stage - it wouldn't even matter if it was flat. 140 miles... you're not going to recover much on 140 miles, but you can feel better than the other guys. So you're not trying to be 100 percent again, you're just trying to be better than the rest.

Now a few words on T-Mobile's strategy yesterday. Was that a strategy? I mean, what are they doing? Okay, I could see the tactic of driving it into the climb; evidently, it worked and Armstrong was without team-mates, so you could see that tactic work. But when Vinokourov's attacking, why are you pulling your own team-mate back?

And it's not just T-Mobile; look at the rest of the guys... 101 Tactics: you never, never, never pull the race leader around; the fact of the matter is that they pulled the best climber in the world on the mountains and let him destroy them at the finish.

Anyway, enough said. It's much cooler here at the start, but that can all change. I don't mind the heat; it's a bit hard in a stage like yesterday being so long, but when it's 200k or less, it's not so bad. Today, I'm thinking another early breakaway will go. Someone's going to try, no-one's got a reason to chase - everybody [else] is 30 minutes down or an hour or two hours. And I think they would let something go and it could go all the way, but for me, I don't know.

I'll just see how the legs feel. I mean, I'll definitely try to get in a couple of moves - it would be an ideal day for me, I think - I'm so far down on time and most likely, so will everyone in the break be, too. I don't know how much effort I'll put into it, but I'll definitely cover some moves and see what happens.

Wish me luck!

Cheers,
Chris