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The Economy (2019?)

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,520
7,069
Colorado
Very easy way to explain what I've been talking about for a while regarding stock buybacks.

 
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stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,520
7,069
Colorado
"bUt tHE sToCk MarKEt iS at An AlL tIMe hIgH!"
I try to explain economy /= market every day. I don't always succeed with the Brian crowd. They will learn... It's a reason why I max out my tax advantage savings, but am paying down my cars, house full pace with bonuses and extra cash flow. I want to minimize my overhead mandatory demand asap.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,145
16,539
Riding the baggage carousel.
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,379
12,533
In a van.... down by the river
For the math-challenged - that means we paid for ALL of the tariffs. Which is generally how tariffs work. :disgust:
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
For the math-challenged - that means we paid for ALL of the tariffs. Which is generally how tariffs work. :disgust:
We’re going to pay for all the taxes/penalties levied against the big, bad corporations if Warren or Sanders get elected too. The consumer always shoulders the burden of higher cost of business.

IMO, it’s too early to evaluate the true costs or benefits of the tariffs. They very well may eventually result in tangible benefits for our economy. Short term pain is a given in any trade war and it may take years to see any upside, if it materializes.

Or it could be worse than we ever imagined.:panic:
 
We’re going to pay for all the taxes/penalties levied against the big, bad corporations if Warren or Sanders get elected too. The consumer always shoulders the burden of higher cost of business...
The large corporations, including financial institutions, need to be broken up over a period of perhaps twenty years in order to allow systems to adjust to the change. Over the same period, insurance, essentially a tax imposed on us all by corporations, should be eliminated.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
The large corporations, including financial institutions, need to be broken up over a period of perhaps twenty years in order to allow systems to adjust to the change. Over the same period, insurance, essentially a tax imposed on us all by corporations, should be eliminated.
How is health insurance a tax imposed by corporations? IMO, unburdening businesses completely from healthcare is easiest way to even the playing field for them versus international competition, who doesn’t carry that cost.

Before health care was deemed a ‘human right’ (and I’m not arguing against that concept) health care benefits from business existed as competitive advantage to attract workers. Just like pensions/401k etc. It sweetened the compensation package so how did that become a tax?

I see zero reason why an employer should be responsible for the healthcare of an at-will employee.

Regardless, back to what you quoted of my post, the fact remains: Any influence on the cost of business will always be passed to end consumer.

That’s how business works. It’s not evil but rather a necessity in order to keep the lights on.
 
How is health insurance a tax imposed by corporations? IMO, unburdening businesses completely from healthcare is easiest way to even the playing field for them versus international competition, who doesn’t carry that cost.
...
That’s how business works. It’s not evil but rather a necessity in order to keep the lights on.
Insurance companies are corporations. Like all corporations at this point they are not focused on providing other than minimal value to customers; their main focus is to maximize profit.

Same applies today to corporations in general. Profit maximization is not "a necessity in order to keep the lights on". It's part of the evil inherent in the current system.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
Insurance companies are corporations. Like all corporations at this point they are not focused on providing other than minimal value to customers; their main focus is to maximize profit.

Same applies today to corporations in general. Profit maximization is not "a necessity in order to keep the lights on". It's part of the evil inherent in the current system.
growth for the sake of growth.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
Insurance companies are corporations. Like all corporations at this point they are not focused on providing other than minimal value to customers; their main focus is to maximize profit.

Same applies today to corporations in general. Profit maximization is not "a necessity in order to keep the lights on". It's part of the evil inherent in the current system.
I disagree re profit.
As long as you aren't crushing souls in its pursuit, there is nothing inherently wrong with it.
I treat my clients great, pay my employees above market rate and do everything possible to maximize profit.

Human nature being what it is, of course there are endless examples of profit chasing gone wrong as Liz and Bernie remind us hourly.
That doesn't mean it's always the case or even the standard and certainly doesn't mean profit=bad.
Both of them have profited well over the years (not a negative in my eyes), unless you're suggesting their wealth was ill-begotten?

Restructuring the health industry and punishing 'corporations' in general are really two separate issues.
I completely agree the health care industry is FUBAR at the moment.
I also think the government running it will continue that tradition but it will at least be an attempt to improve things so I support giving it a go.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
As long as you aren't crushing souls in its pursuit, there is nothing inherently wrong with it.
I treat my clients great, pay my employees above market rate and do everything possible to maximize profit.
yes but when we're talking about for-profit health insurance, "soul crushing" is a metaphor that's surprisingly on point
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,379
12,533
In a van.... down by the river
<snip>
I completely agree the health care industry is FUBAR at the moment.
I also think the government running it will continue that tradition but it will at least be an attempt to improve things so I support giving it a go.
Yep - it's kind of unfortunate that we had to get to this point (things being completely FUBAR) before recognizing that something needed to be done.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,828
13,063
Having grown up in one of those commie countries that has government provided healthcare, it's not perfect. But at the same time you're not going to lose your house if you have to walk into the emergency room and you don't need half a mill saved for retirement just towards being able to afford healthcare as you age out into fertilizer.
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,379
12,533
In a van.... down by the river
Having grown up in one of those commie countries that has government provided healthcare, it's not perfect. But at the same time you're not going to lose your house if you have to walk into the emergency room and you don't need half a mill saved for retirement just towards being able to afford healthcare as you age out into fertilizer.
To be completely honest, if I didn't have to worry about covering my health insurance from today until age 65, I'd be retired NOW. Even with kids in college. :mad:
 

Jozz

Joe Dalton
Apr 18, 2002
5,753
7,215
SADL
Having grown up in one of those commie countries that has government provided healthcare, it's not perfect. But at the same time you're not going to lose your house if you have to walk into the emergency room and you don't need half a mill saved for retirement just towards being able to afford healthcare as you age out into fertilizer.
Can't always suck to be living in Canaderp.
 

jstuhlman

bagpipe wanker
Dec 3, 2009
16,627
12,918
Cackalacka du Nord
growth for the sake of growth.
capitalism, u so crazy!

re: health insurance...fuck saving for that shit to stretch it all out. i have no qualms about lights-outing myself as soon as quality of life is gone. hopefully that can become a less stigmatized option in the future. the whole boomer generation spending billions trying milk out that stupidly-expensive extra few months of life in a hospital bed is fucking terrible.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
capitalism, u so crazy!

re: health insurance...fuck saving for that shit to stretch it all out. i have no qualms about lights-outing myself as soon as quality of life is gone. hopefully that can become a less stigmatized option in the future. the whole boomer generation spending billions trying milk out that stupidly-expensive extra few months of life in a hospital bed is fucking terrible.
My family jokes about an eskimo funeral for me.
Just push me out into the atlantic on a hunk of ice with a bottle of bourbon and a handgun.
Works for me, other than fact I suspect timing will be related more to my insurance policy than general health.
 

Jozz

Joe Dalton
Apr 18, 2002
5,753
7,215
SADL
capitalism, u so crazy!

re: health insurance...fuck saving for that shit to stretch it all out. i have no qualms about lights-outing myself as soon as quality of life is gone. hopefully that can become a less stigmatized option in the future. the whole boomer generation spending billions trying milk out that stupidly-expensive extra few months of life in a hospital bed is fucking terrible.
But what if you suffer a stroke and aren't physically able to off yourself...?
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,520
7,069
Colorado
To be completely honest, if I didn't have to worry about covering my health insurance from today until age 65, I'd be retired NOW. Even with kids in college. :mad:
I ran the numbers that retiring at 60, which is later than wanted, will require and additional $150k+ in today's dollars for us to make it to Medicare at 65, given my need for expensive drugs. That's a painfully large amount when our walkaway could be realistic by then. We'd likely have to leave the country to be able to afford our healthcare costs to retire that early.
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,119
378
Bay Area, California
Earnings Are Set to Drop Again. Investors Seem Fine With That https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-11/earnings-anguish-at-saturation-point-amid-signs-of-a-bottoming

Nothing to see here. Don't worry, move along.
WOW! That's a weird coincidence. The article was on Bloomberg and there is a Michael Bloomberg running for president. Any relation here? :think: The market is always and will always hit peaks & valleys, just as the real estate market. Can't always have the steady climb, though it would be really nice if it worked that way. However it doesn't.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,520
7,069
Colorado
WOW! That's a weird coincidence. The article was on Bloomberg and there is a Michael Bloomberg running for president. Any relation here? :think: The market is always and will always hit peaks & valleys, just as the real estate market. Can't always have the steady climb, though it would be really nice if it worked that way. However it doesn't.
I'm at a complete fucking loss here. That's pulled off raw financial data. In any rational financial market, two quarters of dropping earnings would be reason for concern and you would expect to see slowdown.

You might be older than me and have gone through one more market cycle with the tech bubble than me, but I eat, breathe, and sleep this shit. Not even at the financial advisor down the street way, coming from working at Bloomberg where my clients were investment banks and hedge funds to then going to the investment bank.

This is NOT FUCKING NORMAL when this goes, and it will, it won't be like 2008. In the financial markets in 2008, the banks themselves took the hits and in large part got extensive loans from the Fed to support them while the credit swaps and mtge bonds settled. There will be none of that - the people holding stock positions are in majority, retail investors. Boomers being the largest portion of those by a very large amount.

We are going farther and farther over a precipice with no justification the growth. A huge portion of the earnings in 2017/18 we're based solely on stock buybacks. If you don't know what those are, I put an educational video up above a few weeks ago. Last year we saw heavy cuts to company expenses and automation with layoffs in manufacturing driving earnings by lowering costs to adjust for lower revenues.

This stock market growth is not built on a sustainable base. When there is nothing left to cut, no more shares to buyback (they've slowed down substantially), and the revenues reduce to the point they can't be hidden in cost cutting, it will be a damn spotlight that the king has no clothes on - where the king is the market.

While there is incredibly lower unemployment, wage growth is sitting below inflation last time I checked. That means people's money is worth less than how much prices are going up. There is a threshold point when people stop buying discretionary goods because they are struggling to buy staples. The tariffs have been taken on 100% by the US populace, meaning that we (as a whole) have less money to spend, pushing that point closer, faster.

I might not like Trump, but this is basic fucking economics; the stock market is not the economy. A better indicator is the bond market and it's been cooling down a lot over the last 6 months. Your rose colored glasses loving Trump are blinding you from raw economic data that is throwing red flags and blowing whistles like a 4y/o with one.