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The Economy (2020/21)

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,023
7,928
Colorado
But you LIKE the casino...

Also, how am I supposed to get to 10M on $15 bucks an hour? I mean sure I could manage that mcdonalds some day but that's a long road and I just read something about uncertainty and biden banning beef.
GFF likes the casino. I invest on 20+yr timelines, even for myself. I had a little bit of fun with GME and a quick option trade, but those are the first trades (vs. investments - they are different) that I've done in over a year.

And you'll get a whole lot closer to having $50k at retirement on $15/hr than $7.50/he and being $50k in debt.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,382
27,606
media blackout
GFF likes the casino. I invest on 20+yr timelines, even for myself. I had a little bit of fun with GME and a quick option trade, but those are the first trades (vs. investments - they are different) that I've done in over a year.

And you'll get a whole lot closer to having $50k at retirement on $15/hr than $7.50/he and being $50k in debt.
i just have a CFP. its worth the few hundred a year I pay.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
40,205
9,097
there are some municipal government retirement plans that are known as Social Security replacement plans - 401(a)
FWIW I have a 401(a) but I'm also in SS, not the COPERA alt universe. So not necessarily mutually exclusive.

401(a) is 5% me 10% them up to the IRS annual compensation limit, so not a pension but a nice perk for sure.

the pension plan is a few billion dollars underfunded
You shall become intimately familiar with the Pension Benefit and Guaranty Corporation in a few years, I'm guessing. One of my uncles was an actuary for them iirc.

i'm already fully vested, but the longer my service (years) goes, the more i'll get out of it.
How many years does it take to cap out in benefits? For old-time employees of my county hospital in NY (no such benefits for hires in the last 20 years or so) they'd vest at 15 years at 2% per year worked and cap at 30 years. So you'd have people retiring after 30 years, residency time included for docs if at the same joint, at 60%. :notbadobama:
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,023
7,928
Colorado
Considering this was voluntary and 100% out of pocket, it wasn't a great return but considered a nice conservative but guaranteed source of retirement income. But GE decided to play a bunch of financial shell games that once discovered showed that the funds $5,000,000,000 surplus was actually a $22,000,000,000 deficit. That is equivalent to the GDP of Iceland
I can't stand what GE became. MIL had a lot of GE from her dad (Wifey's gpa) because he worked there for 35 yrs. When shit started going sideways I begged her to let me sell it and it still dropped almost $10/sh before she let me because "they were her dad's shares". Cost her a lot of money and GE has still never come back to even what I sold it at. Every other family member saw the writing on the wall and sold it. Pissed me off to no avail that she's relying on me to handle these things and was disregarding what I was telling her to do until she lost nearly $10/sh.

I get this same shit from people of the 60+ range running full throttle to get every dollar out of the market until they retire. The nice thing about working remote is that we do everything on recorded WebEx now, so when I'm recommending/begging them to risk down, we have it on record for when things blow up and they try to come back at us. When we were still going out on site we obviously weren't and were relying on how good of notes we took after meetings. that being said, I've had to start building 15min in after every meeting to take post-meeting notes. Every red flag that we saw in 2007 for how people are looking at the mkt is going up, so getting logs of what was discussed is even more important than ever.

FWIW I have a 401(a) but I'm also in SS, not the COPERA alt universe. So not necessarily mutually exclusive.

401(a) is 5% me 10% them up to the IRS annual compensation limit, so not a pension but a nice perk for sure.
There are multiple types of 401(a) plans. The majority of 401(a) are used as SS replacement plans however some are used as pension replacement plans - yours falls into this category. the annual cap for a 401(a) is (iirc) $58k/yr, which is why it's used in conjunction with 403(b) and 457 plans, especially for higher income earners. It allows for $19500/yr in each of the other plans employee, then employer on top.

Side note - it's almost NEVER in your favor to take money out of your 457 after separating from employment or putting it in as Roth. There are too many benefits to early retirement access by keeping it there and being accessible as non-Roth money. I rarely, rarely ever help or recommend people rollover old 457 plans into and current employer plans, unless they are really small. They lose too many benefits in doing it.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,493
10,965
AK
I can't stand what GE became. MIL had a lot of GE from her dad (Wifey's gpa) because he worked there for 35 yrs. When shit started going sideways I begged her to let me sell it and it still dropped almost $10/sh before she let me because "they were her dad's shares". Cost her a lot of money and GE has still never come back to even what I sold it at. Every other family member saw the writing on the wall and sold it. Pissed me off to no avail that she's relying on me to handle these things and was disregarding what I was telling her to do until she lost nearly $10/sh.

I get this same shit from people of the 60+ range running full throttle to get every dollar out of the market until they retire. The nice thing about working remote is that we do everything on recorded WebEx now, so when I'm recommending/begging them to risk down, we have it on record for when things blow up and they try to come back at us. When we were still going out on site we obviously weren't and were relying on how good of notes we took after meetings. that being said, I've had to start building 15min in after every meeting to take post-meeting notes. Every red flag that we saw in 2007 for how people are looking at the mkt is going up, so getting logs of what was discussed is even more important than ever.


There are multiple types of 401(a) plans. The majority of 401(a) are used as SS replacement plans however some are used as pension replacement plans - yours falls into this category. the annual cap for a 401(a) is (iirc) $58k/yr, which is why it's used in conjunction with 403(b) and 457 plans, especially for higher income earners. It allows for $19500/yr in each of the other plans employee, then employer on top.

Side note - it's almost NEVER in your favor to take money out of your 457 after separating from employment or putting it in as Roth. There are too many benefits to early retirement access by keeping it there and being accessible as non-Roth money. I rarely, rarely ever help or recommend people rollover old 457 plans into and current employer plans, unless they are really small. They lose too many benefits in doing it.
It's great that the system is set up so we'll have money when our bodies are all broken down and we are unable to enjoy it.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,382
27,606
media blackout
How many years does it take to cap out in benefits? For old-time employees of my county hospital in NY (no such benefits for hires in the last 20 years or so) they'd vest at 15 years at 2% per year worked and cap at 30 years. So you'd have people retiring after 30 years, residency time included for docs if at the same joint, at 60%. :notbadobama:
benefits are a % based on years of credited service. i'm poking around the policy and there doesn't seem to be a cap.
 

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,957
10,145
Crawlorado
I paid into a voluntary pension plan when I was at GE. Should give me $10K/year when I retire. Of course the pension plan is a few billion dollars underfunded so I see it being as reliable as social security.

GE offered to buy out my pension for a few thousand in cash a few years ago. It of course was a giant financial disadvantage to me other than mitigating the risk of the whole pension plan disappearing. I declined the offer.
Ditto. I've got a cool $400/mo coming to me in retirement courtesy of the meatball. They tried to throw $15K to buy me out but I was all, nah. I'm counting on that as my Depends fund for later in life.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,023
7,928
Colorado
It's great that the system is set up so we'll have money when our bodies are all broken down and we are unable to enjoy it.
Yep. /s

We save near 25% of income and I drive to do more so that I can be done early. I don't want to work past 55. I can still enjoy shit at 55. If I can stop earlier, I will. Every raise we get goes 100% to savings; we don't increase lifestyle based on income increases. Kids make things really hard though. Haley alone and we would have unquestionably been done at 55, if not sooner. Hannah makes it harder because she leaves for college at 55, so we need to be fully financially situated by then.
I don't know how Millenials and down will ever be able to retire, especially because a large percentage are effectively forced to put having kids off until late-30's or not at all (see decreasing birthrate in US).
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,023
7,928
Colorado
I've got something very similar to this from Boeing. And to be honest, with no kids in college any more, and no mortgage, that's going to be a decent amount of $$ for us.
Might want to check on that BA pension a little deeper there. Dad worked for BA for 30+ years are their pension is pretty muddy, depending on which sub-firm you started with.
 

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,957
10,145
Crawlorado
Yep. /s

We save near 25% of income and I drive to do more so that I can be done early. I don't want to work past 55. I can still enjoy shit at 55. If I can stop earlier, I will. Every raise we get goes 100% to savings; we don't increase lifestyle based on income increases. Kids make things really hard though. Haley alone and we would have unquestionably been done at 55, if not sooner. Hannah makes it harder because she leaves for college at 55, so we need to be fully financially situated by then.
I don't know how Millenials and down will ever be able to retire, especially because a large percentage are effectively forced to put having kids off until late-30's or not at all (see decreasing birthrate in US).
:wave:

As a middle of the generation Millenial, it feels pretty damn tough to put away enough to feel comfortable for retirement, and I imagine that I have more saved than a good percentage of my peers.

There are just too many converging factors that outpace any gains in household income. Housing, healthcare, education, inevitable SS cuts, it goes on and on. Throw in a kid, maybe two if you are a real high roller, and it's a good bet you'll be working til 70.

And people wonder why the younger generations favor socialist ideas and want expanded government. The value proposition that prior generations enjoyed of has flipped.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,382
27,606
media blackout
35 in a few months.
i'm 37. get a CFP if you don't already have one. i don't have the time to learn enough to manage my money on my own. i spend like $600 a year on one, and the amount more i earn on my retirements account in a given year has paid for it for *decades*. on just my current company 401k itself, i had gains that were worth about 25% of my base salary.
 

junkyard

You might feel a little prick.
Sep 1, 2015
2,619
2,350
San Diego
Life really hasn't changed much for thousands of years. Its been kings and serfs for quite a while. Now though even poor people have heating and ac, tv, refrigerators, access to food variety, vaccines, access to knowledge, travel without walking, all things nobody had 120 years ago.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,023
7,928
Colorado
I've got something very similar to this from Boeing. And to be honest, with no kids in college any more, and no mortgage, that's going to be a decent amount of $$ for us.
Might want to check on that BA pension a little deeper there. Dad worked for BA for 30+ years are their pension is pretty muddy, depending on which sub-firm you started with.
i'm 37. get a CFP if you don't already have one. i don't have the time to learn enough to manage my money on my own. i spend like $600 a year on one, and the amount more i earn on my retirements account in a given year has paid for it for *decades*. on just my current company 401k itself, i had gains that were worth about 25% of my base salary.
I'm hesitant to throw everyone at a CFP. Part of my job is finding people within the employer plans who need that next level and getting them that extra help. I'd guess that I probably have 20+ dedicated advisory meetings per week. In 5 months I've referred 5 people to our CFP team.

Based on our prior conversations, you were and are, in a slightly different spot than Timmay! because of your very specific extenuating circumstances. I don't fully believe that everyone needs a CFP or necessarily even going off age-based investment options for their long-term plans if they fall into the category of "average". If they fall out of that category, their are services out there that provide near CFP level advice (or at least to the scale I do) through free automated services. You know that you're giving up information and effectively putting yourself onto a sales roll, but there are good tools.
@Adventurous feel free to call me if you want and I can direct you towards good options out there, if you want
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
40,205
9,097
the annual cap for a 401(a) is (iirc) $58k/yr
Tied instead to IRS annual compensation limit:


5% me, 10% them up to that limit and then the 401(a) goes dormant for the remainder of the year. Perhaps your limit applies on top of the annual limit for plans with a more generous-yet match.

i'm 37. get a CFP if you don't already have one. i don't have the time to learn enough to manage my money on my own. i spend like $600 a year on one, and the amount more i earn on my retirements account in a given year has paid for it for *decades*. on just my current company 401k itself, i had gains that were worth about 25% of my base salary.
How do your fancy returns compare to, say, just 90% VTI, 10% in a low risk bond mutual fund? Because that's the true comparison.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,382
27,606
media blackout
Might want to check on that BA pension a little deeper there. Dad worked for BA for 30+ years are their pension is pretty muddy, depending on which sub-firm you started with.

I'm hesitant to throw everyone at a CFP. Part of my job is finding people within the employer plans who need that next level and getting them that extra help. I'd guess that I probably have 20+ dedicated advisory meetings per week. In 5 months I've referred 5 people to our CFP team.

Based on our prior conversations, you were and are, in a slightly different spot than Timmay! because of your very specific extenuating circumstances. I don't fully believe that everyone needs a CFP or necessarily even going off age-based investment options for their long-term plans if they fall into the category of "average". If they fall out of that category, their are services out there that provide near CFP level advice (or at least to the scale I do) through free automated services. You know that you're giving up information and effectively putting yourself onto a sales roll, but there are good tools.
@Adventurous feel free to call me if you want and I can direct you towards good options out there, if you want
I guess my advice was less specific to getting a cfp than just hire someone trustworthy to manage if you can't commit the time.
 

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,957
10,145
Crawlorado
I hired someone to manage my 401k once. They came highly recommended and had demonstrated results.

They proceeded to turn my 78K into 55K before I pulled the plug. Granted the market was pretty flat over the same period, but I sure as shit aren't going to pay you to lose my money. I was young and learned a valuable lesson.

Since then, I've got it parked in Wealthfront and have let the robots invest for me. Low management cost and its back up to 89K in 4 years. The rest stays in Fidelity and is spread across various low-fee options. Big cap, small cap, international, targeted date funds, I've got it all. Also contribute whatever doesn't go into the house fund into a Roth IRA (also through Wealthfront) to try and catch up.

I honestly don't know if a CFP could do anything for me. Hell, I don't even know if I have enough assets to make it worth their time. I've never seen any good criteria for when one should seek out assistance or not, but after that first experience, I am understandably apprehensive about doing so.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,382
27,606
media blackout
I hired someone to manage my 401k once. They came highly recommended and had demonstrated results.

They proceeded to turn my 78K into 55K before I pulled the plug. Granted the market was pretty flat over the same period, but I sure as shit aren't going to pay you to lose my money. I was young and learned a valuable lesson.

Since then, I've got it parked in Wealthfront and have let the robots invest for me. Low management cost and its back up to 89K in 4 years. The rest stays in Fidelity and is spread across various low-fee options. Big cap, small cap, international, targeted date funds, I've got it all. Also contribute whatever doesn't go into the house fund into a Roth IRA (also through Wealthfront) to try and catch up.

I honestly don't know if a CFP could do anything for me. Hell, I don't even know if I have enough assets to make it worth their time. I've never seen any good criteria for when one should seek out assistance or not, but after that first experience, I am understandably apprehensive about doing so.
Fair point, I can see why you'd be hesitant. As stone man mentioned, my financial situation isn't as straightforward as most people so I stand to benefit, and have. Full disclosure I use Ameriprise and have had very good results and a good overall experience, and it has helped me/my family navigate a rough spot I don't think I could have handled on my own (financially speaking). If you want more specifics shoot me a pm. I will also say that stonerino has never given me bad advice.
 

CrabJoe StretchPants

Reincarnated Crab Walking Head Spinning Bruce Dick
Nov 30, 2003
14,163
2,485
Groton, MA
Fidelity robots have been managing my 401k since I opened it about 10yrs ago, and seems to be....good? I'm on an auto-increase plan that increases my contribution 1% of my salary every year. Employer matches up to 6%, and the past 3-4 years they have been putting in another 3% lump deposit into it the same time annual bonuses are sent out.

I kinda care, but I also expect to die before making it to retirement anyway.
 

Changleen

Paranoid Member
Jan 9, 2004
14,895
2,860
Pōneke
Maintenance de routine.
This is the future republican policy will create if it doesn’t collapse everything first. Some Judge Dredd bullshit. I was going to say ‘except the flying cars’, but probably corporations will destroy noise regulations in court so those are actually all 120dB (exterior) quadrocopters ferrying the 1% about:

34E17725-56FF-4923-BBCF-63D7DC2FE68D.jpeg