The Economy (2020/21)
- Thread starter rideit
- Start date
x-post with Housing Doom and Gloom
Job openings top 11.2 million in July, well above estimate and nearly double the available workers
Available positions totaled 11.24 million for the month, well in excess of the 10.3 million FactSet estimate, according to the JOLTS report.
www.cnbc.com
United States Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate in the United States decreased to 4.20 percent in August from 4.30 percent in July of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...
tradingeconomics.com
In today's edition of "nobody wants to work".
Fed rate up .75%. Up to 3-3.25% range.
Some info on how drastic the changes we're seeing in Treasuries right now.
Top line is now, just after Fed - 1yr at ~4.125%. Bottom is 6mos ago - 1yr ~3.2%. 80bps higher on the 1yr in 6mos. That's wild. Especially when you recall the 10yr was .5 in 2020.
Yield curve is inverted at ~1yr/10yr. Means you can get better RoR on very short term vs. 10yr+.
@eric strt6
Some info on how drastic the changes we're seeing in Treasuries right now.
Top line is now, just after Fed - 1yr at ~4.125%. Bottom is 6mos ago - 1yr ~3.2%. 80bps higher on the 1yr in 6mos. That's wild. Especially when you recall the 10yr was .5 in 2020.
Yield curve is inverted at ~1yr/10yr. Means you can get better RoR on very short term vs. 10yr+.
@eric strt6
How much could I make on a one week investment of 100k?
What is the shortest duration available?
How much for just one rib??
All right, fuck the cup. Pour it in my hand for a dime.
1m T-bill. Right at 2.5% annualized. At that point though, a high yield savings acct makes more sense. You can get 2% with less effort and better access w/in the 1m.
Sales are up. Hiring is up. Unemployment is still record low. Weird numbers for a recession.
Fed did say their terminal rate that was 4.6%, which is seemingly bonkers. But if that's what it takes to get Trump's inflation under control, that's what it takes.
Don't worry Liz has your back.... if she can't drag the markets down no one can!
Yesterday was fun... Got to explain to an older gentleman rambling on about "nobody wants to work" how the Fed actually did a study that found there are roughly the same number of people 18-55y/o working as pre-pandemic. It's the 55+ where there has been an exponential falloff and the population in that age group that works part-time is also incredibly low vs. historical numbers. So the real issue is that Boomers have stopped working, which is causing the labor shortages and corresponding inflation issues. I saw him glitch. He didn't know how to respond to it.
www.businessinsider.com
Wonder why everything is so expensive these days? It's because boomers got greedy.
Boomers' greed is to blame for high prices and crippling shortages — and now millennials and Gen Z are forced to deal with the mess they left behind.
www.businessinsider.com
the federal gov't owns almost half the state
Wyoming is the #6 state with the most land owned by the federal government
Stacker investigated how much land is owned by the federal government in Wyoming using data from the Congressional Research Service.
Yesterday was fun... Got to explain to an older gentleman rambling on about "nobody wants to work" how the Fed actually did a study that found there are roughly the same number of people 18-55y/o working as pre-pandemic. It's the 55+ where there has been an exponential falloff and the population in that age group that works part-time is also incredibly low vs. historical numbers. So the real issue is that Boomers have stopped working, which is causing the labor shortages and corresponding inflation issues. I saw him glitch. He didn't know how to respond to it.
Wonder why everything is so expensive these days? It's because boomers got greedy.
Boomers' greed is to blame for high prices and crippling shortages — and now millennials and Gen Z are forced to deal with the mess they left behind.
I always like how not "wanting" to work is an insult. Most people don't want to work. Our entire lives are geared towards the accomplishment of reaching the point where you don't.
Anyway, yeah fuck that whole generation. All (white ones) benefitted from some of the most aggressive and progressive gov't housing, education, and business subsidization in history, and then act all belligerent like it was bootstraps
i saw that too. what a bunch of fucks.Yesterday was fun... Got to explain to an older gentleman rambling on about "nobody wants to work" how the Fed actually did a study that found there are roughly the same number of people 18-55y/o working as pre-pandemic. It's the 55+ where there has been an exponential falloff and the population in that age group that works part-time is also incredibly low vs. historical numbers. So the real issue is that Boomers have stopped working, which is causing the labor shortages and corresponding inflation issues. I saw him glitch. He didn't know how to respond to it.
Wonder why everything is so expensive these days? It's because boomers got greedy.
Boomers' greed is to blame for high prices and crippling shortages — and now millennials and Gen Z are forced to deal with the mess they left behind.
Also you should shoot him this one:Yesterday was fun... Got to explain to an older gentleman rambling on about "nobody wants to work" how the Fed actually did a study that found there are roughly the same number of people 18-55y/o working as pre-pandemic. It's the 55+ where there has been an exponential falloff and the population in that age group that works part-time is also incredibly low vs. historical numbers. So the real issue is that Boomers have stopped working, which is causing the labor shortages and corresponding inflation issues. I saw him glitch. He didn't know how to respond to it.
Wonder why everything is so expensive these days? It's because boomers got greedy.
Boomers' greed is to blame for high prices and crippling shortages — and now millennials and Gen Z are forced to deal with the mess they left behind.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Or, you know... if he doesn't like to read:
My MIL and one of our family friends... and when we bring up their obvious privilege and how it *wasn't* bootstraps, they get indignant.
And oddly, for whatever reason (I suspect Fox news?), they are all hung up on the transgender "issue." Like that matters FUCK ALL to their lives.
My cousin is post-surgery transgender. Parents are super Fox loving conservatives. They don't see the disconnect.My MIL and one of our family friends... and when we bring up their obvious privilege and how it *wasn't* bootstraps, they get indignant.
And oddly, for whatever reason (I suspect Fox news?), they are all hung up on the transgender "issue." Like that matters FUCK ALL to their lives.
I honestly think people get pulled so far into those rabbit holes that whomever is the hated demographic du jour is just some mystery population 'out there' somewhere doing horrible things, usually to children.
Zero connection to actual people, much less anyone they would encounter.
My wife likes to bring up the fact that, as *women* they should have a little more empathy for whatever "those people" are facing. Discrimination, voter-suppression, etc.
There is a certain demographic that would like to see women NOT participating, in any of it, other than popping out kids and making me sammiches.
Ironically one of the biggest drivers of the trans hate/grooming shit (libsoftiktok) is absolutely a woman.
a weird ass ultra religious cult woman
so uh yea, SVB (silicon valley bank) has failed. largest bank failure since the 2008 recession. FDIC currently in charge of it.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
"oh its not you, it's the other ones"
Wifey's cousin is very senior there (but not on the FDIC side). Her vacation just went *boom*.
Also just got into an argument with MIL1 that trading was stopped on all local Bay Area banks to stop a short attack on them. SVB bounced up at periods today - which was likely shorts covering. The short attack would potentially lead to a run on the bank, hence the trading stop. But they didn't stop bank access. She insisted that they stopped bank access, because people only watch the news and ignorance leads to panic...
Last edited:
Sucks to be her
Ouch.
US banks sitting on unrealized losses of $620 billion
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse last week sent tingles of panic down investors' spines as it highlighted a larger problem across the banking sector: The widening gap between the value large lenders place on the bonds they hold and what they're actually worth on the market.
www.cnn.com
Ouch.
US banks sitting on unrealized losses of $620 billion
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse last week sent tingles of panic down investors' spines as it highlighted a larger problem across the banking sector: The widening gap between the value large lenders place on the bonds they hold and what they're actually worth on the market.
SVB doled out bonuses ahead of FDIC seizure
The FDIC emailed SVB employees late last night, offering 45 days of employment.
www.axios.com
we had some old friends who had a theory that 80% of people put there are assholes, 10% are tolerable, and 10% you'll like. have always been pretty on board with those numbers...they were from canada, so they might have even been being polite in their estimates.Americans who are morans:
True proportion: 85%
Estimated proportion: 12%
this thread also makes me glad i like my job. i actually don't mind working half of the time.
print moar money....
its like arguing on the internet...Wifey's cousin is very senior there (but not on the FDIC side). Her vacation just went *boom*.
Also just got into an argument with MIL1 that trading was stopped on all local Bay Area banks to stop a short attack on them. SVB bounced up at periods today - which was likely shorts covering. The short attack would potentially lead to a run on the bank, hence the trading stop. But they didn't stop bank access. She insisted that they stopped bank access, because people only watch the news and ignorance leads to panic...