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The Economy (2020)

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
9,598
3,159
In the cleavage of the Tetons
Read this on another forum, pretty good summary.


“The only problem with dumpster diving right now (stocks) is that we're in an early phase of simultaneous global currency, sovereign debt, corporate debt, supply chain, labor market, political and public health crises. The Gyna virus thingy is getting nearly all the attention, but the mismanagement of all the aforementioned critical systems to the point where exogenous shocks trigger auto-catalytic doom loops will not go away when the public health situation improves. The boats in all these systems were loaded and are not tipping - they have tipped and are sinking. Systemic volatility, actively suppressed since the Greenspan 80s, is now in a positive-reinforcing situation where each shock provokes further shocks in related systems. It's a social-economic-financial-political failure, far beyond a 'mild recession' or anything resembling normal economic cycles.

The lesson for me now is to gtfo the way of this freight train. Cash, AAA bonds, gold, BTC - only things with the best counter-parties or that you can secure physical possession of. Maybe equity in beaten up but healthy growth-oriented equities, but value shopping early in the unwind seems premature.”
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
38,589
5,314
Sleazattle
Read this on another forum, pretty good summary.


“The only problem with dumpster diving right now (stocks) is that we're in an early phase of simultaneous global currency, sovereign debt, corporate debt, supply chain, labor market, political and public health crises. The Gyna virus thingy is getting nearly all the attention, but the mismanagement of all the aforementioned critical systems to the point where exogenous shocks trigger auto-catalytic doom loops will not go away when the public health situation improves. The boats in all these systems were loaded and are not tipping - they have tipped and are sinking. Systemic volatility, actively suppressed since the Greenspan 80s, is now in a positive-reinforcing situation where each shock provokes further shocks in related systems. It's a social-economic-financial-political failure, far beyond a 'mild recession' or anything resembling normal economic cycles.

The lesson for me now is to gtfo the way of this freight train. Cash, AAA bonds, gold, BTC - only things with the best counter-parties or that you can secure physical possession of. Maybe equity in beaten up but healthy growth-oriented equities, but value shopping early in the unwind seems premature.”

I had set myself up to invest a goodly sum this week, then last night it just didn't feel right. My strategy is to buy low, when stable, shit ain't stable. I called it off, if this is the bottom and things go back up, great. If not, Imma gonna like dat cash.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
9,598
3,159
In the cleavage of the Tetons
I had set myself up to invest a goodly sum this week, then last night it just didn't feel right. My strategy is to buy low, when stable, shit ain't stable. I called it off, if this is the bottom and things go back up, great. If not, Imma gonna like dat cash.
Exactly. I have been poking around, and it’s just too scary.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
28,945
2,822
I had set myself up to invest a goodly sum this week, then last night it just didn't feel right. My strategy is to buy low, when stable, shit ain't stable. I called it off, if this is the bottom and things go back up, great. If not, Imma gonna like dat cash.
Just by chance due to when I get paid, I'll be investing my chunk on May 1 (unless the trajectory is still clearly down at that point). I think 6 weeks from now will be good in terms of evaluating the second derivative of case and death count.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
38,589
5,314
Sleazattle
Just by chance due to when I get paid, I'll be investing my chunk on May 1 (unless the trajectory is still clearly down at that point). I think 6 weeks from now will be good in terms of evaluating the second derivative of case and death count.
Testing is so inconsistent I wouldn't trust it too much. Deaths have about a 20 day lag from infection.
 

eric strt6

Resident Curmudgeon
Sep 8, 2001
16,003
5,252
directly above the center of the earth
Hello SEC: We have got some insider trading for you to investigate

All 4 Senators need to be investigated and treated the same as Martha Stewart was
Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C .,Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., and James Inhofe, R-Okla.


Oh and it seems to be in direct Violation of the STOCK Act.

and it just so happens that Sen Burr is one of the 3 US Senators to cast a NO vote of the STOCK act....Ironic no?
 

stevew

unique white person
Sep 21, 2001
33,535
4,104
how do you think these fuckers get rich?

would not be surprised if there is a weekly tip sheet sent out to everyone in the house/senate.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,358
2,587
how do you think these fuckers get rich?

would not be surprised if there is a weekly tip sheet sent out to everyone in the house/senate.
yep, it’s amazing how these career politicians all have spouses/kids worth millions.
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
31,675
116
Bay Area, California
Hello SEC: We have got some insider trading for you to investigate

All 4 Senators need to be investigated and treated the same as Martha Stewart was
Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C .,Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., and James Inhofe, R-Okla.


Oh and it seems to be in direct Violation of the STOCK Act.

and it just so happens that Sen Burr is one of the 3 US Senators to cast a NO vote of the STOCK act....Ironic no?
All 4 of them should resign immediately and be prosecuted to the full extent of the law!
 

wiscodh

Monkey
Jun 21, 2007
819
102
303
so, i went for a run.....everyone out working on their house, chilling in the park with there fam, going for a walk, a bike ride, .,.,.,.,all fucking happy, showing gratitude, being nice human beings......were giving everyone 1200, forgiving student loans, ect.......

why is socialism bad again???
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
38,589
5,314
Sleazattle
so, i went for a run.....everyone out working on their house, chilling in the park with there fam, going for a walk, a bike ride, .,.,.,.,all fucking happy, showing gratitude, being nice human beings......were giving everyone 1200, forgiving student loans, ect.......

why is socialism bad again???

Socialism is bad when the stock market is good, socialism is good when the stock market is bad.
 

wiscodh

Monkey
Jun 21, 2007
819
102
303
sorry, i shoulda re worded what i wrote, democratic socialism. ....whats wrong with that now? It seems like a lot of what bernie is saying makes sense now when ya think about it.....
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
9,598
3,159
In the cleavage of the Tetons
And Socialism rears it's ugly little head.



"The Trump administration is considering the launch of a special enrollment period for people to sign up for health coverage under the Affordable Care Act because of the new coronavirus crisis, a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services spokeswoman said Saturday.

At least nine states that run their own exchanges where people can go to buy health coverage have said they would let people obtain coverage under the ACA even though the enrollment season has passed. But most states rely on the federal government to run their exchanges and need approval to initiate a special sign-up period.

A decision to open enrollment could boost the number of people with coverage because 32 states rely solely on the federal exchange.
“CMS is evaluating offering a Special Enrollment Period specifically designated for Covid-19,” the spokeswoman said, referring to the disease caused by the coronavirus. “We will continue to work with states and health plans around the country to assess what additional actions are necessary to ensure the American people have coverage for and access to the services they need during this time.”
...

The interest in a special enrollment period comes as the Trump administration supports litigation aimed at invalidating the Obama-era health law. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case brought by Republican-led states. Monday marks the 10-year anniversary of the signing of the law.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-con...14494?mod=e2tw
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
15,486
1,952
Colorado
Doug Ramsey’s Best Case for Stocks and Other Views of the Future https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/doug-ramsey-s-best-case-for-stocks-and-other-views-of-the-future

Here's the key part:
A Barclays Capital Inc. analysis shows a 30% drawdown in stocks is equal to a 1% drop in U.S. gross domestic product growth and a subsequent decline of 10% in corporate earnings. Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius and Alec Phillips estimated Friday that second-quarter GDP will contract 24% before a second half recovery, delivering a 3.8% reduction in 2020 growth.
 

Sandro

Turbo Monkey
Nov 12, 2006
2,232
1,199
The old world
fairytale socialism is what the people want....
Seems like some people just want to get enraged at any mention of the S-word, but what I gather from listening to the policy wishes associated with it, what quite a few folks want is some good old tried and true social democracy. Like universal healthcare or this type of thing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-good-and-bad-policy-response-by-hans-werner-sinn-2020-03
 

stevew

unique white person
Sep 21, 2001
33,535
4,104
Seems like some people just want to get enraged at any mention of the S-word, but what I gather from listening to the policy wishes associated with it, what quite a few folks want is some good old tried and true social democracy. Like universal healthcare or this type of thing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-good-and-bad-policy-response-by-hans-werner-sinn-2020-03
enraged....hardly.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
28,945
2,822
Given the way the market is headed, and the way aviation is headed these days, talk me out of taking a 401k loan to pay off my mortgage.

@stoney, or any one else wise in the ways of money.
Why would you draw down an asset that's 30% down to pay off a low fixed rate debt? Don't do it.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
15,486
1,952
Colorado
Given the way the market is headed, and the way aviation is headed these days, talk me out of taking a 401k loan to pay off my mortgage.

@stoney, or any one else wise in the ways of money.
Your 401k is your money held in a separate trust. With most plans, if you leave the company, you are required to pay a loan back with 30-60 days, else it becomes a taxable event with a 10% early withdraw penalty from the IRS on top of those funds being added into your taxable income. The time to do it is on an up market, when you quit working at the beginning of the year and are okay taking a 10% haircut; not after having already taken a 30% haircut.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
30,285
5,690
Riding the baggage carousel.
Why would you draw down an asset that's 30% down to pay off a low fixed rate debt? Don't do it.
Your 401k is your money held in a separate trust. With most plans, if you leave the company, you are required to pay a loan back with 30-60 days, else it becomes a taxable event with a 10% early withdraw penalty from the IRS on top of those funds being added into your taxable income. The time to do it is on an up market, when you quit working at the beginning of the year and are okay taking a 10% haircut; not after having already taken a 30% haircut.
Was a boredom thought, just wondering. I have no intention of leaving the airline, but it has occurred to me that the feeling might not be mutual if things get ugly enough. I'm doing a little reading but looking for the ELI5.

 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
15,486
1,952
Colorado
I'm going to say it out loud. Today's bounce was likely shorts closing positions. Looking at how bad the economy got hit in 2008, that was a 56% drop Oct 07-March 09. This is way worse already and it happened way the fuck faster. Even if huge amounts of money get thrown at the population vs. corporations, it ain't gonna do shit. Economic data should have put us into a recession in 2017 (no matter the president); we are only just to that point now...

edit: futures are flat to down right now.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
28,945
2,822
I'm operating on the assumption that I'll have 0 bonus paid out in October. I'm still going to invest the bonus paid out next month knowing that the floor is likely lower yet, but will spread that process out a bit as news percolates in and our trajectory becomes more clear. There are several places where my financial house can tighten its belt if it's leaner yet than foreseen.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
15,486
1,952
Colorado
I'm operating on the assumption that I'll have 0 bonus paid out in October. I'm still going to invest the bonus paid out next month knowing that the floor is likely lower yet, but will spread that process out a bit as news percolates in and our trajectory becomes more clear. There are several places where my financial house can tighten its belt if it's leaner yet than foreseen.
Oh yeah. I'm pretty sure my window to sell the M has passed, unfortunately. That bad boy might actually be getting flipped over to Haggerty for insurance pretty soon in an effort to drop costs on it... But yeah, there's a lot of waste in my life that can be scrubbed still as well.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
30,285
5,690
Riding the baggage carousel.
We are in the process of basically eliminating every discretionary expenditure and throwing all spare cash into emergency fund. All OT has been nixed, road trips have tried up, supposedly an announcement about "cuts" is coming Friday, what ever that means. I expect super lean times ahead for this house hold, even if I manage to remain employed.
 

kidwoo

Celebrating No-Pants Day
Aug 25, 2003
24,052
3,218
In my pants
We are in the process of basically eliminating every discretionary expenditure and throwing all spare cash into emergency fund. All OT has been nixed, road trips have tried up, supposedly an announcement about "cuts" is coming Friday, what ever that means. I expect super lean times ahead for this house hold, even if I manage to remain employed.
You

Me

Artisan guillotines.


I see an emerging market in the coming months. Get some good flashy designs done then focus on travel models.

Reduced shipping to orange county, silicon Valley, aspen, and the hamptons.