[Pesqueeb]

Since Joker can't be here anymore I'll leave this. God, Zero Hedge depresses me. Its pretty long so I'll just quote this part.

No, there will be no double dip. It will be a lot worse. The world economy will soon go into an accelerated and precipitous decline which will make the 2007 to early 2009 downturn seem like a walk in the park. The world financial system has temporarily been on life support by trillions of printed dollars that governments call money. But the effect of this massive money printing is ephemeral since it is not possible to save a world economy built on worthless paper by creating more of the same. Nevertheless, governments will continue to print since this is the only remedy they know. Therefore, we are soon likely to enter a phase of money printing of a magnitude that the world has never experienced. But his will not save the Western World which is likely to go in to a decline lasting at least 20 years but most probably a lot longer.

The End of an Era
The hyperinflationary depression that many western countries, including the US and the UK, will experience is likely to mark the end of an era that has lasted over 200 years since the industrial revolution. A major part of the growth in the last 100 years and especially in the last 40 years has been built on an unsustainable build-up of debt levels. These debt levels will continue to swell for another few years until the coming hyperinflation in the West leads to a destruction of real asset values and a debt implosion.

 

[jonKranked]

soooo...........


buy gunz now??

 

[Pesqueeb]

soooo...........


buy gunz now??

..and ammo, don't forget ammo. Lots.

 

[ridiculous]

I love Zerohedge. Easily the best at going from total doom to total hilarity. By that I mean reading pretty much any article and then reading the comments section regarding that article.

Take this fine dialogue for example.

by Mercury
on Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:03
#523770

Soooo....I'm off to do some food shopping soon. Are green bananas still a buy?

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by Ripped Chunk
on Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:12
#523789

I would shop for banana clips instead.

 

[Pesqueeb]

I don't know. I've learned a lot reading there, but calling them "bearish" doesn't even begin to describe what a negative view of the world they have over there.

 

[DaveW]

Since Joker can't be here anymore

Eh what happened???
Someone bring out the ban hammer??

 

[Pesqueeb]

Eh what happened???
Someone bring out the ban hammer??

Oh no. His new "job" has taken him away.

 

[jimmydean]

Eh what happened???
Someone bring out the ban hammer??

He can no longer be associated with the free thinker types based on his new job description. If they had any idea just how much insider info he gives us, they would prosecute.

 

[Toshi]

10 year Treasury bonds are yielding 2.58% as of today. It'd insane to NOT print money in this environment given the continued recession (in all aspects except in that we're weakly positive in GDP growth on paper).

http://money.cnn.com/data/bonds/

 

[stevew]

Oh no. His new "job" has taken him away.

is his new business venture giving stock tips in fortune cookies?

 

[ohio]

The doomsdayish stuff just makes no sense. When you step back from pure macro-finance, you realize that the world has actually managed quite well to produce sufficient goods and services for everyone in the developed world, and trade them. We just haven't priced them properly. To believe this will lead to total collapse means you have to believe that people would prefer to just stop producing those goods and services that others will still need, and that the creditors in this equation would rather bring the world into the dark ages than revalue their debt.

We may experience some nasty inflation, and America in particular is in for some sticker shock on imports when that happens, but we're not going Mad Max just yet.

 

[Pesqueeb]

but we're not going Mad Max just yet.

Damn it man. No Tina?

 

[BurlyShirley]

We may experience some nasty inflation, and America in particular is in for some sticker shock on imports when that happens, but we're not going Mad Max just yet.

The sooner we get to midgets riding retards the better, I say.

 

[ohio]

The sooner we get to midgets riding retards the better, I say.

Yes, but that's always true, and seeing as I live in San Francisco I can have it anytime I want.

 

[stoney]

Yeah, those guys make me look downright bullish. I agree with Ohio on this. The ZH guys have gotten really negative, to the point that I only read headlines and keep it up to pull stories to reference what clients are talking about.

I can't give any 'advise' any more because I am now a broker and there is all sorts of legal isht that I can get into. If it matters, I am still ~70% cash currently after I sold off my large position in DNDN before I started at my new firm.

In my PA I am looking to go back in, but in more defensive names. I now have a 30-day lockup and need an investment basis for why I am going into a name (can't trade, go short, or use options), so I am building a relatively defensive, high dividend yielding portfolio that I can just use as my base and build from there (vs trade into/out of).

I am still a generally bearish individual, so finding long-only names is a challenge for me, but since I am now working on a 5yr+ time frame, when I find a good one I am wiling to back up the truck. If anything, I am moving away from technical and momentum trading and back to true fundamentals.

 

[stoney]

He can no longer be associated with the free thinker types based on his new job description. If they had any idea just how much insider info he gives us, they would prosecute.

Jack ass. In a pipe dream that I even have access to secret info.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Run for the hills!

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).

Dante, Joker, what say you?

 

[rockofullr]

WTF are you speaking in code?

 

[Pesqueeb]

WTF are you speaking in code?

Long story short: Economy bad, signs point towards worse. Maybe much worse, depending on your point of view.

 

[rockofullr]

Long story short: Economy bad, signs point towards worse. Maybe much worse, depending on your point of view.

why cant you economy geeks ever have good news (lately)

 

[dante]

why cant you economy geeks ever have good news (lately)

Because the economy sucks?

edit: Ok, actually I don't think it sucks. It's not great, but I doubt we're going to be entering into a ZH-described financial Apocalypse.

1) Factory orders are up. Maybe not for US orders, but the Baltic Dry Index is showing definite improvement over Sept 2009. Shipping costs show this as well, as the cost for a container from China has gone from ~$900 a year ago to $2,500+ today.

2) US Productivity is down. Companies can't do more with less, and can't even do the same with the same employment levels either. They have to either start hiring or cut back on forecasts / lose sales.

3) Companies have a LOT of cash. They've been sitting on it waiting for the other shoe to drop... if it doesn't, they're going to need to start hiring people.

In the end, nobody knows. 90% of the stuff you hear out there comes from preconceived notions and not objectively looking at the facts (and yes, that includes my outlook as well)...

 

[Pesqueeb]

Because the economy sucks?

edit: Ok, actually I don't think it sucks. It's not great, but I doubt we're going to be entering into a ZH-described financial Apocalypse.

I certainly hope your right. I'd move all my 401k into the treasuries fund but I don't think at this point that they are any safer. Those happy go lucky kids over at ZH are declaring Omen #3 with corresponding articles declaring the coming dawn of hyper-inflation. Good Times!

Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did we just have a second, and far more solid Hindenburg Omen confirmation today, with 82 new highs, and 94 new lows, but the Saturday is the day when Iran launches its nuclear reactor, and everyone will be very jumpy regarding any piece of news out of the middle east. As for the H.O., the more validations we receive, the greater the confusion in the market, and the greater the possibility for a melt down (or up, as the case may be now that the market is unlike what it has ever been in the past). Furthermore, with implied correlation at record levels (JCJ at around 78), any potential crash will be like never before, as virtually all stocks now go up or down as one, more so than ever before. And should the HFT STOP command take place, the future should be very interesting indeed (at least for the primary dealers, and the Atari consoles which are unable to VWAP dump their holdings in the nano second before stuff goes bidless).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/second-hindenburg-omen-confirmation-many-days-third-ho-event-one-week

 

[Silver]

Why are you worried about what a bunch of idiots reading tea leaves think?

edit: You should be just as worried about that Mayan 2012 bull**** and other bits of numerology.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Why are you worried about what a bunch of idiots reading tea leaves think?

edit: You should be just as worried about that Mayan 2012 bull**** and other bits of numerology.

Your right of course. I can't help it though. It would be nice to retire sometime is all.

 

[Silver]

Your right of course. I can't help it though. It would be nice to retire sometime is all.

You don't get to retire. Welcome to the wonders of the defined contribution benefit plan.

 

[ohio]

It's nice when leading business thinking starts to align with my elitist liberal belief system that states people are idiots that need smart people to protect them from themselves.

 

[Pesqueeb]

It's nice when leading business thinking starts to align with my elitist liberal belief system that states people are idiots that need smart people to protect them from themselves.

Commie.


God can you imagine the teabagger frothing frenzy that would come of a proposal like that? I currently put a total 12 percent into my 401k. 8 from me, 4 company match.

 

[ohio]

Commie.

Want to explode a conservative's head? Point out how running social security like a business (per the above) is the opposite of turning it into a pure free market.

 

[The Earl]

as opposed to liberals taking my earned $$$ from me to give to those who live off the handout.
and use it to support a ever increasing(non producing)public sector ???

yeah, that's the way to economic prosperity.

so......conservatives created the social security system ???
no liberals had a part in its plundering ???

dang !!!
leave it to a bay area boy to enlighten us all.

 

[The Earl]

Long story short: Economy bad, signs point towards worse. Maybe much worse, depending on your point of view.

not really so much a point of view, as viewing reality.

Four months ago Joe Biden said that additional administration stimulus spending would add 500,000 jobs a month. But last week's unemployment claims are the highest in nearly a year. Is this additional administration stimulus working or is it just more out-of-control spending ???

just sayin'........

 

[Silver]

not really so much a point of view, as viewing reality.

Four months ago Joe Biden said that additional administration stimulus spending would add 500,000 jobs a month. But last week's unemployment claims are the highest in nearly a year. Is this additional administration stimulus working or is it just more out-of-control spending ???

just sayin'........

Fvck off, asshole.

 

[kidwoo]

not really so much a point of view, as viewing reality.

Four months ago Joe Biden said that additional administration stimulus spending would add 500,000 jobs a month. But last week's unemployment claims are the highest in nearly a year. Is this additional administration stimulus working or is it just more out-of-control spending ???

Four whole months? What an asshole!!

just sayin'........DEERRRRRRRRR

 

[ohio]

leave it to a bay area boy to enlighten us all.

If you can manage to unwedge your foot from your gob, you should read the article I linked. Until then, you've brought a block of cheese to a gun fight.

 

[kidwoo]

If you can manage to unwedge your foot from your gob, you should read the article I linked. Until then, you've brought a block of cheese to a gun fight.

I quit reading at "Harverd something something"


I refuse to be indoctrenat.........endoctrinayt...........indock trin 8................**** you HIPPY!

 

[Pesqueeb]

N8's Back!

 

[The Earl]

so.....
am i supposed to be intimidated by your little snippy remarks ???
not likely.

this place hasn't changed a bit.

B.T.W. what ever happened to lord opie ???
he was always good for a laugh too.

and hey, how about those endless taxpayer bailouts of union pension funds ???
that subject alone should keep you pelosi fans ridiculing me for the rest of the day !!!

anxiously awaiting the collection of little red squares in my profile as i get under your skin.

 

[The Earl]

If you can manage to unwedge your foot from your gob, you should read the article I linked. Until then, you've brought a block of cheese to a gun fight.

dang.
who knew snippy little liberals carried guns ???

 

[kidwoo]

so.....
am i supposed to be intimidated by your little snippy remarks ???
not likely.

You know this is just an internet forum right?

 

[Pesqueeb]

 

[binary visions]

Obvious troll is obvious banned.