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The futility of the Prius and the end of the world as we know it

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syadasti

i heart mac
Apr 15, 2002
12,690
290
VT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever

The shift to renewables is happening shockingly fast, but not fast enough to prevent perilous levels of global warming.

About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables. Still, without additional policy action by governments, global carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will continue to rise until 2029 and will remain 13 percent higher than today's pollution levels in 2040.

That's not enough to prevent the surface of the Earth from heating more than 2 degrees Celsius, according to BNEF. That's considered the point-of-no-return for some worst consequences of climate change.
 

syadasti

i heart mac
Apr 15, 2002
12,690
290
VT
Isn't battery technology still a fairly significantly limiting factor?
No, NOAA already did a huge study it's completely feasible to rapidly switch to renewables, RTFT:

http://www.ridemonkey.com/threads/the-futility-of-the-prius-and-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.240305/page-7#post-3954378

Today we have the Telsa and Mercedes commercialized home systems and numerous larger scale systems all the way up to older huge ones like this:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/27/2524501/hydro-pumped-storage-climate-change/


Various new stuff in the wings. Misc recent coverage:
http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/04/21/how-10-innovative-companies-are-giving-energy-storage-jolt

http://gizmodo.com/3-new-kinds-of-battery-that-just-might-change-the-world-1713221624

http://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/energy-storage-solar-em4888/
 

syadasti

i heart mac
Apr 15, 2002
12,690
290
VT
There are people who say we could actually produce as much meat as we’re producing now on pastures and farms using more agro-ecological or more sustainable methods. What’s pretty clear is that we shouldn’t be raising meat in factories, the way 98 percent of our meat is being produced right now. It’s an environmental, ethical, public health issue. There’s a lot wrong with the way we produce meat now.
Meat production may be the biggest thing. Food costs in general are way lower than the actual environmental and public health costs. We treat food resources as if they were inexhaustible. We fell into this habit when they seemed inexhaustible. Now we know we’ve learned this doesn’t work, but we’re not adjusting quickly enough.
http://www.wired.com/2015/07/mark-bittman-interview-california-drought-food/
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
41,161
10,100
anyone here old enough to remember when scientists blamed drought on global cooling?
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,002
22,036
Sleazattle
anyone here old enough to remember when scientists blamed drought on global cooling?
That is where scientists fuck up. Instead of maintaining the same point of views for centuries, those crazy fuckers change their mind every time a new bit of knowledge or evidence shows up. You never know when they are going to come up crazy ideas like computers or stuff. It is like they are constantly on their periods. Amirite?
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
41,161
10,100
That is where scientists fuck up. Instead of maintaining the same point of views for centuries, those crazy fuckers change their mind every time a new bit of knowledge or evidence shows up. You never know when they are going to come up crazy ideas like computers or stuff. It is like they are constantly on their periods. Amirite?
correct.

mistakes are made.
 

syadasti

i heart mac
Apr 15, 2002
12,690
290
VT
correct.

mistakes are made.
This isn't an isolated study or two, it's thousands with overwhelming consensus from dozens of fields with countless observations that confirm it. Sticking your head in the sand at this point is exactly that. The deniers are even convinced and have moved on from not happening to not man-made (which is also throughly debunked.):

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/


Also there was no pause:

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/we-may-see-a-supercharged-surge-in-warming
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,751
8,750
China Burns Much More Coal Than Reported, Complicating Climate Talks




>>>>>

Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, said that based on his preliminary analysis, the new data implied that China had released about 900 million metric tons more carbon dioxide from 2011 to 2013.

That would be an 11 percent increase in emissions, he said. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated before the revision that China had emitted 8.25 billion tons of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in 2012. Dr. Korsbakken, a physicist, emphasized that deeper analysis of the new data was needed before firm conclusions could be drawn.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,751
8,750
Highlights:



From cradle to grave, BEVs are cleaner. On average,
BEVs representative of those sold today produce less
than half the global warming emissions of comparable
gasoline-powered vehicles, even when the higher emissions
associated with BEV manufacturing are taken into
consideration. Based on modeling of the two most popular
BEVs available today and the regions where they are
currently being sold, excess manufacturing emissions are
offset within 6 to 16 months of average driving.

EVs are now driving cleaner than ever before. Driving
an average EV results in lower global warming emissions
than driving a gasoline car that gets 50 miles per gallon
(MPG) in regions covering two-thirds of the U.S. population,
up from 45 percent in our 2012 report. Based on
where EVs are being sold in the United States today, the
average EV produces global warming emissions equal to a
gasoline vehicle with a 68 MPG fuel economy rating.

EVs will become even cleaner as more electricity is
generated by renewable sources of energy.
In a grid
composed of 80 percent renewable electricity, manufacturing
a BEV will result in an over 25 percent reduction in
emissions from manufacturing and an 84 percent reduction
in emissions from driving—for an overall reduction of
more than 60 percent (compared with a BEV manufactured
and driven today).
The above is old hat, just with slightly better numbers compared to prior years, as expected with a gradually greening electrical grid.

This analysis below is new, and notable because these kinds of papers usually just focus on tiny electric cars and their tiny gasoline equivalents. This is a shot across the bow by comparing a Tesla to a full size gasoline car:



This is interesting to me, as I offset all my electricity consumed in Denver with wind power. When I get more solar for the house I'll be dropping in efficiency… hmm.

 

junkyard

You might feel a little prick.
Sep 1, 2015
2,616
2,347
San Diego
I'm not sure if people choose to ignore or are just unaware of the manufacturing and recycling of vehicles. These newer vehicles are full of rare earth metals that are mined in china which we all know polutes a lot. All those electronics, lots of wire made of copper, arnt copper mines bad? Then there is the recycling, well people love recycling you say. They don't! Because it's ugly looking. So they regulate the shit out of it. Then the plastics, sure they can be recycled but why? You burn more fuel and produce more waste then it's worth. If you really wanna do good for the enviroment just buy used and take care of shit. Maintain it. They say it takes as much fuel to make a car as it burns in ten years, supposedly more for hibrids and electrics. Not many people keep a car that long though.
 

eric strt6

Resident Curmudgeon
Sep 8, 2001
24,379
15,144
directly above the center of the earth
I'm not sure if people choose to ignore or are just unaware of the manufacturing and recycling of vehicles. These newer vehicles are full of rare earth metals that are mined in china which we all know polutes a lot. All those electronics, lots of wire made of copper, arnt copper mines bad? Then there is the recycling, well people love recycling you say. They don't! Because it's ugly looking. So they regulate the shit out of it. Then the plastics, sure they can be recycled but why? You burn more fuel and produce more waste then it's worth. If you really wanna do good for the enviroment just buy used and take care of shit. Maintain it. They say it takes as much fuel to make a car as it burns in ten years, supposedly more for hibrids and electrics. Not many people keep a car that long though.
Mine: 2001 Volvo XC70 256,000 miles, 2003 F350 129,000 miles, 2011 F350 92,000 miles 2011 VW Jetta 65,000 miles. we will drive them until they fall apart.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,751
8,750
I'm not sure if people choose to ignore or are just unaware of the manufacturing and recycling of vehicles. These newer vehicles are full of rare earth metals that are mined in china which we all know polutes a lot. All those electronics, lots of wire made of copper, arnt copper mines bad? Then there is the recycling, well people love recycling you say. They don't! Because it's ugly looking. So they regulate the shit out of it. Then the plastics, sure they can be recycled but why? You burn more fuel and produce more waste then it's worth. If you really wanna do good for the enviroment just buy used and take care of shit. Maintain it. They say it takes as much fuel to make a car as it burns in ten years, supposedly more for hibrids and electrics. Not many people keep a car that long though.
Read the linked PDF. Payback time for manufacturing energy cost, etc. is under a year for modern EVs, iirc. 10 years is totally bunk.
 

junkyard

You might feel a little prick.
Sep 1, 2015
2,616
2,347
San Diego
Maybe im reading it wrong, but it looks to me they are calculating the emissions of productions where the vehicles are sold. It also seems they are calculating with the miles at 130-170 thousand miles. which to most people is about ten years. Its hard to know how much of the manufacturing is calculated. Like all the shipping on the mined and mining products, the mining tractors and the manufacturing of those tractors. The hauling of the scrap across the oceans. So i have to wonder how much is propaganda. Im not very educated im just in the scrap buisness.
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
67,827
14,167
In a van.... down by the river
Maybe im reading it wrong, but it looks to me they are calculating the emissions of productions where the vehicles are sold. It also seems they are calculating with the miles at 130-170 thousand miles. which to most people is about ten years. Its hard to know how much of the manufacturing is calculated. Like all the shipping on the mined and mining products, the mining tractors and the manufacturing of those tractors. The hauling of the scrap across the oceans. So i have to wonder how much is propaganda. Im not very educated im just in the scrap buisness.
You Fred Sanford???
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,751
8,750
Subquoting what I quoted above (emphasis added):

"Based on modeling of the two most popular BEVs available today and the regions where they are currently being sold, excess manufacturing emissions are offset within 6 to 16 months of average driving."
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
Subquoting what I quoted above (emphasis added):

"Based on modeling of the two most popular BEVs available today and the regions where they are currently being sold, excess manufacturing emissions are offset within 6 to 16 months of average driving."
Isn't that saying the excess emissions produced for EVs, those above and beyond the emissions inherent in building a car (ie Ford Fusion gas vs hybrid) are offset in that timeline?
Basically that EVs pollute more to make but it's not that bad.
 

junkyard

You might feel a little prick.
Sep 1, 2015
2,616
2,347
San Diego
Nope im redd foxx. Oh and that joke is pretty dam old here. Older than me. Technically we prefer the term auto dismantling, wreaking, and recycling. Because none of this stuff is junk, sometimes it may look that way but its just unorganized inventory.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,751
8,750
Isn't that saying the excess emissions produced for EVs, those above and beyond the emissions inherent in building a car (ie Ford Fusion gas vs hybrid) are offset in that timeline?
Basically that EVs pollute more to make but it's not that bad.
Good point. That does seem to be the fair comparison, though, as the baseline energy to build the gas version has an infinite payback time...
 

syadasti

i heart mac
Apr 15, 2002
12,690
290
VT
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jul/15/clean-energy-wont-save-us-economic-system-can

"Let’s imagine, just for argument’s sake, that we are able to get off fossil fuels and switch to 100% clean energy. There is no question this would be a vital step in the right direction, but even this best-case scenario wouldn’t be enough to avert climate catastrophe.

Why? Well, first, the burning of fossil fuels only accounts for about 70% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The other 30% comes from a number of causes, including deforestation, and industrial livestock farming, which produces 90m tonnes of methane per year and most of the world’s anthropogenic nitrous oxide. Both of these gases are vastly more potent than CO2 when it comes to global warming. Livestock farming alone contributes more to global warming than all the cars, trains, planes and ships in the world. There are also a number of industrial processes that contribute significantly, and then there are our landfills, which pump out huge amounts of methane – 16% of the world’s total."
 

jdcamb

Tool Time!
Feb 17, 2002
20,050
8,769
Nowhere Man!
The Cops almost never find asphyxiated corpses in a Prius at the airport that I know of. Unless that sort of news is not reported on the Guardian....
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
67,827
14,167
In a van.... down by the river