[Westy]

Made an offer on a place in Ballard. Only $355/sq ft. Bargain eh? Reckon I have a 50/50 change of having the top bid. Offered 6% over list. Wouldn't be surprised if it sold for +10%. Recently watched a place go for 16% over list, a block away from Aurora (meth, crack and prostitutes). A similar home off of Phinney ridge went for a few thousand less than a similar list. Shit be officially crazy here. Wandering meth-heads seem to increase property values more than mountain views.

 

[Toshi]

I hear writing a letter to the buyer helps, too. Are you waiving appraisal and inspection contingencies? (Is that what it's called?)

 

[Adventurous]

My buddy recently sold his house and had both people write him a letter. One was from a 6 year old kid who drew a picture of themself with the house and their single parent. Talk about throwing down.

 

[Nick]

My buddy recently sold his house and had both people write him a letter. One was from a 6 year old kid who drew a picture of themself with the house and their single parent. Talk about throwing down.

 

[Westy]

I hear writing a letter to the buyer helps, too. Are you waiving appraisal and inspection contingencies? (Is that what it's called?)

Yup. But to no avail. Was outbid by a huge margin. It sounds like they got several offers around 20% over list. There are very few houses on the market right now. These are panic bids. Spring time should bring some sanity to the situation, hopefully. My agent recommends sitting things out for a few months. That is how crazy things are, real estate agents are saying it is a terrible time to buy.

Got a raise and a bonus today, rather generous for only being here for 9 months. Should allow a little more room with pricing, but if things continue the way they are I see myself quitting and heading back to Virginia. Mukilteo is a possible option but I will not live in Lynnwood or pickup truck country. Not that is such a bad thing, but not why I came out here. 75% sure I can get my old job back at Merck with a sizable raise.

 

[Westy]

My buddy recently sold his house and had both people write him a letter. One was from a 6 year old kid who drew a picture of themself with the house and their single parent. Talk about throwing down.

When I sold my house I got a letter from the buyer. A sob story from a single mother. Didn't make a damn bit of difference to me. In that market she could have easily bought a similar house down the road for 15% less. Don't see why I had to give money away because she wanted hard wood floors and better landscaping. Past basic shelter we go from need to want.

Things got more interesting when I googled her name. She popped up in a number of local news stories. Her story was somewhat fabricated, not an innocent victim of a cruel world but a raging dumpster fire. I probably would have turned down her offer if my old neighbors who I really liked still were in the 'hood. Luckily I hated my latest neighbors and didn't care if they had a trainwreck living next door.

 

[Toshi]

Yup. But to no avail. Was outbid by a huge margin. It sounds like they got several offers around 20% over list. There are very few houses on the market right now.

Yikes. A few years of Trump might calm things down. I also hope the higher end of the market might be more sane, although with the Chinese money influx that may well not be true.

The nice thing about living with the MIL in the interim would be to have great flexibility when house hunting. The only deadline I'd be up against would be to sell this house before Dec 22, 2020 (so as to have lived in it for 2 of the past 5 years) or keep it indefinitely.

 

[Westy]

Yikes. A few years of Trump might calm things down. I also hope the higher end of the market might be more sane, although with the Chinese money influx that may well not be true.

The nice thing about living with the MIL in the interim would be to have great flexibility when house hunting. The only deadline I'd be up against would be to sell this house before Dec 22, 2020 (so as to have lived in it for 2 of the past 5 years) or keep it indefinitely.

Word of warning. According to Turbo Tax, despite having lived in my house for 3 years out of the last 5 after renting, I still owe tax on capital gains. I just owe on the fraction of gains based on years rented over lived in, plus any capital based deductions I took when renting. I thought I was in the clear in regards to taxes. Of course this is my conclusion from answering turbo tax questions, I need to read up on the actual code.

 

[Toshi]

Word of warning. According to Turbo Tax, despite having lived in my house for 3 years out of the last 5 after renting, I still owe tax on capital gains. I just owe on the fraction of gains based on years rented over lived in, plus any capital based deductions I took when renting. I thought I was in the clear in regards to taxes. Of course this is my conclusion from answering turbo tax questions, I need to read up on the actual code.

TurboTax appears to be correct.

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p523/ar02.html#en_US_2016_publink100011707

Did you have non-residence gain? If there were times after 2008 when neither you nor your spouse (or a former spouse) used your home as a main residence, and didn’t meet the situations under the Second test, above, do the following calculation:
(1) Enter the total number of days after 2008 when neither you nor your spouse (or former spouse) used the home as a main residence. This is the non-use days
(2) Enter the total number of days you owned your home (counting all days, not just days after 2008). This is the days owned
(3) Divide the non-use days by the days owned. Calculate to 3 decimal places. This is your non-residence factor
Multiply line 3b by your non-residence factor. This is your non-residence gain c.
For example, if you owned your home for 10 years (3,650 days), didn’t use it as your main residence for 500 days after 2008, and had a $20,000 gain, your calculation would look like this.

• Calculation of non-residence factor: 500 ÷ 3,650 = 0.137
  
  
• Calculation of non-residence gain: $20,000 × 0.137 = $2,740

I clearly did not know this either. Were this scenario to transpire I'd be more likely to be a perpetual absentee slum^H^H^H^H landlord then.



Edit: Upon further reflection I realize I need the equity (and projected appreciation) from this house in order to swing a Seattle house at all, since I'm going to try to avoid another "doctor loan" with a low down payment and instead do a 20% down loan with the goal of actually paying it off some day.

Therefore I'd be selling it sometime in the late spring or summer of 2020, since that's apparently the hot season for sales.

 

[SkaredShtles]

TurboTax appears to be correct.

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p523/ar02.html#en_US_2016_publink100011707

I clearly did not know this either. Were this scenario to transpire I'd be more likely to be a perpetual absentee slum^H^H^H^H landlord then.

Fucking tax code.

 

[Toshi]

Fucking tax code.

It makes sense that it should be prorated, though.

When I saw you quoted my post I thought it'd be to give me props for my pseudo-emacs delete bit, but alas...

 

[SkaredShtles]

It makes sense that it should be prorated, though.

When I saw you quoted my post I thought it'd be to give me props for my pseudo-emacs delete bit, but alas...

Get that Emacs bullshit outta here.

 

[Toshi]

I actually prefer vi(m), but it doesn't have the same ring to use "esc x" or "esc dd" for the whole line.

 

[StiHacka]

You couldESCBcwshould go with the vim syntax, makes me much moar comfortable than effing emacs.

 

[SkaredShtles]

<snip> effing emacs.

QFT.

 

[Toshi]

Hey @Adventurous:

1) Planning any more alpine skiing this season?

2) What are you running tire-wise? I know you picked up an E13 TRS tire or two from Nick but didn't those rip or otherwise go by the wayside?

I still have the OEM Ardent on the rear of my bike and am just thinking forward to late April when the lifts close and my thoughts turn to East Coast Front Range roxx. One thought is that I need the most help climbing so maybe should stick with that low profile Ardent, but the other is that I do this for fun (and for Strava glory in my little sandbox ) and something grippier would be the ticket.

 

[Adventurous]

Hey @Adventurous:

1) Planning any more alpine skiing this season?

2) What are you running tire-wise? I know you picked up an E13 TRS tire or two from Nick but didn't those rip or otherwise go by the wayside?

I still have the OEM Ardent on the rear of my bike and am just thinking forward to late April when the lifts close and my thoughts turn to East Coast Front Range roxx. One thought is that I need the most help climbing so maybe should stick with that low profile Ardent, but the other is that I do this for fun (and for Strava glory in my little sandbox ) and something grippier would be the ticket.

Not sure on the ski thing yet. My older brother keeps saying he wants to come out and ski, whether he actually does it another thing.

I have the e.13 TRS up front with a Specialized Slaughter SS in the rear. Still very, very pleased with the combo for 95% of conditions, the only place it disappoints is climbing through really loose stuff or on polished rock surfaces. The front holds on through both but the rear, predictably, struggles.

I can't say enough good things about the TRS up front. I like it way more than the DHF and Butchers I rode for years prior to that. I tried it in the rear and it had fantastic grip, it was just a bit slow. Maxxis High Roller perhaps for you?

 

[Toshi]

Or I could migrate my Minion DHF (I think) from the front to the rear as per this thread and slap an e.13 TRS up front. Me likely that idea.


Edit: I have a DHR II on the front. Even better for the rear, that.

 

[StiHacka]

I can't say enough good things about the TRS up front. I like it way more than the DHF and Butchers I rode for years prior to that. I tried it in the rear and it had fantastic grip, it was just a bit slow.

Best front tire for a trail bike evah. A bit too much of a tire for the rear.

 

[Toshi]

Are we talking about the Sticky Triple or Durable Dual compounds here?

 

[StiHacka]

I have the TRS+ dual compound.

 

[Serial Midget]

I just ordered a TRS+ triple (i hope) for the front and a TRS Race dual for the rear of the Giggle Pig. I need the snow to melt.

 

[Toshi]

I just ordered a TRS+ triple (i hope) for the front and a TRS Race dual for the rear of the Giggle Pig. I need the snow to melt.

A brief look indicates TRSr is triple and soft, TRS+ is dual and hard.

 

[Serial Midget]

A brief look indicates TRSr is triple and soft, TRS+ is dual and hard.

I guess I should have looked...

Edit: I ordered right, wrote wrong. Triple compound for the front and dual for the rear. Free shipping from Arts Cyclery.

 

[Adventurous]

I've got the TRS+. I did manage to cut the sidewall but then again I've never had a trail casing tire not get cut eventually.

 

[Toshi]

Another e-bike idea for Seattle:

IZIP E3 Dash.

$2600. Assist to 28 mph from a 350W Currie/TransX mid-drive. 700C wheelset with 45 mm tires for which I could and would substitute my nice commuter DT Swiss 350 setup with 47 mm tires. Ditto with the rack, for my Tubus. Hell, I could even swap in my XT drivetrain if 2010 XT >> 2017 Deore for some reason.

The one downside, and it is a big downside actually, is that this budget mid-drive setup only has cadence sensing. I think I'd like a proper torque sensing setup instead, like on the Trek XM700+ that I've posted about before:

Trek XM700+.

$3500. Assist to 28 mph from a 350W Bosch mid-drive. Similarly 700c wheelset but only 38 mm tires stock so I'm not sure the frame or especially fenders would have 47 mm clearance. While 38 mm wouldn't be great for my current (me-powered) soft surface commute it'd probably be just fine on wet Seattle paved roads so that's not a deal-killer.

There are rack bosses so my Tubus would slot right on, and my negative rise stem + swept bar setup would do a lot to cure that overly high front end height. Yeah, that could work.

Ultimately it'd be cooler if I could have a light rail commute or the like and rely on expensive electric-vehicle infrastructure that someone else subsidizes, but West Seattle has a not-insubstantial streak of NIMBYism and thus the only real public transit is a Bus Rapid Transit line.

 

[Toshi]

Trek Super Commuter+ 8S. Rolls right off the tongue, that name.

Perhaps the coolest looking e-bike I've seen. Checks all the boxes: torque-sensing Bosch mid-drive with assist up to 28 mph, integrated lights, and the mid-drive doesn't look like an afterthought as on that XM700+.

$5000 sure is a pretty penny, though. That's crabonz trailbike and legit motorcycle territory, although neither of those answer the commute issue in question, which is to avoid the 10th worst traffic in the nation.

I idly revived my spreadsheet with DIY e-bike specs, too, with parts from ebikes.ca. The electric bits are the simple part for that, and starting with some big brand urban/commuter bike would get one the bones +/- parts from my 29er. The problem is that such a beast would still be unreliable and would still be dead ugly. This Trek is striking, at least.

I'll have much more clarity after my May 8 interview with regard to sites at which I might work, and how often. I really don't want to be penned up in a car in I-5 traffic but it could come to that.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

Trek Super Commuter+ 8S. Rolls right off the tongue, that name.

Perhaps the coolest looking e-bike I've seen. Checks all the boxes: torque-sensing Bosch mid-drive with assist up to 28 mph, integrated lights, and the mid-drive doesn't look like an afterthought as on that XM700+.

$5000 sure is a pretty penny, though. That's crabonz trailbike and legit motorcycle territory, although neither of those answer the commute issue in question, which is to avoid the 10th worst traffic in the nation.

I idly revived my spreadsheet with DIY e-bike specs, too, with parts from ebikes.ca. The electric bits are the simple part for that, and starting with some big brand urban/commuter bike would get one the bones +/- parts from my 29er. The problem is that such a beast would still be unreliable and would still be dead ugly. This Trek is striking, at least.

I'll have much more clarity after my May 8 interview with regard to sites at which I might work, and how often. I really don't want to be penned up in a car in I-5 traffic but it could come to that.

Lard-assed ride is lard-assed.

 

[StiHacka]

Lard-assed ride -> lard-assed rider.

FTFY.

 

[Nick]

I might have missed something ... are you definitely moving to Seattle Toshi?

 

[Toshi]

Lard-assed ride is lard-assed.

It's thick, like a brick house.

FTFY.

I was waiting for that.

I might have missed something ... are you definitely moving to Seattle Toshi?

Nothing definite... but I have the motivation (from the inequity at work plus the other fast guy leaving himself in July) and the interview (May 8). Since I have to give 6 months (!) notice then the earliest I'd be gone would be around Jan 2018, so I'm hitting up the trails this summer with you guys regardless.

 

[Toshi]

I idly revived my spreadsheet with DIY e-bike specs, too, with parts from ebikes.ca. The electric bits are the simple part for that, and starting with some big brand urban/commuter bike would get one the bones +/- parts from my 29er. The problem is that such a beast would still be unreliable and would still be dead ugly.

I am rather bored at work today so finished sketching out a DIY build.

It'd start with a Surly Ogre, for compatibility with my nice 29er wheels (or at least the one that wouldn't be replaced):

I'd go with the frameset because I don't like their stock parts and wouldn't use many of them. I'd reuse the rear wheel, rear drivetrain, bars, grips, stem, brakes, tires, rack, and lights from my 29er (latter via a custom 8.4V DC-DC converter?).

Complete specifics are very boring, so here would be the highlights:

- 1 x 10 setup since 44 x 11-42t would give me a very useful 8-29 mph range
- 14s frame-mounted lithium pack (51.8V nominal, hopefully less ugly overall than the linked setup), 13 Ah, rated for 40A as would be the now sine-wave controller (so quieter than my old setups)
- torque sensing bottom bracket with control logic through a newer generation of the same CycleAnalyst I used to run
- this would be a full torque-sensing pedelec, in other words
- 2 kW from the battery, and about 1000-1600W max to the pavement at climbing and cruising speeds, respectively, limited in reality on all but the steepest hills by my own output and the multiplier chosen
- even with getting a new frameset, King this, Thomson that, it'd be about as expensive as the cheapest complete e-bike above, that IZIP with only cadence sensing

Here's how it'd perform on the steep hill up from the water taxi to the level where my MIL's house is:

A mid-drive would have the advantage of running its 350W through the gears, but between me and it I could put down perhaps 600W to the ground. Me + the above hub motor running even in its inefficient, slow range would be about 1250W.

Maybe this would be worth the troubleshooting and cable management. Maybe.

 

[Westy]

Made an offer on another house. A tiny little joint that had some weird quirks that would bother the shit out of most people but I didn't care about. It was listed for $25K more than a similar but nicer place with mountain views just a block away sold for a month ago. I made a pretty aggressive offer but was beat by someone who went $100k over list with cash. The area has seen a steady and rapid rate of price increase, however the last few months have seen not a 1%/month increase, but what seems to be an insane 25% jump. If this is a real jump and not some isolated points of noise I am out of the market and will be looking for employment and residence elsewhere. If this is a trend, I think that even the good doctor may be SOL.

 

[Adventurous]

Made an offer on another house. A tiny little joint that had some weird quirks that would bother the shit out of most people but I didn't care about. It was listed for $25K more than a similar but nicer place with mountain views just a block away sold for a month ago. I made a pretty aggressive offer but was beat by someone who went $100k over list with cash. The area has seen a steady and rapid rate of price increase, however the last few months have seen not a 1%/month increase, but what seems to be an insane 25% jump. If this is a real jump and not some isolated points of noise I am out of the market and will be looking for employment and residence elsewhere. If this is a trend, I think that even the good doctor may be SOL.

$100K over in cash?!?!?!?! That's absolutely ridiculous. If we needed evidence that the next real estate bubble is on the horizon I think instances like this are a good indication that we aren't too far away.

 

[Toshi]

If this is a trend, I think that even the good doctor may be SOL.

Worst case is that we stay at the MIL's house indefinitely, and put some cash towards rebuilding/renovating it. I'd be ok with that, too–child care even closer at hand!

 

[SkaredShtles]

Worst case is that we stay at the MIL's house indefinitely, and put some cash towards rebuilding/renovating it. I'd be ok with that, too–child care even closer at hand!

 

[Toshi]

We lived there for a year during my fellowship (so 2013-2014) and it was actually great… except for the shitty, drafty, poorly lit house itself. My wife and her mom are very close, I get along with them, they like to cook, they like to take care of the kids. Win:win.

If this Seattle job thing happens we're living with her for at least 2-3 years anyway until I find out that I've made partner. I'd be making less than I make now for years 1 and 2 of the 3 year pre-partner track so it'd be more or less necessary if I want to be able to save up any money at all for a bigger-yet down payment.

 

[canadmos]

$100K over in cash?!?!?!?! That's absolutely ridiculous. If we needed evidence that the next real estate bubble is on the horizon I think instances like this are a good indication that we aren't too far away.

Check this bullshit out - https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/10/don-mills-home-sells-for-115-million-over-asking.html

 

[Westy]

$100K over in cash?!?!?!?! That's absolutely ridiculous. If we needed evidence that the next real estate bubble is on the horizon I think instances like this are a good indication that we aren't too far away.

The fact that it was cash makes it very different from the last bubble. There isn't some schlub that isn't going to be able to make payments when his interest only ARM goes up.

I suspect the lot size and location attracted a builder who will build a monster multi million dollar home. No way someone walking around with that kind of dinero would want to live in that house.

 

[Westy]

The number of homes for sale in Seattle has dropped significantly since November. I suspect uncertainty with the Trump administration is causing hesitation with people make big life moves. Some folks may now be fearful of moving out of the communist NW and into Trumpistan.