[Toshi]

Our old Prius actually was a much-loved car

Hell, if I dropped this super arbitrary desire for full-speed dynamic cruise control then I could consider revisiting the past:

https://www.carmax.com/car/14212988

Our old one was a 2006 and clearly with higher miles (bought at 89k and sold at 13xk?) but otherwise it's a dead ringer. Torklift makes a natively-2" hitch for it, too:

https://torkliftcentral.com/rving-and-towing/ecohitch/toyota/2004-2009-prius-gen-ii-ecohitch



Edit: Looking around a bit more, these should be valued at around $7k these days. The CarMax premium at the low end of the market is significant, apparently! This makes sense given our 2006's timeline: bought ~2010 for just under $12k as a CPO, sold in 2014 with significantly more miles on it for $9k.

Here's one that'll probably end up around that point, for example (higher buy it now but he's just fishing for an offer):

http://www.ebay.com/itm/292077468336?ul_noapp=true

This idea appeals to my inner miser. Just enough car to get me + a 4 bike Thule rack to the trailhead. If we stayed in Denver it + snows could work, whether via the passthrough (old car so who cares about a few drips at this point?) or roof bars. In Seattle it'd be totally kosher to stash it on the street for use in a pinch, or to slowly (and quietly) pad along in traffic on the West Seattle Bridge.

 

[6thElement]

I wouldn't want to put a four bike rack on the back of one of those. I could see that making the nose light on the handling front.

What kind of age do the batteries in those become useless, a major consideration I would think?

 

[Toshi]

If the nose is lightened then the car will be more fun and easy to rotate!



<cue jimmydeaned (or Toshi-in-WRXed) Prius photo>

The Prius actually has been amazingly reliable, inclusive of the traction battery. Very different story than with Honda's sad IMA hybrid system. My parents' example made it to 230k? 240k? miles without a battery replacement (albeit with a gas engine replacement) and anecdotally battery replacement hasn't been an issue. This makes sense since all but the plug-in variants to this day use staid NiMH chemistry and don't either fully discharge or charge during their use cycle.

 

[Toshi]

This idea appeals to my inner miser.

The counterpoint to this would be that thanks to the CO $5k extra tax credit the Prius Prime likely would be just about as cheap in the short and medium terms...

There's also the availability issue with the 2006-2009 idea: CarMax has 'em and can transfer them nationwide easily and cheaply, but they're about 40-50% over market as defined by eBay Motors as best as I can tell! Since they're cheap that "only" works out to ~$4k, but I still care about such amounts.

Related: after my experience with the bought-in-NJ, driven-back-to-Seattle-with-shooting-hearing-protectors-on WRX I'm not going to buy a car sight unseen again, noting that I even had that POS inspected!

Final piece of the equation is that Torklift, maker of that 2" hitch for the 2nd gen Prius, responded to my email query today and indeed will make a Prius Prime 2" hitch. Indeed, if were to be the first one to bring a Prime by their Kent, WA shop then they'd provide it for free in exchange for being the template vehicle.

That would leave the near-term "how do I schlep my bike around?" problem with a Prius Prime, but that actually looks quite easily addressed:

That adapter would probably wobble and generally be a piece of crap (and I certainly wouldn't use the extra 3rd and 4th bike attachment with it!) but it'd do for a summer and would keep the rack from scraping. I still have an extra locking pin around, I believe, and could rig up an anti-wobble screw setup if it came to that.

So unless some local grandma who drives 20 miles per week puts her 2009, 40k mile, loaded Prius up for sale privately...

 

[Nick]

why no roof rack?

 

[Toshi]

why no roof rack?

Sure, for skis. For bikes I'm all about the hitch rack. My right shoulder is chronically unstable (joint laxity + prior dislocations more than I can remember == Hill-Sachs deformity) so any kind of overhead press type motion is unpleasant.

 

[Adventurous]

The counterpoint to this would be that thanks to the CO $5k extra tax credit the Prius Prime likely would be just about as cheap in the short and medium terms...

There's also the availability issue with the 2006-2009 idea: CarMax has 'em and can transfer them nationwide easily and cheaply, but they're about 40-50% over market as defined by eBay Motors as best as I can tell! Since they're cheap that "only" works out to ~$4k, but I still care about such amounts.

Related: after my experience with the bought-in-NJ, driven-back-to-Seattle-with-shooting-hearing-protectors-on WRX I'm not going to buy a car sight unseen again, noting that I even had that POS inspected!

Final piece of the equation is that Torklift, maker of that 2" hitch for the 2nd gen Prius, responded to my email query today and indeed will make a Prius Prime 2" hitch. Indeed, if were to be the first one to bring a Prime by their Kent, WA shop then they'd provide it for free in exchange for being the template vehicle.

That would leave the near-term "how do I schlep my bike around?" problem with a Prius Prime, but that actually looks quite easily addressed:

That adapter would probably wobble and generally be a piece of crap (and I certainly wouldn't use the extra 3rd and 4th bike attachment with it!) but it'd do for a summer and would keep the rack from scraping. I still have an extra locking pin around, I believe, and could rig up an anti-wobble screw setup if it came to that.

So unless some local grandma who drives 20 miles per week puts her 2009, 40k mile, loaded Prius up for sale privately...

If you are going this route methinks it would be easy enough to pay a local fab shop a few bucks to chop up your 1 1/4" hitch and weld a 2" receiver in there. So long as you are convincing in promising them all you want to do is throw a bike rack on there I don't see any reason why they wouldn't.

 

[Toshi]

If you are going this route methinks it would be easy enough to pay a local fab shop a few bucks to chop up your 1 1/4" hitch and weld a 2" receiver in there. So long as you are convincing in promising them all you want to do is throw a bike rack on there I don't see any reason why they wouldn't.

This is true, and is the tactic that Ridemonkey's own narlus did to get his Civic into bike-hauling shape. (Then he got all uppity and bought a BMW 3 series from his salesman brother in law... ) I think it'd be more of a time sink and certainly more cost than the makeshift adapter, which would just need to see me through Torklift making their own legit product +/- being the guinea pig for it.

 

[Toshi]

More fruits of hypomania: over the past month I've had 3 papers accepted for publication, and a 4th de facto accepted pending minor revisions. Still have another paper out for review at the moment and am submitting a $25k grant application in a few days.

/me juggles many things

Edit: that 4th one was indeed accepted following revisions a few days back. #23.

 

[Toshi]

 

[Toshi]

I am turning excessive thought into action, like a boss:

I paid off the Land Cruiser's loan today. Tomorrow I head to a semi-local (Boulder) dealer and sign a buyer's order for a Prius Prime Advanced.

The Land Cruiser's now clean title should arrive far before the plug-in gets produced and shipped to these shores. I'll sell the Land Cruiser only when I have a firm delivery date.


Edit: DCU says 10-14 business days for the title to hit my hot hands. I'll probably be waiting much longer than that for the car to be produced, shipped from Japan, and then trucked to here anyway.

 

[Toshi]

(I picked the Boulder dealer because a) their internet person responded quickly to an online query, b) everyone seems to be sticking to MSRP, and c) they don't want a non-refundable deposit, unlike the other dealer that responded promptly.)

 

[Toshi]

So I signed the purchase order today. Weird experience. No money down, just my contact info, DL # up top and sparse details on the car down below. At first they didn't even want to take down a color but I got the Boulder-bearded sales dude to take down that + the dealer options I want. Price column just says "MSRP" and not a word more. They also had little certainty about lead time. "Maybe a month? Maybe more?"

Not too confidence inspiring, this process.

 

[SkaredShtles]

So I signed the purchase order today. Weird experience. No money down, just my contact info, DL # up top and sparse details on the car down below. At first they didn't even want to take down a color but I got the Boulder-bearded sales dude to take down that + the dealer options I want. Price column just says "MSRP" and not a word more. They also had little certainty about lead time. "Maybe a month? Maybe more?"

Not too confidence inspiring, this process.

On a related note... I'm gonna spend the equivalent of a new car on a new retaining wall.

 

[StiHacka]

On a related note... I'm gonna spend the equivalent of a new car on a new retaining wall.

How long / high? I might have to, too.

 

[SkaredShtles]

How long / high? I might have to, too.

It's 3 feet high - about... 70 feet long? Smaller 2nd level wall as well. Much shorter and only a couple feet tall.

Get this, though - both these walls go the FULL length of the neighbor's yard too.

 

[Toshi]

Other thoughts from Mountain Lion:

- Crawford Gulch Rd is finally rebuilt! Two lanes whole way now
- there has to be 3" of loose dirt on said rebuilt road on the north side hill down to Drew Hill Rd. I don't think a low clearance fwd Prius would have handled that…
- I let a helmetless rider on a dual sport motorcycle pass me on Drew Hill, thinking he would tear up Crawford Gulch's unpaved bit, but either he sucked or the traction truly was very bad. He waved me back by halfway up and I never saw him after that!

The sum of all of this is that I decided that if I stay here in Denver I'm either keeping the Land Cruiser or getting something similar to replace it. The Prius would be much more at home in Seattle so will be relegated to that plan. There's no chance of it being built, shipped to port, and trucked to Denver before my interview (May 8) so this all dovetails nicely…

 

[6thElement]

Whoever graded that stretch really effed it up. Was tough to find a good line going down and climbing back up today.

 

[Toshi]

Yuna's 2nd birthday coincided with Easter this year. My wife went crazy with the amount of crap she gave to the kids. Oh well. As long as I don't have to clean it all up...

More at the Google Photos link: https://goo.gl/photos/ArS7utd84eD67E1t8

(As a related side note, Google Photos has apparently replaced the ability to create albums in Google+. With this I lost the ability to hotlink from Google+ uploads. Thus imgur. This kind of sucks.)

 

[Toshi]

Whoever graded that stretch really effed it up. Was tough to find a good line going down and climbing back up today.

Somehow today it seemed to have more fine gravel on top? Might be illusory or due to wind blowing away the top soil?

there has to be 3" of loose dirt on said rebuilt road on the north side hill down to Drew Hill Rd. I don't think a low clearance fwd Prius would have handled that…

I saw a Ford Focus and a Chevy Malibu handle the hill today (or at least I infer the same from seeing them at the top and bottom going the proper way) so perhaps this is not the case wrt the Prius.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Prius Prime Advanced.

http://www.caranddriver.com/comparisons/2017-chevrolet-volt-premier-vs-2017-toyota-prius-prime-advanced-comparison-test-2017-toyota-prius-prime-advanced-page-2

"Let’s get something out of the way right up front: The Prius Prime is unattractive. How something so graceless, gawky, and odd emerged from a company as conservative as Toyota is shocking. Its design is so off-putting, it’s almost an anti-car statement. Designers often draw inspiration from ordinary objects, or from architecture, nature, and so on. In Blue Magnetism paint—a metallic teal—the thing appears to have been inspired by a disfigured puffer fish, a turquoise ring you’d find in a New Mexico gas station, and a 1958 Edsel"

 

[Toshi]

It does suffer from alien raccoon-face. The dark gray minimizes this. Passers-by in Seattle would love it.

 

[StiHacka]

http://www.caranddriver.com/comparisons/2017-chevrolet-volt-premier-vs-2017-toyota-prius-prime-advanced-comparison-test-2017-toyota-prius-prime-advanced-page-2

"Let’s get something out of the way right up front: The Prius Prime is unattractive. How something so graceless, gawky, and odd emerged from a company as conservative as Toyota is shocking. Its design is so off-putting, it’s almost an anti-car statement. Designers often draw inspiration from ordinary objects, or from architecture, nature, and so on. In Blue Magnetism paint—a metallic teal—the thing appears to have been inspired by a disfigured puffer fish, a turquoise ring you’d find in a New Mexico gas station, and a 1958 Edsel"

50-to-70 run, is a still-leisurely 7.0 seconds

 

[Toshi]

50-to-70 run, is a still-leisurely 7.0 seconds

Shit like that doesn't matter a whit when there's traffic, especially since I know how to properly merge. If there's not traffic then what's the hurry anyway?



The ability to creep along silently in traffic on its own with that fancy cruise control is the biggest draw, and if we move to West Seattle as threatened there'd be plenty of traffic on the West Seattle Bridge.

 

[Toshi]

Might as well cross-post it here, too. Lack of gimbal-action makes Toshi a sad boy and the video a bit hard to watch. Perhaps REI will start carrying a gimbal some day. 1 year no-questions returns is what I need for products apparently as shitty as the Karma Grip.

 

[Toshi]

Lots of lifestyle fluff in there--wouldn't life be nice if we were all millionaires relaxing on the beach with our just-diverse-enough group of friends?

The Kitty Hawk Flyer product itself is interesting, though. It qualifies as an ultralight so no pilot's license required. Octocopter design. Weatherized tablet computer presumably handling the control logic. 8 outrunner motors from the RC plane world, which can quite conceivably handle a pilot's weight so I can buy that this is real. Presumably the batteries are in the floats in this initial water-faring version.

 

[Westy]

Shit like that doesn't matter a whit when there's traffic, especially since I know how to properly merge. If there's not traffic then what's the hurry anyway?



The ability to creep along silently in traffic on its own with that fancy cruise control is the biggest draw, and if we move to West Seattle as threatened there'd be plenty of traffic on the West Seattle Bridge.

Especially if you make it back to the PNW where merging happens at -20mph highway speed with the expected entitlement of not only of others opening a slot for one to merge, but an immediate 4 lane transect to the HOV lane because traffic is backed up for some reason.

Compliance with HOV rules only applicable to 1 of 10 cars.

 

[Toshi]

 

[Westy]

I am filled with hate, it is just stagnant at this point.

 

[StiHacka]

Washington has some of the slowest and most indecisive drivers around.

Worse than NH and PA.

 

[Toshi]

I've seen this meme on facebook from supposedly educated friends. It's wrong.

The numbers quoted are for salaries, not pensions. Pension calcluation is not a simple thing to sum up, but this does the best:

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/01/congressional-pensions-update/

According to the Congressional Research Service, as of Oct. 1, 2013, there were 367 former members of Congress who had retired under the Civil Service Retirement System, the old system that was criticized for being too generous. Those members were receiving an average annual pension of $71,664. The pensions of the 250 former members who retired under the Federal Employees Retirement System, which began in 1987, average even less. Their average pension was $42,048 in 2013, CRS said.

 

[SkaredShtles]

A meme that doesn't report factual information?

Color me SHOCKED.

 

[Toshi]

A meme that doesn't report factual information?

Color me SHOCKED.

This was from the same retired dentist friend that posted that free energy discovered by 12 year old crap. I think you commented on that, too. Or maybe it wasn't him. Can't remember/don't care enough to check.

 

[SkaredShtles]

This was from the same retired dentist friend that posted that free energy discovered by 12 year old crap. I think you commented on that, too. Or maybe it wasn't him. Can't remember/don't care enough to check.

It's like most people at some point abandon all sense and reason... WTF, people? Just quit being such obvious fucktards.

 

[Toshi]

So peanut gallery: should I order a Chinese gimbal and try my luck with that?

https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B018SC65PA?ref_=pe_623860_70668520&sa-no-redirect=1

Unless REI carries the Karma Grip I'm not buying that particular flavor of shit again.

 

[Toshi]

The Trump Tax Plan's effect on the mortgage interest deduction

The National Association of Realtors mentions in a PR-type article [1] that the increased standard deduction would basically nullify the benefit of the mortgage interest deduction. I agree with them.

Here's why this is true, in a nutshell:

1) The deduction as it sits is really a choice to take the standard deduction or to itemize and take individual deductions including that of mortgage interest.

2) Therefore increasing the standard deduction will result in many if not most people being better off with it, effectively nullifying the mortgage interest deduction.

In a little more depth, let's look at a household with a $120k mortgage and another household with a $1M mortgage (the max amount of principal that's deductible).

Scenario 1: $120k mortgage

Per BankRate's calculator [2] the most interest they'd pay on a 15 year 4% mortgage would be $4,691.52. There's almost no way that they'd itemize more than $45k in other deductions, therefore the standard deduction wins bigly in this scenario, which is applicable to most of America per these stats assuming two income households of median-ish wage earners [3].

Scenario 2: $1M mortgage

In this setting the lucky debtor would pay $39,096.01 in the most expensive first year of their 15 year 4% mortgage [4]. Could one have enough other deductions to make it worthwhile to itemize? Sure--some charity and some depreciation would do it. But the marginal benefit of the mortgage interest deduction is how much more one would get from it than the standard deduction, and that marginal benefit would be pretty small indeed.

The effective rate of one's mortgage would likely be equivalent to the nominal rate or perhaps 10% lower now. The conventional wisdom (not so true in reality for those with small mortgages and low marginal rates) is that the effective rate is the nominal rate * (1 - [marginal income tax rate]), so this would be quite a change as the NAR says.

[1] http://www.inman.com/2017/04/26/is-trumps-tax-plan-good-for-homeowners-nope-says-nar/
[2] http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator-summary?homePrice=120000&percentAmount=0&loanAmount=120000&perc=0.00&terms=180&years=15.000&interestRate=4.00&loanStartDate=April 26 2017&monthlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyPaymentMonth= April &oneTimeAdditionalPayment=0&oneTimeAdditionalPaymentInMY= May 2017&ic_id=mtg_calc_v2_summary_btn
[3] https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/23/heres-the-average-americans-mortgage-payment-by-ag.aspx
[4] http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator-summary?homePrice=1000000&percentAmount=0&loanAmount=1000000&perc=0.00&terms=180&years=15.000&interestRate=4.00&loanStartDate=April 26 2017&monthlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyPaymentMonth= April &oneTimeAdditionalPayment=0&oneTimeAdditionalPaymentInMY= May 2017&ic_id=mtg_calc_v2_summary_btn

 

[StiHacka]

The Trump Tax Plan's effect on the mortgage interest deduction

The National Association of Realtors mentions in a PR-type article [1] that the increased standard deduction would basically nullify the benefit of the mortgage interest deduction. I agree with them.

Here's why this is true, in a nutshell:

1) The deduction as it sits is really a choice to take the standard deduction or to itemize and take individual deductions including that of mortgage interest.

2) Therefore increasing the standard deduction will result in many if not most people being better off with it, effectively nullifying the mortgage interest deduction.

In a little more depth, let's look at a household with a $120k mortgage and another household with a $1M mortgage (the max amount of principal that's deductible).

Scenario 1: $120k mortgage

Per BankRate's calculator [2] the most interest they'd pay on a 15 year 4% mortgage would be $4,691.52. There's almost no way that they'd itemize more than $45k in other deductions, therefore the standard deduction wins bigly in this scenario, which is applicable to most of America per these stats assuming two income households of median-ish wage earners [3].

Scenario 2: $1M mortgage

In this setting the lucky debtor would pay $39,096.01 in the most expensive first year of their 15 year 4% mortgage [4]. Could one have enough other deductions to make it worthwhile to itemize? Sure--some charity and some depreciation would do it. But the marginal benefit of the mortgage interest deduction is how much more one would get from it than the standard deduction, and that marginal benefit would be pretty small indeed.

The effective rate of one's mortgage would likely be equivalent to the nominal rate or perhaps 10% lower now. The conventional wisdom (not so true in reality for those with small mortgages and low marginal rates) is that the effective rate is the nominal rate * (1 - [marginal income tax rate]), so this would be quite a change as the NAR says.

[1] http://www.inman.com/2017/04/26/is-trumps-tax-plan-good-for-homeowners-nope-says-nar/
[2] http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator-summary?homePrice=120000&percentAmount=0&loanAmount=120000&perc=0.00&terms=180&years=15.000&interestRate=4.00&loanStartDate=April 26 2017&monthlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyPaymentMonth= April &oneTimeAdditionalPayment=0&oneTimeAdditionalPaymentInMY= May 2017&ic_id=mtg_calc_v2_summary_btn
[3] https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/23/heres-the-average-americans-mortgage-payment-by-ag.aspx
[4] http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator-summary?homePrice=1000000&percentAmount=0&loanAmount=1000000&perc=0.00&terms=180&years=15.000&interestRate=4.00&loanStartDate=April 26 2017&monthlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyAdditionalAmount=0&yearlyPaymentMonth= April &oneTimeAdditionalPayment=0&oneTimeAdditionalPaymentInMY= May 2017&ic_id=mtg_calc_v2_summary_btn

This will likely hurt many middle class families in expensive real estate markets with high property taxes (coasts, major metro areas) while leaving more money in the pockets of people who don't have or need big mortgages, no? I will be paying more taxes and it is likely that the home values in my hood will go down as a result, too. I see neighborhoods of rentals and diminishing home ownership in our future.

 

[Toshi]

The deduction changes won't help those with big mortgages. The marginal rate drop would, though, possibly offset by decreases in or elimination of other deductions.

For Joe Sixpack this would actually help in absolute terms but would negate any "advantage" to having a mortgage. Thus the outrage from the real estate wing.

 

[StiHacka]

The deduction changes won't help those with big mortgages. The marginal rate drop would, though, possibly offset by decreases in or elimination of other deductions.

Right. I think we're saying the same thing.

 

[Nick]

I'm reading $2.5T to as much as $3.9T (that's trillion) in lost tax revenue over ten years.