[Westy]

1) 40 x 14t is kind of annoying to be in all the time. There's a woman with a custom road frame with a single speed belt drive setup who works on the same campus as me (maybe at Children's Hospital? not sure), and she seemed to have a much shorter gear than I'd expect and just made up with it in cadence.

90 rpm works out to 21.3 mph for 40 x 14t, 19.9 mph for 15t, 18.6 mph for 16t, 17.6 mph for 17t. I should probably go with a 40 x 15t equivalent, or maybe splitting the difference between 15 and 16t if that's possible with the belt. Edit: 40/16 is 2.5, and I could get 2.5 with 55/22, 118 tooth belt, 433 mm chainstay.

2) Also related to this belt drive business is that my current 1x10 drivetrain is driving me nuts. I have a clicking type noise with every crank rotation. Same place in the rotation. Doesn't occur with no chain so not the BB, crank-BB interface, or pedals. As far as I can tell I have simply worn down my Race Face narrow-wide ring. I bought it 11 months ago and have about 1200 miles on the commuter since then per Strava, so perhaps that's its lifespan in these conditions.

Chainless doesn't mean that it still isn't your BB. Pedaling with a chain the BB has to react to offset forces from your weight left to right in addition to chain tension. That force vector changes directions as you pedal and the creak can be caused by that, Chainless the BB reacts only to your weight and for the most part laterally balanced.

 

[Toshi]

Good point. I guess I'll find out if this is the case when I reuse the Alfine crankset + BB on the new frame.

 

[Toshi]

Just did it: Pulled the trigger and ordered the following:

Soma Wolverine frame, 50 cm, black since that orange was pretty obnoxious
Soma Wolverine thru-axle fork, black
Gates CDX 55/22t belt drive setup with red 118t belt and a Surly spacer kit for my freehub
Chris King headset, silver
Thomson seatpost, seat collar, and stem, silver
Salsa Cowbell 2 handlebars, 44 cm width, and some bar tape in case I can't reuse the tape from my commuter's swept bars
Planet Bike aluminum fenders, silver/unfinished

I haz excite.

As one might infer from this incomplete parts list I'm going to repurpose the following parts from my current commuter bike: wheelset (DT Swiss 350/XR 331), tires (47 mm Schwalbe Marathon Plus), seat, rack, crankset (Alfine single ring/sprocket), lights, and possibly brake calipers. Those brake calipers are XT, which are compatible in theory with Shimano RS685 levers, so I'm trying to hunt down a cheap set of levers alone on eBay. They'll have STI shifters associated with them that will go unused.

(For those of you looking to purchase bike parts note that Universal Cycles has a 15% off $300 or greater deal through Oct 8. I price matched the frame through Universal's easy to use system since it was exempt from the 15% off coupon, but for all other items the generic 15% coupon was greater than price matching other sites. Be careful and don't pricematch above the 15% off price!)

 

[6thElement]

(For those of you looking to purchase bike parts note that Universal Cycles has a 15% off $300 or greater deal through Oct 8. I price matched the frame through Universal's easy to use system since it was exempt from the 15% off coupon, but for all other items the generic 15% coupon was greater than price matching other sites. Be careful and don't pricematch above the 15% off price!)

Universal always has 15% off over $300, it always used to be VIP15 but they've started changing it monthly.

They're my go to online store.

 

[Toshi]

Universal always has 15% off over $300, it always used to be VIP15 but they've started changing it monthly.

They're my go to online store.

I favor them, too. This is especially true since the main credit card I use, a Chase Freedom, lets one price match to online ads 0-90 days after purchase. This way I can order everything from Universal to get it at one time in one box and then pricematch to random, sketchy Niagra Cycle Works via Amazon non-Prime prices and the like. (Or even sketchier outfits that I find through Google Shopping that I'd never actually entrust with my cc #.)

Bonus unethical bit is that Universal's receipt format is such that their 15% off and pricematch coupons are taken off as a line item at the bottom of the receipt, as opposed to associated with each item. Therefore I can pricematch to the pre-discount price. I figure this is ok morally because the price matching 3rd party outfit used, Eclaimsline, has cock-blocked me on a few requests that should have been granted, for bike and RC car parts that they thought were (rightfully excluded) automobile parts.

 

[Toshi]

The XL Outdoor Research skiing outfit I ordered has proven unfortunately to be no match for my fatness. Rough measurements from a not very flexible tape measure, for future sizing consideration:

53" at shoulders
47" chest
43" waist
46" hips

At least I'm not shaped like a pear, I suppose. Instead I'm shaped like a tree trunk that's slightly broader at the top.

 

[Toshi]

From perusing Outdoor Research's size chart XXL should be much more my style. The pretty blue XL kit will go back to REI.

I went with an uninsulated shell and uninsulated pants for the XXL redo as opposed to the shell-with-Polartec-Alpha-insulation setup I squeezed myself into today, with the idea that a breathable waterproof shell might come in handy on my bike commute. Unfortunately, for the Skyward series that fits this bill XXL limits one to just black as the color choice. Not ideal for riding home at night, but I have reflective patches on my panniers, a rear reflector/light combo on my rack, reflectors on my pedals and tire beads, plus 3000 lumens of light pointed forward.

Related: 10/5-10/9 25% off sale at Outdoor Research's site. :notbadobama:



Edit: Outdoor Research Alpenice XL was too snug. Outdoor Research Skyward XXL is far too loose, on the other hand. Why must sizing be so inconsistent?! I'm going to try on things in person at REI, probably getting a lightweight and colorful shell primarily for biking, and dedicated ski pants ideally also not black.

 

[Toshi]

So after I build up this Soma Wolverine I'll be left with some extra parts. Unlike Nick, I don't plan on hoarding them in my garage. What should I do with them? Are there any bike-related charities locally that would use such a random collection (not a whole bike)?

What'll be left over:

- Jamis Durango 29er frameset, complete with crappy fork, headset, seat collar, seat post
- M785 XT brake levers and one sloppy old M785 10 speed rear i-Spec shifter that likes to rock in its i-Spec mount
- 1800? mile old Ultegra 12-25 10-speed cassette
- 2500? mile old XT 10 speed clutch derailleur
- 40t RaceFace narrow-wide ring that I presume is the source of the drivetrain's clicking noise
- funky swept handlebar

I guess I should keep the bar and the brake levers at least, in case drop bar life doesn't agree with me. Those parts are small. Still there'll be some random crap, namely that frameset. It's not worth eBaying, I don't want to pay to ship it anywhere, and due to Craigslist taking a fair bit of time and effort I'm almost tempted to take a hacksaw to it until it fits in my garbage dumpster. That exercise would be satisfying, too...

 

[Toshi]

[The] brake calipers [that I'm pulling from my current commuter] are XT, which are compatible in theory with Shimano RS685 levers, so I'm trying to hunt down a cheap set of levers alone on eBay. They'll have STI shifters associated with them that will go unused.

Hunting down Shimano road disc brake levers on eBay has proved to be more difficult than I thought. Most all auctions are for levers + calipers and end up being pretty pricey indeed. Ones that should work are ST-RS405 (Tiagra level), ST-RS505 (105 level), ST-RS685 (Ultegra level), and ST-R785 (Ultegra Di2 level).

Integrated STI shifters make for some expensive combo brake/shifters!

I have an offer in for $150 + 15ish shipping for the 105 level levers. The seller should respond tomorrow. Worst case it seems that Nashbar, of all places, has the ST-RS505 new for $200 with free shipping. Oddly that's much cheaper than even the Tiagra level bits--not sure if listing in error, secretly for just one lever, or what.

Dig the speed-holes. Also note lack of extraneous STI shifting bits--single speed setup.

I'd go with an alternate product such as the TRP Hylex RS as above, but oddly only their flat-mount model can be found cheap. The post-mount model is $105 x 2 for a complete setup, and I'd trust the performance of a Shimano setup over TRP, let alone the scenario where Shimano is cheaper (because of my existing calipers and the Nashbar price weirdness).


Edit: eBay seller counter-offer was $185 + shipping. Uh, no, not when the alternative is $200 with free shipping for a new set. I guess I'll find out upon arrival if the Nashbar listing was for one lever or two: it says "levers" and doesn't specify front or rear so I have my hopes still.

Edit 2: Nashbar order placed... but the order status ominously has the product listed as "Item Not Currently Available". Looks like I'll be rocking the swept bars for a while yet until I get this sorted. Just as well as it'll let me sort out the rest of the bike without messing with the bars yet, although it'll probably make the 90 mm Thomson stem I ordered effectively too long...

Edit 3: Chatted with Nashbar on Sunday. Dude said I snagged the last set in their stock, and that it should ship tomorrow or Tuesday. If that's true it'll get here around the same time as the rest of the parts.

 

[Toshi]

Doctors Can’t Spend More Than Half Their Income <-- clicky clicky

A good read for anyone in the 25% and up marginal rate world.

How much of my gross income can I spend each year and expect to be able to sustain my standard of living throughout my life?

It turns out the answer to that, at least as a general rule of thumb for a high income professional, is “about half.” Why is that you ask? Because the other half has to go to taxes and savings.

There's some math and more explanation in there, but the key bit is this formula, which is not rocket science but bears repeating:

Annual income during retirement can be derived by putting this formula into Excel or Google Sheets:

=FV(5%,X,-Y) * 0.04

where X is age of retirement minus when you started saving at your sustained rate, and Y (note the minus) is the current dollar amount per year that you put toward retirement. The 0.04 is for a 4% safe withdrawal rate per the Trinity Study. This assumes sustained real 5% gains. It also ignores inflation but similarly ignores income growth and higher future tax-deferred limits that should track that in theory.

Play around with this formula a bit and you can see the effect of retiring at a given age, +5, +10, etc. or changing one's contributions.

For my level of savings (high) combined with age at which I could start contributing in earnest (late) doing this exercise was very useful in that it suggests that me working until at least age 55 is probably in order. If I can expect $N/year if I retire at 50 I could get 1.49 * N at 55 or 2.12 * N if I hang on until 60.

 

[Toshi]

For my level of savings (high) combined with age at which I could start contributing in earnest (late) doing this exercise was very useful in that it suggests that me working until at least age 55 is probably in order. If I can expect $N/year if I retire at 50 I could get 1.49 * N at 55 or 2.12 * N if I hang on until 60.

More messing around with this:

Full time to 50 then out: 1.00 * N
Full time to 55 then out: 1.49 * N
Full time to 60 then out: 2.12 * N

Full time to 50, half time to 55: 1.08 * N
Full time to 50, half time to 60: 1.21 * N
Full time to 55, half time to 60: 1.57 * N

This assumes at half time I could save half as much as I do now. In reality I'll be able to save more, as student loans will be long gone, car notes gone unless I have recurrent new car fever, 529 contributions done, and the mortgage paid down or close to done by then. Oh, and significantly less taxes relative to gross income thanks to the magic of our progressive tax system and because I'll be able to do catch up/extra tax deferred contributions.

When I near age 50 I'll definitely be hitting the books to see what works financially! Another consideration is that my oldest kid will be entering college right around then so minimizing income for financial aid purposes is another albeit secondary goal.

 

[Toshi]

All the parts for the new belt drive commuter arrived yesterday. Instead of riding today I cleaned the garage and worked on bikes. I pulled the old commuter apart (and sold its frameset on the local swap page for $5--better than hacksawing it and putting it in the trash, I figure). In doing so I tried to pull the cassette off the rear wheel's freehub body so that I could play around with the spacer kit and belt drive cog and approximate a good "belt line", as it were. The cassette's lockring came off fine with a chainwhip. So did the first few free cogs.

The main body of the cassette wouldn't budge, though, and this is why:

I dropped various bits of the in-progress new build at the LBS, figuring that if I'm going to need their help anyway might as well have them do some other tasks for me that I could have done on my own but would rather avoid. I'm having them:

- press in headset and headset race (instead of using my ghetto threaded rod + washers + giant nuts setup that I threw out today)
- mount front brake on fork after obtaining the correct adapter from them (prior fork was post mount, current fork is IS)
- mount stem after cutting fork's steerer tube to length
- mount my fancy new road 105-level hydraulic levers on the bars (Nashbar having indeed sold and faithfully shipped a full right + left lever set for $200), hook up my XT calipers to 'em and bleed them, and do the bar tape up nice and pretty since I find bar tape a pain in the ass personally
- pull the cassette and freehub self-welded assembly as per the above photo, and replace it with a steel freehub, installing a 54t star ratchet upgrade while they're in there anyway

So it'll be a few days without a commuter bike for me as they source the adapter, freehub, and star ratchet upgrade kit and then perform the labor. Being without the bike this week is just as well, since I probably would have driven Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and possibly Wednesday anyway this week due to vagaries of site assignments and extra early morning this and that.

 

[Toshi]

Dealer says ship date for the minivan is 9/5. I don't believe that but perhaps I'll see it this month!

This was on 9/2. It ended up arriving in Colorado Springs today, 10/18. September, October... close enough, I guess?

Edit: Picking it up tomorrow, 10/21! Perfect timing: Uploaded the buyer's order to my credit union on 10/18. Called them 10/19, finalized the loan, and they FedExed the check that arrived today, 10/20. Tomorrow morning I hop on a bus down to Colorado Springs and hopefully don't have to deal with too much dealer bullshit.

 

[Toshi]

Cross-posted from the daily thread:

I rode it to/from work today. I like it. It turned out much as I had hoped. Sizing seems pretty good, which was a bit of a concern since I bought that Thomson without sizing out the frame first. The belt drive is as silent as I had hoped, and there's no clicking, so I guess the issue was somewhere in the chain and worn out narrow-wide ring rather than the cranks or BB. Most of the time the only noise the bike makes is a little "ting" when a rock gets tossed against the metal fenders.

One quirk is that the first mile or so on the bike felt funny until I adjusted to the geometry and the feel of drop bars. I think this fork has a lot of trail? The front end didn't feel as lively at first as I'd have expected for cyclocross-ish geometry and I was waggling a bit with every pedal stroke.

I did confirm that I can still bunnyhop up a curb easily. I'm not sure if I could bunnyhop a legit cyclocross barrier, especially in its fully dressed form, but being able to do curb height is important to me since there are two places on my usual route where that saves me from having to slow down, not that speed is everything when I'm on a single speed, after all...

 

[Toshi]

Picked up this before performing in a concert tonight. (Ordered 8/9 but didn’t arrive at the dealer until this past Wednesday.) Super busy last two weeks but everything seemed to work out ok.

Thoughts:

- drives like a big Prius, which is a positive thing coming from me
- full speed adaptive cruise control is amazing. I don’t think I’ll ever get another car without it
- Uconnect is customizable such that I have most things (e.g. seat heaters) accessible with one click from the bottom row
- the paint actually looks really nice in different light
- although it has a (not super useful) surround view camera it is a pain to park in the garage due to its size, so we will pull it in forward and just scoot the RAV4 EV as far over as possible to give it room
- getting it in service at the end of this tax year will be nice: $12.5k in tax credits shall be coming my way!


Between this and the commuter bike I’m getting pretty good at enacting my often hare-brained plans...

 

[Toshi]

I just sold the Land Cruiser. Easiest transaction ever: sold it to my former two doors down neighbor. He found out I was selling after I went mountain biking with my former one door down neighbors. We emailed, I suggested a price, he agreed it was fair, then when I was ready to sell he Ubered over, drove it, signed the title and bill of sale, and wrote me a check.

On my part, I was absolutely honest in my disclosures about the vehicle, and I had ample service records. Plus he already knew it was in great condition from having seen it in the flesh back when we lived nearby.

 

[Adventurous]

I just sold the Land Cruiser. Easiest transaction ever: sold it to my former two doors down neighbor. He found out I was selling after I went mountain biking with my former one door down neighbors. We emailed, I suggested a price, he agreed it was fair, then when I was ready to sell he Ubered over, drove it, signed the title and bill of sale, and wrote me a check.

On my part, I was absolutely honest in my disclosures about the vehicle, and I had ample service records. Plus he already knew it was in great condition from having seen it in the flesh back when we lived nearby.

So you guys have what, a Leaf now and the Chrysler? Shame to see the Landcruiser go.

 

[Nick]

So you guys have what, a Leaf now and the Chrysler? Shame to see the Landcruiser go.

I think he's rocking some manner of recumbent e-trike these days too.

 

[Adventurous]

I think he's rocking some manner of recumbent e-trike these days too.

No carbon recumbent fat 29er e-trike no care!

 

[Toshi]

So you guys have what, a Leaf now and the Chrysler? Shame to see the Landcruiser go.

I think he's rocking some manner of recumbent e-trike these days too.

LEAF was a car or two ago. Current rides:

Wife:
- PHEV minivan
- Electric-assist kid-hauling trike

Me:
- 5010
- Single speed belt drive monstercross bike
- Electric RAV4

 

[Toshi]

The new belt-drive bike has been giving me a minor fit with front brake performance and occasional pad rubbing.

Well, upon further inspection tonight it looks like the bike shop sold me the wrong IS to post mount adapter. I had turned it around during assembly as initially it looked fit for about an 180 mm rotor, and as I mounted it it's still good for about 170 mm. My 160 mm rotors are apparently only contacted by the lower half of the pad, and I'd worn a nice groove halfway through said paid as a result.

Whoops. Time to get new pads and a correct adapter from the LBS tomorrow.

 

[Toshi]

A reminder to everyone to cross-shop insurance rates every once in a while. I've been with GEICO for quite a few years, but with this new car in the garage they're actually not competitive. Progressive beat them by a bit but Esurance just whipped them.

My current GEICO auto + homeowners policy is just under $4k in annual premiums. The umbrella policy I also have with them is just under $200, iirc.

Esurance auto + homeowners is quoted as just under $2.6k! (and that's not including the multi-policy discount not in play since the quoting tools are separate, apparently). As long as their umbrella policy is within reason and maybe even if not I'm going to switch to them. Annoyingly one must call a M-F phone number to get an umbrella quote. $1,400 per year isn't chump change...

 

[Westy]

A reminder to everyone to cross-shop insurance rates every once in a while. I've been with GEICO for quite a few years, but with this new car in the garage they're actually not competitive. Progressive beat them by a bit but Esurance just whipped them.

My current GEICO auto + homeowners policy is just under $4k in annual premiums. The umbrella policy I also have with them is just under $200, iirc.

Esurance auto + homeowners is quoted as just under $2.6k! (and that's not including the multi-policy discount not in play since the quoting tools are separate, apparently). As long as their umbrella policy is within reason and maybe even if not I'm going to switch to them. Annoyingly one must call a M-F phone number to get an umbrella quote. $1,400 per year isn't chump change...

Recently switched to Esurance after my Allstate agent pissed me off real good moving into the new house. When I bought the policy I was told I had to fix a railing issue on my back porch in a year. 4 weeks into the policy I got a cancellation notice because I hadn't fixed the railing. Bitched at the agent, was told it was a clerical error and I had a year to fix it. Got a second cancellation notice two weeks later.

Esurance's regular coverage a similar price but their earthquake coverage was much cheaper so I picked that up. 30% odds of a >9.0 quake within the next 50 years in the PNW. 12% of Seattle sits in liquifaction zones that will swallow up even the sturdiest buildings. I live on the top of a glacial moraine so liquifaction isn't a problem but this ground is going to move around a fair bit.

 

[Toshi]

Do driver's ed courses not teach one to remove disabled vehicles from the road any more?

This morning there was a traffic snarl-up on a major arterial. In their infinite wisdom the traffic crews decided to do work taking 3 traffic lanes down to 2 then 1 a block later right during the morning commute... and some unfortunate distraught young woman in a not-older-than-3-years Grand Cherokee was stuck dead in the water in the left-hand traffic lane, right at the first 3 to 2 pinch point.

No one was stopping to help her or get her out of the way, instead blindly trying to make their way around the stone stuck in the stream and get to their own workplaces.

No one cares if I walk in a few minutes late if I'm not on a procedural service (and ultrasound as I'm on today isn't such a service) so I pulled over between the traffic cones at the 3 to 2 merge, walked back through the stopped cars, then singlehandedly pushed her Grand Cherokee over to the protected area behind my vehicle. (I'm glad it was a flat section of road!) She was initially stuck in park with her rotating-dial shifter but got it into neutral.

I sure hope my wife experiences better reliability than with this young woman's late model FCA product...

 

[Toshi]

One of the leaked "pay for billionaire tax cut" proposals was to drastically reduce tax-deferred contribution limits, perhaps to $2,400 annually (as opposed to $18k for those under 50 and $24k for those in the catch-up period).

Some Republican shills wrote a column supporting this, of course: Republicans want to slash tax deductions for your 401(k). That's actually a good idea!

Key quote:

“The Roth fund is worth more because every single dollar in the account can be withdrawn tax-free,” John Beshears of Harvard, the co-author of a 2015 study of contribution habits, told the Wall Street Journal in an interview earlier this year.

The example he gave was of a worker saving $5,000 a year in a 401(k) for 40 years, earning an average annual return of 5%. That would produce a final balance of more than $600,000. “If the 401(k) is a Roth, the full balance is available for retirement spending.” If it’s a traditional 401(k) and the owner’s tax rate in retirement is 20%, “that makes for a difference of $120,000 in spending power, which a life annuity will translate into about $700 a month in extra spending.”

That math seemed very suspect to me so I did my own calculations, which you can play with here if you're bored:

My best guess is that he's comparing $5k pre-tax contributions to a tax-deferred account to $5k post-tax contributions to a Roth. This is not apples to apples, as one must earn $5k * (1 + marginal rate) to get $5k post-tax...

Dishonest pieces of **** is my assessment.

Looking at my Excel chart I realized I counted taxable withdrawals as income, whereas they'd actually be at the (lower) LTCG rate. Makes the math even more lopsided unless I missed something big...

 

[Westy]

One of the leaked "pay for billionaire tax cut" proposals was to drastically reduce tax-deferred contribution limits, perhaps to $2,400 annually (as opposed to $18k for those under 50 and $24k for those in the catch-up period).

Some Republican shills wrote a column supporting this, of course: Republicans want to slash tax deductions for your 401(k). That's actually a good idea!

Key quote:



That math seemed very suspect to me so I did my own calculations, which you can play with here if you're bored:

My best guess is that he's comparing $5k pre-tax contributions to a tax-deferred account to $5k post-tax contributions to a Roth. This is not apples to apples, as one must earn $5k * (1 + marginal rate) to get $5k post-tax...

Dishonest pieces of **** is my assessment.

Looking at my Excel chart I realized I counted taxable withdrawals as income, whereas they'd actually be at the (lower) LTCG rate. Makes the math even more lopsided unless I missed something big...

This is clearly an attempt to pad the accounts of the donor class while assuming the republican base is too stupid to realize they are getting conned. Sadly, they are probably correct.

 

[Toshi]

I installed a security update on my Hackintosh. Usually this breaks audio--restart after unplugging (because hardware USB bug, gah), redo the MultiBeast setup, move on.

Well, this time it broke the video card support. I was just about to call it and just order a MacBook Pro and be done with the Hackintosh once and forever, but then TeamViewer on my laptop (next to the broken Hackintosh since I brought it in for other reasons) notified me that Hackintosh had signed in.

Long and short of it is that even though the video output on the Hackintosh's physical screens was garbage logging into it via TeamViewer looked totally normal. I was able to do the MultiBeast reinstall via TeamViewer and now the Hackintosh is back up and running: with security update, with audio, with video. So it shall live to complicate my life yet another day...

(I built it in 2010 and updated it in maybe 2012? So I've certainly wrung a fair bit of use out of the Hackintosh. At that point it was probably worth it, but now it is living on borrowed time. When my office gets moved to the new glass-everything open office setup in another building I may well switch to a MacBook Pro + giant single monitor instead of noisy Hackintosh + two 24" 1920 x 1200 monitor setup that I have now.)

 

[SkaredShtles]

I installed a security update on my Hackintosh. Usually this breaks audio--restart after unplugging (because hardware USB bug, gah), redo the MultiBeast setup, move on.

 

[Toshi]

Hackintosh == PC hardware with 3rd party kludges to make OS X think that it's Apple hardware. These kludges get overwritten with every software update. Usually it's just audio that breaks--I restart, reinstall the hacked drivers via a package called MultiBeast, and it works.

(The hardware USB thing: apparently the USB chip on my motherboard doesn't get properly reset during a soft restart. Soft restarts result in no USB, thus no utility. I have to unplug the power supply, wait a few seconds, then start anew, at which point the USB chip pops back into action and works.)

If it sounds like a pain in the ass it's because it's a pain in the ass. I've probably logged a solid work week's worth of time troubleshooting and fixing it since 2010, which only made sense at my old hourly rate, if you will.

 

[Toshi]

Sure seems to me like this Denver Health ambulance driver was driving recklessly, thus the YouTube video's title. For context he was responding to a call for what appeared from the outside to be a minor motor vehicle collision a few blocks behind where this video occurred.

Update: Apparently more serious wreck than it appeared. Still not a reason to be threading the needle at speed on the way there, IMO, risking additional life and limb.

 

[Toshi]

Latest product of my fevered brain:

Uses these brackets and rates for the proposed plan: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/here-are-the-new-tax-brackets-in-the-gop-plan.html

Note that the true effect may be slightly different because this plan also has AMT going away.

It is pretty clear that in this interest rate climate taking the standard deduction will be tough to beat unless one has $500-600k of house (also noting that one of the provisions in the tax bill is limiting deductibility of mortgage interest to the first $500k of principal, down from $1M now)...

 

[Westy]

Latest product of my fevered brain:

Uses these brackets and rates for the proposed plan: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/here-are-the-new-tax-brackets-in-the-gop-plan.html

Note that the true effect may be slightly different because this plan also has AMT going away.

It is pretty clear that in this interest rate climate taking the standard deduction will be tough to beat unless one has $500-600k of house (also noting that one of the provisions in the tax bill is limiting deductibility of mortgage interest to the first $500k of principal, down from $1M now)...

Being single with a Seattle home, I will still be itemizing. Luckily I will have the same deductions in the future that I have now. It will be nice to see a slightly lower tax bill, but we are being thrown scraps so that we don't see corporations being fed filet mignon.

The one thing that makes me nervous is how this will effect the local housing market. Having recently purchased I fear a big pop in the market. With the average home price being well above $500k some people will be hurt by the reduction in mortgage deductions. However, the average down payment in my neighborhood is a ridiculous 50%, so under current conditions it will have little impact.

 

[Toshi]

Since I do such things (and I've wanted to do this since selling the Land Cruiser), I spent some time on my birthday delving into Mint to figure out how much my period of Land Cruiser ownership actually cost me.

Overall costs* from March 2014-October 2017: $20,111. That's $5,613/year, which is lower than AAA's averages for new vehicles as one might expect since I bought it used, or $468/month. It's sobering to see what vehicle ownership actually costs, even for a low mileage driver.

* == realized depreciation + TTL on the original purchase including finance charges (38%)
+ maintenance (28%)
+ fuel (19%)
+ detailing/dent removal/car washes (11%)
+ estimated proportion of insurance from collision/comprehensive (4%).

Note that this includes two new sets of tires, a used extra set of OEM takeoff wheels, $2,267 in optional dent/scratch removal and car washes (which I could have avoided for the vast majority had I not off-roaded), a totally elective fix for a telescopic steering column motor that went caput, and some fuel for rental cars on business trips that I didn't categorize separately. On the other hand, it doesn't include an O2 sensor replacement that I remember but didn't seem to have categorized correctly in Mint. Overall it's close enough to be a useful estimate, though.

 

[Toshi]

Technology is sometimes a pain in the ass. I had to reset my Windows 10 gaming PC tonight due to video driver issues. (Resetting is Microsoft parlance for an OS reinstall from a recovery partition while retaining documents but not settings or apps.) Now I'm reinstalling this or that to get it functional once more.

On the topic of computers, I should spend some time tomorrow looking over Apple's MacBook Pro lineup. I have a fancy monitor picked out for my new office, and if I had a nice Mac to play with there (that wouldn't break like my now-aging Hackintosh) I might actually want to spend time there on my academic days... I'm going to petition to get all of the faculty set up with this new monitor in their new offices.

I think having all that screen estate available would actually enhance peoples' writing productivity, with room for multiple windows up at once. This basement computer has a big display, 80", but as it's a 4K TV its aspect ratio and viewing distance doesn't lend itself to working on papers. I like to have a web browser open for references, EndNote, Word, and maybe an earlier draft up simultaneously.

Edit: That 34" widescreen isn't high ppi/Retina. I think I'll personally go for two 4K 27"s and advocate for at least a 4K 27" for people who don't care as much as I do.

 

[Toshi]

Big REI sale Nov 10-20. Use code GEARUP20 as well.

I just placed a substantial order:

- Arc'teryx Beta SL jacket for me
- Patagonia Nano Puff jackets for me and the wife
- Patagonia Better Sweater pullover for wife (I already have one through work, oddly)
- Ortlieb high viz Back-Roller panniers (I have non-hi-viz smaller, "City" sized panniers now that won't fit a new laptop)
- random other detritus: long underwear, bras, rain boots for the wife, two more bib shorts for me, shoe covers for my biking shoes

 

[Westy]

- Patagonia Nano Puff jackets for me and the wife

So cute. Matching sorority girl costumes. Just need Uggs.

 

[Toshi]

Experiencing low state of charge is much less stressful in a PHEV than in a BEV, I must say.

The 134 mile gas range complementing the 1 mile remaining of EV range is from having just under half a tank in there. That’s half of the original tank from the dealer, 800+ miles ago! because it’s a PHEV and most of our trips use very little if any gas even with the engine kicking on for heating this and that in the cold.

 

[Toshi]

Relative value of car features, informed by life with the new PacHy:

1) As much autonomous operation as possible.

My next vehicle (planned ~2020 at the moment after I kill off our student loans) will have at the minimum current-gen-Tesla Autopilot/Nissan ProPilot level driver assist, which is SAE level 2 autonomy, I believe.

On the PacHy the full-speed adaptive cruise control works great but the lane keep assist is pretty weak sauce, and it's annoying that the radar-based cruise can't sense red lights/stop signs (minor) or far off traffic that's already completely stopped (major annoyance).

Autonomous features for me is the biggest thing on my list by far. Its absence would be a deal-breaker for a new vehicle purchase.

2) The luxury of not getting gas.

Assuming there's an acceptable option in terms of its other aspects (price, packaging/body style, etc.) I don't see myself buying a conventional gasoline/diesel powered vehicle again.

EV mode operation is smoother than any regular powertrain I've experienced, and it's really nice to be able to charge up in the garage and avoid the gas station entirely. Having at least one vehicle with either quick charging (like Tesla's Supercharger) or that is a PHEV is necessary, though.

For me this is not as important as autonomy, and I'd pick a gas vehicle with level 4 autonomy (Audi?) over a 2020 Tesla if it still only has level 2 capabilities. I don't think I'll have to compromise on this one, though, given the way things are headed.

3) More physical luxury.

Heated steering wheels and vented seats are nice, but ultimately are less important than autonomy or electric-ness to me. Similarly nice are power doors, especially those that are kick-activated like in the minivan. I'll certainly check the box for these things if it's an option, but this is far from a deal-killer to me.

4) Electronic device integration.

CarPlay is similarly a bit nicer than OEM infotainment interfaces but has been relatively underwhelming. USB music device support is a given these days and I certainly won't go back to before those days, but if CarPlay isn't on a future vehicle option I won't shed a tear about it. Meh.

Things that are not important to me:

1) Outright speed or handling within reason, as with the Land Cruiser on 33"s I did realize that my tolerance does have limits.
2) Badge, except in that which is implied by the badge for predicted reliability.
3) Image. I don't mind the huge greenhouse of the Chevy Bolt, for instance, and happily tool around in the minivan now.

 

[Toshi]

My next vehicle (planned ~2020 at the moment after I kill off our student loans)

This timing will be affected by a few things:

1) Colorado's alt-fuel (including EV) tax credit is $5k from 2017-2019, which is great except that it was $6k prior to 2017. Anyway, it goes down to $4k in 2020, $2.5k in 2021, then goes away on Jan 1, 2022.

2) Current Federal tax code has the $7.5k EV/PHEV-of-at-least-16-kWh tax credit set to phase out after manufacturers hit 200k eligible units sold. It looks like GM and Tesla will both cross this threshold in calendar 2018. It then sunsets. The example from the article shows how the sunsetting works:

If Tesla hits 200k during 1Q 2018 then vehicles sold and shipped 1Q and 2Q 2018 would still be eligible for the full $7.5k. 3Q/4Q 2018 and 1Q/2Q 2019 would get $3.75k, and 3Q/4Q 2019 and 1Q/2Q 2020 would get $1.87k.

3) The geniuses in Congress could choose to wipe out the EV tax credit for 2018 and beyond tax years. (Hopefully they'll respect precedent and not screw around retroactively with 2017 tax year rules, as I'm claiming the PacHy on my 2017 return.) While this wouldn't necessarily affect my timeline unless they leave it for 2018 and phase it out Jan 1, 2019, it's still something to consider for the overall financial impact of replacing a working but less-fancy RAV4 EV with something else...

 

[Toshi]

1) $1,079 in first year registration fees for the PacHy in Denver County. Oof.

2) Because I am reusing old plates (that have laid fallow in my toolbox for a few years) I couldn't do the registration online, so had to call 311.

3) 311 recorded message of "para espanol marque el numero dos" is by a woman with a hilariously white sounding rendition of it.