[Toshi]

My next vehicle (planned ~2020 at the moment after I kill off our student loans) will have at the minimum current-gen-Tesla Autopilot/Nissan ProPilot level driver assist, which is SAE level 2 autonomy, I believe.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/four-upcoming-self-driving-level-3-cars-by-2019.90930/

Looks like Tesla, Audi, Nissan, and Volvo will be the contenders for my future dollarbucks. ProPilot 1.0 is a weak sauce level 2 system. I want at least level 3 if not 4 if that’s on sale. 2020 will still have a $4k CO EV/PHEV rebate so it’ll probably be around then.

 

[Toshi]

TIL that dealing with data in a cell array in MATLAB is a pain in the ass. Example:

if (cell2mat (pvals(1,5)) == 1 && strcmp(string(cell2mat (pvals(1,1))), 'NA')) ...

Through this exercise, however, I did find that the 5 years of articles I downloaded from one of the top 3 or so radiology journals do not show evidence of p-hacking when analyzed in the aggregate. This is reassuring in that I hope that what's being published at the top levels isn't crap. It's also nice because I've been planning to do this project for months now, yet finally got around to implementing it in the last few weeks.

The abstract that I then wrote around this analysis method and the results of the absence of p hacking in this one journal and time period will take me to a conference in DC at the end of May. (I need such abstracts accepted to access 15 of the 20 professional days I get each academic year expressly for this kind of stuff.)



My brain is now tired.

 

[Toshi]

So it looks like tax “reform” is going to become law. The effects of the giveaways in the 11th hour aren’t clear yet, but here’s the Tax Policy Center’s analysis of the version closest to that which the senate passed.

Definition of the percentiles used (in 2017 dollars):
20% $25,400
40% $49,600
60% $87,400
80% $150,100
90% $217,800;
95% $308,200
99% $746,100
99.9% $3,587,300

 

[Toshi]

The noise canceling headphones I picked up as an Amazon Cyber Monday deal are actually pretty sweet. Just got around to trying them now. My last and only set of noise canceling cans were an Audio Technica set from maybe 10? years ago. The head band part broke a few months ago and my wife grew tired of me stealing hers on trips.

Anyway, cool things the new ones do:

- cup hand over right earpiece and it turns off noise canceling and mics external sounds temporarily (like for a flight attendant or spouse)
- senses movement and has different customizable levels of noise cancellation for sitting at rest, walking, running, traveling at speed
- surround effects, sound stage position effects, and some high bitrate Bluetooth audio deal: sounds good enough to me, and in the past I used to rock Sennheiser HD600 cans with a dedicated headphone amp for context
- can tap and swipe on the right headphone outer panel to pause, accept a call, change volume, and change tracks. This plus wireless is handy.
- built in rechargeable battery with 30 hour life instead of fiddly AAAs that’d inevitably run low mid flight

 

[Toshi]

First fill-up with the PacHy. Reported MPG is blended and accounts for the electricity use at 33 kWh per gallon of gasoline, I believe.

The gasoline mile-only mileage as manually calculated is actually pretty shitty, 18.3 MPG. This is likely reflective of the gas engine being turned on for short bits just for defrosting and heating rather than actual propulsion for reasonable lengths of time.

I have no idea how much electricity was consumed for those 84.1% of electric-only miles: our home EVSE doesn't log usage and besides that usage is split between two electric vehicles. I could probably back of napkin it based off of that aggregate 48.1 MPG figure but don't care that much. All I am certain of is that those electric only miles were carbon free via our utility's WindSource program and PV on our roof.

 

[Toshi]

I just set up a rental of a Canon 50 mm f/1.2L for my family's May trip to Orlando (for a conference). I figure that'll make for some nice wide portraits of kids + Disney characters, and 10 days' rental (couldn't make it shorter due to shipping day restrictions) was about 10% of purchase price, so that's that...

 

[Toshi]

3) The geniuses in Congress could choose to wipe out the EV tax credit for 2018 and beyond tax years. (Hopefully they'll respect precedent and not screw around retroactively with 2017 tax year rules, as I'm claiming the PacHy on my 2017 return.) While this wouldn't necessarily affect my timeline unless they leave it for 2018 and phase it out Jan 1, 2019, it's still something to consider for the overall financial impact of replacing a working but less-fancy RAV4 EV with something else...

Uh, so I might be getting another car this month...

... and no, it's not because the PacHy has failed. In fact, we love it. It's noticeably quieter and smoother than the RAV4 EV, which itself is no slouch compared to most gasoline vehicles. The real killer feature is the full-speed adaptive cruise.

Rationale:

1. Non-negligible chance that in reconciliation the tax bill ultimately adopted will kill the Federal EV tax credit after Dec 31, 2017. (The House bill axes it and the Senate bill keeps it, but nothing's set in stone until reconciliation is completed and it's signed.)
2. We still don't have a 3rd kid on the way but it's probably going to happen sooner or later. I also go skiing mid-week while the kids are in school. Once kid 3 happens I won't be able to steal the wife's PacHy to go skiing because she'll need the minivan for its 3 car seat capability, and the RAV4 EV doesn't have enough range to make it to the mountains and back on a single charge.
3. I absolutely love the full speed dynamic cruise on the PacHy, and to be able to step up to something even better on the other car would be fabulous (e.g. Nissan ProPilot Assist).

So... were I to replace the RAV4 EV imminently it'd meet this set of requirements:

• Eligible for Federal and state EV/PHEV tax credits.
• Able to get me to and from skiing, whether via enough range in and of itself, fast charging along the way, or being a PHEV and using gas for that trip.
• At least full-speed dynamic cruise control, but ideally something even better.
• Not priced like a Tesla. Not super keen on the used Tesla market, either--I'd want something with the AP2 hardware so as to be full self-driving capable down the road in theory, and that shit isn't cheap and isn't eligible for tax credits (CO axed their used-EV credit in 2016).
• Can fit two kid car seats, one of them rear-facing, easily, so no i3 with the range extender in particular.
• Available for delivery this month.

Is this feasible? I don't know. I have to look into range (including altitude gain!), availability of quick charging, availability of fancy cruise and cruise++ systems, and whether these vehicles are actually on lots at this very moment.

 

[Toshi]

So is anything actually available that'd work given the above constraints? (Again, keep in mind that I'm limiting it to BEVs and PHEVs due to the tax credit situation. If there's no tax credit pressure then I'll gladly drive the RAV4 EV for another year until kid 3 surfaces or doesn't.)

Nissan: The 2018 LEAF isn't available yet, let alone the model with the 60 kWh pack (I already have 41.8 kWh with the admittedly less efficient RAV4 EV, and that doesn't cut it), plus there's no CHAdeMO charging between Denver and Aspen. No go.

Chevy Volt: Maybe. Has the fancy cruise at least. Not sure about headroom. However, no local Volt inventory shows up so this is similarly a no go given the must-be-December constraint. (Bolt has the same LEAF charging-for-skiing problem and has no fancy cruise at all. Nope.)

Ford Fusion Energi: Ticks the boxes with appropriate options or trims, and apparently are available locally, although I'm not sure if this includes phantom ordered-but-not-built-or-here-yet models.

Toyota Prius Prime: As per my earlier musing (and canceled order!) this would work. Not a great Land Cruiser replacement but we have that covered now with the minivan... Per the inventory search it exists on the ground but I have my doubts.

 

[Toshi]

So it's really down to the Fusion Energi and the Prius Prime, if I'm going to lock in those tax credits now given my very restrictive criteria.

Ford:

- far less ugly
- 3 rear belts, for what that's worth
- way more expensive, which kind of defeats the purpose of this exercise. See this $39k pre-credits window sticker, for instance: http://www.windowsticker.forddirect.com/windowsticker.pdf?token=0pRG7wFApd1T8XrgOAZP22uowYHfV384Z+qsZWTNvFJiOs/iuDepTD2ewqLEH0vZmWdOY270C/MzYbI3mGUgbocSJkDvSL5KBpzSgQISvs2R2dJ5Qy9kT+pA2DmFoMEfsDWYZLMxcfJvB/DwbLNFv17N4YxJ5CZoZ3SfWntV3wk=

Toyota:

- admittedly very ugly. I don't deny this!
- 2 rear seat belts but no one's cramming in 3 car seats anyway, and besides we have a minivan as the other vehicle
- price is very right indeed

I think I need to waste some Toyota dealers' time before taking off to Seattle for Christmas break. I probably should first get the RAV4 EV appraised at CarMax as a baseline, then drive a Prius Prime, get their low-ball estimate of its worth, and see if they'll deal.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Will you just get a goddam F150 and put a tailgate pad on it, already?

 

[Toshi]

Will you just get a goddam F150 and put a tailgate pad on it, already?

Oh, this won’t be the end. If I go through with this then I foresee:

- buying a Tesla or other level 3 or 4 autonomous car in 2020, around student loan end-time
- giving this fancy Prius to my parents at that time, who will have some ungodly number of miles on their base model 2016 Prius by then
- repeat and rinse every few years?

 

[Toshi]

Getting my shit together to make this potentially happen:

1) Cleaned out the RAV4 EV. It's really in pretty good shape save for a scratch here or there. Noise canceling headphones are awesome for the super loud car wash vacuum--why didn't I think of this years ago?

2) Set up an appraisal appointment for Saturday morning at CarMax.

3) Got a ballpark figure of what they might offer based off of their listing of a 2014 RAV4 EV with 20k on the clock for $20k: https://www.carmax.com/car/14625552 . On the other hand, the KBB trade in value is supposedly under $12k in good condition...

4) Verified current loan balance on the RAV4 EV, which is just over $16k. (With regard to having a loan balance on a 2012 model year used car, what can I say? At a rate of 1.24% I will take 100% LTV for the longest term possible all day long, the term being 65 months in this particular case.) This is perfect, because my mental calculations for making this feasible at all hinge around getting $16k for it.

5) Verified that CarMax will buy cars with a lien--you just pay CarMax for the negative equity if such a thing exists. With this loan amount and my drop dead amount of $16k I'll be fine. (Even if I was underwater I'd have been fine but would have to shuffle some money around, which could take a few precious days given the timeline. This is why I don't do gap insurance--I can afford it.)

I won't even worry about whether the listed Prius Primes (Prii Prime?) locally exist until I verify that $16k is feasible for the RAV4 EV. If it's not in the ballpark then I'll drive along with my standard cruise control like a regular ol' plebe and will just hijack the PacHy to take skiing until circumstances dictate that I cannot.

 

[Toshi]

I won't even worry about whether the listed Prius Primes (Prii Prime?) locally exist until I verify that $16k is feasible for the RAV4 EV.

I lied and checked, since I had some downtime today. Turns out those ones listed are phantom. The only possible prospect is one due to arrive this week at Groove Toyota.

Given all this and that CarMax will probably low ball hardcore (thus implying garden variety dealers would low ball even harder) the chances of these shenanigans resulting in action are vanishingly slim.

I really wish there were Zipcars in my neighborhood. Then I could just sell the RAV4 EV outright and use Zipcars only when necessary...

 

[Toshi]

Update: CarMax lowballed hardcore. $10k!

:lolnope:

Thus this isn’t happening. I may sell the vehicle to Mark or Shane down the road, but now there’s no urgency because CarMax was the only route that’d have let me slip in under the gun (assuming the tax credit goes away).

Whether the credit goes away or not I’m still likely better off keeping the RAV4 EV, renting a gas vehicle for ski days in subsequent seasons if necessary, and holding out for a Tesla Model Y or equivalent in 2021. By then Tesla will be out of tax credit territory anyway due to sales numbers so it’ll be irrelevant what happens with this year’s tax bill.

 

[Toshi]

I’m still likely better off keeping the RAV4 EV, renting a gas vehicle for ski days in subsequent seasons if necessary

So no issues this season: I’ll steal the PacHy on my Wednesday ski days and drive to Vail. Again the problem is if we have a third kid as threatened, as then I couldn’t steal the 3 seat capable minivan as then Jessica would be left a seat short.

I looked into renting and shuttles a bit today. It looks like the local rental shops would run about $50/day, pickup at 7:30 and late drop off at any hour after returning for the day. Gas would be about $25 for a round trip.

Typical shuttle fees would be $90 round trip, with the caveats being tips and the timeline. The one outfit I looked at has 8 as the earliest departure, and the origin is DIA so I’d have to get there beforehand, too. It’d be something like leaving here at 7, taking the train to DIA at 7:15, riding shuttle until 10 or later, skiing 11-4 straight through, hopping back on the shuttle from 4:30-7 or so, and ultimately home around 8 all said and done.

I’m conflicted. Not driving would be awesome but it also sounds like a pain in the ass. Maybe it’d be easier to suck it up and not go weekday skiing in subsequent winters... I could revert to Winter Park and take the weekend train once again even, although that doesn’t work well with kid lesson timing.

 

[Toshi]

the RAV4 EV doesn't have enough range to make it to the mountains and back on a single charge

This is undoubtedly true: can't make it there and back without charging. (It is also true that the RAV4 EV doesn't have level 3 quick charging stock, and adding on such CHAdeMO quick charging aftermarket would be pointless since the only such quick chargers are in Denver and in Aspen, the latter of which is too far to reach on a single charge anyway.)

A more interesting question is whether could I make it to a ski resort, use level 2 destination charging, and then make it back. Consider the route to Vail:

Those three destinations in Frisco, at Copper Mountain, and in Vail are the sites of level 2 EVSE along the way or at the destination. (I'd clearly not want to waste time charging en route if not necessary, but they'd give about 15 miles of range per hour of charging in a pinch.)

So could I make it? The altitude change is clearly a huge factor, as is the weather due to its effect on rolling resistance, battery efficiency, and power draw cabin heat. Thankfully, someone out there has modeled these factors, at least for Teslas:

https://www.evtripplanner.com/

With more or less reasonable assumptions (Model S 60 with the less efficient 21" wheel/tire package so heavier but more sleek than the RAV4 EV, 35 degrees outside temperature) I get the following, recalling that the RAV4 EV has a 41.8 kWh Tesla battery pack and a Model S-like electric motor:

30.9 kWh from my house to Frisco with heat, 28.9 kWh with no heat.
35.5 kWh from my house to Copper with heat, 33.3 kWh with no heat.
37.9 kWh from my house to Vail with heat, 35.4 kWh with no heat, 33.9 kWh if both no heat and driving at 90% traffic speed.

Another consideration is whether these level 2 EVSE will actually be available. In Frisco there are 2 but 1 is chronically broken and the other is reportedly often used by a Whole Foods employee (it's in their lot), so that's sketchy. In Copper there are 2, both reportedly in working order. In Vail there are 23 in town total (!), 10 of which are actually in the main parking garage that I'd park anyway. So both for convenience and for EVSE availability I want to be able to make it all the way to Vail.

So what's the answer: Could I make it to Vail on a single charge in the RAV4 EV? Yes, in theory. I might have to drive 55 with no cabin heat, and certainly would do that for the first trial run in case the modeled Model S (Cd 0.24, about 4800 lbs) is much more efficient in reality than the RAV4 EV (0.30 Cd, about 4000 lbs).

The net result is that I'm going to give this a try on my first planned Vail ski day, January 10. (I'm going to Keystone on Dec 31 but there are no level 2 EVSE there at all.) If this works then the whole "can't steal minivan from wife mid-week if we have 3 kids" future issue is resolved without rental cars or time-consuming shuttles. Furthermore, if this is possible on 41.8 kWh, if barely so, then with a 60 kWh LEAF it'd be no problem even with cabin heat and a normal pace.

 

[6thElement]

For a sufficient supply of my wifes favourite beer I'm sure we can give you some charge en-route

 

[Toshi]

For a sufficient supply of my wifes favourite beer I'm sure we can give you some charge en-route

Thanks for the offer, but it's a nice demonstration of how anything but level 3/DC fast charging en route is useless.

Charging from a 120V plug at your house via the portable level 1 EVSE in the car's trunk would yield about 2.5 miles of range per hour of charging.
Charging from a 240V level 2 EVSE en route, like at that Whole Foods in Frisco or at the Copper Mountain parking lot, would yield about 15 miles of range per hour of charge.
Charging at a 40 kW level 3 DC fast charger en route would give about 50 miles for a half hour of charging. (But again no such fast chargers exist between Golden and Aspen, and the RAV4 EV as it sits isn't compatible with this, either.)
((If I were part of the Tesla club then I could recharge at Silverthorne at their 135 kW Superchargers and get ~180 miles for 30 minutes of charging.))

So if your house is a 3 mile detour off of I-70 I'd have to have a 3-beer brunch with you all to even have a very small net benefit...

 

[Toshi]

Context for my griping about CarMax low-balling me and all: I just checked my cryptocurrency "investments", and it looks like I'm up $17k+ from when I bought my positions in June 2017.

:notbadobama:

(I'm going to hodl until retirement, though–don't need the money now.)


Edit: Didn't include BCC in there since that won't show up on Coinbase until Jan 1, 2018.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Context for my griping about CarMax low-balling me and all: I just checked my cryptocurrency "investments", and it looks like I'm up $17k+ from when I bought my positions in June 2017.

:notbadobama:

(I'm going to hodl until retirement, though–don't need the money now.)

You should sell before it crashes.

 

[Toshi]

You should sell before it crashes.

If I lose all of my initial stake I'm fine with it. I'd also be very fine with hodl-ing for 25 years and getting a few million out of that…

 

[Toshi]

Initial word leaking out is that the "tax reform" bill at least keeps my favorite EV tax credit, in addition to not treating tuition forgiveness as income for grad students.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-13/compromise-tax-bill-is-said-to-keep-wind-electric-car-credits-jb5dh81s

Still a shitty deal overall--more debt for all so that corporations and super rich families can benefit?--but that solves my "must buy a PHEV or EV NOW" problem...

 

[Toshi]

30.9 kWh from my house to Frisco with heat, 28.9 kWh with no heat.
35.5 kWh from my house to Copper with heat, 33.3 kWh with no heat.
37.9 kWh from my house to Vail with heat, 35.4 kWh with no heat, 33.9 kWh if both no heat and driving at 90% traffic speed.

The net result is that I'm going to give this a try on my first planned Vail ski day, January 10. (I'm going to Keystone on Dec 31 but there are no level 2 EVSE there at all.)

If there's still shit for snow on Dec 31 I may do this driving to Vail escapade instead of skiing at Keystone: drive up there +/- flatbed ride, hang around the village, eat and drink, get some electrons in the pack, head downhill in early afternoon.

Time to establish some criteria for what I should be looking for, and when I'll need to stop for charge or not (2.1 kWh per "bar" except the last, apparently, so let's call it 2 kWh):

I-70 and Central City Parkway: Should be still showing 13 bars of charge.
I-70 and US-40: Should be showing 11 bars.
I-70 and US-6 at Loveland: Should have just dropped from 7 to 6 bars left. This is the point of no return (without charging), more or less, as a round trip should use 36 kWh if I turn around here. If I'm using more energy then turning around at this time should still at least get me back to the west side of the Denver metro area, where chargers exist (e.g. Golden).

Frisco: Should still have 6 bars left. At least 6.5 kWh needed to get from Frisco to Vail. Charge if showing less than 5 bars.
Copper: On track will mean 4 bars showing. At least 2.1 kWh needed to get from Copper to Vail. Charge if 3 or less bars as the last bar is both smaller and associated with a limp-home mode, I believe.
Vail: If I make it, I make it... and if I don't, the number for Toyota is 800-331-4331 if the SOS button in the car doesn't work. I should have a good enough idea before this point whether the estimates are playing out with reality, though, so actual chances of requiring a tow (assuming functional EVSE along the way!) are slim.

As for what I need in the pack to make it home from Vail, the EV trip planner with similar assumptions as used all along says 25.7 kWh. I'll know by that point whether the assumptions were fair ones to make. If they were and I made it there ok then I should be fine with a non-extended 35 kWh charge and could even use the cabin heater! (Such luxury--like a normal car!) If I rode in on a flatbed then 41.8 kWh should do it, with any luck... and getting that full 41.8 kWh from a 6.6 kW charger will take over 6 hours.

This all sounds like a great idea, I think. I should bring a book, and hope there's not a headwind!

 

[Nick]

what are those charge/range numbers based on? Because, I don't know if you've been stuck in 'typical' Denver2Vail traffic during a snow event, but you can easily double or triple the commute time, and reduce your average speeds to a healthy biking pace much of the time.

The last time I skied Copper was on a Sunday. Perfect snow, refills all day, first chair to last chair. Left just after 4pm in a VERY light snow, got home around 10:30pm. I swore I'd never ski there again unless I skied a 1/2 day or spent the night and drove home in the morning.

Perhaps use the electric car for predictable commutes, and maintain ownership of a fossil fuel Earth Fucker for heading into the mountains?

 

[Toshi]

what are those charge/range numbers based on? Because, I don't know if you've been stuck in 'typical' Denver2Vail traffic during a snow event, but you can easily double or triple the commute time, and reduce your average speeds to a healthy biking pace much of the time.

The last time I skied Copper was on a Sunday. Perfect snow, refills all day, first chair to last chair. Left just after 4pm in a VERY light snow, got home around 10:30pm. I swore I'd never ski there again unless I skied a 1/2 day or spent the night and drove home in the morning.

Perhaps use the electric car for predictable commutes, and maintain ownership of a fossil fuel Earth Fucker for heading into the mountains?

I think the assumption indeed is of steady state driving. These Vail trips in question would be on Wednesdays so hopefully not too far off from the truth? Did the tunnel close on your nightmare Copper return trip or was the volume just that heavy?

Replacing the RAV4 EV with a gas car or (another, like the minivan) plug-in hybrid would simplify things, yes. Thus the frenetic Prius Prime/PHEV exploration this month when I thought the tax credit was in jeopardy. So, too, would not having a third kid...

Paths forward:

1) No third kid. No issues taking the PHEV minivan during the week if the RAV4 EV can't make it to Vail. Wife shuttles kids that day in RAV4 EV. Done.

2) RAV4 EV can make it to Vail. Great. I take it, revel in how cheap it is to run, and don't worry about replacing it until autonomous vehicles are hitting the market down the road a bit, which conveniently should be around when my student loans are paid off.

2) RAV4 EV can't make it to Vail. Either I settle for charging along the way at Frisco or Copper (which still would be probably only an equivalent pain/time sink as renting or taking a shuttle) or I suck it up, realize the depreciation on it, and switch out to something else for next winter. Knowing how fickle I am and how I want an autonomous car as soon as possible, if I do this I should probably just sign up for a 24 month lease on a 60 kWh Nissan LEAF with ProPilot Assist, or go PHEV or even straight up conventional.

 

[ALEXIS_DH]

Knowing how fickle I am and how I want an autonomous car as soon as possible,

that might be take a while.

a few months ago I had a serious business conversation about this very same topic with some big cheeses in Stuttgart; and they (the germans at least) dont see it in the near future.

liability, not technical issues; are the main problem to implementation.
i have an idea on whats in the pipeline for the next 4 years... and fully autonomous cars are not there yet

i understand telsa wants to enter the insurance business; which pretty much is the only solution i see to the liability problem from the manufacturer/suppliers side.

thing is... if the insurance business were to be combined with the manufacturing business (at least for passenger cars), that´d be seppuku for the car industry.
passenger cars are sold pretty much at cost, with margins made on parts, mostlly on collsion parts, mostly paid by insurance companies.
take insurance in-house, and you move the price war to, yet, another turf.
I dont see that happening very soon... manufacturers will fight to death to delay that.

 

[Toshi]

M-B hasn't been in the forefront of the news. From what I've read it'll be Nissan, Tesla, Volvo, or Audi first out of the gate with a full-speed* level 3 or 4 vehicle.

* as opposed to Audi's 60 kph level 3 system: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-says-2019-a8-level-3-self-driving-tech-capable-of-doubling-speed/

Now that I read that article it seems it hasn't met regulatory approval in the US in even low speed form, thus your point. Hmph.

 

[ALEXIS_DH]

yup, we are still a good 10 (optimistic) to 20 years (realistic) for mainstream autonomous cars.

the technical part has been solved pretty much; as in, current autonomous cars can actually take you places and are less crash-prone than human drivers.

there are minor issues like jerkiness/stuttering (future versions will likely iron out those details); but liability definitions and a legal framework thats both convinient for the manufacturer/suppliers and compliant with current laws in the US/europe , are the main hurdle to mass implementation.

tesla´s insurance is pretty much a bypass to convenient legislation... but I doubt many big players would follow through. its potentially toxic for the business.

 

[Toshi]

Today was the day to do the yearly song and dance routine with my ISP, calling them up and threatening to quit unless they could re-up me for another 12 months at whatever promo rate they're offering. Well, the rep countered with an even better deal: $85/month inclusive of fees but not taxes x forever, for my current gigabit internet-only service.

Done. (This is a few ducats cheaper than the promo rates, and the nominal "real" rate that I've never paid is something north of $200, I think.)

Edit: Turns out this is their new "normal" rate. Nice, even if it wasn't some special, sweet deal.

 

[Toshi]

Highly relevant to my interests. The gist of it is that economics and cost curves will drive everything inexorably to solar power, EVs, and autonomous vehicles without individual ownership, perhaps by 2030.

 

[6thElement]

Today was the day to do the yearly song and dance routine with my ISP, calling them up and threatening to quit unless they could re-up me for another 12 months at whatever promo rate they're offering. Well, the rep countered with an even better deal: $85/month inclusive of fees but not taxes x forever, for my current gigabit internet-only service.

Done. (This is a few ducats cheaper than the promo rates, and the nominal "real" rate that I've never paid is something north of $200, I think.)

Edit: Turns out this is their new "normal" rate. Nice, even if it wasn't some special, sweet deal.

I need to do that with Xfinity, they just raised our bill by another $10 this month...

 

[Toshi]

Ski advice time:

I'm on 2015 Volkl Mantras now per Nick's advice. 177 cm, 100 mm underfoot, 23.8 m radius, fully rockered, no camber. My impression of them is that they're a touch long despite the rocker, feel a bit dead, and the combination of my skiing + them leads to some tip chatter on fast groomers. (Last two skis before the Mantras were Soul 7s and Rossignol ~68 mm GS race skis--I've bounced around in styles of skis and skiing, clearly.)

What I'm looking for, likely for next season rather than this due to teaching Yuna half of my ski days, is something that skis a bit lighter (doesn't have to be physically lighter a la the Head Kore series--don't think this would agree with me), has more GS-style pop coming off the end of turns, a frontside carver but without being stuck to groomers exclusively.

From reading through the Ski Magazine review issue it seems like one of these two should work for me:

Nordica GT Speedmachine 80 Evo. 80 mm underfoot, 15.5 m radius at 174 cm.

Nordica Enforcer 93. 93 mm underfoot (duh), 16.5 m radius at 177 cm.

Any thoughts on either of these? I'll try to demo them this season, of course, as I have two Christy Sports demo day cards to burn if they haven't expired, but they kind of define the category of ski that I think I should be headed toward...

 

[Nick]

the Mantra definitely favors soft conditions, as any low full rocker skis would. those tips wouldn't be as chattery if they were in some snow.
If it's groomers you'll be focused on then yea, something with full camber is the ticket. If "without being stuck to groomers exclusively" means any typical ski day in Colorado you'll need some minor/moderate rocker and splay in the tips.

I'm surprised you feel the 177s ski long, especially on groomers. Can you elaborate?

JWB demo'd the Enforcer and loved it, wants to buy them. I'd owned a pair of Blizzard Bonafide and think they fit what you're looking for too.
If you plan to keep the Mantra for deeper days without the kids (which you should!) then supplement with something quite opposite. Not an 'all-mtn' ski, but a real groomer ripper.

I just got a pair of 95mm metal 19m radius skis and for the two days I've got on them I've been loving carving real carvey, locked turns, and they feel stable at careless speed. If they were 90 or 88 I'm sure I'd be just as happy.

 

[Toshi]

They don’t feel long on groomers, but instead when in the trees or tightly spaced bumps. That may well be my technique leading to that feeling, but it feels like there’s a lot of tail.

If I were going to keep two skis then wouldn’t you think to go wider yet for the other instead of sticking with the Mantras? I guess 100mm was fine for the few powder days I did get last year...

 

[Nick]

You're talking to someone with like 5 different skis at any given time, so....

Yes. A two ski quiver for out here could be a 95 and like a 115-120, depending on shape.

 

[SkaredShtles]

You're talking to someone with like 5 different skis at any given time, so....

Yes. A two ski quiver for out here could be a 95 and like a 115-120, depending on shape.

I'd argue if you're gonna go for a two-ski quiver out here it would be something skinnier, shaped, and burly and something around 100-110 and "fun-shaped"... I think in Colorado Powder the rocker/rise nonsense is more important than width. I think I'd want the big skis to be pretty soft, too.

For a 1-ski quiver, something in that 105-110 range, regular camber, a little tip and tail rise, and burly. But that's mainly 'cause I'm fat and like to go fast.

 

[ALEXIS_DH]

in light of my recent test-drive of a 911 GT3 (of the 997.1 variety, as in Porsche-phile dialect); I decided to visit my local Porsche dealer to learn a bit more about the not-so-hardcore models; and perhaps, sucumb to the mermaids singing....

so I took a gently-used 997 Carrera S for a spin with a sales guy....
first impression was the car was small, a bit uncomfortable and compromised (the driving position was perfect, though) and lacking in refinement for such an expensive car...
rolled into the street, suspension in sport (it was very soft in non-sport) and PDK in manual.... waited for traffic to clear, and punched to gas to the floor (even bounced of the rev limited in 2nd)... my second impression to the sales guy was...

"that was it???? wtf?"

masssively underwhelming. 2 stars out of 5, would not bang.

i tried a couple more times... and really, that was it.. no torque, vague and light steering (gasp!), iffy brakes....
nimble? yes... on virtue of being small and austere; but really, not much of quality to be said about the car besides that.

911s are way overrated (maybe turbos are scary, who knows). i tried really hard to understand its appeal... but really could not.
maybe 991s are better, but I didnt bother to find out.
definately not $120k+ (for the carrera S) sport cars in my book. plenty of more way exciting options avaiable.

 

[Toshi]

Nick, when you recommended the Mantra to me were you thinking of New Mantra or Old Mantra?

My impression of the New Mantra that I have matches up pretty well with this write up: https://theskimonster.com/products/volkl-mantra/ . It’s the feel from the tail that I am griping about, again noting a history of GS-shaped skis in my past.

From this write up and my own experience last season the float is good on the New Mantra... which leads me to thinking that the 80 mm frontside ripper may be the better second half of a two ski quiver. Much will depend on what Christy Sports has in their demo fleet on a given day.


Edit: or something like the Navigator 90, with the nose of an all mountain ski, 90 mm underfoot, and a snappy carving tail from their race line.

http://www.skiessentials.com/Chairlift-Chat/2018-Nordica-Navigator-90-Ski-Review


>>>>> write up from The Ski Monster below:

The Mantra has been a household name for quite some time. Over the last 10 years or so you have probably owned a pair or had at least one friend that has. Until the 14/15 season the flagship Volkl had gone pretty much unchanged. In 2015 the Mantra got a full rocker construction and a little more width underfoot measuring in at 100mm. Because most people reading this review are so familiar with 'old' cambered Mantra we thought it'd be appropriate to answer the question you really are on this page to find out..

What are the differences between the Old Volkl Mantra and the New Mantra?

The waist width change is negligible but seems like a big change because Volkl went from two digits (98mm) to three (100mm). The shape change and full rocker construction really change how it skis. The New Mantra has a moderate 5 cut shape/taper shape, which keeps weight down some in the tip and tail, ergo reducing the swing weight making the ski easier to maneuver in un-groomed conditions. Now the taper is moderate so it doesn't reduce the effective edge as much as the Ranger 98 or FX95 -- more effective edge means more edge gripping the snow.

The Full Rocker in the Mantra does make the ski easier to handle than it's cambered or cambered with tip rocker predecessor. Due to the lack of camber, the 17/18 Mantra needs a little more speed to get to hook up in a turn. If you can get your skis on edge and like to carve big turns you'll really love the way this skis on the front side -- basically if you're an expert big turn carver you'll love it. The full rocker does improve the float in pow substantially, the Old Mantra doesn't hold a candle to the New Mantra in that regard.

What the New Mantra doesn't do as well as the old one is feel exciting on the frontside at lower speeds. It still comes around in the turn but it doesn't have the same feel in the tail that the old Mantra did when the trail isn't steep. Other than that the New Mantra is awesome and having a Mantra feel that actually performs well in soft snow or off-trail is well worth the trade off for cruising blues.

 

[Toshi]

Elder kid is fighting sleep. I’m on kid duty upstairs, minding them and herding them back to bed, thus am bored.

Topic to explore in said boredom: stupid manufacturer lease policies for tax credit-eligible electric vehicles. Case in point today is the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.

The key specs for the Outlander are an effective battery capacity of 12.45 kWh, a resultant Federal tax credit of $5,836 (as $7,500 correlates with 16 kWh), and a base model MSRP of $34,870 + $940 destination.

Given that there’s a $2k purchase price factory rebate, therefore a sane starting point for a lease’s capitalized cost would be 34,870 + 940 - 2,000 - 5,836, or $27,974. This reflects that the lessor, not the lessee, claims the Federal tax credit.

Instead, however, Mitsubishi's published lease offer for this model has a net capitalized cost of $32,018 including a $595 acquisition fee. Backing out that unavoidable fee and one can see that the lessor, Ally Financial in this case, is pocketing just shy of $3,500 and not passing that through to the lessee. $100 per month on a 36 month lease, or more than that at 24, can change things quite a bit...

(“Quite a bit”: In lease nerd terms, their advertised deal works out to be roughly a $20k residual with a 3.5%-equivalent money factor. At 0 down the Mitsubishi “deal” would be $410/month for 36 months. At the proper capitalized cost that’d be $309/month all else held constant.)

CNs for the above: lease companies are greedy and aren’t passing the tax credit that only they can claim on such transactions through to consumers.


Chrysler is doing a very similar shell game with Pacifica Hybrid leases, too. I don’t care about that so much but do care more about the Outlander PHEV lease situation, as that’s not something I’d want long term but is something I’d live with for 24 months on the right terms. (Not these terms, though!)

 

[Toshi]

Median housing price / median income. Vancouver's caption got cut off in the graphic, but their ratio is 17.3.

This explains why Seattle feels so much more expensive to me than Denver, for instance, not to mention that my field's labor market is distorted such that I'd make less in Seattle.