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Toshi's thread

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by Toshi, Apr 20, 2002.

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  1. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Ride North Table today. Shoulder not good. Rock gardens make it feel like my forearm scabs are about to bleed. Thus I took it very easy. Seems like it’d be an entertaining trail with the optional rocks that I avoided today.
     
    #7841 -   Oct 5, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2018

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  2. canadmos

    canadmos Mater Slayer

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    I assume that's "forearm scabs"?

    Or your actual shoulder still no bueno?
     
  3. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Whoops. Yes. Shoulder better than before but not good. Can now raise arm above shoulder height but still has a deep twinge and feels unstable.
     
  4. Pesqueeb

    Pesqueeb bicycle in airplane hangar

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    We did 60 month on the Mazda, because 0.9%
     
    #7844 -   Oct 7, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2018
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  5. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Did the omakase (chef’s choice) at Matsuhisa last night. It really was much monocle, many wows: 3 hours, 8 courses.

    While good and different than what I’d pick I think next time we are there I’ll stick to ordering myself.
     
  6. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Winter is coming.

     
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  7. jstuhlman

    jstuhlman We noticed.

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    are you doing stretching / strengthening exercises for dat shoulder? all e-jokes aside, take care of yourself bud!
     
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  8. Westy

    Westy the teste

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    To the great detriment of my bank account I have done two chef's tasting menus and an omakase dinner this month. While the tasting menus were interesting they seemed to be trying way too hard. As far as $/delight is concerned I'd rather hit the local taco joint. The omakase dinner was simple yet amazing, will happily hit that shit again.
     
  9. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    TBddd797slSxO.gif
     
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  10. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    hamachi belly isn't a regular on the local menu, but the chef often has a few pieces. trust yo' chefs.
     
  11. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I haven't thus far. I expect the ortho doc that I'll see later this month to recommend PT, but I'd also like to get an MRI to see exactly what's up. I figure I either sprained or tore my supraspinatus based on what motions I can and cannot do. Biking season is likely over for me... but it won't stop me skiing.

    Chef's tasting at non-Asian places and omakase at a sushi joint? Because omakase is the sushi chef's choice, after all... They did try hard (e.g. thin strips of some giant mushroom with a sprinkling of parmesan and citrus as a salad--it worked) but ultimately I'd have been happy with some toro, wagyu, and one or two odd things.

    Fair enough. All but one dish of our 8 courses wasn't on the regular menu as far as I could tell.
     
  12. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    aristocracy passed over me. I'm thrilled to get some fatty belly once in a while :drool:
     
  13. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    Hmmm... I wonder if this is what I had in San Fran at PABU - they called it "fatty tuna" and it was so so so good. :drool:
     
  14. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Fatty tuna is "toro". Done right it is the best, but it can be mangled in preparation and that lovely fatty texture lost completely.
     
  15. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    And the final update to the correspondence chain, which cements that I shall never consider a Volvo again in the future. This just wasn't a luxury car-brand experience on many levels.

    >>>>>

    Hi Toshi,

    Unfortunately, after having your request reviewed with our regional manager, the request for assistance has been denied. I apologize I was unable to meet your expectations you were hoping for in this matter.

    I apologize for this experience and please contact me with any additional questions.

    Med vänliga hälsningar!

    Yours Sincerely,

    Eric
    Volvo Car USA
    201-308-8598
     
  16. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    which request is being rejected, exactly?
     
  17. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    For some future financial benefit to keep me in a Volvo after this lease is up.
     
  18. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    They apparently don't appreciate how influential you are.

     
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  19. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Final numbers for the Volvo botched transaction:

    1) I was credited 2 months' lease payments from Volvo Car Financial Services due to the dealer not getting their paperwork correct and on time to them. This was withheld from the dealer's disbursement by VCFS, so the dealer effectively paid.

    $605.29 x 2 net benefit.

    2) I was reimbursed for August's Uber and rental car expenses by Volvo Corporate.

    $0 net benefit, since this was a reimbursement for extra expenses that I incurred due to this fuckup.

    3) The dealer reimbursed me for my first year's (actually 17 months--backdated to May) registration fees and threw in some extra money on top of that. I guess they felt guilty and this was how much they'd pocketed from the transaction initially? I paid for $1,147.37 out of pocket, which I would have paid myself were this transaction "normal", asked for exactly that in reimbursement as they'd promised the same, and received a check last night for $2,080.44, to my surprise.

    $2,080.44 net benefit, since again I would have paid the registration on my own otherwise. (Yes, ~$1k first year registration for a new vehicle of about this value is par for the course in Denver County.)

    So overall I came out ahead $3,291.02 in exchange for 5 extra DMV visits x ~1 hr, and countless phone calls to the dealer, DMV, and VCFS over the last 5 months. Meh. Still would have rather it had been a smooth, normal transaction and not dealt with any of this.
     
    #7859 -   Oct 12, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  20. Pesqueeb

    Pesqueeb bicycle in airplane hangar

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    Don't forget, the LULZ were priceless........
     
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  21. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    The wife's 2019 PHEV minivan to replace her 2018 is now in JB status. This means built, OKed by QC, shipped to an upfitter for who knows what. Maybe another month before we see it?

    Codes:

    BA: New order that hasn't been checked
    BB: Review by fleet department
    BD: Special equipment processing
    BE: Edit error
    BG: Passed edit n/a for schedule
    BGL: Edit ok parts unavailable
    BX: Passed edit available for schedule
    C: Sub firm - Tentative schedule
    D: Firm schedule - dealer has allocation and all parts available
    D1: Gateline schedule - scheduled to be built
    E: Frame
    F: Paint
    G: Trim
    I: Built not ok'd
    J: Built ok'd
    JB: Shipped to Upfit Center (for Stripe)
    JE: Emission check
    JS: Shipped to storage
    KZ: Released by plant , invoiced
    KZL: Released - not shipped
    KZM: First rail departure
    KZN: First rail arrival
    KZO: Delayed/recieved
    KZOA: Plant holds
    KZOB: Zone/distribution holds
    KZOC: Carrier delays
    KZOD: Carrier holds
    KZOE: Mis-shipped vehicle
    KZOF: Show/test vehicle
    KZOG: Damaged vehicle
    KZOH: All other reasons
    KZT: Second rail departure
    KZU: Second rail arrival
    KZX: Delivered to dealer
    ZA: Canceled
     
  22. 6thElement

    6thElement Schrodinger's Immigrant

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    Is it a black van with a red stripe running down the side angling up to the rear roof mounted spoiler?
     
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  23. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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  24. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Now that I think of it despite the internet-sourced status code lists (including that stripe bit) it's probably for the mudguards. Seems excessive to ship it out just for that but what do I know of production logistics?
     
  25. 6thElement

    6thElement Schrodinger's Immigrant

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    Splash guards look minimal imo, shouldn't take too long to fit.
    a-team-van-replica-008.jpg
     
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  26. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Lately the Audi e-tron has been reportedly delayed due to some software change requiring recertification. This is amusing since it's not due until Q2 2019 anyway: what's 4 weeks when the ship date is nebulous to begin with?

    With the inevitable further delays I bet it will ship in 2020. Given that I'll need something in May 2021 this timeframe will actually work out pretty well, and from the looks of it on paper it seems like it could be right up my alley:

    - 95 kWh pack, which should be quite sufficient given a reasonably efficient platform
    - 150 kW CCS quick charging, which should work nicely with 150/350 kW CCS chargers along I-70 that should exist by 2020 per the VW-Dieselgate-settlement roadmap for ski trip top-offs if necessary
    - 9.6 kW charging on level 2 EVSE at home, similarly perfect since we already have such a 40A EVSE mounted on the garage wall
    - sane 2 row size with a 115" wheelbase so lots of legroom
    - supposedly enough headroom… supposedly. "Top class" is the quote but no real numbers.
    - AWD
    - 2" hitch, as they're touting a 4k tow rating
    - all of the tech goodies, namely 360 degree camera, presumably stop and go capable adaptive cruise, autobrake, and not only CarPlay but also Alexa (!)
    - all of the comfort goodies, namely my prized ventilated seats and a fancy Bang & Olufson audio system
    - quick enough to be entertaining at 5.5 sec 0-60

    But it's expensive. With all the trimmings it's $81.8k pre tax credits, so just a hair under $70k with credits. I'll certainly consider other options as well given that that's not an insignificant amount of money and that it'll no doubt depreciate at a greater rate than its discounted price of $70k would imply.

    Other options would be the great/awful 993 idea, the Tesla Model Y if it's shipping by then, and even the rumored FCA PHEV SUVs (Renegade? Cherokee? Grand Cherokee?) since I've had good luck with the PacHy save for the one dead 12V-due-to-recall incident. The Mercedes EQC might have a place in this list, too. The Jaguar i-Pace looks terrible and probably won't have a hitch. The Taycan will similarly likely suffer from hitchlessness, even in Gran Turismo form.



    Edit: Forgot about the CO tax credits sunsetting. Add $3.5k to effective price if in-service date is 2021, $2.5k if 2020. There's also the uncertainty of whether Federal tax code will stay the same if for some reason the Democrats do not take the House this year.
     
    #7866 -   Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
  27. jstuhlman

    jstuhlman We noticed.

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    remind me again why you felt the need to buy through a dealer in ohio rather than your local dealer? was that basically the source of your problems?
     
  28. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Illinois. It was because local dealers had no availability. They said maybe September, and as I'd prematurely sold the RAV4 EV over the winter I needed a ride. The Illinois dealer had a vehicle in stock and available right then, and I incorrectly assumed that leasing a new Volvo would be hassle-free regardless of the state.

    TMYK.

    If I had to do it again I'd wait for local stock of something (perhaps even an XC40) and would have held onto the RAV4 EV until such point I had it in my driveway. This may become relevant again if I go e-tron down the road as Audi dealers won't be stocking them. Order only. Lag time for such an order won't be known for a bit, but hopefully well enough defined by late 2020 to guide me.
     
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  29. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I will amuse you all and buy a Trust fork... once student loans are all paid off. At some point I should probably get a longer (reach) bike than the 5010, too, when Super Mega Boost Plus++ comes out.
     
  30. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Just saw ortho. They, too, suspect rotator cuff tear. MRI time!


    Edit: MRI scheduled tomorrow/Saturday. Outpatient appointments on the weekend are very nice indeed.
     
    #7870 -   Oct 26, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2018
  31. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    :thumbsdown:
     
  32. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    From my MSK rad friend on call this weekend:

    "Toshi-
    Looks like bad tendinosis of Supra but no tear. Also some bursitis.

    There’s a tiny 1.1 cm incidental in the latissimus dorsi muscle likely a small benign nerve sheath tumor

    Looks like a painful shoulder"

    Time to double dose Aleve for a few days.
     
  33. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    Tenderloin and burritos?? I'd say u got off easy.
     
  34. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Paid off the 2018 PacHy's loan today in anticipation of selling it once the 2019 arrives (date still TBD but soon? as it's been built for a few weeks now). I have a buyer lined up at $36k and I don't care enough to push for more. Therefore I can do the final math on how much this vehicle cost over a year:



    One missing element is of Denver DMV registration fees, but that's basically a constant based off of vehicle value for the first few years, plus part of that is tax deductible... so I'm going to ignore it. Any other missing elements? Assuming I didn't miss anything big then coming out under $300/month for a the first year of ownership of a new $49k MSRP vehicle*, taxes included, is pretty damn good, IMO. That it's very cheap to run is just icing on the cake.

    * MSRP was $49,080. I paid $47,889 + taxes and fees, thus the $52k line in the screenshot.
     
  35. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    A relevant point of comparison given state tax variability and the like would be the $604/mo, tax inclusive, I pay to lease the Volvo, which is a $46.3k MSRP vehicle as optioned and had a well-structured lease (near-0 money factor, 62% residual value at 36 months). Again, :notbadobama: with regard to the minivan cost of ownership.

    The relevant follow-up question, of course, would be whether I should repeat this exercise in future years. Factors:

    1) Interest rates are higher now than they were a year ago so this year's loan will cost more, on the order of $1,600 of interest in the first year, whereas the time value of money return on the $12,500 in rebates will be about the same on average, and exactly the same in my crude calculation.

    2) On the other hand, if I kept the forthcoming 2019 PacHy longer term I'd still be saddled with that same interest rate.

    3) Calendar 2019 is the last year of the full $5k CO state EV/PHEV rebate. 2020 sees it at $4k, 2021 at $2.5k, then nada. Barring Federal tax code changes the Federal rebate should be unchanged for the foreseeable future for FCA vehicles.

    4) Unclear what residual values will do once more PacHys hit the market. Mine's one of the first 2018s for sale for obvious reasons.

    I'm leaning towards yes, doing this again in calendar 2019 (ordering a 2020 in August, delivery Oct/Nov as anticipated for the 2019) unless residuals plummet.
     
    #7875 -   Oct 31, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
  36. 6thElement

    6thElement Schrodinger's Immigrant

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    Not sure if you'd have caught this report on Mr Money Mustache.

     
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  37. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    "Don't buy anything new" is something I've practiced most of my life. Obviously I spend a bunch of cash on recreation but I've really focused on not working until death in recent years. I know someone I went to school with who retired at 45. Good thing I enjoy what I do.
     
  38. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Nice to see him get some attention, and the general concept of saving. Who knew that was possible this day and age?!

    Thoughts, in no particular order:

    1) That's the first I've seen of Mrs. Money Mustache. She's pretty.

    2) Bit of an understatement to say that their savings rate in their 20s was just a little more than others making a similar amount of money. :D

    3) Implicit in all this is to not do private schools or otherwise throw money away.

    4) Except for the one lady interviewed everyone there is overwhelmingly white. Just throwing that out there: many reasons why this would be so in terms of socioeconomic barriers to even getting to a post-college, minimal debt starting place.

    5) Pete's insinuation that median earners are those buying the best-selling vehicle (F-150 for those who didn't watch the video) is incorrect. I've covered this before in past posts. Cliffs Notes are that new car buyers are older and earn more. Of course we're still talking about ~$90k median, iirc, so it's still a bad financial decision. Just not as bad as what's implied.



    This brings me to my annual state of the financial union assessment. Last year I saved about 21% gross in tax-deferred accounts. About 21% of income went to debt service ex cars (mortgage, student loans).

    I put just over 3% gross away in 529 accounts for the kids (which will get bumped up a bit with kid 3's arrival). The cars, using the actual cost value for the PacHy and the lease cost for the Volvo as that should be a perfect mimic of depreciation if structured right, cost me under 3% gross income.

    I was hoping to kill my student loans a bit earlier, but it's looking like I might get them done in 2022 at this rate. Mortgage is 30 year and at a decent rate so I'm not looking to pay ahead on that. When student loans go away then I will totally buy a Winter Park (or other mountain locale) condo where the mortgage comes out to about the same amount. For better or worse this means my savings rate will remain ~20% unless I get religion and go Mustachian.



    Note that Mr. MM's simplistic math would imply that I have over 35 years until I'm able to retire. This is incorrect because it assumes income - living expenses <==> savings rate. With so much of my money tied up in debt service (meaning that I actually live on less and would thus need less to retire on) the math isn't as simple.
     
  39. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I tried to figure this out a bit more precisely and ended up largely going in circles save for on a few points:

    1) It's important to figure out how much money per year one will want in retirement. A reverse net to gross calculator can help with this, noting that it's laden with assumptions: https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/tax-planning/net-to-gross-paycheck-tax-calculator.aspx

    2) Take that gross amount and then multiply by 25x per the Trinity Study safe withdrawal rate.

    3) Then play around with the fv function in Excel or your favorite Google clone thereof to figure out how many years it'll take at 5% to get to that 25x amount based off your starting point and the amount you can save per year.



    What I found from the above:

    1) If I save at my current rate then it'll take me about 18 years to reach that magic number. Kick up savings 25% more (relative to current rate, not absolute) and that drops to 16 years. Kick it up 50% over baseline and it's just over 14 years. So likely around when I'm ~55 based off of that super crude calculation.

    2) I neglected mortgage payment(s) in figuring out how much money per year, for two reasons. One is that it's depressing to include them. The other is that they're time limited. At age 55 I'd still have about 10 years left on this current house's mortgage, and perhaps a similar amount on a mountain condo's mortgage if I went for a 25 year note at inception.

    3) So how to pay for said mortgages? Per that reverse net to gross calculator it looks like I'd need to supplement investment income by continuing to work at roughly 0.3 FTE x 10 years until the mortgages were paid off. Alternately I could work at a higher FTE fraction and pay them off quicker.




    This all jives with what I have figured before coming at it from different angles. Assuming we get a mountain condo and thereby replace current student loan payments with a second mortgage of similar size I'll have to work full time until at least age 55 before being able to cut back to part time. If I instead increased savings by the same amount instead then I could cut back around age 50 instead but would incur more rental costs and wouldn't end up with a nice chunk of equity. Choices, choices…
     
  40. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Plans to be realized in December, albeit less :monocle: than @stoney 's king-size deck(s):



    Who needs money anyway? :grumpy: At least I get a nice shed on a concrete pad out of it.
     
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