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Toshi's thread

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by Toshi, Apr 20, 2002.

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  1. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    How long until the little one can get off the supplemental oxygen?
     

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  2. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    She’s on a tiny amount but dips if not on it. Could be a few months yet, and she’ll see a pulmonologist if she’s still on it two months from now.
     
  3. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    #8123 -   Feb 3, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  4. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    @jimmydean didn't you work as a tow truck driver early on? Those stingers that adjust to the orientation of the car are cool. See when they pick up the Sonata the second time after dragging it out of its spot, one wheel spinning backwards because of the diff.

    Much of my current YouTube consumption these days is tow videos from gtoger (like this one) and the Lock Picking Lawyer doing what he does.
     
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  5. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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  6. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Little babies are so weird looking. She was unhappy in her chair but is content on my belly.
     
  7. dan-o

    dan-o Turbo Monkey

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    Those tow vids are great.
     
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  8. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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  9. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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  10. jimmydean

    jimmydean The Official Meat of Ridemonkey

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    Yes, yes I did. I worked for a legit company, we didn't do parking lots or repos. We were on rotation for police calls, so I did a lot of DUI and no insurance tows when on call, that sucked. But I was also salary, so no incentive to jack the bill up.

    I drove a wheel lift built for winch recovery, so I didn't have the cool stinger. We had a couple in the fleet for light duty stuff, though.

    I will have to check out that channel. :rofl:
     
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  11. Pesqueeb

    Pesqueeb bicycle in airplane hangar

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    Saw the mock up in november at the LA auto show. Despite my aversion to all things VW, would consider the van.




    FTFY
     
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  12. Pesqueeb

    Pesqueeb bicycle in airplane hangar

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  13. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Husqvarna has had one, too. But agreed, too expensive for now.

    In another recurring theme, auto lending trends:

    https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2...-and-payments-reach-for-the-sky/#more-1660190

    Jan 2019 stats are of 69.1 month average term, 6.19% average APR, 12.3% paying over 10% APR, only 3% paying 0%.

    I have two recent loans (Oct and Dec 2018): 65 months @ 3.49%, 72 months @ 3.99%. I guess those rates aren’t that bad after all given the context! Back in 2015 the same credit union doing 3.49% now was doing 1.24% for a comparable vehicle…
     
  14. Pesqueeb

    Pesqueeb bicycle in airplane hangar

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    :shocked:
     
  15. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    Never underestimate the stupidity of the American consumer.

    Isn't that how that saying goes?
     
  16. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    This is the coolest lock and key I’ve ever seen. Near the end of the video he shows the key for a prototype where it’s even more complex.
     
  17. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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  18. CBJ

    CBJ Turbo Monkey

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  19. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I will await the Consumer Reports review. I agree that random pattern mowing seems less than ideal.
     
  20. canadmos

    canadmos Mater Slayer

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    I haven't watched that youtube guy, but have you watched Bosnianbill? Some cool locks on there.

    Shocking how easy it is to pick or break some of them...
     
  21. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Haven’t watched him, but he’s referenced by LPL. LPL has a “naughty bucket” series where LPL picks locks that stymied Bosnian Bill.
     
  22. 6thElement

    6thElement Schrodinger's Immigrant

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    I've had a roomba vacuum sitting in its box for a few years since NYC, I should hurry up and sell it.

    The step in the middle of our current main area means it's not worthwhile...
     
  23. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Winter Park snow stake over 10” at the moment.
     
  24. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Powder is good, but not when accompanied by no visibility, -7F, and howling winds. I did not enjoy today all that much despite getting some knee deep stashes.

    I also had some range anxiety. Ended up with 50 miles range, 18% state of charge. The extremely cold weather and extensive driving on snow didn’t help the range, and neither did the use of hot air defrosting for the front windshield. On the way back the range indicator was showing the snowflake symbol (for a too-cold pack that can’t give its full range) until about Empire. This would all be solved by a Supercharger in Idaho Springs, which is planned.

    It was so cold that icy shit was adhering to the windshield in wide swathes on the drive up. I had to use a ton of washer fluid. Some schmoe in a Ford Fusion ahead of me was reaching out his window and around the A pillar with a rag while driving on the freeway. Needless to say he was not staying centered in his lane.

    Even back in Denver it was too cold for my local automatic car wash to be open, so I left the still-charging Tesla in the garage and took the PacHy to rehearsal tonight. The PacHy has been in Fuel and Oil Refresh Mode since a day or two ago:

    https://www.autoblog.com/2018/10/10/2018-chrysler-pacifica-hybrid-long-term-update-fuel-oil-refresh/

    This mode means the gas engine runs 100% of the time. This both uses gas much, much more quickly than our usual fuel up every few months rate (which is the point of it, to burn stale gas) and highlights that the PacHy’s power train is significantly smoother in electric only mode.

    There’s a weird slight clunking feeling when going between coasting and light acceleration when in gas only mode, which is odd given that that’s just spinning up one of the motor-generators a bit faster given the transmission’s design.

    Go figure. Now it has a new, full tank of gas and is back in smooth electric mode as it should be.
     
  25. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Lifetime to date stats for the 2019 PacHy snapped at the gas station tonight. The economy number is some weird blended thing Chrysler does. Don’t see much use in that but the gas vs electric miles readout is the important bit.

    Recall that we got it at the very end of November 2018 so this represents the worst case with regard to gas usage—gas engine runs for warmth even with charge in the battery once it gets sufficiently cold. 20 degrees? Not sure exactly but a winter-only issue.
     
  26. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I test drove a Model S today, and now am doubting whether I’ll do anything at all car-wise.

    Why no Model S:

    Why no Performance 3:

    Hopping back in my 3 after the test drive was nice. Roomier feeling despite being a smaller vehicle, more spritely around town vs the heavy feeling P100D I drove, better sightlines.
     
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  27. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I realized this might not be a deal killer for me and other erstwhile Colorado 3-traders… because Tesla is known to match other quotes, namely from CarMax.

    Carmax.com wouldn't give me an instant quote, but for the price of going in (within 7 days of a Tesla deal) they'll provide a written quote. I called up KBB in the interim as an alternate source of data:





    For reference points to these numbers above, if I get a trade offer of $49,136 then inclusive of the use tax I'd pay twice (on the depreciation of the original purchase) it would cost me $0 to have owned the current Model 3. Hard to beat that depreciation. Amounts above that magic $49,136 breakeven point would net me profit to the tune of (X - $49,136) * 1.081 where X is the trade-in value, with the multiplier supra 1.0 because I'd be paying less tax on the lesser amount of depreciation.

    On the other hand, these KBB values may well be whack, since the private party values are above MSRP + destination - Federal tax credit. Either way it'll be worth an hour of my time around May or so, or whenever I pay down the Tesla's loan by the state + local tax credit amounts and am ready to play ball in earnest.
     
  28. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    While withdrawing some monies from Betterment tonight (expensive month I have had, and balancing the books is why I keep my "slush fund" money in there) I checked on its performance. Turns out I've been using it for just over 4 years. Without gauche divulging of specifics, here's some performance info over the period during which I've had skin in the game using their platform, Jan 15, 2015-Feb 7, 2019 (I guess their stats lag by a day):



    Note use of time-weighted returns. Don't fall for the fallacy of including one's added contributions in the gains.

    Anyway, context: 8.5% over that period of time works out to be a 31.5% gain cumulatively. But again, how does that compare to the market as a whole? Here's how VTI did over that same period:



    That works out to be a 31.6% cumulative gain. So not bad, Betterment: essentially matching the 100% stock VTI index using a 75% stock portfolio. But that's not all, because as my 2014 post about Betterment explained one of the big draws to it is automatic tax loss harvesting:



    So over this period of time Betterment's 75% stock portfolio came within 0.1% of matching VTI (a 100% stock index), and it harvested me almost $4k in tax losses, which ultimately are worth that value * (marginal income tax rate - long term capital gains rate) + time value of the harvested money over whatever period elapses between the harvest and final sale at which the capital gains are realized. Whew, that's a mouthful.

    Verdict: Betterment gets a thumbs up from me with this assessment of its performance. I shall stay the course.



    Edit: management fees above low fund fees totaled $158 over this period. Compare to the amount harvested for tax losses: clearly worth it.
     
    #8148 -   Feb 8, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
  29. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    This is a fantastic video series. The earlier episodes look at earlier approaches to self driving but this one is the meat of it until the as of yet uncovered post-DARPA Challenge era that we live in now.

     
  30. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Meh.
     
  31. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Unclear if autobrake or good reaction. Given that the brakes were applied 100% I suspect the former.
     
  32. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    This casts serious doubts in my mind regarding Tesla being able to offer Full Self Driving (caps as that’s their proper term for it) any time soon. It’s very far from a 100% solution now even in good weather on well marked roads.
     
  33. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    https://winterdrive.com/

    Steamboat! I would like to do Second or Third Gear (and then Fourth) at some point. I’ll have to see if I can break away for this this year what with my constrained schedule due to the kiddo.
     
  34. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

    Doesn't work on mobile. Interesting visualization of what climates in individual cities will feel like based off of an average of 27 models of climate change.
     
  35. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Betterment turned on 1099-B and -DIV importation into TurboTax today, so I was finally able to file my Federal and CO taxes. What's pretty cool is that TurboTax e-filed my Federal return at 7:59 PM, and at 8:20 PM I got another email saying it had already been accepted.

    2017 effective tax rate was 18.94%, including one EV tax credit.

    2018 effective tax rate was 12.79%, but that included two EV tax credits. It'd be just shy of 15% with one credit if I'm doing the math right, and I'm not sure that I am since I can't exactly reproduce TurboTax's reported effective rates with what they provided.

    Net result is that I should have a bit over $30k coming back to me. This would normally be where I'd be chastised for giving the government an interest-free loan, but 0% actually soundly beats the DJIA's -3.48% 2018 return!
     
  36. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Back when I rode a motorcycle I had heated gloves and jacket. These plugged in to the bike.

    I'm kind of tempted to get this to try out for bike commuting and skiing. It takes the same 18V batteries as the rest of my Makita tools...

    https://www.makitatools.com/product...il&utm_term=0_653957b024-e8f7790cf4-206636385



    The battery goes in one's pocket. With a 4 Ah battery it'd run for 3.5 hours on high, 5.5 hours on medium. There are apparently two 6 Ah options as well but that's getting to be a big chunk of plastic up against one's back, plus I only have 1.5 Ah and 4 Ah batteries, I believe.
     
  37. roflbox

    roflbox roflborx

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    the only correct shade of teal

    also
    those 4ah batteries have some heft to them
     
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  38. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Yeah, I wonder how it'd wear with that blob in a back pocket. But I may try it nonetheless.
     
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  39. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    One of the cars in the employee garage at work has a fucking QAnon sticker on it.

    Idiots.

    My only consolation is that they were parked incorrectly in the section where I park, without a permit. This implies they're hourly staff, and not an idiot doctor, all though I'm sure those exist. (In Florida, of course.)
     
  40. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I just bought a lock pick set and an acrylic lock to see how they work. Under $7 shipped from Hong Kong. That’s really amazing that they’re that cheap even shipped halfway around the world.
     
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