[Toshi]

Did you notify the authorities that one of poors used your lot?

I considered it, but they were gone today. The parking people are also absurdly unresponsive, both for complaints like this and for access issues.

The permit side of the lot has a given number of permits issued at one time. The catch is that many of them are not in active use, perhaps issued to someone who spends 90% of their time at another hospital. Simultaneously we have a bunch of faculty here who started the year after me and thereafter who currently just have spots in the other, very far off lots.

The hospital and my department keep on trying to get the parking people to release more permits, as we're probably only at 60% capacity on weekdays, but they refuse.

 

[Toshi]

A level-headed overview of the various options going forward for US health care:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/opinion/sunday/medicare-for-all-universal-health-care.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

[Toshi]

Past and present vehicular interests in my work garage this morning. The blue tag on the Alien-maw Lexus denotes the permit side, also evidenced by the red-lettered sign in front of the Tesla.

Yuna learning how chess pieces are allowed to move. My dad is wearing a mask due to a cough given that we have the baby in the house. Yes, he hasn't been taking care of himself very well.

 

[Toshi]

Great footage here. Smooth arcs carved and the head and shoulders so stable in the turns.

 

[Toshi]

Plopping this here for posterity. 2/19/19 quotes:

>>>>>

"I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year," Musk said. "Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

"However," he added, "people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case."

In addition, the speed at which the technology makes it into the hands of customers depends on what regulators will allow, Musk added.

However within two years, the technology ought to be there for cars to operate without any help from a driver at all.

"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year," he said. "That is when I think it would be safe enough for that."

 

[dan-o]

Plopping this here for posterity. 2/19/19 quotes:

>>>>>

"I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year," Musk said. "Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

"However," he added, "people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case."

In addition, the speed at which the technology makes it into the hands of customers depends on what regulators will allow, Musk added.

However within two years, the technology ought to be there for cars to operate without any help from a driver at all.

"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year," he said. "That is when I think it would be safe enough for that."

What's your take on the tech as currently available to the consumer?

 

[Toshi]

What's your take on the tech as currently available to the consumer?

Adaptive cruise control with stop and go is fantastic.

Autosteer systems are a mixed bag. There are the technical issues as below but also the behavioral issue of them egging the driver on to zone out. I am a good boy and don't play with my phone or other stupid shit, but I've definitely caught my gaze wandering (hey look at those shingles on that house! I wonder if the albedo or the roof pitch has more to do with why there's no snow there... oh wait, I'm supposed to be looking ahead) when on it.

Volvo's (more accurately, Mobileye's) system wasn't very good and had the sin of not disengaging when one fought against it.

Tesla's (in-house AP2.5 system; AP1 was Mobileye) is better. It's 90% there on the freeway, but still chirps for immediate driver attention in changing light conditions. It is 0% there on snowy roads with obscured lines. It can't handle tight turns without being super jerky and timid. It tends to jam on the brakes now and then when it detects a phantom car intruding on the lane, and will occasionally abort an automatic lane change because it gets spooked.

I think Musk's timeline is too ambitious, unless he's talking about a very limited subset of what driving actually is, like well marked highway trips in California. Having red light and stop sign detection and some intelligent way of the car handling interactions there would be nice, though, even if it couldn't drive me to the mountains. Not sure I'd pay up for just that incremental improvement if it's not a 100% system.

 

[Nick]

Adaptive cruise control with stop and go is fantastic.

My rental over the last 5 weeks has this, it's awesome. I'm not at all intrested in disconnected driving but the adaptive cruise proved very convenience.

 

[dan-o]

My rental over the last 5 weeks has this, it's awesome. I'm not at all intrested in disconnected driving but the adaptive cruise proved very convenience.

What'd you rent?

I love idea of adaptive cruise, especially with stop and go, but am meh about the rest.
I'm not in market for new vehicle for a while so hopefully ford's game will improve by then.
My buddies raptor drives like a texting drunk getting a BJ when on auto-cruise or lane assist. It's pretty frightening.

 

[Nick]

What'd you rent?

I love idea of adaptive cruise, especially with stop and go, but am meh about the rest.
I'm not in market for new vehicle for a while so hopefully ford's game will improve by then.
My buddies raptor drives like a texting drunk getting a BJ when on auto-cruise or lane assist. It's pretty frightening.

they gave me a new QX80 [/monocole] technically it's "Intelligent Cruise Control", not adaptive. All it does is keep & adjust intervals with other traffic. I cruise at say, 80mph. If someone moves into my lane it will lift/brake if needed to not ride their ass, then get back up to speed once they're out of the way.

 

[canadmos]

Adaptive cruise control with stop and go is fantastic.

Autosteer systems are a mixed bag. There are the technical issues as below but also the behavioral issue of them egging the driver on to zone out. I am a good boy and don't play with my phone or other stupid shit, but I've definitely caught my gaze wandering (hey look at those shingles on that house! I wonder if the albedo or the roof pitch has more to do with why there's no snow there... oh wait, I'm supposed to be looking ahead) when on it.

Volvo's (more accurately, Mobileye's) system wasn't very good and had the sin of not disengaging when one fought against it.

Tesla's (in-house AP2.5 system; AP1 was Mobileye) is better. It's 90% there on the freeway, but still chirps for immediate driver attention in changing light conditions. It is 0% there on snowy roads with obscured lines. It can't handle tight turns without being super jerky and timid. It tends to jam on the brakes now and then when it detects a phantom car intruding on the lane, and will occasionally abort an automatic lane change because it gets spooked.

I think Musk's timeline is too ambitious, unless he's talking about a very limited subset of what driving actually is, like well marked highway trips in California. Having red light and stop sign detection and some intelligent way of the car handling interactions there would be nice, though, even if it couldn't drive me to the mountains. Not sure I'd pay up for just that incremental improvement if it's not a 100% system.

Have you tried Cadillac's system?

 

[6thElement]

Adaptive cruise ftw, we've had it with our Subaru for the last 4 years. Pickup just has regular cruise

 

[Toshi]

Have you tried Cadillac's system?

I have not tried Super Cruise. Its driver monitoring system sounds far better than the "touch wheel periodically" system everyone else uses.

 

[Toshi]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/02/22/this-fast-food-drive-through-person-taking-your-order-might-not-be-person-all/?utm_term=.ba4b5f58bc4d

The robots are coming. Eventually they'll be able to do my job, too. Then I guess my job will be to reboot it periodically and try it nao?

 

[Toshi]

A little more ground clearance would have been nice today.

 

[Toshi]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/24/opinion/income-inequality-upper-middle-class.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The tide has not lifted all boats equally. We all should be outraged at the 0.01% running amok.

 

[Westy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/24/opinion/income-inequality-upper-middle-class.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The tide has not lifted all boats equally. We all should be outraged at the 0.01% running amok.

Trickle down for the win!

 

[Toshi]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/opinion/sunday/venezuela-bitcoin-inflation-cryptocurrencies.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

On the utility of Bitcoin in Venezuela.

 

[Pesqueeb]

I love idea of adaptive cruise, especially with stop and go, but am meh about the rest.

they gave me a new QX80 [/monocole] technically it's "Intelligent Cruise Control", not adaptive. All it does is keep & adjust intervals with other traffic. I cruise at say, 80mph. If someone moves into my lane it will lift/brake if needed to not ride their ass, then get back up to speed once they're out of the way.

Teh Mazda has adaptive cruise and it's amazing. I would be hard pressed to buy another car with old fashioned dumb cruise. I do not recall for certain, but I do not believe the mazda will do full stop and go from highway speeds. I have had it once do some pretty damn aggressive breaking/emergency warning idiot light when we got cut off on the freeway, but we did not come to a full stop. It also has a full auto stop-pre collision feature at less then 15mph (maybe 10?) I forget what mazda calls that. Have never used that particular feature.

Edit: So the new ones come with stop and go cruise. Maybe I should read the manual on ours.

 

[Toshi]

Re @Nick and cruise control naming, you're not alone:

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/aaa-recommends-standardized-adas-names/

AAA found 40 unique marketing names for automatic emergency braking, 19 different names for lane keeping assistance, and 20 names for adaptive cruise control.

As for whether it does stop and go Infiniti's own site is super unclear. This forum post suggests that at least on another Infiniti model it does handle stop and go: will come to a complete stop, go on its own if the stop is less than 3 seconds, and resume after that point if you hit the Resume button.

https://www.infinitiq50.org/forum/q50-general-discussion-forum/117649-intelligent-cruise-control.html

>>>>>

I looked into which vehicles had stop and go adaptive cruise last winter and this was my final product (which didn't look at Infiniti), noting that many lists such as those by cars.com totally don't get the stop and go business--see Grand Cherokee as an example:

Mainstream cars with confirmed stop and go-capable adaptive cruise control

A subset of the list in this post. I’m not going to cover all marques: Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tesla, and Volvo are not included, in particular, and have many models with stop and go.

Honda/Acura
Civic, CR-V, 2018 Accord, MDX, TLX, RLX

Toyota/Lexus
2018 Camry, C-HR, Prius +/- Prime, NX, RX, GS, LC, LX

FCA
Pacifica +/- Hybrid, 300, Giulia, Stelvio, Charger, Cherokee, Grand Cherokee, Durango

Ford/Lincoln
Fusion, Expedition, F-150, Continental, MKZ, Navigator

Hyundai/Genesis/Kia
G80, G90, Sonata, Azera, Elantra GT, Ioniq Electric, Optima, Sorento, K900, Cadenza

Mazda
CX-5

Nissan
LEAF and Rogue with ProPILOT Assist

Subaru
Legacy, Outback

Vokkswagen
Golf +/- Sportwagen, CC, Touareg

 

[Toshi]

 

[Pesqueeb]

Re @Nick and cruise control naming, you're not alone:

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/aaa-recommends-standardized-adas-names/



As for whether it does stop and go Infiniti's own site is super unclear. This forum post suggests that at least on another Infiniti model it does handle stop and go: will come to a complete stop, go on its own if the stop is less than 3 seconds, and resume after that point if you hit the Resume button.

https://www.infinitiq50.org/forum/q50-general-discussion-forum/117649-intelligent-cruise-control.html

>>>>>

I looked into which vehicles had stop and go adaptive cruise last winter and this was my final product (which didn't look at Infiniti), noting that many lists such as those by cars.com totally don't get the stop and go business--see Grand Cherokee as an example:

Mainstream cars with confirmed stop and go-capable adaptive cruise control

A subset of the list in this post. I’m not going to cover all marques: Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tesla, and Volvo are not included, in particular, and have many models with stop and go.

Honda/Acura
Civic, CR-V, 2018 Accord, MDX, TLX, RLX

Toyota/Lexus
2018 Camry, C-HR, Prius +/- Prime, NX, RX, GS, LC, LX

FCA
Pacifica +/- Hybrid, 300, Giulia, Stelvio, Charger, Cherokee, Grand Cherokee, Durango

Ford/Lincoln
Fusion, Expedition, F-150, Continental, MKZ, Navigator

Hyundai/Genesis/Kia
G80, G90, Sonata, Azera, Elantra GT, Ioniq Electric, Optima, Sorento, K900, Cadenza

Mazda
CX-5

Nissan
LEAF and Rogue with ProPILOT Assist

Subaru
Legacy, Outback

Vokkswagen
Golf +/- Sportwagen, CC, Touareg

Killed an hour I had waiting for daughter in violin practice kicking tires at a local Toyota dealer. Sales guy claims as of next year stop-go cruise will be available in Tacoma's. I presume other models as well but I did not ask.

 

[Toshi]

Killed an hour I had waiting for daughter in violin practice kicking tires at a local Toyota dealer. Sales guy claims as of next year stop-go cruise will be available in Tacoma's. I presume other models as well but I did not ask.

He's wrong per Toyota's own press release:

https://pressroom.toyota.com/releases/2020+toyota+tacoma+positioned+to+continue+segment+leadership+with+host+of+new+upgrades.htm

Toyota Safety Sense P (TSS-P), standard on every Tacoma grade, includes Pre-Collision System with Pedestrian Detection, Lane Departure Alert with Sway Warning System, Automatic High Beams and High-Speed Dynamic Radar Cruise Control (DRCC).

In keeping with the point of the post you quoted, Toyota has two confusingly named systems:

Dynamic Radar Cruise Control, or High-Speed Dynamic Radar Cruise Control as they put it in the PR, is their system that turns off with a beep at about 20 or 25 mph. It was on an Avalon I rented last winter while carless.

Their stop and go capable variant is Full-Speed (+/- Range) Dynamic Radar Cruise Control. See footnote here: https://www.toyota.com/safety-sense/discover/feature/drcc

[Full Speed DRCC] Available On: Avalon, Avalon Hybrid, Camry, Camry Hybrid, C-HR, Corolla Hatchback, Prius, Prius Prime

They've added a few cars since my post (Avalon, redone Corolla Hatch) but note no Tacoma. (And no Land Cruiser.)

 

[Toshi]

Tesla launches 220 mile range, $35k-before-incentives base RWD Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/

@Pesqueeb : effective price of ~$26,250 (with TTL on the $35k) for something that should beat the pants off of a Mini-E or LEAF E+...

 

[Toshi]

2/19/19 quotes:

"I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year," Musk said. "Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

Tesla launches 220 mile range, $35k-before-incentives base RWD Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/

Relevant to both of these is another change made today coincident with the $35k-before-incentives intro:

For those not immersed in the cult this won't mean much out of context, so here's said context:

What I paid $5k for in December 2018 was Enhanced Autopilot (EAP). EAP == Traffic Aware Cruise Control, Autosteer, Navigate on Autopilot (added as an OTA update), Autopark, Summon. I've never used the last two features and Navigate on Autopilot is mostly a gimmick at this point, IMO.

Now EAP has been parceled down and they're selling (non-Enhanced) Autopilot for $3k instead: AP == TACC and Autosteer. That's it.

Meanwhile Full Self Driving, which is an extra $5k on top of the $3k for non-E AP, has Navigate on Autopilot, Autopark, and a potentially beefed up version of Summon... and the promise that "coming later this year" it'll do more with regard to signage and city driving.

My verdict remains: I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime if I swap Model 3s I'll be going with non-E AP.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

Tesla launches 220 mile range, $35k-before-incentives base RWD Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/

@Pesqueeb : effective price of ~$26,250 (with TTL on the $35k) for something that should beat the pants off of a Mini-E or LEAF E+...

https://electrek.co/2019/02/26/tesla-model-x-mysterious-burning-fire-frozen-lake/

 

[Pesqueeb]

Tesla launches 220 mile range, $35k-before-incentives base RWD Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/

@Pesqueeb : effective price of ~$26,250 (with TTL on the $35k) for something that should beat the pants off of a Mini-E or LEAF E+...

Relevant to both of these is another change made today coincident with the $35k-before-incentives intro:

For those not immersed in the cult this won't mean much out of context, so here's said context:

What I paid $5k for in December 2018 was Enhanced Autopilot (EAP). EAP == Traffic Aware Cruise Control, Autosteer, Navigate on Autopilot (added as an OTA update), Autopark, Summon. I've never used the last two features and Navigate on Autopilot is mostly a gimmick at this point, IMO.

Now EAP has been parceled down and they're selling (non-Enhanced) Autopilot for $3k instead: AP == TACC and Autosteer. That's it.

Meanwhile Full Self Driving, which is an extra $5k on top of the $3k for non-E AP, has Navigate on Autopilot, Autopark, and a potentially beefed up version of Summon... and the promise that "coming later this year" it'll do more with regard to signage and city driving.

My verdict remains: I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime if I swap Model 3s I'll be going with non-E AP.

I am intrigued, though I still very much would prefer AWD. I too noticed the change in autopilot features on teslas website. Radar cruise is good enough for me, especially given teh "coming soon" nature of the more advanced features. Guess we'll see what changes in the next 18 or so months before I actually start other car shopping.

 

[Toshi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-01/epic-vs-ikon-battle-for-the-best-ski-pass

Nothing that us locals don’t know but interesting for the people and background.

 

[Toshi]

I’m charging at the Winter Park town garage at the moment. Remembered to bring along the Tesla to J1772 adapter this time.

Even last time in the worst of conditions (-7, recall) I made it home with 18% remaining having started at 90%. Today I started at 100% and will sneak an hour of charging in so will have no range anxiety at all.

I figured if I was otherwise going to sit in the Mary Jane lodge for an hour on my phone, might as well sit in my warm car while it percolates on the charger here instead.

Update: got home with 130 miles of range showing. (Started with 310.) No anxiety.

 

[Toshi]

Autopilot fail. Happy to “Take Over Immediately” in an instant, and not even bad road conditions to blame.

Edit: obscured right lane marker probably did it. And, in its defense, EAP isn’t designed for this kind of road. Still not a graceful failure mode with the immediate dump of control to me.

 

[Toshi]

After atrocious crowds today I may be done with skiing this season. Certainly done on the weekends—might trek up for kids lessons but won’t gear up myself.

 

[Toshi]

Tesla launches 220 mile range, $35k-before-incentives base RWD Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/

@Pesqueeb : effective price of ~$26,250 (with TTL on the $35k) for something that should beat the pants off of a Mini-E or LEAF E+...

A quick exercise in arithmetic:

Nissan LEAF SL PLUS (chosen because that’s the trim you need to get ProPILOT):

$42,550 + $895 destination - $7,500 Federal tax credit - $5,000 CO tax credit == $30,945 + TTL on the full $43.5k, so $34,420.

For that you get a Mobileye driver assist system less effective than Autopilot, FWD, hatchback, 0-60 around 7 seconds. 100 kW fast charging, but CHAdeMO so not super common. 226 mile rated range. Leather inside and heated seats and steering wheel.

Tesla Model 3 Standard + AP:

$35,000 + $3,000 for AP + $1200 destination - $3,750 Federal tax credit - $5,000 CO tax credit == $29,250 + TTL on the full $38k, so $32,290. Kicking that to a Standard Plus + AP takes the net cost to $34,450.

So warm-weather states can have a net cost of $2k less, and cold-weather states can get their precious heated seats (and power-adjusting pleather instead of manually adjusting cloth) for the same net price as the LEAF. 0-60 in 5.6 or 5.3 for the Standard or Standard Plus variants, RWD, a more capable (but certainly not perfect) driver assist system, 125 kW Supercharging, 220/240 mile range.

Unless one lives in a Tesla service desert, really needs a (small) hatchback over a sedan, or has some vendetta against Tesla I can’t see why anyone would pick a LEAF PLUS over a Model 3 at this point.

 

[Toshi]

Long baby is a looong baby somehow. Adjusted for being 6 weeks early she's now about 50th percentile weight, 80th percentile length (!), and 40th percentile for head circumference. I bet they're undermeasuring her thick skull.

 

[Toshi]

Not impressed with the performance of my Evo SS gimbal/Hero5 Black combo today. Both crapped out at various times. The worst was the gimbal deciding to not stabilize when I dropped into a bowl, perhaps the only video-worthy footage (but instead of bouncing shots of my arm and the sky at a 45 degree angle).

 

[SkaredShtles]

Not impressed with the performance of my Evo SS gimbal/Hero5 Black combo today. Both crapped out at various times. The worst was the gimbal deciding to not stabilize when I dropped into a bowl, perhaps the only video-worthy footage (but instead of bouncing shots of my arm and the sky at a 45 degree angle).

I don't need people seeing my ineptitude on video...

 

[Toshi]

I don't need people seeing my ineptitude on video...

You got away too quickly from me as I was futzing with the gimbal and all at the top of runs anyway.

 

[Toshi]

Mercedes-Benz EQV. First image is a rendering merging the EQC's front end with the V Class, more or less. Much less weird. Claimed 2022 or before–unclear if US market.

Concept EQV unveiled:

https://insideevs.com/mercedes-benz-eqv-long-range-concept-mpv/ among other coverage. 100 kWh pack (!) yielding 249 miles of range. 201 hp, FWD. Unspecified quick charging capability is present, presumably CCS ~150 kW or so given the time quoted.

I, or rather my wife, could definitely dig it as a non-Model X replacement for the PacHy.

 

[Pesqueeb]

I don't need people seeing my ineptitude on video...

You got away too quickly from me as I was futzing with the gimbal and all at the top of runs anyway.

I probably almost caused a slide yesterday rolling my eyes at the assclown who was coming down under the lift, shouting at his go-pro "Go pro start recording!" over and over..

 

[SkaredShtles]

I probably almost caused a slide yesterday rolling my eyes at the assclown who was coming down under the lift, shouting at his go-pro "Go pro start recording!" over and over..

If I owned one of those things, I'd program it to only start recording if someone said, "FUCKING START RECORDING YOU GIGANTIC PIECE OF TECHNOLOGICAL SHIT!!"

 

[Toshi]

So I’m not super pleased with my powder skis, 190 cm Moment Bibby if you haven’t been following along. 118 mm underfoot. This review is of one generation older, but the shape seems similar but not the exact dimensions:

https://blisterreview.com/gear-reviews/2013-2014-moment-bibby-pro

I guess I should be more specific: The Bibbys are fantastic in deep powder. They float well, I can muscle them around, they’re fun.

The problem is that even on a 19”-over-24 hours day like yesterday the time I’m actually in deep powder is maybe 10% of my day, and for the rest of the day I’d rather be on something more like my Mantras.

I don’t feel comfortable at speed on the Bibbys, I have to work hard to get them to carve a turn instead of smearing, and they don’t feel settled in a straight line in general. I really was being left behind on all the transition sections by Shared Skittles yesterday because I wasn’t comfortable going faster than I was.

Thoughts? @Nick @SkaredShtles @Full Trucker ? I guess I could keep them around for future cat/heli skiing shenanigans, but otherwise I am leaning towards SS’s “one 106ish mm ski to rule them all” philosophy for the conditions we actually get here.