Toshi's thread
- Thread starter Toshi
- Start date
On the relative value of the mortgage interest deduction:
I have been mulling this issue over in my head since the new tax laws were passed, but finally grew sufficiently bored today to crunch the numbers. The issue is of the relative value of the mortgage interest deduction.
The conventional wisdom was that the value of the deduction is:
Effective mortgage interest rate = Nominal mortgage interest rate * (1 - marginal income tax rate)
This is only true if one would itemize rather than taking the standard deduction even without accounting for mortgage interest. In the era of the 2018 tax law, however, the circumstances where this would be true are vanishingly rare due to both the standard deduction being increased markedly and the SALT deduction being capped at $10k.
The formula that I derived that accounts for this scenario only takes the marginal increase over the standard deduction into account--if one itemized but only just reached the same amount as the standard deduction then the effective mortgage interest rate should be equal to the nominal mortgage interest rate. The formula that I came up with, again for the scenario where one would not itemize were it not for mortgage interest:
Effective mortgage interest rate = Nominal mortgage interest rate * (1 - (marginal rate * (itemized deductions - standard deduction) / mortgage interest paid))
I lay out how this plays out in reality with my numbers from 2017 and 2018 tax returns. In 2017, in anticipation of the new law, I paid both 2017 and 2018 property taxes so I backed out one of those sets of taxes to make it like a normal pre-2018 year.
Cliffs Notes: In 2017 my nominally 3.875% mortgage had an effective rate of 2.596%. In 2018 that same mortgage's effective rate was 3.459%. Thanks,Obama^H Trump.
Edit 6/24: Revised/fixed formula. New effective rate for my 3.875% mortgage is 3.459%.
I have been mulling this issue over in my head since the new tax laws were passed, but finally grew sufficiently bored today to crunch the numbers. The issue is of the relative value of the mortgage interest deduction.
The conventional wisdom was that the value of the deduction is:
Effective mortgage interest rate = Nominal mortgage interest rate * (1 - marginal income tax rate)
This is only true if one would itemize rather than taking the standard deduction even without accounting for mortgage interest. In the era of the 2018 tax law, however, the circumstances where this would be true are vanishingly rare due to both the standard deduction being increased markedly and the SALT deduction being capped at $10k.
The formula that I derived that accounts for this scenario only takes the marginal increase over the standard deduction into account--if one itemized but only just reached the same amount as the standard deduction then the effective mortgage interest rate should be equal to the nominal mortgage interest rate. The formula that I came up with, again for the scenario where one would not itemize were it not for mortgage interest:
Effective mortgage interest rate = Nominal mortgage interest rate * (1 - (marginal rate * (itemized deductions - standard deduction) / mortgage interest paid))
I lay out how this plays out in reality with my numbers from 2017 and 2018 tax returns. In 2017, in anticipation of the new law, I paid both 2017 and 2018 property taxes so I backed out one of those sets of taxes to make it like a normal pre-2018 year.
Cliffs Notes: In 2017 my nominally 3.875% mortgage had an effective rate of 2.596%. In 2018 that same mortgage's effective rate was 3.459%. Thanks,
Edit 6/24: Revised/fixed formula. New effective rate for my 3.875% mortgage is 3.459%.
Last edited:
I went on a mountain bike ride today, and it was sufficiently bad that I think I will finally go seek professional help for my fatness.
It was a kind of worst case ride, of course, as I’ve been eating low-ish carb (not likely enough for ketosis but substituting out a lot of carbs) and I also just took 2.5 weeks off of the bike, first for recovery from getting snipped and then because I had no bike to ride after the bike shop discovered my Pivot has cracks in the rear triangle.
So a bit deconditioned from whatever my baseline is and also with not many carbs or short chain fatty acids or whatever the correct item is floating around due to diet.
It was awful. I normally take it slow climbing but today I frankly walked the bike up most of the climbing sections as I felt I just had nothing at all in the tank.
Circling back to the fatness bit: In high school I was probably anorexic as a wrestler always cutting weight. Since then I’ve been at first merely plump through undergrad and then slowly gaining weight with most passing years after that. I rationalized this with the thought that although I might not be climbing as fast as I might otherwise (or at the pace of the median rider) my weight wasn’t preventing me from doing any physical activities that I’d like to do (skiing, indoor climbing, mountain biking). As I have a big head and a long torso I also don’t look quite as rotund as I might with a different body shape, too, but I am inescapably fat in all truth.
Well, with this worst-case scenario ride it was definitely the case that my power to weight ratio was keeping me from riding. I don’t go out there planning to push up hills, and it’s not fun. I’m pretty sure my power is fine. It’s the weight part of the equation that’s the problem.
First step is I’ll get a primary care visit and some labwork, chem panel, LFTs, thyroid function tests. I also will press to get an echo–I am hypermobile and have been surveilled with echos in the past as some underlying causes of hypermobile joints are associated with aortic dilation and death from that, which have shown a normal LVEF but a large stroke volume and a slow heart rate (as I do exercise despite all evidence to the contrary). Then a chat with a nutritionist and maybe a referral to my hospital’s bariatric surgery department? We’ll see if the family medicine resident in clinic that I see thinks this is insane or within reason. I will be a good albeit opinionated patient.
@Nick ’s bike worked ok on Mountain Lion for what it is, for the record. It just isn’t what I’d pick. I have no complaints with it on the climbs, just with me. On the downhills, though, it required a huge change in riding style, picking lines carefully and repeating “don’t pinch flat, don’t pinch flat” to myself constantly.
I like to pick my lines based off of exit speed and straighten everything out. I couldn’t do this on the hardtail, which is different but not necessarily more fun.
My fun is in going fast over rough stuff.
I like to pick my lines based off of exit speed and straighten everything out. I couldn’t do this on the hardtail, which is different but not necessarily more fun.
My fun is in going fast over rough stuff.
As a professional (something) I suggest just ditching the e-bike and pedaling a normal one a lot.
I did a season on the 5010, too. My fitness improved (my record for unassisted parking lot to bench at White Ranch is 48 minutes) but nothing much else changed.
With the Shuttle I enjoy the experience overall much more and am more apt to get out riding regularly. It’s not a motorcycle and I sustain very similar if not higher heart rates while climbing with it… just for less time.
There are some days where you just don't have it.
Before you freak out, you should go for another ride and make sure it wasn't an aberration.
I'm "fat" (for me) and slow and walk a good portion of our uphills until the last month or so of the season anyways.
Yeah, today was bad for many reasons. But the things I listed are things I should probably do anyway. This is the kick in the butt to do them.
Apple is still in the self-driving car hunt:
https://amp.axios.com/apple-buy-driveai-753da17d-60fe-44f9-84ff-1d2d82cd0b81.html
https://amp.axios.com/apple-buy-driveai-753da17d-60fe-44f9-84ff-1d2d82cd0b81.html
Oh, man... I'm not sure there is enough popcorn in the whole world. 
Today I:
- played or rather tried to play some racquetball with my father, which turned out to be a failed enterprise as he is too fat at this point to move quickly, let alone coordinate that movement and not go headfirst into a wall (he didn't but also didn't try to get most shots)
- felt like I was drowning and burning simultaneously in a steam room at that same athletic club
- failed at moving the leg press machine at 490 lbs but was able to squeeze out 10 legit 90 degree bend reps at 390 lbs of iron so probably just pussed out with the higher weight
- billed out for 3 hours of med-legal consultation work back from May at the cool rate of $500/hr (my higher yet rates are reserved for depositions and actual trial testimony)
- edited a paper in progress on convolutional neural network use in image interpretation, adding a few references in here and there to back up my statements
- played or rather tried to play some racquetball with my father, which turned out to be a failed enterprise as he is too fat at this point to move quickly, let alone coordinate that movement and not go headfirst into a wall (he didn't but also didn't try to get most shots)
- felt like I was drowning and burning simultaneously in a steam room at that same athletic club
- failed at moving the leg press machine at 490 lbs but was able to squeeze out 10 legit 90 degree bend reps at 390 lbs of iron so probably just pussed out with the higher weight
- billed out for 3 hours of med-legal consultation work back from May at the cool rate of $500/hr (my higher yet rates are reserved for depositions and actual trial testimony)
- edited a paper in progress on convolutional neural network use in image interpretation, adding a few references in here and there to back up my statements
I just drove a quarter tank of gas out of my dad’s C5 with him navigating. Impressions are as in prior years. The car now no longer has functioning ABS or traction control due to some old computer going wonky, though, which only reared its head once when I got a bit too eager with dirty tires in first gear.
Submitted after my one co-author got back to me quickly. Growing sufficiently bored that I may have to pick up work on my Matlab modeling project that has lain fallow for a year or two.
I saw a green Lexus GX 460 with base 18” wheels on the street yesterday at Cannon Beach. That was a good, clean, masculine look for a car not associated with those traits usually.
Looking up color codes that was Peridot Mica, which was only available 2010 and 2011.
Edit: Like this:
Looking up color codes that was Peridot Mica, which was only available 2010 and 2011.
Edit: Like this:
Last edited:
Odd brand-image.
The land cruiser 150 is one of the toughest cars out there.
Yeah Prados are great. Our GXs are always sold in grey or gold all chrome encrusted to soccer moms.
I'm trying to burn off some of my vacation next summer--having a bunch of it is the side effect of taking this parental leave the current calendar year from free-to-me time and sick time.
I was super psyched to use some of this time to go on trips to what I pictured as lovely alpine campsites by clear lakes. But when one must account for the length of a travel trailer or RV and the required hookups (30-50A, water, etc.) if one doesn't want to empty tanks regularly and run a noisy generator then suddenly the list of possible docking sites is limited.
And similarly out the window goes that image. Instead it's of something like this:
15 feet away from a 75 year old couple smoking outside their Class A? Nope.
Perhaps the AirBNB/hotel and driving/flying life is the life for me after all.
I was super psyched to use some of this time to go on trips to what I pictured as lovely alpine campsites by clear lakes. But when one must account for the length of a travel trailer or RV and the required hookups (30-50A, water, etc.) if one doesn't want to empty tanks regularly and run a noisy generator then suddenly the list of possible docking sites is limited.
And similarly out the window goes that image. Instead it's of something like this:
15 feet away from a 75 year old couple smoking outside their Class A? Nope.
Perhaps the AirBNB/hotel and driving/flying life is the life for me after all.
Last edited:
With age comes wisdom...And similarly out the window goes that image. Instead it's of something like this:
15 feet away from a 75 year old couple smoking from the porch of their Class A? Nope.
Perhaps the AirBNB/hotel and driving/flying life is the life for me after all.
Service visit was then scheduled when this issue recurred and caused the car to think that it could only charge at 16A (it can take 48A and our garage's EVSE can kick out 40A, for the record).
TIL when the “chin” lock bit on the Tesla charging port gets stuck one can pull a little cable inside the trunk liner to let it slide down out of the way.
Google showed some other instances of this happening but all in the cold, as far as I could gather. My garage was probably 75 degrees.
Oh well, service visit averted.
First I had to schedule a conventional service visit, but they pre-screened the appointments, contacted me a week before said date, and converted the visit to mobile service at my home (with the replacement charging port pre-ordered by them).
This is good service.
On the other hand, my 3 is 6xxx miles old and will have had its drivers seat and charging port replaced in its short life. Not great quality control on Tesla or its suppliers' part, eh…
Saw someone post this on social media and wasn't sure if real or parody product.
https://www.kfc.com/menu/promotions/cheetos-sandwich
Answer is apparently the latter. I'm not even sure what to think of it.
Is that what Trump eats to maintain his healthy pallor?
Shitty suppliers or not, I'd blame that on Tesla. They control what comes into their assembly plants and then what leaves.
I work for an OEM supplier to all the major brands and we take great pride with shipping good parts to customers. This of course is partly because it'll cost in the long run for warranty issues and brand reputation. At the particular manufacturing plant that I work at, we inspect every single part leaving the building. Some are then tested at our customer's plants. Mistakes happen, but it is very rare. Perhaps coincidentally, our plant doesn't ship to Tesla.
Ski trip booked!
1/26/20-1/29/20 at Copper. Driving up Sunday afternoon, skiing Monday through part of Wednesday, driving back Wednesday afternoon. No mountain traffic at those times/directions ftw.
3 bedroom condo since 3 kids + mother in law tagging along as well.
I think this will be our only extended ski trip, which is just fine with me given the lodging cost. Otherwise it'll be day trips on any day of the week or Sat-Sun weekend jaunts.
1/26/20-1/29/20 at Copper. Driving up Sunday afternoon, skiing Monday through part of Wednesday, driving back Wednesday afternoon. No mountain traffic at those times/directions ftw.
3 bedroom condo since 3 kids + mother in law tagging along as well.
I think this will be our only extended ski trip, which is just fine with me given the lodging cost. Otherwise it'll be day trips on any day of the week or Sat-Sun weekend jaunts.
Shitty suppliers or not, I'd blame that on Tesla. They control what comes into their assembly plants and then what leaves.
I work for an OEM supplier to all the major brands and we take great pride with shipping good parts to customers. This of course is partly because it'll cost in the long run for warranty issues and brand reputation. At the particular manufacturing plant that I work at, we inspect every single part leaving the building. Some are then tested at our customer's plants. Mistakes happen, but it is very rare. Perhaps coincidentally, our plant doesn't ship to Tesla.
48% of new car sales in Norway are electric. Tesla is the best selling car in the country.
The future is now, old man.
Finally, a self-driving car! Or at least one not requiring me to drive it.
2019 Dodge Caravan SXT. 890 miles on the clock when we picked it up. Enterprise, picked up at OTH and to be returned to SEA.
Pros:
- worlds more practical than the Ford Transit we were stuck with last year at OTH due to smoke jumpers snagging our previously-reserved ride somehow. That thing was awful what with the low seat pitch, bolted in seats, climb up into it, and maneuverability and mileage befitting its bulk.
- 3 large pieces of luggage fit upright in the back well, behind the third row
- stow and go second row proved to be useful and is fine to sit in imo. Wife at different height finds the seat back lumpy.
- power sliding doors and rear hatch
- good passing power from the venerable Pentastar
- averaging around 25 mpg
Cons:
- moderate road noise, very variable with road surface
- mild to moderate wind noise, certainly more than on our own active noise cancellation Pacifica
- no passive entry or keyless start
- ancient infotainment, basically useless
At about $900 for a 12 day one way rental I’m totally fine with its shortcomings.
They’d have been better off with the Transit.Indeed. How dare they.
Edit: also, Enterprise isn’t in the business of judging worthiness of reasons to rent a vehicle last I checked. I had one reserved. They had nothing of the sort when I went to pick it up. If they want to go out of their way to help smoke jumpers then they should have gone out of their way to fix the mess they caused in turn.
Last edited:
Saw one of these (minus the cargo container) being transported on a lowboy trailer on our way back from Cannon Beach. The back axle was over the rear axles of the trailer and the 2nd and 3rd from back axles were flat on the lowboy's dropped section--impressive articulation.
