[Toshi]

Tesla Is Now Installing Full Self-Driving Hardware 3 Upgrade In Some Cars

The first confirmed upgrade to Tesla's new Full Self Driving hardware version 3 took place today after a customer took his 2018 Tesla Model S P100DL into the Santa Barbara service center to get a new HEPA filter. After the service, Twitterer and longtime Tesla supporter Sofiaan Fraval noticed...

cleantechnica.com

So I might get my FSD computer in a few months yet?

 

[CBJ]

Tesla Is Now Installing Full Self-Driving Hardware 3 Upgrade In Some Cars

The first confirmed upgrade to Tesla's new Full Self Driving hardware version 3 took place today after a customer took his 2018 Tesla Model S P100DL into the Santa Barbara service center to get a new HEPA filter. After the service, Twitterer and longtime Tesla supporter Sofiaan Fraval noticed...

cleantechnica.com

So I might get my FSD computer in a few months yet?

Did you pay for it already or do you pay when you get the chip upgrade. I will be interesting to see if it will live up to the hype from the Autonomous Day launch.

 

[Toshi]

Did you pay for it already or do you pay when you get the chip upgrade. I will be interesting to see if it will live up to the hype from the Autonomous Day launch.

I paid for the FSD package in March or so. That was when amidst the schizophrenic pricing changes Elon decreed that people who had already bought Enhanced Autopilot would get a 2 week period where they could upgrade to FSD-promises for $2k + tax.

So far for my outlay I have gotten precisely 0 extra hardware or software beyond my existing EAP, so this is fulfilling that order, as it were.

 

[CBJ]

Well I hope you get it soon so you don't hit anymore cars

 

[Toshi]

I'm going to repost the relevant study from The Biggest Loser, because it is a perfect example of taking "eat less move more" or the "calories in calories out" model to the extreme:

Fothergill et al. Persistent metabolic adaptation 6 years after “The Biggest Loser” competition. Obesity 2016; 24(8): 1612-1619.

PM me if you want a link to download the whole PDF if you're interested in reading the whole study instead of my excerpts from it.

Its abstract:

Objective
To measure long‐term changes in resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition in participants of “The Biggest Loser” competition.

Methods
Body composition was measured by dual energy X‐ray absorptiometry, and RMR was determined by indirect calorimetry at baseline, at the end of the 30‐week competition and 6 years later. Metabolic adaptation was defined as the residual RMR after adjusting for changes in body composition and age.

Results
Of the 16 “Biggest Loser” competitors originally investigated, 14 participated in this follow‐up study. Weight loss at the end of the competition was (mean ± SD) 58.3 ± 24.9 kg (P < 0.0001), and RMR decreased by 610 ± 483 kcal/day (P = 0.0004). After 6 years, 41.0 ± 31.3 kg of the lost weight was regained (P = 0.0002), while RMR was 704 ± 427 kcal/day below baseline (P < 0.0001) and metabolic adaptation was −499 ± 207 kcal/day (P < 0.0001). Weight regain was not significantly correlated with metabolic adaptation at the competition's end (r = −0.1, P = 0.75), but those subjects maintaining greater weight loss at 6 years also experienced greater concurrent metabolic slowing (r = 0.59, P = 0.025).

Conclusions
Metabolic adaptation persists over time and is likely a proportional, but incomplete, response to contemporaneous efforts to reduce body weight.

My translation of the abstract:

At the end of a show when the contestants exercised like mad and restricted calorie intake they had lost 58 kg mean. Impressive, no? Well, their metabolic rate also decreased by 610 kcal/day relative to pre-show/intervention baseline. Not so good.

What's even more damning of this approach is that 6 years later their metabolic rate had decreased even more, now down to 704 kcal/day from the baseline. Likely directly related to this change, the metabolic adaptation as per the title, is that of those 58 kg initially lost they regained 41 kg of it. (One dude turns out to have kept the weight off. Thirteen didn't, with 5 people within 1% of baseline weight or above it.)

This figure (that I hope works for those without journal access) shows the weight change from 30 weeks, end of the show, to 6 years, time of this study (part A). Note the one dude who went down. Everyone else went up, and the regain was largely in fat mass (part C, part B showing lean mass stayed pretty constant).

The change in resting metabolic rate over time is similarly shocking:

Check out the one dude or woman who had adjusted their metabolic rate down nearly 2000 kcal/day by the end of the show! There is some variability in how metabolic rate changed in the 6 years post-show but as a group it didn't change significantly, with the 100 kcal/day trend towards becoming even lower than it was before. Fighting against these kinds of metabolic rate changes is a Sisyphean task.

From their discussion some key quotes:

We found that despite substantial weight regain in the 6 years following participation in “The Biggest Loser”, RMR remained suppressed at the same average level as at the end of the weight loss competition. Mean RMR after 6 years was ∼500 kcal/day lower than expected based on the measured body composition changes and the increased age of the subjects.

Relevant to fasting because gastric bypass is posited to work by basically inducing near-fasting forever:

The magnitude of metabolic adaptation increased 6 years after “The Biggest Loser” competition. This was surprising given the relative stability of body weight before the follow‐up measurements compared with the substantial negative energy balance at the end of the competition which is known to further suppress RMR (15, 16). In contrast, a matched group of Roux‐en‐Y gastric bypass surgery patients who experienced significant metabolic adaptation 6 months after the surgery had no detectable metabolic adaptation after 1 year despite continued weight loss (17). It is intriguing to speculate that the lack of long‐term metabolic adaptation following bariatric surgery may reflect a permanent resetting of the body weight set‐point (18).

Regarding the success of traditional approaches in general, and how this group compares:

While most subjects experienced substantial weight regain in the 6 years since “The Biggest Loser” competition, the mean weight loss was 11.9 ± 16.8% compared with baseline and 57% of the participants maintained at least 10% weight loss. In comparison, it has been estimated that ∼20% of overweight individuals maintain at least 10% weight loss after 1 year of a weight loss program (32). Only 37% of the lifestyle intervention arm of the Diabetes Prevention Program maintained at least 7% weight loss after 3 years (33), and 27% of the intensive lifestyle intervention arm of the Look AHEAD trial maintained 10% weight loss after 8 years (34).

 

[Toshi]

I've posted about this before, but haven't seen this paper:

https://www.snowsports.org/wp-content/uploads/Wobus_etal_2017_ProjectedSkiingSnowmobiling.pdf

It models the projected length of the snowsports season across the country under varying sets of assumptions. Rockies will lose some season time but the East coast in particular is going to just be decimated.

Still probably a good idea for several reasons to not buy a mountain home or condo.

 

[rideit]

Well, yes and no, the mountains will still be a bit cooler and closer to headwaters as the lowlands bake and run out of water, so there’s that.

 

[Toshi]

Oof

 

[rideit]

 

[Toshi]

If he was trying to dry fast (no water) then that'd be super dangerous. But as long as he wasn't cachectic to begin with 30 days with water (and ideally some salts: sodium, potassium, magnesium) that should have been just fine.

 

[Toshi]

A few Tesla stories:

1) Rolling out the discounts to move hardware at the end of 3Q. End of year/4Q will see even more of a push, especially since there's the mental bit about the now-$1,875 Fed tax credit going to 0 on Jan 1, 2020.

2) The Tesla prototype that is running laps on the 'ring has 7 seats per Elon Musk. This is interesting for a few reasons:

a) They're probably going to go for a technical win by claiming fastest 7 seat electric vehicle lap time or some shit like that.

b) The prior jump seat configuration hasn't been available for a while (and couldn't be retrofitted--differences in the body pan), and was advertised as a 5 + 2 before, not 7 seats proper because the 2 were only kid sized.

c) Apparently it has a new Plaid powertrain with 3 motors. Presumably this is one front motor and one for each rear wheel. The torque vectoring possibilities with this are delicious.

 

[Toshi]

What I Found When I Crawled Under The 2020 Land Rover Defender

I just crawled under the 2020 Land Rover Defender—the unibody, independent suspension-equipped successor to a legendary body-on-frame, solid-axle off-road brute. What I saw didn’t appear to be an SUV built on a special off-road platform, but rather a machine quite similar to other vehicles in...

jalopnik.com

A pretty solid calling-out of the new Defender to be exactly the same construction as the Discovery and Range Rover, for both better and worse. (Also note the shit articulation that the author rightly also calls out late in the article.)

 

[Toshi]

How Long Do People Keep Their Cars? - iSeeCars.com

Some cars tend to be kept for longer than others. We look at the average length of ownership to see how long people hold onto their new...

www.iseecars.com

FWIW I bought my 2007 in calendar 2014, at least the first time I bought it. So the realtor who bought it initially bucked the trend.

 

[Pesqueeb]

I owned the Jeep for 18 years.

 

[Toshi]

1) Hit everything with a ton of silicone spray from the outside and no more creaks on the Pivot. I did order a nice torque wrench that goes up to the range that the pivot bolts need, though, for future use. (Already had a 5 Nm single setting one for handlebar items.)

2) On Mountain Lion this morning I somehow managed to kick a rock right up on top of the lower link. Then I used full travel. The result is that I’ll likely be becoming familiar with Pivot’s crash replacement program pricing at the end of this season.

I’ll ride this season out with this damage and will demo a large to see if that longer reach feels even better than the current 445 mm.

 

[Toshi]

I’d convert my 100 series with the appropriate kit. This is still underpowered but moving the right way.

Vintage Toyota Land Cruiser going all-electric—with a crate “V-8”

The California EV company Electric GT plans a "crate engine" for hobbyists and builders wanting to free classic cars and trucks from gas.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[Toshi]

I am going to be ambitious with my fasting goals this week:

- 42 hours Sun-Tues
- 66 hours Tues-Fri
- 42 hours Fri-Sun

That regime should break down some walls and bust me below 240.

260 was starting point on Aug 10, more or less, and 200 is when I let myself buy an e-commute + kid-transport thing. Well, if it's not in the middle of ski season, that is, or maybe even if it is so.

 

[Toshi]

In case you were wondering about whether it is wise to eat a bunch of saturated fat.

Cliffs Notes are that the carbs are the problem.

 

[Toshi]

How I Learned to Cycle Like a Dutchman

In the bike-friendly Netherlands, cyclists speed down the road without fearing cars. For an American, the prospect is thrilling—and terrifying.

www.newyorker.com

 

[Toshi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1173993213234798592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1173993213234798592&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Felectrek.co%2F

Tesla is bringing back the 5+2 seat layout option for the Model S, with slightly larger +2 rear facing seats. Until they revamp the interior to make it like the 3’s airy, open layout I still don’t care (and definitely don’t need another vehicle that can carry all 3 kids as I have 2 such suitable vehicles now!).

 

[CBJ]

We don't believe you and know you are ready to change cars at any given moment if the Excel spreadsheet points in the right direction

 

[Toshi]

We don't believe you and know you are ready to change cars at any given moment if the Excel spreadsheet points in the right direction

My mind is focused on defattening myself (15.5 hours into a 66 hour fast right now!) and deleveraging my balance sheet. Ain't nobody got time for $100k Model Ss regardless of how many motors or seats they have.

What I have planned is minimal:

- oil change for the Land Cruiser soon--exciting!
- perhaps one for the PacHy when its oil life meter tells us to do so or 1 year since buying it elapses
- when Land Cruiser AT tires wear out go back to stock diameter and accept its mall-cruiserness
- ...
- wait for the 2022ish VW ID Buzz, and trade in the Tesla on it (was to trade in PacHy as well but a long time friend out in Washington wants to buy it at that point, so might as well sell it to her)

 

[Toshi]

Not sure re timing for @Nick and @stoney with mortgage shenanigans, but I just read an article tonight that says the consensus view is for another 0.25% prime rate reduction at the next Fed meeting in about 10 days. So hold your fingers off the trigger for auto and home loans, I'd say.

As promised:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/18/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-counter-trumps-trade-war/

Benchmark rate now targeted for 1.75-2.00% from 2.00-2.25% before. Also relevant:

Only 7 of the 17 Fed leaders penciled in another rate cut this year, according to new economic forecasts released Wednesday. The rest predict rates will stay where they are – or rise.

So this could work out well in terms of what DCU is offering when I go to refinance the Tesla and PacHy after paying off the Land Cruiser at the end of October. (I'll also take a gander at the mortgage and student loan refinance rates at that time, although the fixed 3.875% and 3.25% rates I have for those debts may be tough to beat.)






Edit: for reference, today on 9/18/19, after the Fed announcement but before any rate changes percolate down to us consumers, DCU is offering:

Refinance Your Mortgage | DCU

Refinancing Mortgage programs that fit your needs with DCU service for the life of your loan.

www.dcu.org

3.24% for auto loans and refinances, up to 65 months and 120% LTV iirc
3.875% for a fixed 30 year mortgage refinance, 3.500% for 15 years, 3.250% for 10 years
3.375% for a 10/1 30 year term ARM (with 3.375% x 10 years then 4.75% x 20 years at the current index rate + margin), or 3.250% for a 5/1 30 year term ARM (3.25% x 5 years, 4.75% x 25 years)

 

[Toshi]

here are some e-bikes for the post-defattening period that’d both get me to work quicker than me on my single speed pedal bike and that would allow me to drop off 2 or 3 kids along the way. (I have schedule flexibility several days per week so this would be a thing I’d actually would be able to do.)

As I posted in the GMT I took advantage of my schedule flexibility today, and it was good. I shall do this more when I can.

Taking Mariko to her school bus stop was also a proof of concept for the cargo bike idea in general. She didn't have a pad to sit on or anything to hang onto besides my seat (when I was off the saddle and stopped) and me (when seated and pedaling along) yet did just fine. So she'd probably be super comfortable on a dedicated kid-carrying setup with a padded seat and railings to hold onto.

What was super awkward was getting on the bike once she was astride the rear rack, high stepping over the top tube (since kicking one's leg over the seated kid is neither feasible nor advisable). This suggests that step through options and centerstands are both things I should think about for a kid-carrying device.

I also paid more attention to my speeds on my single speed while riding to work after seeing her off at the bus. I climb at 10-12 mph and cruise along at 14-16 mph. Raising both of those to 18-19 mph would increase my average speed greatly, and the Bosch Performance CX mid drive with the 20 mph assist limit has 75 Nm torque, where as the Performance Speed with the 28 mph assist limit has 63 Nm torque. I still think I'd spring for the 28 mph option, but I will definitely test ride both 20 mph and 28 mph varieties when that time comes.

At the rate I'm currently shedding weight, for the record, I might hit my 200 lbs-for-e-bike mark mid winter. I'm about 17-18 lbs down since August 10.

 

[CBJ]

I would not make any prediction on what to buy in 2022 before I see the goods and this goes for both Tesla and VW they both have areas to improve on and extra relevant as my lease will run out with 2022 model releases.

 

[Toshi]

3.375% for a 10/1 30 year term ARM (with 3.375% x 10 years then 4.75% x 20 years at the current index rate + margin)

This is what DCU is currently offering. Per what I've read, ARM rates should follow the Feds funds rate, so presumably this will be 3.125% in a month or two given the funds rate cut...

@stoney your input would be appreciated here: I've forecast I can pay off all of my debts, mortgage included, within 10 years. Assuming this timeline to be accurate, is there any reason I shouldn't refinance in the next few months to DCU's 10/1 30 year term offering at its projected 3.125%ish rate? It'd be fixed for the time in which I'd actually be paying it off.

What am I missing that makes this a bad idea given the assumption that I'll have everything paid off within that 10 year time period?

 

[Atomic Dog]

the assumption that I'll have everything paid off within that 10 year time period

What's that famous Mike Tyson quote? "Everyone has a plan until Tesla unveils a new model." I might be paraphrasing here.

 

[stoney]

This is what DCU is currently offering. Per what I've read, ARM rates should follow the Feds funds rate, so presumably this will be 3.125% in a month or two given the funds rate cut...

@stoney your input would be appreciated here: I've forecast I can pay off all of my debts, mortgage included, within 10 years. Assuming this timeline to be accurate, is there any reason I shouldn't refinance in the next few months to DCU's 10/1 30 year term offering at its projected 3.125%ish rate? It'd be fixed for the time in which I'd actually be paying it off.

What am I missing that makes this a bad idea given the assumption that I'll have everything paid off within that 10 year time period?

If you are sure you can pay it off in that time range, it makes sense because it locks down a low rate for 10yrs. What's the spread on your current vs. a normal fixed (I just got 30@3.375%) vs. that 10/1 at year 10? That is where you calculate your risk if you cannot pay it off within that timeline. Your priority should be high rate down, so I'd assume that is lowest priority?
I shy away from an ARM, but I also like to lock in a low fixed when I'm talking 30yrs.

 

[Toshi]

What's that famous Mike Tyson quote? "Everyone has a plan until Tesla unveils a new model." I might be paraphrasing here.

Heh. Fair enough. I think < 10 years is very doable, though, in all honesty.

 

[Toshi]

If you are sure you can pay it off in that time range, it makes sense because it locks down a low rate for 10yrs. What's the spread on your current vs. a normal fixed (I just got 30@3.375%) vs. that 10/1 at year 10? That is where you calculate your risk if you cannot pay it off within that timeline. Your priority should be high rate down, so I'd assume that is lowest priority?
I shy away from an ARM, but I also like to lock in a low fixed when I'm talking 30yrs.

3.375% is awesome! if no points. Who did you go with? Via Costco, right?

 

[stoney]

3.375% is awesome! if no points. Who did you go with? Via Costco, right?

No pts. Total will be $1450 total refi related costs w/ no appraisal. Through Costco w/ $275 lender fee. I do end up fronting my annual insurance and 6 months property taxes, which blows though - $4000. That gets squared away within the year though, so...

 

[SkaredShtles]

We are tantalizingly close to only having 5y left on ours...

I wonder if 5/1 ARMs are retardedly low rates right now?

 

[stoney]

We are tantalizingly close to only having 5y left on ours...

I wonder if 5/1 ARMs are retardedly low rates right now?

Bankrates.com says 4.24%, but they also say 3.75% for 30fixed and I'm way below that. Do the math on an extended refi with low rate if you were to pay it down vs. riding your current loan out. If the spread is to your favor, take it.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Bankrates.com says 4.24%, but they also say 3.75% for 30fixed and I'm way below that. Do the math on an extended refi with low rate if you were to pay it down vs. riding your current loan out. If the spread is to your favor, take it.

Yeah... looks like we're not going to find any sort of 5/1 that's going to make sense... ah, well. Continue payin' da Man...

 

[stoney]

Yeah... looks like we're not going to find any sort of 5/1 that's going to make sense... ah, well. Continue payin' da Man...

We ended up with a quote about .5% less than "market". Look at the long rates too. You can always to that and hammer he payoff. Just do the damn math!

 

[SkaredShtles]

We ended up with a quote about .5% less than "market". Look at the long rates too. You can always to that and hammer he payoff. Just do the damn math!

They told me there would be no math.

 

[Toshi]

We are tantalizingly close to only having 5y left on ours...

I wonder if 5/1 ARMs are retardedly low rates right now?

DCU has 3.25% for 5/1 as per a few posts up. But that makes little sense when compared to the no-risk 3.375% that stoney snagged.

I'm definitely going to look to refinance... but after paying off the Land Cruiser at the end of October so as to lower my DTI a bit more yet. Or maybe they won't care. Hmm. Either way I'll wait at least a week or two to let the Fed funds rate cut trickle down.

 

[Nick]

30@3.375%

from whom? hook a brotha' up, yo!

 

[stoney]

from whom? hook a brotha' up, yo!

Costco Mtge. They farm you out. Pay the $ for an executive membership because it's $100 less lender fee, effectively paying for your membership. You also get to go apeshit buying paper products, long storing goods, and gas for the year at discount. And because you bot the executive membership, you actually earn cash back. And if you want a real multiplier, if you normally use cash, get a Costco Visa and use it there. Adtl cash back at the end of the year.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Costco Mtge. They farm you out. Pay the $ for an executive membership because it's $100 less lender fee, effectively paying for your membership. You also get to go apeshit buying paper products, long storing goods, and gas for the year at discount. And because you bot the executive membership, you actually earn cash back. And if you want a real multiplier, if you normally use cash, get a Costco Visa and use it there. Adtl cash back at the end of the year.

I'm almost embarrassed to admit how much our cash-back check will be this year.