[Toshi]

So at least until I get my new Apple Watch (titanium!) I may be slacking with my Strava logging, which is just fine. The mileage on my bikes won't be accurate, though...

So far this season, including the phantom ride yesterday:

- 36 mountain bike rides, although one was super short due to getting rained out, and a few were with kids
- 19 of those have involved a loop of Mountain Lion, sometimes + other things

:notbadobama:

Edit: Forgot to include the two I took on @Nick 's loaned Chromag! Only was looking through E-Bike Ride Strava activity types.

 

[Toshi]

I priced out a hitch for my Model 3 and compared it to the cost of driving the Land Cruiser.

I probably get on the order of 40-50 mountain bike rides in per year, many at Mountain Lion but some at closer in locales (few farther). So we are looking at least 2 years if there is no monetary value assigned to zoom zooming in the Tesla.

The Land Cruiser is one I'll keep indefinitely due to my emotional attachment to it (first real car purchase after getting this job offer, and I've wanted a Land Cruiser since about 1993 or so, during the straight 6, sliding 3rd row window era)

So far this season, including the phantom ride yesterday:

- 36 mountain bike rides
- 19 of those at Mountain Lion

Hmm. So my initial estimate of 40-50 rides turned out to be pretty fair (since I had a month long block where I rode twice), and I go to Mountain Lion just over half the time.

I also got a cheaper install quote for the hitch, and could save something like $50 more if I bought it on Black Friday.

But assuming I hold true to my statement of the Land Cruiser not going anywhere then the 3 is going away in 2021 or 2022. That'll be about breaking even on the hitch vs gas cost per my math above, given the number of times I ride and that not all are as far away.

I think I shall pass on the hitch for the Tesla after all.

 

[Toshi]

I broke my fast at 46 hours. Didn’t feel great all day. I shall terminate this metformin experiment.

 

[Toshi]

So I got my dad started on keto + intermittent fasting a few days after I started. I first emailed him on August 13 and I think he started soon thereafter. With that timeline as context, here's what he wrote today!

I visited [my doctor] on Monday and my Hba1c is down to normal range now, 6.1. I have lost 28 lb., and plan to lose 50 more. My blood pressure is still high at ~150 systolic but [he] thinks this will come down with more weight loss.

All in all, I feel more "light" (!!) and energetic, and knee pain both sides is pretty well gone. I think I even have a better positive mental attitude, grateful for all the luck and good things that have happened in my life.

Thank you for notifying us about this keto/intermittent fasting regime. That has really helped.

This is fantastic! He's been fat and very metabolic syndrome looking for decades, and no amount of my mom's nagging regarding eating more veggies and exercising more really budged that (because of likely profound insulin resistance going onto type 2 diabetes or at least prediabetes based off of his A1C).

 

[Toshi]

Related is an update on my progress:

Trendline is good. Goal is 230 by end of this month, 10 lbs month until I hit 200. That'd be 12.5% body fat with my lean mass, assuming I don't waste that away.

 

[Toshi]

I would very much like a PHEV AWD Sienna in my garage in place of the FCA unit, to keep the floor warm until the ID Buzz arrives at long last.

Toyota Going 'All-In' On Plug-In Hybrids, Starting with the 2021 Toyota RAV4 PHEV

Is this the return of the dearly-departed RAV4 EV?

www.thedrive.com

First to leak prior to LA is the plan for a 2021 RAV4 PHEV. No details as of yet. I'm hoping 2021 Sienna details pop out then as well, replete with a PHEV +/- i-AWD variant!

 

[Toshi]

10/10 appraisal of the Costco Finance mortgage quotes for my ZIP:

Under the jumbo limit, best deals:

- 30 year fixed, 3.625/3.630% rate/APR, $720 fees + untold title insurance + escrow
- 20 year fixed, 3.500/3.506%, $720 fees
- 15 year fixed, 3.000/3.008%, $720 fees and no better at 10 years
- 7/1 ARM, 30 year term, 3.375% initial rate, 3.786% APR (assuming reset higher), $720 fees

Over the jumbo limit at my current mortgage balance:

- 30 year fixed, 3.750/3.754%, $720
- 20 year fixed, 3.625/3.631%, $720
- 15 year fixed, 3.125/3.149%, $975 with 10 year actually worse! (3.375/3.386%)
- 7/1 at 3.750/3.960%

 

[Toshi]

10/10 appraisal of the Costco Finance mortgage quotes for my ZIP:

Under the jumbo limit, best deals:

- 30 year fixed, 3.625/3.630% rate/APR, $720 fees + untold title insurance + escrow
- 20 year fixed, 3.500/3.506%, $720 fees
- 15 year fixed, 3.000/3.008%, $720 fees and no better at 10 years
- 7/1 ARM, 30 year term, 3.375% initial rate, 3.786% APR (assuming reset higher), $720 fees

Over the jumbo limit at my current mortgage balance:

- 30 year fixed, 3.750/3.754%, $720
- 20 year fixed, 3.625/3.631%, $720
- 15 year fixed, 3.125/3.149%, $975 with 10 year actually worse! (3.375/3.386%)
- 7/1 at 3.750/3.960%

Compared some scenarios this morning:

Prepayment estimates via this: https://www.mortgagecalculator.org/calculators/what-if-i-pay-more-calculator.php

I still will wait until at least May to ensure I can front the additional cashflow for a 15 year term (and not pay extra on it until student loans + car notes done), but it looks that the best option is to not pay down to sub-jumbo but refinance to 15 years. Numbers won't be exact due to 5% year in year out not being true, and prepaying in an uneven fashion due to the above.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Monthly burn:

 

[Pesqueeb]

Monthly burn:

 

[6thElement]

What's the PI/TI reference?

Lost interest also presumes markets won't royally shit the bed during that period.

 

[SkaredShtles]

What's the PI/TI reference?

Lost interest also presumes markets won't royally shit the bed during that period.

Principal & Interest, no Taxes/Insurance

 

[Toshi]

What's the PI/TI reference?

Lost interest also presumes markets won't royally shit the bed during that period.

Yup. Timing of returns could greatly affect things. PITI without TI is principal and interest alone, no (property) taxes or (homeowners) insurance in that listed figure.

 

[Toshi]

I am biased, but I must say my baby is pretty cute indeed

 

[Toshi]

The Toyota bB Open Deck is a pickup I would totally drive:

 

[SkaredShtles]

That's not a pickup. NTTAWWT.

On second thought, MTISWWT.

 

[Toshi]

I still will wait until at least May to ensure I can front the additional cashflow for a 15 year term (and not pay extra on it until student loans + car notes done), but it looks that the best option is to not pay down to sub-jumbo but refinance to 15 years.

Now that I think about this a little more, maybe what I should do is to not prepay on the car notes or student loans at all, put that extra cash to Betterment, and refinance to 3.125% x 15 years on the house imminently.

This means not paying off the Land Cruiser note as I was planning to do. If I don't pay that off then I'm highly confident 15 years is doable, drawing down from my Betterment slush fund over the course of the year. Hmmmmm

@stoney thoughts?

 

[Toshi]

Now that I think about this a little more, maybe what I should do is to not prepay on the car notes or student loans at all, put that extra cash to Betterment, and refinance to 3.125% x 15 years on the house imminently.

This means not paying off the Land Cruiser note as I was planning to do. If I don't pay that off then I'm highly confident 15 years is doable, drawing down from my Betterment slush fund over the course of the year. Hmmmmm

@stoney thoughts?

I was all ready to pull the trigger and refinance tonight to 3.125% x 15 years, as $974 extra per month is totally doable if I don't prepay other debts... but the quoted rates have gone up by 0.125% since yesterday.

Gah.

I guess I'll just check daily and pull the trigger when they drop again.

 

[CBJ]

I feel a little lucky when I read this as the only debt we have is the mortgage and the rate now dropped below 1% for the first time. I am a little behind on figuring out what to do with our retirement savings but still have until the end of the year for that. Don't think paying off the house make any sense for us.

 

[Toshi]

This exercise has shown me that (a) although I was drinking a bunch (almost daily) hopping on the wagon for a while wasn't an issue, and (b) I enjoy it and shouldn't deny myself that. Regular/daily drinking is over for me, but a beer or drink once in a while is ok.

Crossing over from the Sober October thread: This sounds super similar to the mental game with food and fasting!

For those not emaciated hunger is a transient hormone regulated signal triggered by time, sights, smells… as I imagine the transient craving to have alcohol is.

 

[Toshi]

If there was a service like this in my neighborhood I’d use public transit:

How self-driving shuttles could enable car-free living in the suburbs

Optimus Ride is aiming to begin driverless commercial operations in 2020.

arstechnica.com

Home to commuter rail via community-provided/paid driverless EV shuttle hailed via app. Then commuter and light rail for one stop each to my campus-adjacent stop. There already is a free shuttle from there to near my actual building (since they rerouted the line to not go literally through campus, even though they should have done that to make it more useful).

But there isn’t, so I bike the whole way because biking 40% of the way, locking up, then public transiting is dumb, or I drive when biking isn’t in the cards.

 

[Toshi]

This afternoon’s nerdy exercise: (have a web page) calculate (for me) amortization tables for my current car notes to see if DCU’s proposed $300 fee to refinance all three of them 0.50% lower than their current rates makes sense… with the added factor that the Tesla and PacHy will both be traded in in all likelihood around 24 months from now towards a Y, PHEV Sienna, or ID Buzz.





If anyone was wondering, the answer is yes, it makes sense to pay the fee and refinance.

 

[Toshi]

I took another gander at the rates via bankrate.com today and one outfit was showing 3.000% x 15 years, 0 points, jumbo refinance. So I put in my contact info and got a call from a broker.

Upon looking at local offers he found 3.125% x 15 years, 0 points with something like $1300 fees (Costco Finance being more like $720 typically)… but also a more intriguing 3.000% offer with the rate buydown something laughably low, like $260 iirc. Sweetening the deal with these fees is that bankrate will throw $500 my way if I close this month, and I think the broker has some kind of rebate as well so it may be a wash as compared to Costco. I don’t know if the 3.000% in the bankrate search engine was something they threw in as a red herring, but for that fraction of a point I’d totally buy down.

I’m going to speak with him more when he can check rates again on Monday, and may well be moving forward with refinancing imminently.

 

[Pesqueeb]

The Toyota bB Open Deck is a pickup I would totally drive:

 

[Toshi]

99.9% rideable. I walked one semi snowy bridge that I probably would have been fine on.

Pivot’s pivot design is just a setup to crunch rocks...

 

[Toshi]

Skip to 1:14 if the embed doesn't take you there, assuming you want the technical bits.

4-speed planetary gearset behind the usual 2 motor-generator power split device. 10 virtual speeds created as a result, with the benefits of better use of the engine for acceleration at low speeds, lower rpm at higher road speeds, and electric-only operation up to 140 km/h in the RC, at least.

This is of interest to me in general since I like the Toyota design and this improves on what I didn't like (rubber band feeling, noise/coarseness of engine at high freeway speeds). It also is of interest because the 300 series Land Cruiser is reputed to employ a similar system. I wonder how they're going to handle towing, low range 4WD, etc. with that application.



Edit: Tahoe Hybrid was basically this exact design, two motor hybrid with four speed planetary. It towed 5,900-6,200 lbs so it’s possible.

Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid

Solid Team Effort

www.boatingmag.com

 

[Toshi]

Random joy of the day:

While driving back after my ride the lot at GGCR/93 was clearly the site of a Honda Grom rider's club meeting. Maybe 6 Groms there and 3 normal-sized bikes. It was pretty awesome.

 

[Toshi]

So @SkaredShtles how much money should I invest in Bitcoin this time? Worked out pretty well for me last. Maybe I'll toss $5k towards it and ride it out for a year to make it LTCG...

 

[Toshi]

I took another gander at the rates via bankrate.com today and one outfit was showing 3.000% x 15 years, 0 points, jumbo refinance. So I put in my contact info and got a call from a broker.

I’m going to speak with him more when he can check rates again on Monday, and may well be moving forward with refinancing imminently.

So 3.000% turned out to be a phantom, but 3.125% is a go. This via LoanLock:

Refinance Quote
As of 10/14/19 at 10:39 AM

Interest Rate: 3.125%
Lock Period: 45 days
Loan Program: 15 YR Fixed

Estimated Closing Costs

Lender Fee: $1,295
Appraisal: $550
Title/Escrow: $1,300 (estimate)

Total Cost, before Credit: $3,145
- Lender Credit/Discount Fee: ($2,800)
Net Closing Costs: $345

This looks pretty good to me. Bankrate.com will kick in $500 more back to me, so assuming title/escrow comes out near the estimate this will be a no closing cost loan.

 

[Toshi]

The 2020 Porsche Taycan 4S Packs A Lot Of Electric Power For An 'Entry-Level' Car

It feels like just last month when we were introduced to Porsche’s first foray into the world of electric cars, the brutally fast 2020 Porsche Taycan Turbo S. That’s because it actually was last month, and it seems Porsche isn’t wasting any time in filling the rest of the lineup. Meet the Taycan...

jalopnik.com

Taycan 4S "base model" starts at $103,800 + destination for a 79.2 kWh, 522 hp package.

:nononocat.gif:

 

[Toshi]

255/65R18 Nokians back on. 31.1”, near stock diameter. They sure look small and funny...

 

[Toshi]

That's a 992 interior. Gah, my eyes. Besides the offensive red leather everywhere this is just a nightmare:

- wide center console for no reason other than to block one's knee
- stupid razor-dildo shifter, which highlights it's PDK
- stupid little buttons and lots of wasted space
- have I mentioned it is ugly? because it is

How far from the tree they have fallen:

(993)

 

[Toshi]

The First Electric Ferrari is Definitely Unofficial

All it took was a burned-out 1978 308 GTS hulk and a couple hundred pounds of batteries.

www.thedrive.com

Sort of want. (Same company as converts the old FJ40 with the "electric V-8".)

 

[Toshi]

So 3.000% turned out to be a phantom, but 3.125% is a go. This via LoanLock

Locked down my refinance rate today.

3.125% x 15 years fixed, jumbo, 0 points, $0 lender fee, $550 appraisal. Unknown final net closing costs but should be pretty cheap ultimately.

I also refinanced my 3 car notes with DCU today. They ultimately waived 2 of the 3 $150 refinance charges. I kept the term the same as what was left (54 and 61 months left variously).

Current debt scenario, noting that the math favors paying down the longest term debt when the rates are in the same ballpark (so not paying down the cars!):

Effective mortgage rate is projecting for 2020's taxes based off of the post-2018 larger standard deduction, how much I usually claim in itemized deductions, etc. My 3.875% nominal 30 year mortgage worked out to an effective rate of 3.46% last year, iirc.

 

[6thElement]

That's definitely making me think I need to look at refinancing costs on the mortgage.

 

[Toshi]

So the debt I'd prepay on would be the mortgage, estimated at 2.70% effective. At that rate logically I should invest whatever extra money comes my way after servicing all of these loans (and contributing to the kids' 529s, which I'm resuming next month). Having my Betterment account swell up would make me feel better as well given the innate higher cost of the 15 year mortgage as compared to my current baseline.

 

[Toshi]

That's definitely making me think I need to look at refinancing costs on the mortgage.

If I were you I'd check out costcofinance.com and also poll the rates at bankrate.com. I got hooked up with this broker via the latter, and although their fees are higher Bankrate.com is also kicking $500 back to me, and some portion of the remaining closing costs may end up credited to me on top of that.

 

[CBJ]

That's a 992 interior. Gah, my eyes. Besides the offensive red leather everywhere this is just a nightmare:

- wide center console for no reason other than to block one's knee
- stupid razor-dildo shifter, which highlights it's PDK
- stupid little buttons and lots of wasted space
- have I mentioned it is ugly? because it is

How far from the tree they have fallen:

(993)

VW high end brands have gone crazy with LCD. It like some big boss hammered his fist in the table and just demanded LCDs moooorrrreeee LCDs.

 

[Toshi]

Volvo XC40 Recharge announced

Good:

- 408 hp via all wheels, 0-60 in 4.7 seconds
- 150 kW fast charging

Bad:

- "more than 200" miles of EPA range despite 78 kWh pack, so shitty efficiency
- "priced under $50,000" so expect $49,990
- 2 rows, only 19"/20" wheel options, Sensus will still be crappy with Android underhood

Verdict: Why would anyone buy this instead of a Model Y save for misplaced vanity?

 

[Toshi]

Who says EVs can't be exciting? The sound is like a giant RC car