[Toshi]

Out with the old (Series 4, aluminum, 44 mm) and in with the new (Series 5, titanium, 44 mm).

I’m going to pop the Series 4 with the Sport Band on eBay in a second. The 5 will live with this leather loop and the almost black Sport Loop I typically use.

Series 4 link, which you are all free to share:

Apple Watch Series 4 44 mm aluminum case Space Gray GPS | eBay

Condition is Used.

www.ebay.com

 

[CBJ]

The Ti version looks really good. Did you get it with cell build in?

 

[Toshi]

The Ti version looks really good. Did you get it with cell build in?

Yeah no choice for Series 5 stainless, Ti, ceramic versions. Didn't activate the cell service though--no reason.

 

[Toshi]

A short video tale of a jerk in a Silverado on I-225 N the other day:

 

[Toshi]

My goal for the end of October was 230 lbs. I weighed in post-skiing at 229.6 today. It was not a representative weight since I'm fasted since last night and skied for 2 hours, but with Sunday's indeterminate length fast to consolidate things I'll be solidly/truly under that bar for the month.

On to the next goal, 220 by end of November…

 

[Toshi]

BEV mountain trip nerd-data for @stoney

Starting SOC was 88.5% or so, showing 275 miles (90% being 279).
Ending SOC was 38%, showing 118 miles.

My round trip to A-Basin including to my local car wash on the way back was 152.9 miles. To travel that took 36 kWh, for an efficiency of 235 Wh/mi. The return leg by itself was 73.8 miles at 87 Wh/mi thanks to the magic of regeneration--was at 135 miles indicated at the top of Loveland Pass, for instance, and just 17 miles shorter when at home.

For context my lifetime efficiency in the car is 263 Wh/mi, and this jives: roads were almost entirely dry, temperatures not that low, and speeds pretty constant.

 

[stoney]

My goal for the end of October was 230 lbs. I weighed in post-skiing at 229.6 today. It was not a representative weight since I'm fasted since last night and skied for 2 hours, but with Sunday's indeterminate length fast to consolidate things I'll be solidly/truly under that bar for the month.

On to the next goal, 220 by end of November…

The question is how long can you keep up this lifestyle? And if you stop it, what will the rebound be?

 

[Toshi]

The question is how long can you keep up this lifestyle? And if you stop it, what will the rebound be?

I can skip breakfast/not snack after dinner so as to achieve at least 16 hours fasting and be lowish carbs (<= 100g or so) indefinitely, and I think that'll be sufficient for maintenance. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

 

[Toshi]

Also re sustainability see post #9,561. My theory is that what I'm doing (namely with the long periods of low insulin and glucose) will reverse what insulin resistance I had developed over the years. Reverse that and the root cause is addressed.

/me awaits his HOMA-IR

 

[Toshi]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2019/10/16/the-energy-202-trump-administration-wants-to-open-up-more-public-trails-to-e-bikes-no-one-knows-exactly-what-that-means/5da6244c88e0fa3155a71155/

Change is coming for BLM lands wrt e-bike access. Maybe things will be finalized by spring.

Related:

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

(I think that's a Shuttle like mine! only without the 29" hoops mine now rocks)

>>>>>


U.S. Forest Service- Tahoe National Forest
· October 23 ·

As the 2019 field season winds to a close, the Tahoe National Forest would like to share an update on class 1, pedal-assisted E-bike use on recommended routes and trails:

• No observed increase in trail degradation nor resource damage occurred as a result of class 1, pedal-assisted E-bike use on Tahoe National Forest routes or trails.
• No trail conflicts were reported or observed between class 1, pedal-assisted E-bike users and other recreationalists on Tahoe National Forest roads or trails.
• There were no reported accidents or injuries due to E-bike use of any class type on Tahoe National Forest routes or trails.
• Tahoe National Forest trail and recreation managers did observe an increase in the diversity of skill levels and age groups utilizing E-bikes to access Tahoe National Forest routes and trails. This included both class 1, pedal-assisted E-bike use, and other classes of E-bikes utilizing motorized routes.

The Tahoe National Forest offers a wide variety of E-bike riding opportunities. For a complete list of these opportunities, please visit: https://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/tahoe/home/?cid=fseprd641773&width=full

 

[Toshi]

This looks fun

this as in the riding part, not the machines themselves

also cool:

Funny how attractive young women are always part of these promo vids, hmm

 

[Toshi]

Man kept getting drunk without drinking. Docs found brewer’s yeast in his guts

His “auto-brewery syndrome” relapsed when he had pizza and soda.

arstechnica.com

 

[Toshi]

Horses are big and Mariko is small.

 

[Toshi]

Toyota’s design language is getting straight up weird.

 

[Toshi]

The other day I saw a Frito Lay trailer that looked awfully long. Part of it was that it had the slightly smaller wheels and low floor a la a moving company trailer. But when the truck passed me sure enough the trailer read 57’.

I didn’t know that trailers longer than 53’ were legal, but it turns they are legal in some states. TMYK

 

[Toshi]

75 degrees Saturday to this. (This is less extreme than the 83 to 13 F swing over 18 hours a week or two ago.)

Although I’d have most likely been fine driving the Tesla all week, in order to continue to weakly justify the Land Cruiser’s existence in my life I moved the Tesla to the driveway and the Land Cruiser into the garage last night. (Ain’t nobody got time to scrape off snow and ice from cars in the morning or tolerate the cold interior for the first 10 minutes on the road, so if I am to drive the Land Cruiser it has to be in the garage.)

Therefore the Tesla will cold soak for a few days, and I will monitor how much vampire drain this results in for the sake of science. The current data from a few minutes ago are of 262 miles displayed range and an interior temperature of 43 degrees, the latter via solar gain from the glass roof as it’s 25 degrees outside.

 

[Toshi]

Now that I think about this a little more, maybe what I should do is to not prepay on the car notes or student loans at all, put that extra cash to Betterment, and refinance to 3.125% x 15 years on the house imminently.

This means not paying off the Land Cruiser note as I was planning to do. If I don't pay that off then I'm highly confident 15 years is doable, drawing down from my Betterment slush fund over the course of the year. Hmmmmm

As mused about in the quoted passage above, I am going to spend at least a half year from now directing all excess monthly cash to Betterment (my taxable investment account): No early payments on debts until I figure out the long term cashflow effect of the 15 year mortgage refinance + resumption of 529 contributions + the small monthly reduction in auto loan payments post-refinance.

Cliffs Notes: I shall be dumping money into my taxable account this upcoming week then drawing it down over the next 6 months, watching it closely.





Nota Bene for finance-nerdy types: Cashflow estimation isn’t a trivial problem because a) bonuses that are now split up biannually are a pretty large part of my total compensation, b) FICA taxes resume come Jan 1, and c) 401(a) contributions resume come Jan 1—the latter 2 have their own annual caps that reset with the new tax year. (For the pedants in the audience there’s also another small variable-over-year component from the Additional Medicare Tax, but that’s not capped, per se, but rather has an income floor after which it applies.)

 

[Toshi]

An update on the Italian minivan.

Note the very high percentage of electric only miles despite the 33 or so mile electric only range. Having a level 2 EVSE that takes it from empty to full charge in 2 hours flat enables this.

Last filled up on August 17 as per the quote. Filled up again last night at just under 1/2 tank, to get rid of the annoying Fuel and Oil Refresh Mode forced engine-running.

 

[Toshi]

Jalopnik had a crap article on Cash for Clunkers today, which inspired me to look into what effect it really had:

The Impact of 'Cash for Clunkers” on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Life Cycle Perspective

One of the goals of the US Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save (CARS) Act of 2009, more commonly known as ‘Cash for Clunkers’, was to improve the US vehicle fleet fuel efficiency.

css.umich.edu

>>>>>

We propose and apply a method for analyzing the net effect of CARS on greenhouse gas emissions from a full vehicle life cycle perspective, including the impact of premature production and retirement of vehicles. We find that CARS had a one-time effect of preventing 4.4 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent emissions, about 0.4% of US annual light-duty vehicle emissions. Of these, 3.7 million metric tons are avoided during the period of the expected remaining life of the inefficient ‘clunkers’. 1.5 million metric tons are avoided as consumers purchase vehicles that are more efficient than their next replacement vehicle would otherwise have been. An additional 0.8 million metric tons are emitted as a result of premature manufacturing and disposal of vehicles. These results are sensitive to the remaining lifetime of the ‘clunkers’ and to the fuel economy of new vehicles in the absence of CARS

<<<<<

Cliffs Notes are that Cash for Clunkers, contrary to popular wisdom, produced a substantial net reduction in CO2 even after accounting for premature retirement of the Clunkers.

 

[Toshi]

 

[Toshi]

On energy efficiency in wintry conditions and the psychology of having a BEV.

Despite having swapped the cars' positions such that the Land Cruiser would be warm inside the garage I elected to take the Tesla to get some takeout tonight. The psychological effect for those a bit cheap at heart is to blame: it's just so much cheaper to drive it. I've noted the same thing over the years when we've had vehicles much cheaper than their peers: with the Prius (vs. the Fit), the RAV4 EV (vs. the Land Cruiser) and the PacHy (versus the Land Cruiser similarly).

So I fired up the climate control, after waiting for a few minutes for the car to connect–LTE reception was apparently bad in these stormy conditions. After only losing about 3 miles over the half day to vampire drain heating the interior up took 11 miles worth of range in and of itself!

Then there was the drive.

Conditions were bad: wet roads, limited visibility (turn your lights on, stoners!), and saturated air as it was snowing. I had to use the hot defroster (there's also a cool defroster in Tesla-land) the whole time on the way to the restaurant. The 10.5 miles took 20 miles of nominal range! To be more precise, the efficiency on this leg was 445 Wh/mile, again as compared to the 262 Wh/mile lifetime efficiency that I've seen from it. This is 70% worse than typical efficiency, on basically flat terrain.

The drive back was more efficient because I didn't have to use the defroster, but the point stands that conditions such as those in this snowstorm really kill the efficiency of EVs. (They'd affect gas cars much less--the rolling resistance changes would be there, sure, but as gas cars use otherwise wasted heat for their heating needs…) Between the lower efficiency and the energy use of pre-heating the interior the 21 mile round trip used a total of 44 miles of nominal range.

 

[CBJ]

Would it normally be plugged in so you cold pre heat?

 

[Toshi]

Would it normally be plugged in so you cold pre heat?

Yeah, this is worst case for sure. Normally it'd be in my 50-55 degrees-in-winter insulated and somewhat heated garage, and would be plugged in for the pre-heating. In that circumstance it might do 25% worse efficiency for the trip overall.

 

[CBJ]

Ok, so with the distance you normally drive not an issue but a good example why it electric is not always the best option.

 

[Toshi]

Ok, so with the distance you normally drive not an issue but a good example why it electric is not always the best option.

It has its drawbacks, sure. But even with this worst case scenario it's still super cheap to run:

Those "44 miles" cost about $1.08 at winter Xcel rates if the charger on the car is 90% efficient.

Context for that 22 mile round trip, assuming $2.75/gal regular gas:

- $4.03 at 15 MPG
- $2.42 at 25 MPG
- $1.73 at 35 MPG
- $1.21 at 50 MPG.

If I'd used only my usual 262 Wh/mile in the Tesla 22 actual miles charged at 90% efficiency would have been all of $0.59.

If you want to calculate it yourself (switching to km for you Euros):

For gas, noting no parentheses:

[distance in miles] / MPG * [cost of gas per gallon]

For electrics:

[distance in miles] * [efficiency expressed in kWh/mile <-- note conversion here implicit from Wh/mile as usual] * [cost of electricity per kWh] / [efficiency of charging as %]

 

[Toshi]

Pricing for the 2020 Mini Cooper SE—the historic British marque's first electric model—will start at $29,900 when it goes on sale in March of 2020.

[The] 32.6-kWh [battery] can power the car to an EPA-estimated 114 miles on a full charge. At its maximum DC fast-charge rate of 50 kW, the Cooper SE can recharge to 80 percent in approximately 35 minutes [...]

The range sucks, yes, and 50 kW fast charging is 6 years out of date... but at that price point this actually would make a great commute-specific machine, a less goofy Smart ED, if you will. In Colorado one would be net $18.4k + TTL on the full amount.

 

[Pesqueeb]

The range sucks, yes, and 50 kW fast charging is 6 years out of date... but at that price point this actually would make a great commute-specific machine, a less goofy Smart ED, if you will. In Colorado one would be net $18.4k + TTL on the full amount.

Came to post that. Base model, but a brand new sub 20k commuter car that basically costs zero $$$ to operate? That's amazing.

 

[Toshi]

During this storm I've been digging my Land Cruiser shod with its small 31.1" diameter Nokians. Super sure footed.

The only thing I really wish I had that the Tesla does is the ability to preheat the interior no matter where the vehicle is (indoors/outdoors). An LTE-enabled space heater with a lithium ion battery enough for maybe 5 cycles of heating the interior would be perfect--fire up its app on my phone, have it heat up the interior on command, then I walk out to the garage at work and pull away in comfort.



Come on marketplace! Make this for me

 

[Toshi]

If I really cared to I could build it from a commercial space heater, an Arduino, and a battery pack. 1000 Wh probably would meet my criterion of 5 heating cycles per charge.

But I don't care that much.

Temperature Controlled Space Heater

Temperature Controlled Space Heater: This instructable will take you through the steps necessary to build your own simple temperature controlled space heater that will turn on and off at whatever temperature you choose. This will allow a simple space heater to keep your room at a very …

www.instructables.com

 

[dan-o]

If I really cared to I could build it from a commercial space heater, an Arduino, and a battery pack. 1000 Wh probably would meet my criterion of 5 heating cycles per charge.

But I don't care that much.

Temperature Controlled Space Heater

Temperature Controlled Space Heater: This instructable will take you through the steps necessary to build your own simple temperature controlled space heater that will turn on and off at whatever temperature you choose. This will allow a simple space heater to keep your room at a very …

www.instructables.com

I know it's not green, but why not a simple remote starter?

 

[Toshi]

I know it's not green, but why not a simple remote starter?

When have I ever picked a simple way to attack a problem?!

 

[Toshi]

Besides, the Land Cruiser will regain its position inside the garage when the Model 3 and the minivan are traded in on a future VW ID Buzz (or Model Y 3 row version) come 2021 or 2022. I can tolerate 5 minutes of being cold when parked at work or out and about until then.

 

[SkaredShtles]

I like how you're already thinking about the *next* vehicles you'll own... while I'm over here always thinking how I can get away with NEVER OWNING ANOTHER VEHICLE.

 

[Toshi]

I like how you're already thinking about the *next* vehicles you'll own... while I'm over here always thinking how I can get away with NEVER OWNING ANOTHER VEHICLE.

That's depressing thinking about how a vehicle will be your last, like a stereotypical grandmother and her sad GM sedan

Cliffs Notes: SS is someone's grandma

 

[SkaredShtles]

That's depressing thinking about how a vehicle will be your last, like a stereotypical grandmother and her sad GM sedan

In my defense - I've pretty much always thought this way. Every vehicle that I've ever purchased I've hoped (I suppose quixotically) would last forever. Except maybe a couple of the rusty shitboxes I owned back in the 80's and early 90's...

 

[Montana rider]

Relevant to your "slenderizing" reward:

Is a Pricey Electric Cargo Bike Worth It?

We tested three models at different prices and found a clear favorite

www.outsideonline.com

TLDR: the most expensive one was best but not sure if root beer...

 

[Toshi]

I read that today, amusingly. Google News knows what I'm interested in.

 

[Toshi]

Snow has given my Model 3 the plump profile of a Model Y.

 

[Toshi]

I moved the Model 3 into the garage as the snow is abating.

Turns out the door handles freeze up (but with a little force can be opened), and the charging port will also freeze shut!

Luckily I have a plastic awl in my tool bench from my soldering kit, so was able to chip away at the ice and open up the charging door without harming the paint. I wasn't sure if the nominal 94 miles left on the battery would be sufficient for driving about tomorrow given that it'll still be in single digits.

For reference, a Model 3 left out in these conditions (9-20 F consistently for a few days) will use less than 6 miles of range per day in vampire drain.

 

[CBJ]

We had frost on the ground here this morning too but luckily no snow especially considering I will not have my winter tires on before late next month.