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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Kid hauler options come August, if I'm feeling lush and school is actually physically in session...

Surly Big Easy



Pros:

- Bosch Performance CX mid drive for a little extra torque
- 400 lb payload (rider + cargo) rating and brakes/wheels/tires to match that load
- dropper post, now stock (previously just with bosses for one's cabling, iirc)
- looks manly

Cons:

- 26" rear wheel means the kid-platform is that much higher
- no accessories stock besides the bags (i.e. kid foot platforms, handlebars or rails, lighting, fenders)
- 20 mph assist limit on the mid drive
- based off of reach I'd certainly want the medium, yet that has a 30" standover. Wife would not ride this, I'm almost certain.

Xtracycle eSwoop X1+



Pros:

- Bosch Performance CX or Speed options, although I can't seem to figure out how to spec the latter in the current website. At the least CX. Speed == 28 mph assist limit.
- comes with fenders, foot rests, bar for kids, lighting, centerstand
- similarly rated for 400 lbs payload
- low rear platform (19.5-23.5") for lower CoG via small rear wheel
- wife more apt to ride this, although her balancing it at a stop with two kids seems super dicey

Cons:

- very short reach--they try to make one frame size work for everyone via seatposts and stems--might feel very weird
- looks a bit flimsy, honestly, although I assume they did their engineering work on the backend
- no dropper, although the stepthrough/mixte design does make up for this

Yuba Spicy Curry Bosch



Pros:

- marginally cheaper than others
- at least under current promo comes fully outfitted a la Xtracycle
- low rear platform with small rear wheel
- wife similarly more apt to ride something like this

Cons:

- non-CX, non-Speed motor, so 20 mph and marginally less torque (although the Speed has the same torque)
- unclear re geometry, probably same one size short reach deal
- 330 lb payload capacity, which might eventually be a limitation
- no dropper



Now that I look at Yuba's site, I see they've come out with a slightly less exorbitant bakfiet of their own:

Yuba Electric Supermarché







Pros:

- handling might be better? I don't know, never ridden a bakfiet design
- looks nice
- Bosch Performance CX mid drive
- 220 lbs in front box, 80 lbs on back rack so good payload (not inclusive of rider afaik)
- might be easier to manage for wife with low CoG, especially with its centerstand

Cons:

- slightly more expensive than the conventional longtails
- handling might not be better
- kids will grow out of that box quicker than astride a longtail's rear end
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695


Sometimes the elder kid is snuggly as well. (Middle and younger kids are very snuggly still.)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Rode down to the kids' new school (in theory in August should schools actually be open) today with the family. 5.0 miles each way with the current construction-limited route. Should be 5.2 miles with the post-construction route (which exchanges slightly more distance for being entirely car-protected save for a handful of road crossings).

If I'm going to do this with both kids regularly/on the way in to work then electric assist will be the key.

I'm going to set up a test ride of the Yuba Electric Supermarché as above at a local shop in the next week or two to see exactly how weird bakfiet handling is. I still wouldn't actually need something like this until August (in as much as I need it at all), of course.
 

CBJ

year old fart
Mar 19, 2002
12,874
4,214
Copenhagen, Denmark
Around here the preferred bike type three wheeled cargo bike with the box in front of the rider I guess they are easier for cruising - there are a lot of them around in Copenhagen

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Around here the preferred bike type three wheeled cargo bike with the box in front of the rider I guess they are easier for cruising - there are a lot of them around in Copenhagen

The wife's current Taga 2.0 is along those lines.



Trike handling is weird (especially when transitioning up and down off of off-camber bridges over the local creek!), and cadence sensing electric assist is no good, though. Plus hers is a single speed.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695


So this is the rocket we launched today, an Estes Alpha III.

It can take these engines with the associated total impulse: 1/2A6-2 (1.25 N-sec), A8-3 (2.5), A8-5 (not listed, probably 2.5), B4-4 (5.0), B6-4 (5.0), B6-6 (5.0), C6-5 (10.0), C6-7 (10.0)

Naming conventions are described here. If I can find somewhere safe and legal to launch it a C6-5 is supposed to be the one that offers the most height (~1300 ft iirc).
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
How much space do you need, what's the risk of it setting the launch site ablaze?
Supposed to have 1/3 flight altitude radius clear around launch site, I think. So 100-400’ depending on which engine used.

If launch goes fine no risk to ground: fires into a little metal disk on the launch stand and has expended its hot gases prior to its descent. Indeed the deployment of the chute is from a last forward-facing blast from the cartridge.

Risk is if a misfire on the ground if it falls over or the like.
 

CBJ

year old fart
Mar 19, 2002
12,874
4,214
Copenhagen, Denmark
The wife's current Taga 2.0 is along those lines.



Trike handling is weird (especially when transitioning up and down off of off-camber bridges over the local creek!), and cadence sensing electric assist is no good, though. Plus hers is a single speed.
Extra wide handlebar. Is is a down hill kids carrier :-)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
So I "rode" Floyd Hill today. Some things were fun. Some optional lines were very janky (and few if any tire tracks on at least one sketchy drop). Jump line at the end requires more pace than I had on my scouting or second laps.

Verdict: Was ok.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
How's the climb to the top? I've still not been.
Couple of steep sections and short rock gardens. Mostly tame.

Heading left/clockwise out of the parking lot one first encounters a hikers-only trail that goes to the right. Then there's another split (after an unused jeep access road going straight up the hill crosses the trail a few times), left harder, right easier.

Take the right one to go straight to the top of The Sluice.

Left one is a fun little trail with some sidehill exposure. Seems a lot like Mule Deer with a bit more technical sections perhaps. That wastes a bit of altitude then climbs up to a junction at which one should take the trail marked to the Top of Floyd Hill rather than the two North Loop limbs.

It's quite close to you!
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Some optional lines were very janky (and few if any tire tracks on at least one sketchy drop)
That'd be this section, which got a nope/nope/nope for me for the left/drop off slab, hugging the wall and aiming for stacked rocks, and dropping straight down (~6 ft? to off-camber) options.

IMG_2915.JPEG
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
I do not want a C-HR. That beltline and pillars!

But I would very much like a PHEV AWD Sienna in my garage in place of the FCA unit, to keep the floor warm until the ID Buzz arrives at long last.



First to leak prior to LA is the plan for a 2021 RAV4 PHEV. No details as of yet. I'm hoping 2021 Sienna details pop out then as well, replete with a PHEV +/- i-AWD variant!
2021 Sienna. Gaping maw. Hybrid only (4 cylinder a la Highlander current gen hybrid). TNG-A platform.

No PHEV option. Bleh.

ACF89EF6-B77A-4EE1-A099-8542FCC375C9.jpeg
C7B46380-505D-4B3F-9E7A-963DC078E906.jpeg
8FD04AA8-9E88-4460-880E-A32B00ED5F33.jpeg
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
jesus christ......
That directed at the three line option there or the ugly minivan? Or both?

:D

This was very much an optional line section. One must go straight instead of turning rather obviously to even find it. (I saw of its existence in a video.)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
1B10F39B-2892-4DF0-97E5-687432F46A49.jpeg


I think I’ll shave it off tonight.

edit: aftermath

27D4A13F-94F4-4EB0-8A20-25D0C2BC46D2.jpeg
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Costco Finance is again showing 2.625% for 15 years fixed! Jump on it people.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
What are the 5/1 ARMs looking like?? Asking for a friend...
You keep on asking this, but it doesn't make sense for you being 5 years out. 5/1 ARM would be on a 30 year amortization schedule, with the 5/1 just referring to 5 years initial fixed, resetting each year after that.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
I've been joking - there's no fucking way I'm doing anything at this point other than paying that muthafucka off. :D
At this point in your amortization schedule you're probably paying an amount of interest equal to that which you'd pay at the initial months of a super, super low rate 5 year loan... like my currently 0.45% student loans.

Edit: incorrect math, see two posts down!
 
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6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,940
13,189
Which is kind of where we are, the fees need to be super low along with a low interest rate for us to do anything...
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
At this point in your amortization schedule you're probably paying an amount of interest equal to that which you'd pay at the initial months of a super, super low rate 5 year loan... like my currently 0.45% student loans.
Which is kind of where we are, the fees need to be super low along with a low interest rate for us to do anything...
Numbers time for fun!


Let's assume S.S. had a $350k loan for 30 years at 4% fixed, starting Jan 1995. Then as of Jan 2020 he'd have $90,731 still outstanding.

Over 2020-2024 until it was paid off he'd pay $3,325, $2,643, $1,934, $1,196, and then $428 in interest each year, or $9,528 in total interest.

Hmm. So I was wrong. It still works out to be the same amount of interest that'd he'd pay on a 5 year loan for $90,731 x 5 years @ 4%. But the fees sway the math more. To make up for $1,500 in fees over that same 5 year term he'd need a 3.375% loan instead of 4.000%.

TIL that math is hard.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
So if Tesla indeed raises the FSD price by $1k, then to replicate my car (3 LR AWD, gray, Aero, black interior, Acceleration Upgrade, FSD) would be $58,990 + TTL.

With that in mind as a ballpark for price comparisons new vs used, if I sold it on 8/1/20 for $45k then it'd have cost me $606/month, including the tax on its original cost + the Acceleration Upgrade and accounting for the original tax credits. If it gets $49k then it'd have cost me $395/month by the same math. Selling on 5/1/20 for $45k would be $719/mo.
In the interests of idly wasting Tesla's time I got a trade-in quote for them, figuring they'd know how to value their options better than randos.

Current trade-in offer from Tesla directly on my Model 3 (15,157 miles) is $43k. With the sales tax benefit that works out to be equal to selling it outright for $46,974, therefore effective cost per month would be about $500.

That said, I am not going to do anything at this time as I have no use for a 5 seat Model Y, don't want an S or X, and don't want to realize depreciation on a 3 Performance for no real reason. Mine is plenty fast as it is, + 50 hp since @stoney borrowed it for a few days over the winter via the Acceleration Upgrade.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
So can I get a 1.5% 5y loan?? Maybe I can find an auto lender that will give me a 7y loan for 0% with the house as collateral instead of a car?

:D
That seems about as likely as getting a negative interest mortgage from Claus.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,249
7,695
Rode down to the kids' new school (in theory in August should schools actually be open) today with the family. 5.0 miles each way with the current construction-limited route. Should be 5.2 miles with the post-construction route (which exchanges slightly more distance for being entirely car-protected save for a handful of road crossings).
Construction is finally over on my route! Well, almost.

First section headed from home-work is now officially reopened. 2/3rds of this now-opened section remains as it was before, gravel and dirt, just re-graded.

Last bit has a new rerouted concrete path with adjacent crusher fine jogging path, skirting a drainage pond for the large development site (industrial/offices) that the path flanks. My panorama, which I'll attach via phone since that can resize easily, is of the transition between the old and new bits.

The other section that had been closed is along a road that was rebuilt from a 1 lane per direction asphalt jobber to a separated 2 lanes per direction + turn lane-when-needed beauty. As part of that they're building multiuse paths on both sides of the road. The one on the preferred side still has about 12 10 x 10' chunks that they haven't poured for some reason, with the other 98% of it in place.

I got to cruise up the road itself--they have all car traffic routed to one divided half of the road, so the other unstriped side is a playground for cyclists (and the odd parked construction truck) now.