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Toshi's thread

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
@rideit


The future approaches ever so slowly. Their payload claims seem all whack, for the record.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
So the latest articles on the Lightning reveal that they're only aiming on 15k produced in 2022. meh.

The plan outlined by Reuters says Ford hopes to build 15,000 Lightnings for the 2022 model year
Just as well. It seems I won't be driving the kids to school as the district-provided bus did materialize (they were threatening to not have it despite the chaos it'd cause) so won't be putting too many miles beyond my ~8 mi commute on the Land Cruiser anyway.
 
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Changleen

Paranoid Member
Jan 9, 2004
11,893
1,062
Hypernormality
Hey Toshi, can you run your medical bullshitometer over this? SciTechDaily not exactly reputable:

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Hey Toshi, can you run your medical bullshitometer over this? SciTechDaily not exactly reputable:

Sounds promising. But they need trials and actual data, not just their computer model.

What’d be most promising would be to encode this fancy antibody in an mRNA platform as a vaccine.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909

This is a weird, weird listing. 2001, confirmed multiple places. Old 4 speed shifter, old center dashboard/infotainment.

Headlights, grille, bumper? from a 2006-2007. LED tails from a 2006-2007. 18" wheel/tire combo from a late 100, not a 2001 for sure. Wood on the steering wheel, which wasn't a USDM Land Cruiser feature in the 100s afaik (only the LX 470 had that).

So this super mongrel presented well and sold for $21.5k as a 2001 of sorts, 130k and change with the timing belt having been done. This bodes well for my 100 being worth perhaps $20k still, with more miles but presenting similarly well and also not being a mongrel-beast.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Maybe worth more yet!


See this one in particular as a comparison:

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Ford Eluminator crate motor


Down the road I'd love for my Land Cruiser to be retrofitted with this motor as well as enough kWh of battery between its frame rails to go about 150 miles.

281 hp, 317 lb-ft torque. That'd do just fine, yes.

Until such a turnkey solution outside of the motor exists I'll wait.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Denver:

- refi in progress through Better, 1.750% x 15 years for $779 in points, reasonable other fees, no other fuckery that I can detect
- HELOC at 2.24% is open and will be subordinated to the new primary note
Screen Shot 2021-09-01 at 8.06.38 PM.png


Not quite sure how closing after rate lock expires work, but the final loan disclosure was e-signed by me yesterday and they think the timeline is ok so go figure


edit: closed on 9/4 as foreseen, yes, after the rate lock expired but at that rate. Not complaining.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
6E8B9EBB-7F30-4E84-809C-193108509E9A.jpeg


Smoky up here, too.

We are up for the weekend as the Phish concert at the stadium 0.9 miles north of our Denver house was very loud, and why not? (But for the owner clean fee after we leave to reset the place.)

Their cleaners did a great job. Place looks very clean throughout and a full garbage can in the garage backs up the thoroughness. They did throw away some random body wash and other things in replacing it with Vacasa issue fare but so be it.

Seems like the upstairs carpet is going to be let slide for now. They are insisting on new couches for the main floor and loft, and I get the feeling we aren’t going live until after the deck is redone and I get reasonable patio furniture out there as well.

The good news with the couch/patio deal is that I closed yesterday on a cash out refi on the Denver place, back out to the conforming limit, 15 years fixed at 1.75%. So it’ll be paid for with very cheap money. Also have the 2.24% current but variable HELOC untapped as of yet—don’t think I’ll have to dip into that.

The other good news is that they’ll deal with delivery and installation for the furniture so I can have it shipped here and tell them when it’ll be here. They have access to the house and garage anyway. This will make life easier and save me valuable time.

So hopefully deck/furniture all done by mid October and listed at long last then. Carpet redone upstairs and hot tub after ski season wraps up?




Ordered some furniture to suit Vacasa's whims as above, and honestly it will make the place feel nicer, too. It's just money, after all.

For the main floor, one of these in 3 seat length, two of the same in 2 seat length:

Screen Shot 2021-09-05 at 5.01.06 PM.png


For the loft (with its projector setup), a couch + loveseat power recliner combo:

recliner.jpeg


And for the big ol' deck (again getting redone properly with Trex from the sad tiles + improper flashing):

outdoor diner.jpeg


and



Went with Sunbrella fabric on the outdoor furniture so as to not have to go through this song and dance in the next few years with any luck.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
GLB 3rd row is rethorical.
As in 911 rear seats.
It is amusing that it exists, though.

Perhaps I'll get a Rivian R1S in a year or two if the house-renting business proves profitable. Or perhaps I'll drive the Land Cruiser forever and amass more houses and associated debt yet. Who knows
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
On a paid L2 EVSE umbilical. I don’t think I’ve ever paid for L2 before. Used free L3 CHAdeMO and Supercharger credits mostly for kicks before, sure, and have gotten free public L2 before as well.

I couldn’t get the Electrify America app or Wallet card to work so I ended up just dipping a regular credit card on the machine.

C81FC203-3299-4E67-9531-9E5F9CD0518E.jpeg
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
I just put in a dispute with Chase for the $12k and change for the deck + drywall contractor, that charge being 50% down on the promised work. Charge went through June 17, which would mean 90 days is Sept 15, so I wanted to get in before that date in case that threshold matters.

The problem with this contractor, for those who haven't been following along, is that he came out and did the estimate... and then hasn't provided any work, or even any date for said work. And lately he's stopped responding to emails and calls.

So I might be finding a new contractor, I guess, unless this dispute stirs him into long-delayed action.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
View attachment 164336

Not quite sure how closing after rate lock expires work, but the final loan disclosure was e-signed by me yesterday and they think the timeline is ok so go figure


edit: closed on 9/4 as foreseen, yes, after the rate lock expired but at that rate. Not complaining.
As edited above closing went through smoothly on the Denver house's latest refi, cash out back to conforming limit, 1.75% fixed x 15 years. That loan funded on 9/10, the old mortgage is documented as paid off, and the cash out hit my account via an ACH transfer on 9/10 similarly.

All good there. Since I'm no longer in the awkward "can't touch my credit" phase prior to closing, I took another look at Bankrate for the Tabernash house jumbo refi parameters (30 years fixed, 0 points, assuming $670k loan balance against $920k value, both of which may be a bit inaccurate).

Lo and behold Ally was now showing 2.750% on Bankrate for this. Recall that my in-process-also-with-Ally application was for 2.990% with a tiny lender credit.

Being me and all I then opened a duplicate application on Ally, with the alternate name for the street the Tabernash house is on to make it fly past their censors. Indeed the rate environment has changed, for the better! What it showed me (rate/APR/$ amount of points), again recalling this is for a jumbo secondary house note:

2.375%/2.465%/$6,883
2.490%/2.552%/$4,302
2.625%/2.659%/$1,721
2.750%/2.766%/-$1,721
2.875%/2.891%/-$4,302
2.990%/3.007%/-$6,023
etc.

So the 0 point mark is about 2.69%, and 1 point paid buys that down to 2.375%. Per the calculator I used that's a breakeven point of 61 months for that point. (Edit: that's versus 2.69%. Versus my 2.99% as originally locked that's a breakeven at 31 months!)

I therefore paid the $550 appraisal fee yet again so as to lock this new application in. 2.375% x 30 years with 1 point is far better in the long run than 2.990% x 30 years at -0.1 point.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
I just put in a dispute with Chase for the $12k and change for the deck + drywall contractor, that charge being 50% down on the promised work. Charge went through June 17, which would mean 90 days is Sept 15, so I wanted to get in before that date in case that threshold matters.

The problem with this contractor, for those who haven't been following along, is that he came out and did the estimate... and then hasn't provided any work, or even any date for said work. And lately he's stopped responding to emails and calls.

So I might be finding a new contractor, I guess, unless this dispute stirs him into long-delayed action.
The dispute did the trick. Suddenly the contractor became communicative: texting and calling. October 11 is when work will start, potentially getting some of the interior work and demolition done beforehand since I'm not booking the house for anything in the meantime.

Turning the financial screws works, eh
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
45,197
10,822
Sleazattle
The dispute did the trick. Suddenly the contractor became communicative: texting and calling. October 11 is when work will start, potentially getting some of the interior work and demolition done beforehand since I'm not booking the house for anything in the meantime.

Turning the financial screws works, eh

Don't be surprised if 'something comes up' on Oct 10th.
 

ALEXIS_DH

Tirelessly Awesome
Jan 30, 2003
5,914
554
Lima, Peru, Peru
The dispute did the trick. Suddenly the contractor became communicative: texting and calling. October 11 is when work will start, potentially getting some of the interior work and demolition done beforehand since I'm not booking the house for anything in the meantime.

Turning the financial screws works, eh
I´d get my money back and find a new contractor.
Guy has already proven unreliable
 

SkaredShtles

I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!
Sep 21, 2003
55,820
6,768
In a van.... down by the river
:stupid:

90 days without an update, contact or progress and he'd be done and done.
Have you been up to the Fraser Valley lately? There are about 8,492 houses and condos in various states of completion... I'd wager that guy has *nobody* to do any work right now. Hell - he's probably just biding his time until it's too cold, then he can defer Toshi's job to spring.

We were driving back from fishing yesterday and I commented how it appeared there were going to be a LOT of "weathered" new construction in the Fraser/WP area soon... :popcorn:
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
You all may well be right, but I still think soldiering on with this plan is the highest likelihood of actually seeing the place "done" (enough) prior to winter.
 

SkaredShtles

I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!
Sep 21, 2003
55,820
6,768
In a van.... down by the river
You all may well be right, but I still think soldiering on with this plan is the highest likelihood of actually seeing the place "done" (enough) prior to winter.


For the record: the aspens are turning WAY too early in the Fraser Valley right now. We were up there and there were brilliant yellow and red stands in the valley *floor.*

Those trees know what's coming. :panic: :monkeydance:
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
I therefore paid the $550 appraisal fee yet again so as to lock this new application in. 2.375% x 30 years with 1 point is far better in the long run than 2.990% x 30 years at -0.1 point.
The already-paid-for appraisal for the 2.990% application came back today. $935k as it currently stands: with the AC and interior repaint accounted for, but with the old/busted deck finishes, in particular.

:notbadobama:

So assuming appraisal 2 (for the 2.375% application that's the only one still active now) comes back the same then there'll be no issues with this refi, as the current loan balance is therefore ~75% LTV.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Perhaps I'll get a Rivian R1S in a year or two if the house-renting business proves profitable. Or perhaps I'll drive the Land Cruiser forever and amass more houses and associated debt yet. Who knows
Rivian has stopped referring to the kWh of their packs, but originally they mentioned 105, 135, and 180 kWh. The 135 appears to be the "long range" pack currently on offer.


r1s_utility_flexible_seating_desktop.png


I might be interested in a small pack R1S next year if it's ~$60k pre-credits so effectively < $50k. They haven't announced specs or pricing on that variant yet: "After launch, we’ll announce the timing of our 250+ mile and longer range R1S, with seven seats." (The long range variant has an EPA estimated 316 miles, in comparison. I don't need that range.)

It checks the EV, 7 seat, 4WD boxes, and at that speculative price would be cheaper than a Lariat trim Lightning I'd need to get comparable level 2 driving assistance. This is especially true if EV tax credit expansion/limit cap removal bills fail in Congress, as Ford will be phasing out of their credits by next year, I'm guessing. I'd get the Land Cruiser inspected and detailed and pop it on Bring a Trailer if I did so.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909


Today was a Matlab kind of day. Figured out what I needed to figure out. (Revision of earlier paper with the model updated to 100 x 100 resolution from 100 x 5-increments-of-20, as it were.)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
It checks the EV, 7 seat, 4WD boxes, and at that speculative price would be cheaper than a Lariat trim Lightning I'd need to get comparable level 2 driving assistance.
Other contenders in this realm:

- VW ID Buzz, of which the latest buzz is calendar 2023 availability in the US. The ID.6 and ID.8 might come to the US as well, too.
- GM promises that "by the end of 2025, [they] will launch 30 EVs globally, and more than two-thirds will be available in North America", so presumably there'll be an electric 3 row SUV amongst those 20 for the USDM
- Ford scuttlebutt is that an electric Explorer will hit in 2023, although with their battery-constrained Lightning plans I wouldn't be surprised if that got pushed back
- the Tesla Model Y technically has a third row. I should go to the Cherry Creek store sometime and sit in the 3rd row myself for comedy.
- the Canoo Van might emerge from vaporware, but unlikely
- maybe the Mercedes EQV will come over from Europe? not holding my breath
- Volvo XC90 replacement is supposed to be a BEV



 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
I went to the F-150 Lightning tour event today. It came to Denver, and by "Denver" it was in Commerce City a mile from my house.

Quite a good crowd there, all having reserved a spot for the event in advance via an email sent out to reservation holders (as far as I can tell). About 15 minutes wait to check in and 15 minutes to wait in line to ride in the vehicle.

Inside the trucks no photo or video was allowed. Masked driver, masked passengers, only one group of passengers per lap (so me solo as no one else in my group). There were two Pro trim and one XLT trim trucks there doing laps on their autocross-esque course, all extended range, I believe--at least mine was confirmed to be the same.

The course started with a straight and the drivers were all punching it pretty well. It felt very fast yet very massive as well. Stable and agile enough in the 60% pace curvy section after the headline straight.

The interior of the Pro I was in felt fine, too. Materials good enough, visibility good enough (not as good as my 100 series Land Cruiser but not bad for a modern vehicle), and roomy feeling in general.

Was it worth my time to OneWheel a mile to the event and wait in those lines? I'd say definitely yes given the ride-along. Had it just been ogling the naked chassis and "ooh look at the frunk and Pro Power Onboard" demo vehicles I'd have been disappointed, but the ride was satisfying.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
31,825
3,909
Me to Vacasa:

[Vacasa contact dude],

Furniture delivery dates are starting to solidify. The Costco people (via Metropolitan Warehouse & Delivery) for the loft recliners just gave a tentative range of dates of the week of Sept 27. Not very helpful at this point but as that gets more firm I'll let you know.

Their service (from the Costco/Metropolitan side) is supposed to include moving it into the room in question, setting it up, and removing the packaging materials, so I'd like to ask two things from your people:

1) Moving the current old white loft couches out of the way, and
2) Someone to be there to let them in once we actually get the real date.

Thanks in advance.

-[me]


Vacasa dude to me:

Yes I can make those 2 things happen, I’ll create a ticket now to get it on the maintenance guys radar. Let me know as the delivery date firms up and we’ll adjust accordingly.



:banana:

So much better than trying to figure out delivery logistics myself.