this was from when Mariko was a 3rd grader, mid year.
Yuna as a 3rd grader, just a few weeks into the year, tested as a 1125. per that same scale that's grade equivalent 11.2, partway through junior year.
:notbadobama:
this was from when Mariko was a 3rd grader, mid year.
How does that work?...
Not in MY back yard!Shared Skittles has noted NIMBYs in my mountain 'hood opposing a mildly dense multi family development. Here are the resubmitted plans (noting the first should have been approved legally but the planning board is weak). I think it looks great and we should build a lot more like it to boot. My lot is highlighted on the location map at bottom right.
View attachment 200493
Via electrek, official specsRe earlier exploration of economics of the Powerwall, I’ll pay attention to what the on grid continuous power rating is of these. Recall that Xcel pays a one time incentive of $500/installed kW of continuous, grid connected power under Battery*Connect.
Tesla starts Powerwall 3 installations: It looks worse but is more useful
Tesla has started Powerwall 3 installations despite not officially unveiling the product yet. The first installations confirm Electrek‘s first exclusive...electrek.co
Per this 7 pm to 1 pm is off-peak, which is 18 hours if I can do math. 10 cents/kWh in either season.
1-3 pm is mid peak. 19 cents/kWh summer, 13 winter.
3-7 pm is peak. 27 cents/kWh summer, 17 winter.
The question therefore is with that 11.5 kW and 13.5 kWh, how much could I wind that meter back at peak hours (and mid peak if there's enough capacity, which there won't be trivially): the answer would be 13.5 kWh worth of energy, over 1.17 hours, which the astute reader will note is << 4. The best arbitrage one could do is to buy 13.5 kWh at 10 cents and sell that back, if you will, at 27 cents in the summer, every day.
13.5 kWh * $0.10 / kWh / 89% == $1.52 to fill it up, using 89% charging efficiency
13.5 kWh * $0.27 / kWh == $3.65 credited to empty it, not applying that factor since that 89% is round trip. might be doing this wrong
$2.13 per day.
On the cost side, I'm seeing $11.5k estimated installed cost for one Powerwall 2 (which has the same kWh, slightly lower kW power but irrelevant since still well less than 4 hours worth).
There's a 30% Federal tax credit from 2023-2032 for standalone with existing solar. Xcel has local incentives if one allows them to use the battery as a buffer: $500/kW up to 50% of equipment cost, + $100 annually. That'd be $5,750 + $100/year trivially but I think that caps due to the 50% bit, so let's call it $4,750. Denver furthermore has a credit for either 80% of project cost up to $500 or up to $2,750 if one also jumps to a heat pump or heat pump water heater. Colorado has a new 10% state tax credit as well, and exempts systems from sales tax.
(I don't think the heat pump or heat pump water heater options would make sense for me as the cold climate air source heat pump rebate is 40% of cost up to $3,500, and the smart heat pump water heater credit is 60% of project cost up to $1,750. That remaining 40-60% of cost would increase my net costs more than the $2,250 difference, I'm guessing... but maybe not for the smart heat pump water heater potentially? will mull this and tease it out separately. Going with $500 here.)
Up front cost +/- timing of rebates would therefore be $11.5k - 30% * $11.5k Fed - 10% * $11.5k CO - $4,750 Xcel - $500 Denver == $1,650.
Ignoring time value of the money spent on it here. Smoothing in that $100/year makes the arbitrage price $2.40/day. Trivially it's therefore $1,650 / ($2.40 / day) == 687.5 days.
With all these various and sundry incentives stacked that's actually an order of magnitude shorter than what I was expecting. The new as of 2023 30% Fed and 10% CO incentives really help. Hey @stoney after your test please come sanity check this, as I'm thinking these tea leaves indicate I should get a Powerwall or 3. All the credits scale with total cost other than the Denver one already hitting its cap at $500.
edit: math wrong due to my parsing Xcel's formula incorrectly due to them using wrong/mixed terminology. see below.
So I messed up here, but it's not entirely my fault as Xcel used the wrong/mixed terminology. As I quoted, they'll pay $500… but per kW (power), not kWh (capacity). My math used capacity.
Why it's not my fault is that their literature says
Yeah, they used kW, but also "capacity". Thus my parsing it wrong. What led me to notice the error here is their little sidebar example:
View attachment 197401
Here their terminology is in order: kW matches max continuous power, and a Powerwall 2 is indeed a 5.0 kW continuous battery. Anyway, that kills the economics of the Powerwall completely because 5.0 vs 11.5, not to mention their install cost is $6k through Powerwall Direct for 1, $7,500 for 3.
1 Powerwall as installed by Tesla: $8.7k + $6k install - $500 Tesla summer/fall rebate per unit - 30% * $14.7k Fed - 10% * $14.7k CO - $2,500 Xcel - $500 Denver == $5,320.
3 Powerwalls as installed by Tesla: $33,288 installed - $1,500 Tesla rebate - 30% * installed cost Fed - 10% * installed cost CO - $7,500 Xcel - $500 Denver == $10,472.
Circling back re Powerwall 3, at 13.5 kWh, 11.5 kW continuous on grid power.Via electrek, official specs
View attachment 200515
will update math with this assuming that Xcel’s payout is the same for Battery*Connect, $500/kW continuous grid tied power. Big difference from 5 kW!
For me, this is retirement.<snip> "a thing I'd like to do but not in the next 3 years or so."
Perhaps things will snowball and accelerate in future cheaper years between now and when Mariko enters undergrad in 7.5 years or so, but at this point I'm looking quite far from retirement indeed.For me, this is retirement.
Let's also assume that Xcel's Battery*Connect credit at $500/kW holds for the higher power Powerwall 3.
my near term priority 1 is making term payments on my sundry debts. priority 2 is repleting my taxable account from its current sad state to ~$100k, to account for rainy days as well as to save up for a 2025 Japan trip with the family."a thing I'd like to do but not in the next 3 years or so".
guess I should keep on doing all the extra moonlighting work I can at work, eh- water purifier/softener setup for Denver house
- get mountain house deck reinforced for a hot tub, and then crane in a hot tub. to this end I've now emailed all of the builders listed in the Grand County directory. I have a feeling this isn't ultimately happening, though, and this isn't something I can DIY.
- replace the deprecated, old-ass NG boiler supplying domestic hot water and the radiant floors alike at the mountain house with a newer, serviceable heat pump + NG backup system. the state of electrical service to the house might make this infeasible without a five figure panel and service upgrade, in which case I'd put this off and just replace it with another NG boiler when it starts to fail. recall it was shaky for a bit but Hydrotek got it working ok again a year or two ago. I'd inquired with Arctic Heat Pumps way back in February regarding this, and they finally got back to me! I sent them my therm usage data for sizing out such a system.
- get a massage chair for the mountain house to put in the master bedroom. related small size project: move the Peloton Tread(-) from here in Denver to complement the Bike- there, and replace it here with a fancy slatted Tread+.
- convert the weird-ass painted concrete back room in the mountain house basement that leads to the similarly odd giant torture chamber/storage area to a proper bathroom, so that it's both usable for people in that side of the basement and makes heading to and using the sauna off of it actually something we want to do, vs the current situation of just ignoring the whole region.
- Powerwalls for Denver houseedit: see one post below. DOA.
- get stucco/EIFS cleaned up if that's possible to do. it's ratty along its lower edges in particular. perhaps repaint the house from its salmon color at that time. a nice dark blue perhaps?
- replace closet doors from their mirrored state to wooden ones.
yeah, getting a late start on a sunny Sunday: would have been a shitshow and a half.Good call *not* going to LOTB.
I think I only saw two cyclists and just a handful of hikers as I descended it from the top on my loop. Probably about 12:30 when I reached LOTB. Lots looked busy at the bottom though as I passed above them.Good call *not* going to LOTB.
what is this wizardry you employedI think I only saw two cyclists and just a handful of hikers as I descended it from the top on my loop. Probably about 12:30 when I reached LOTB. Lots looked busy at the bottom though as I passed above them.
I'd come via several other parks to reach the top, definitely no vehicle and parking involvedwhat is this wizardry you employed
they probably all turned off at Rutabega. But still they should have been climbing to there
Oh, I saw your Strava track. Just wizardry in disappearing peopleI'd come via several other parks to reach the top, definitely no vehicle and parking involved
I saw a GMC Denali/Tahoe/whatever pulling a not small camper trailer on the weekend. Made me wonder what you'd think.Today's rear axle weight check: a Ram 3500 SRW Mega Cab (almost certainly 4x4) with the Cummins, towing an Avalanche 5th wheel. I thought it said "RK" on the model as I passed it but I guess I misread as 338GK is the nearest match.
images here in case you all have forgotten what a generic 5th wheel and a 3500 Mega Cab looks like
Toshi Clark (@toshi.clark) on Threads
Today's rear axle weight check: a Ram 3500 SRW Mega Cab (almost certainly 4x4) with the Cummins, towing an Avalanche 5th wheel. I thought it said "RK" on the model as I passed it but I guess I misread as 338GK is the nearest match. That's a 12,685 lb trailer. 2,790 lb empty hitch weight and...www.threads.net
That's a 12,685 lb trailer. 2,790 lb empty hitch weight and 2,815 carrying capacity, so by the math that'd be 3,409 lb hitch weight at max trailer GVWR.
Assuming a 2022 there are actually a ton of different possibilities on that towing guide even with the Mega Cab and Cummins as fixed values. Let's further assume no Rambox and the max GVWR possible for SRW. Then that'd be a 12,300 GVWR, 4,130 lb payload, 3,151 unladen weight on the rear axle against a 7,000 lb rear GAWR. 32,710 GCWR.
So while certainly better than a 2500 SRW 4,130 lb - optional equipment on his truck - 3,409 lb doesn't leave a whole lot of room for passengers, the 5th wheel hitch itself (easily 100 lb!), and anything else in the bed or back seat. Should've got the DRW.
thus ends this episode. fini
Both of these are actually moving forward! maybe.things I'd like to housing-wise in the medium term future after these above goals are accomplished, in rough descending order of priority:
- get mountain house deck reinforced for a hot tub, and then crane in a hot tub. to this end I've now emailed all of the builders listed in the Grand County directory. I have a feeling this isn't ultimately happening, though, and this isn't something I can DIY.
- replace the deprecated, old-ass NG boiler supplying domestic hot water and the radiant floors alike at the mountain house with a newer, serviceable heat pump + NG backup system. the state of electrical service to the house might make this infeasible without a five figure panel and service upgrade, in which case I'd put this off and just replace it with another NG boiler when it starts to fail. recall it was shaky for a bit but Hydrotek got it working ok again a year or two ago. I'd inquired with Arctic Heat Pumps way back in February regarding this, and they finally got back to me! I sent them my therm usage data for sizing out such a system.
similar but different: my former co-worker's setupToday's rear axle weight check: a Ram 3500 SRW Mega Cab (almost certainly 4x4) with the Cummins, towing an Avalanche 5th wheel. I thought it said "RK" on the model as I passed it but I guess I misread as 338GK is the nearest match.
images here in case you all have forgotten what a generic 5th wheel and a 3500 Mega Cab looks like
Toshi Clark (@toshi.clark) on Threads
Today's rear axle weight check: a Ram 3500 SRW Mega Cab (almost certainly 4x4) with the Cummins, towing an Avalanche 5th wheel. I thought it said "RK" on the model as I passed it but I guess I misread as 338GK is the nearest match. That's a 12,685 lb trailer. 2,790 lb empty hitch weight and...www.threads.net
That's a 12,685 lb trailer. 2,790 lb empty hitch weight and 2,815 carrying capacity, so by the math that'd be 3,409 lb hitch weight at max trailer GVWR.
Assuming a 2022 there are actually a ton of different possibilities on that towing guide even with the Mega Cab and Cummins as fixed values. Let's further assume no Rambox and the max GVWR possible for SRW. Then that'd be a 12,300 GVWR, 4,130 lb payload, 3,151 unladen weight on the rear axle against a 7,000 lb rear GAWR. 32,710 GCWR.
So while certainly better than a 2500 SRW 4,130 lb - optional equipment on his truck - 3,409 lb doesn't leave a whole lot of room for passengers, the 5th wheel hitch itself (easily 100 lb!), and anything else in the bed or back seat. Should've got the DRW.
thus ends this episode. fini
her neck is more brown, reallyYour co-worker is a total redneck? NTTAWWT.
Redneck is a state of mind, man... supported by quad-cab 8' bed Cummins Dodge pickups and MONSTROUS RV's.
I mean, if you work backwards from the trailer weight you can't really use anything smaller.Redneck is a state of mind, man... supported by quad-cab 8' bed Cummins Dodge pickups and MONSTROUS RV's.
No - it's all fuckin' stupid. But people want to "camp" without any of the actual stuff that comes along with "camping"...I mean, if you work backwards from the trailer weight you can't really use anything smaller.
and the 8' bed/long wheelbase ones tow better, plus it's not like most garages can fit the "short" one anyway. in Ford-land at least 8' vs 6' 9" bed also gets you bigger fuel tanks, which seems to be a good thing when towing massive trailers about.
the question would be whether the diesel is worth it, but since the Ram gas option is the lackluster 6.4 then there ya go.
it makes sense. if you start with the assumption of a 35' 5th wheel up front, that is.