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Andeh

Customer Title
Mar 3, 2020
996
973
it's beyond us all why a private US company has claimed ownership of LEO for them to abuse it and pollute it as they please.
It's beyond me why anyone buys any Musk product when he's shown that he'll pull the plug on individuals who say mean things about him on the internet. (Bricking a Tesla after owner posts videos of the awful "Full Self Driving" crashing into things, threatening to pull the plug on StarLink in Ukraine after they laughed at his farce of a peace proposal.) Billionaires are cancer.
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
lol?

as soon as starship is ready deploying those satellites will be way cheaper
Way cheaper doesn't mean 5$ to launch a satelite and they also cost money to build.

Even by their own calculations they will never reach profitability unless people who have access to broadband and 5g will go "ok I want an inferior experience for more money" or suddenly people in developing nations will get richer by orders of magnitude.
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
Way cheaper doesn't mean 5$ to launch a satelite and they also cost money to build.

Even by their own calculations they will never reach profitability unless people who have access to broadband and 5g will go "ok I want an inferior experience for more money" or suddenly people in developing nations will get richer by orders of magnitude.
most eastern states in germany have dsl or worse, there are a lot of potential customers. you leave berlin and with a lot of luck you‘d get lte, edge or nothing is the norm.
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
most eastern states in germany have dsl or worse, there are a lot of potential customers. you leave berlin and with a lot of luck you‘d get lte, edge or nothing is the norm.
They said they projecy 30 bilion usd per year in revenue. I doubt eastern germany can provide that. Last time I checked my family in Maisen is not willing to pay 10k per year to spread their 7th day adventist bs

Also dude. Again.
1. Kessler problem
2. It still costs a lot to send a satelite to space
3. It still costs a lot to build satelites
4. Just go to a higher orbit. You need fewer satelites, costs go down, all that suffers is latency which is only an issue for gaming.


Stop hyping bs technology. This is typical musk. He ignores there are better solutions to some ideas because he is insanely impractical. He got lucky buying into 2 companies where that impracticality was an asset. He sucks everywhere else. He even screwed himself over by trying to fully automate his factories (since you know learning from other company mistakes is dumb)
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
yes, just the fuel costs. for 400 satellites instead of 60. should bring the costsdown by a lot

re: automated production: do you know what a giga press is and what it does? and how many robots the other oem need to produce the same car parts?
 
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canadmos

Cake Tease
May 29, 2011
20,190
19,156
Canaderp
yes, just the fuel costs. for 400 satellites instead of 60. should bring the costsdown by a lot

re: automated production: do you know what a giga press is and what it does? and how many robots the other oem need to produce the same car parts?
Come over here and I'll show you the plants where I work, where the presses are much bigger than those.

Look up what a transfer press is. Some of them are bigger than houses.

There are others that are even bigger. I went to a stamping facility and saw a machine continously ingesting red hot steel and was spitting out doors or whatever on the other side.

What's wrong with robots? Sure you have a fancy press, how do you think material gets fed into and out of it?


Oh and I'll also show you where a good portion of Tesla parts come from. :rofl:
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
yes, just the fuel costs. for 400 satellites instead of 60. should bring the costsdown by a lot

re: automated production: do you know what a giga press is and what it does? and how many robots the other oem need to produce the same car parts?
Dude. Again. By their own calculations they need 30 billion in yearly revenue. That won't happen. Not to mention many people claim they need more.

All your comments are "cost will go down by a magic amount and then starlink will be profitable because magic".

Not to mention again KESSLER PROBLEM. 42k satelites. 10 the current amount. They also don't drop from orbit as fast as Musk promised. This has potentially catastrophic consequeneces.

I will give you some quotes

Of course, all of this is predicated upon Starlink's ability to attract -- and support -- enough users to generate $30 billion in annual revenue. At current pricing -- roughly $99 a month or $1,200 per year, per user, for internet service, this implies a customer base of 25 million is needed to reach $30 billion in annual revenue.
Problem is, even once Starlink has all 12,000 of its planned satellites in orbit (it has fewer than 2,000 today), the combined bandwidth of all these satellites won't support more than 2.8 million users utilizing the service at advertised minimum rates of 100 megabits per second (Mbps) of download speed.

Musk has implicitly acknowledged this constraint, noting in a recent tweet that "Starlink can only support a limited number of users in [any given] area".
So then they need more satelite which means they need more annual revenue. Where is the real break even point? I have no clue but do you really think there are tens of milions of people who:
1. Live in developed countries
2. Are middle class or above to afford $100 (realistically more since we expect Musk to Raise prices)
3. In places in those developed countries where there is no better alternative. We are talking millions of people in developed countries, in rural areas, willing to spend on high speed internet. Have in mind that most of poland has LTA. Most of most Euro countries have majority LTE coverage.

You also assume places with lagging internet service like Germany will not make their LTE better. DO you seriously think Starlink will put up 42k satelites in Orbit before Germany fixes their LTE range?
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,648
3,089
DO you seriously think Starlink will put up 42k satelites in Orbit before Germany fixes their LTE range?
While I otherwise agree with you, I sadly have to say that Starlink will for sure have 42k satellites in orbit before even the planning of the German LTE expansion is approved. Digital 3rd World country. :disgust1:
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
While I otherwise agree with you, I sadly have to say that Starlink will for sure have 42k satellites in orbit before even the planning of the German LTE expansion is approved. Digital 3rd World country. :disgust1:
I know how slow germany is in terms of coms tech. "technically" i am a coms tech engineer and I have family in germany but even with their slow rollout most people will still have some decent internet in the next 10 years. Decent as in at least competitive to satelite net. Not to mention at least some lands like Bavaria have good LTE coverage. I never found a place without good range when visiting my family there and they live in the most remote, non turisty, farm land I have a stuffed badger on my window part of that place
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
Dude. Again. By their own calculations they need 30 billion in yearly revenue. That won't happen. Not to mention many people claim they need more.

All your comments are "cost will go down by a magic amount and then starlink will be profitable because magic".

Not to mention again KESSLER PROBLEM. 42k satelites. 10 the current amount. They also don't drop from orbit as fast as Musk promised. This has potentially catastrophic consequeneces.

I will give you some quotes





So then they need more satelite which means they need more annual revenue. Where is the real break even point? I have no clue but do you really think there are tens of milions of people who:
1. Live in developed countries
2. Are middle class or above to afford $100 (realistically more since we expect Musk to Raise prices)
3. In places in those developed countries where there is no better alternative. We are talking millions of people in developed countries, in rural areas, willing to spend on high speed internet. Have in mind that most of poland has LTA. Most of most Euro countries have majority LTE coverage.

You also assume places with lagging internet service like Germany will not make their LTE better. DO you seriously think Starlink will put up 42k satelites in Orbit before Germany fixes their LTE range?
how about you use recent numbers? 12k was the first version, since then they changed their design already a few times. the 42000th satellite will look way different then today’s version which looks nothing like the v1. they constantly update their design, same as tesla…
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
I know how slow germany is in terms of coms tech. "technically" i am a coms tech engineer and I have family in germany but even with their slow rollout most people will still have some decent internet in the next 10 years. Decent as in at least competitive to satelite net. Not to mention at least some lands like Bavaria have good LTE coverage. I never found a place without good range when visiting my family there and they live in the most remote, non turisty, farm land I have a stuffed badger on my window part of that place
starlink is the favorite solution for remote areas in germany right now, they even think about sponsoring the hardware…
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
how about you use recent numbers? 12k was the first version, since then they changed their design already a few times. the 42000th satellite will look way different then today’s version which looks nothing like the v1. they constantly update their design, same as tesla…
So quote me on recent numbers? They still said they need 30 bilion in revenue and they still said there won't be enough bandwith for everyone in some areas.

Also is your argument "you cant criticize them on the specifics because they will be better".

Honest question. Why do you have so much hope for it AS A BUSINESS? I get that as a user in internet poor germany it's possibly a great product but what makes you think their business will work? Since you give no specifics and go all on hope. I think you mistake too things

1. Starink being a good product
2. Starling being a good business

1. Is true.2 is not. It has a moviepass problem.

Also since this guy did it better than I can just watch this vid. Even if outdated there is so much to criticize here:
 

djjohnr

Turbo Monkey
Apr 21, 2002
3,001
1,693
Northern California
Starlink is a massive leap forward for anyone that lives in remote areas. By comparison Hughes was like using a dial-up-modem. For people like my in-laws virtual doctor visits where never an option with previous satellite options; now they are.
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
Starlink is a massive leap forward for anyone that lives in remote areas. By comparison Hughes was like using a dial-up-modem. For people like my in-laws virtual doctor visits where never an option with previous satellite options; now they are.
Not my argument. It's a great product. It helps people a lot in those areas (though I wonder how newer competing geo solutions work as compared to it)

My argument is that despite being a great product it's not a sustainable business and it may also be a massive leap backwards for earth as a planet if we kill our orbit with too many satelites. Though I'd focus on the business aspect. Their calculations are uber optimistic and don't' take into account that with growth come extra costs. So it's more of a case "use it til it lasts" since I doubt IN ITS CURRENT FORM it will ever be profitable.
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
why do you measure something in the future with today’s standard? 20 years ago umts was like the future and uber fast. is it the law that starlink in 20 years will have today’s speed?
 

SylentK

Turbo Monkey
Feb 25, 2004
2,287
854
coloRADo
I don't know. Does anyone here think there's enough raw material to make that many batteries to satisfy an electric vehicle mandate?

My vote is no. Back to steam! We could even use toilet water. Or Gatorade for that matter! (a little Idiocracy movie reference there) HA :)
 

canadmos

Cake Tease
May 29, 2011
20,190
19,156
Canaderp
Go talk to real people on the streets, there is still not a huge demand for electric vehicles.

Bring down the costs, charge times, get the govmint back on the rebate programs etc etc and there might be more uptake.
 

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,346
1,587
Warsaw :/
Go talk to real people on the streets, there is still not a huge demand for electric vehicles.

Bring down the costs, charge times, get the govmint back on the rebate programs etc etc and there might be more uptake.
Depends on the country tho and on the use. The main customer base seems to weirdly be people who live in cities with good public transport who want to sit in trafic. Tbh I'd not mind and electric car but I need a good fast charging network as otherwise long trips will be even more of a hussle than poor student times when then I had an LPG car (Germans can you explain to me why you have 2144 LPG connector standards ? ).


Btw. I really wonder what real ranges of all electric pickups will be once you are towing something. I know someone tested 1 (I think a Ford?) and the range while Towing was laughable.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,648
3,089
The main customer base seems to weirdly be people who live in cities with good public transport who want to sit in trafic.
That has to do with range and disposable income. Only rich fucks can afford EVs ATM. At the same time they can generate an image of themselves as environmental conscious and can look down on the plebs and how "stuck in the past" these are.
 

sethimus

neu bizutch
Feb 5, 2006
4,881
2,132
not in Whistler anymore :/
That has to do with range and disposable income. Only rich fucks can afford EVs ATM. At the same time they can generate an image of themselves as environmental conscious and can look down on the plebs and how "stuck in the past" these are.

“A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It's where the rich use public transportation.”

― Gustavo Petro
 

Gary

"S" is for "neo-luddite"
Aug 27, 2002
7,536
5,470
UK
Only rich fucks can afford EVs ATM.
Granted. They're out of reach for the poor. But considering the amount of (not rich) families here who lease Range Rovers I don't see how an Electric car would be out of reach. There are an estimated 5 million lease cars in the UK and we only have 30million drivers.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,648
3,089
Granted. They're out of reach for the poor. But considering the amount of (not rich) families here who lease Range Rovers I don't see how an Electric car would be out of reach. There are an estimated 5 million lease cars in the UK and we only have 30million drivers.
At least here, most EVs cannot be leased because demand is so high that they rather sell them. I was looking into that to minimize my risk as I usually do not buy 1. generation anything.