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Uh oh! Housing Bubble Newz

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Oh lovely... I have 2 spec's ready for sale too....



Number of Unsold Homes Hits Record High
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON - The backlog of unsold new homes reached a record level last month, as sales slipped despite the warmest January in more than 100 years.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.233 million units last month.

That was the slowest pace since January 2005 and left the number of unsold homes at a record high of 528,000.

Analysts viewed the new data as further evidence that the nation's red-hot housing market, which hit record sales levels for five straight years, has definitely started to cool.

"The decline in new home sales in January makes it clear that there is some real softening in the housing market, said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

The 5 percent decline was bigger than expected, dashing hopes that the milder-than-normal January would help to bolster demand. The warm weather had pushed up the level of construction starts last month by 14.5 percent, the fastest rate in three decades.

But the new report showed that with sales lagging, the increase in building activity left a total of 528,000 new homes still for sale at the end of the month, a nine-year high.

Even with the softening in sales, prices were up in January with the median price climbing to $238,100, up 4 percent from December, but below the all-time high of $243,900 set in October.

For the past few years, home prices have been surging at double-digit rates, gains that analysts said will likely slow now that sales are softening and inventories of unsold-homes are rising.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, predicted "real downward pressure on prices over the next few months."

David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said surveys showed that the number of builders who are throwing in various amenities for free in order to move homes has risen to 41 percent.

Seiders predicted that home price gains, which were running around 12 percent last year, will slow to about 6 percent this year.

He said a lot of this year's change will reflect less speculative investor activity and more sales spurred by people desiring to live in the homes. "Hopefully, that is all that is developing here," Seiders said.

Some economists are worried that with the inventory of unsold homes rising, there could be significant downward pressure on home prices, triggering a chain-reaction similar to the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000, a development that contributed to the 2001 recession.

But new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress earlier this month that for now he was looking for a moderate slowdown in the housing industry, not a crash.

The 5 percent January drop in sales followed a revised 3.8 percent increase in December and was the biggest setback since a 7 percent drop in November.

The biggest decline in sales was a 14.9 percent decrease in sales in the Northeast, which followed an even bigger 23 percent plunge in sales in December. Sales in the Midwest were down 10.8 percent after having risen by 21.2 percent in December.

In the South, sales fell by 10.3 percent in January, following a 1.2 percent gain in December.

Bucking the national trend, sales in the West posted an 11.3 percent increase in January after a 6.3 percent gain in December.

Mortgage rates have been rising gradually with the 30-year mortgage now at 6.26 percent, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey. Many analysts believe 30-year mortgages will rise to between 6.5 percent to 7 percent by the end of this year.

They think that increase will be enough to trim sales of both new and existing homes and slow the double-digit gains in prices seen in recent years. The National Association of Realtors reported earlier this month that a record 72 metropolitan areas saw double-digit gains in home prices in the final three months of 2005 compared with price levels at the end of 2004.
 

stosh

Darth Bailer
Jul 20, 2001
22,248
408
NY
I'll be getting in the market this summer... I some how may have hit the market right for buying.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,797
21,806
Sleazattle
Went throught the minutes of the local planning board this weekend. Every large parcel of land available in the county has some dumbass trying to build a housing development on it. If all are approved the available housing in the county would double, but the projected area job growth is only 5%.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
42,772
14,857
Portland, OR
That's what happend to my house back in 2000. When we bought it, the price was $140k for 1500 sqft, then a builder bought out the remaing 30 lots and built these massive 3500 sqft houses on the same size lot for $190k. When we went to sell, there was 26 vacant houses, so nobody even looked at ours for 8 months. We sold for $124k and I was just happy to be out of it.

I will wait for the "POP" before I buy again, houses are crazy around here.
 

firetoole

duch bag
Nov 19, 2004
1,910
0
Wooo Tulips!!!!
I got a letter from My city today saying that My appraisal changed from 66,700 to 67,080 ??? which is funny because I bought it 2 years ago for 130,000 not quite sure what the guy was smoking when he appraised but I don't mind paying taxes on 67,080 :D
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
firetoole said:
I got a letter from My city today saying that My appraisal changed from 66,700 to 67,080 ??? which is funny because I bought it 2 years ago for 130,000 not quite sure what the guy was smoking when he appraised but I don't mind paying taxes on 67,080 :D
uh...that's cool if you never plan on moving.....i guess. :confused:
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,177
377
Bay Area, California
stosh said:
I'll be getting in the market this summer... I some how may have hit the market right for buying.
The market is good for first time buyers, interest rates are still good and hosung prices are starting to drop. Back around 2000-2001 there was also a lull in the real estate market, and it surged up again. It will gradually come to a halt, then in 2-5 years it will pick up steam again. I just hope it doesn't cool down 100% right now we just relisted our house 4 days ago.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
65
behind the viewfinder
Joe Pozer said:
You'll probably be alright...

Bucking the national trend, sales in the West posted an 11.3 percent increase in January after a 6.3 percent gain in December.
so is that stat for total sales, or average sale price?

and does 'the west' mean 'the bay area'?
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
:think:

Cancelled Home Orders: Latest Bubble Prick?

A recent member survey by NAHB found one in five reporting more cancellations of new home orders than six months earlier, with 4% saying that the increase in cancellations was significant. “When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried,” said the association’s chief economist, David Seiders. Of those who said they experienced an increase in cancellations, 45% said it was due to a buyer’s inability to sell their existing home and a third cited buyers not being able to qualify for financing at a time of rising mortgage rates. But the concern of Seiders and others is that cancellations are being driven by real estate investors who were ordering homes with the intention of selling them quickly in a hot real estate market. “If you’ve overbuilt the market and sales get cancelled, you have to do something with the homes,” Seiders said. “The incentives we’re seeing builders offering are clearly designed to support prices and stop cancellations.”
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
42,772
14,857
Portland, OR
It depends on where the new home is built. My old (it was new) sucked because all the trees were little. My house now is surrounded by 100+ year old trees and it's nice. Shade is a good thing.
 

brungeman

I give a shirt
Jan 17, 2006
5,170
0
da Burgh
Transcend said:
It's about time. All these new homes are encroaching on my view of the mountains.
I'm with you!!! I cant stand driving to work and seeing farmland turning into crappy new home sites especially when there are tons of new home plans in the area with vacant houses or houses for sale!!! WTF:mumble: how about this... a new high end plan in the area called "Treesdale" looks like one of N8's housing plans with no trees!!! I think someone should go in and sue for false advertising!!!

What ever happened to leaving some nice scenery around our neighborhoods?:dead:
 

-dustin

boring
Jun 10, 2002
7,155
1
austin
but cookie cutter houses are so awesome! and the interior allows for so much self-expression, who cares about the outsides.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
the Inbred said:
but cookie cutter houses are so awesome! and the interior allows for so much self-expression, who cares about the outsides.
Cookie cutter homes are affordable... mass production is the key.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
N8 said:
There are too many people... abortion is the answer!
30 something architects who design ugly weeping mortar houses to build block upon block of are too old to abort. It's easier just to run them over with their own gas guzzling, soccer mom SUV.
 

brungeman

I give a shirt
Jan 17, 2006
5,170
0
da Burgh
N8 said:
What an energy hog...

N8, :clue: if you look at several of the architects that designed Craftsman style houses they incorporated things like passive solar heating and large overhangs for shade... OH and they left TREES to help shade the houses... They didn't only rely on mechanical devices to heat and cool... so energy saving was on their minds... and if you read Ciarans original post he said some upgrades I would imagine that would mean energy efficient windows and doors, and a nice kitchen!!!:thumb:
 

Ciaran

Fear my banana
Apr 5, 2004
9,841
19
So Cal
Transcend said:
Housing developers should be shot.

Bad construction, blocks of the same ugly, shoddy design and a waste as there are currently plenty of houses to go around.
Here in Pasadena the trend seems to be that the Asian folks come in and buy a nice old house and then demolish it to put in these awful ugly eyesore mcmansions up. Collumns and golden lion statues do not make for great architecture.

Housing developers should be shot.

brungeman said:
N8, :clue: if you look at several of the architects that designed Craftsman style houses they incorporated things like passive solar heating and large overhangs for shade... OH and they left TREES to help shade the houses... They didn't only rely on mechanical devices to heat and cool... so energy saving was on their minds... and if you read Ciarans original post he said some upgrades I would imagine that would mean energy efficient windows and doors, and a nice kitchen!!!:thumb:
Yup!
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
Ciaran said:
Here in Pasadena the trend seems to be that the Asian folks come in and buy a nice old house and then demolish it to put in these awful ugly eyesore mcmansions up. Collumns and golden lion statues do not make for great architecture.

Housing developers should be shot.
Man, you gotta see this massive neighborhood near me. 800 000+ residents, mostly wealthy asians. It's insane how true this is! They LOVE the golden lion and the 3 story white columns, not to mention interlocking brick driveways.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Ciaran said:
Here in Pasadena the trend seems to be that the Asian folks come in and buy a nice old house and then demolish it to put in these awful ugly eyesore mcmansions up. Collumns and golden lion statues do not make for great architecture.

Housing developers should be shot.


Yup!

I'm sure you'd like them better if they dressed in tights and waved a sword around... :p
 

Ciaran

Fear my banana
Apr 5, 2004
9,841
19
So Cal
Transcend said:
Man, you gotta see this massive neighborhood near me. 800 000+ residents, mostly wealthy asians. It's insane how true this is! They LOVE the golden lion and the 3 story white columns, not to mention interlocking brick driveways.
Oh man! I forgot about the interlocking brick driveway! They love those.
N8 said:
I'm sure you'd like them better if they dressed in tights and waved a sword around... :p
N8, N8, N8.... you always seem to have images of guys in tights waving their "swords" around on your mind. I think you are getting too metro for your own good.

FWIW I have NEVER worn tights. Us early period folks wear PANTS. No lace, no tights. Though I am sure that N8 would love to see me in tights. :think: :p
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Ciaran said:
Oh man! I forgot about the interlocking brick driveway! They love those.

N8, N8, N8.... you always seem to have images of guys in tights waving their "swords" around on your mind. I think you are getting too metro for your own good.

FWIW I have NEVER worn tights. Us early period folks wear PANTS. No lace, no tights. Though I am sure that N8 would love to see me in tights. :think: :p

You wear pants or trousers?
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Ciaran said:
Pants, trousers... same thing...

I'm the short one (of course)... see the pants?


Lemme see.. I know there is a pic of a dude? wearing a peter pan outfit and waving a sword someplace on RM...
 

Ciaran

Fear my banana
Apr 5, 2004
9,841
19
So Cal
N8 said:
Lemme see.. I know there is a pic of a dude? wearing a peter pan outfit and waving a sword someplace on RM...
Aw man, don't be a Burly Shirley.





This thread's been nicely derailed.