[syadasti]

Enough N8 BS, how about an unbiased look at polls and how they have been changing...

Warm Bread Revisited
Bush isn't toast. Neither is Kerry.
By William Saletan
Posted Tuesday, Sept. 7, 2004, at 2:53 PM PT

A month ago, after John Kerry's convention, I flagged trends in several national polls and concluded that President Bush was in serious trouble. Now that Bush has had his convention, let's look at fresh numbers and re-examine those trends.

1. The bounce. Kerry gained substantially in several measures after the Democratic Convention. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll before the convention, voters agreed by a 12-point margin that he had "the personality and leadership qualities a president should have." After the convention, the margin rose to 20—eight points higher than the margin for Bush on the same question. Before the convention, by a 51-43 margin, voters trusted Bush rather than Kerry "to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military." After the convention, the candidates were even.

Where do those numbers stand in the same poll after the GOP convention? Likely voters now agree by only a six-point margin that Kerry has "the personality and leadership qualities a president should have." That's six points below where he started and 13 points below the margin for Bush on the same question. Bad news for him. But voters now trust Bush rather than Kerry "to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military" by just a six-point margin. That's two points better for Kerry than where he started before the Democratic Convention.

2. Trial heats. In the CNN poll after the Democratic Convention, Bush led 48-47. In an American Research Group poll, Kerry led 49-45. In a Newsweek poll taken on the last night of the convention and the night afterward, Kerry's lead jumped from 47-44 to 49-42. Looking at Kerry's vote share in these and other polls—50 and 48, respectively, in the case of ABC News/Washington Post and CBS News/New York Times surveys conducted around the same time—I wrote, "Kerry is that close to making a Bush victory mathematically impossible."

Now the threat is reversed. Bush stands at 52 among likely voters in the CNN poll and among registered voters in surveys by Newsweek and Time. The margin in the Newsweek poll ballooned suspiciously on the night of Bush's speech, as it did on the night of Kerry's speech. But three polls converging on the number 52 can't be ignored. Based on that number, Bush would win even if no undecided voters showed up for the incumbent on Election Day.

Two other surveys—ARG and Zogby—tell a different story. Zogby has Bush leading 46-43 among likely voters. ARG has the race tied at 47 among registered voters. If those numbers hold, the maxim that undecideds stay home or vote for the challenger suggests that Bush's number is still too low. Many reporters and strategists don't trust Zogby or ARG. But the heat-of-the-moment schedule of the Time and Newsweek convention polls (in addition to what critics see as oversampling of Republicans) makes them dubious, too.

3. Bush's ceiling. A month ago, I observed that on Newsweek's re-elect question—"Would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term as president, or not?"—the percentage saying Bush deserved re-election hadn't risen above 46 all year, and the percentage saying he didn't deserve re-election hadn't fallen below 50. That ceiling has now been shattered. Bush wins that question 53-43 in the latest Newsweek survey—a 20-point net reversal from a month ago. In the Time survey, Bush's previous high score on the re-elect question this year was 49. Now it's 51.

Again, Zogby and ARG tell a different story. After Kerry's convention, I noted that in ARG trial heats going back to February, Bush hadn't risen above 46. That's still true among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush stands at 48. But that's still dangerously low. I also pointed out that on Zogby's re-elect question—"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?"—the percentage saying Bush deserved to be re-elected hadn't risen above 45 since February, and the percentage saying it was time for someone new hadn't fallen below 51. Now Bush has lowered the "time for someone new" number to 48—enough to give him a chance. But the "deserves re-election" number is still perilously low at 46.

I see three salient lessons in these numbers. First, Bush has broken the ceiling that appeared to limit him all year. Even if his gains from the GOP convention fade, several polls now provide evidence that enough voters are open to him to carry him to victory. This wasn't true before his convention. It is now. This is enormously important.

Second, Kerry's position isn't nearly as dire as many Democrats imagine. He has maintained some of the gains from his own convention. And two of the five major polls released since the Republican Convention show him holding the incumbent three to four points below 50, with a Bush lead somewhere between zero and the margin of error. That's nothing to write home about. It's nothing to write in your suicide note, either.

William Saletan is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.

 

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Advantage Bush
New ABC Poll Shows Bush in Lead

Sept. 9, 2004— The 2004 campaign enters its decisive phase with the advantage to President Bush, who has reasserted his personal and professional credentials, effectively driven up John Kerry's negatives and broken through to a lead in likely voters' preferences.

According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, registered voters by a 27-point margin now say Bush has taken a clearer stand than Kerry on the issues, by 27 points call Bush the stronger leader and by 19 points say he would make the country safer. Bush also has a 22-point advantage in trust to handle terrorism, a 16-point lead on Iraq and perhaps a slight edge even on the lukewarm economy.

Read the rest: http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_campaign_poll_040909.html

 

[N8 v2.0]

AP Poll: Bush Holds Lead Over Kerry
AP | 10 Sept 2004 | Ron Fournier

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush opens the fall campaign with a slight lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry, an Associated Press poll shows, as voters express growing confidence in the direction of the country and the performance of the incumbent.

Seven weeks before Election Day, the Republican is considered significantly more decisive, strong and likable than Kerry, and he has strengthened his position on virtually every issue important to voters, from the war in Iraq and creating jobs - two sources of criticism - to matters of national security and values.

Since the Democratic National Convention ended in late July, the president has erased any gains Kerry had achieved while reshaping the political landscape in his favor: Nearly two-thirds of voters think protecting the country is more important than creating jobs, and Bush is favored over Kerry by a whopping 23 percentage points on who would keep the United States safe.

"If we don't take care of the terrorists, we certainly won't have to worry about the economy," said Janet Cross, 57, of Portsmouth, Ohio, who switched from Democrat to Republican for the last election.

Among those most likely to vote, the Republican ticket of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney holds a lead of 51 percent to 46 percent over Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 1 percent.

The AP-Ipsos-Public Affairs poll showed minorities, urban residents and other Democratic voters unified behind Kerry, as would be expected in the fall. But he lost ground in virtually every other demographic group: lower educated voters, suburbanites, rural voters, the middle class, married couples and baby boomers.

Many voters seemed to be retreating to Bush's camp after flirting with the Democrat, whose nominating convention focused almost exclusively on his Vietnam War record. For example, those in the GOP-leaning South narrowly favored Kerry in early August, but now support Bush 58 percent to 38 percent.

Among all registered voters, Bush-Cheney led the Democratic ticket 51 percent to 43 percent, a modest bounce in support since early August, when Kerry-Edwards led 48-45 percent.

The reversal is the result of a month of GOP-inspired criticism of Kerry's war record combined with a Republican National Convention scripted to undercut the Democrat's credibility and cast Bush as a steady commander in chief, said strategists in both campaigns.

"There's something I don't like about Kerry - too wishy-washy," said Don Dooley, a 54-year-old conservative Democrat from Grand Prairie, Texas, who is leaning toward Bush. "George is not the ideal kind of person, but at least he's more predictable than Kerry."

The question now is whether Bush's gains are as temporary as they were for Kerry - or the first sign of a fundamental shift in the race.

"I don't know if we know that yet," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd, "but I think there's beginning to be some permanence to it." He said the president could settle into a lead of 3 or 4 percentage points, which could only be upset by a major event, such as the presidential debates.

Democrats predicted the race will be even in the next week or two, especially in the dozen or so states where the election will be decided.

"They had a convention and got a bounce just like we had a convention and got a bounce," said Kerry pollster Mark Mellman. He said Bush's gains were already eroding, pointing to polls taken during and after the convention that gave the president a double-digit lead.

For the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination, the AP-Ipsos poll suggests that a majority of voters approve of the president's job performance - 52 percent. The lifts him out of the danger zone for incumbents.

The percentage of voters who think the country is on the right track rose from 39 percent to 44 percent since August. The nation's spirits, while less than buoyant, are higher than when Democratic President Clinton was re-elected in 1996, polls show.

Bush has fought an uphill battle against voter anxiety, fueled by the loss of nearly 1 million jobs during his term, rising health care costs and a war in Iraq that has led to more than 1,000 U.S. military deaths.

Half of voters approve of Bush's handling of the economy, up from 46 percent in August and the highest since January. His approval rating for the war on terrorism increased from 51 percent to 55 percent.

Voters were slightly more likely to say a candidate's positions on issues is more important than leadership and personal qualities. Of those who cited issues, Kerry was favored by 10 percentage points. People making a gut-level choice overwhelming favored Bush, 65-29 percent.

On the question of who can be trusted to protect the country, Bush gained 7 percentage points and Kerry lost the same amount - a 14-point swing. The shift was just as big on decisiveness, with 75 percent assigning that trait to Bush and just 37 percent saying they would use that word to describe Kerry.

There was a 9-point swing in Bush's favor on the issue of honesty, an 8-point swing on strength and 10-point swing on which candidate would do better creating jobs.

The AP-Ipsos survey of 1,286 registered voters, conducted Sept. 7-9, had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The sample of 899 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.