I could not agree more. I think the Fed and Admin need to tell people to suck it up, be more responsible for the next few years and act like an adult until the mess is fixed with the next Admin.
But they won't admit they screwed up.
warning : we're heading to a recession
- Thread starter LordOpie
- Start date
But they won't admit they screwed up.
I can't imagine, in this environment, that people are going to get their 0% interest credit cards and go out and run up more debt than they already have (and can't pay back)! Then again, I couldn't imagine buying a house 2-3 years ago with for more than I could afford with an interest-only, option ARM either.I could not agree more. I think the Fed and Admin need to tell people to suck it up, be more responsible for the next few years and act like an adult until the mess is fixed with the next Admin.
But they won't admit they screwed up.
I agree, except that managers still have to tell the waiters daily to fill their customers water glasses... sometimes, you have to state the obvious.I can't imagine, in this environment, that people are going to get their 0% interest credit cards and go out and run up more debt than they already have (and can't pay back)! Then again, I couldn't imagine buying a house 2-3 years ago with for more than I could afford with an interest-only, option ARM either.
Also, investor's need to re-set their thinking cuz they have too much control over the marketplace when it comes to Fed and Admin policy.
I didn't mean to imply that I desire a stock market crash, although I've posted to that effect before and just didn't phrase my thoughts right. Artifically inflated markets based on speculation leads to more finacial trouble that becomes harder and harder to recover from. i.e. dot-com, housing, etc.
I would like to see a stabilization of the markets and an allowing of the dollar to regain some strength to prior levels. The Administration has explicitly stated that they would like to offer tax rebated in the hopes that people will go out and spend them immediately. How fiscally irresponsible is that??? They did this last time and it backfired because people put it in the bank or payed off prior debt.
This can't be bailed out and the current Admin is simply trying to band aid this recession, yes, it is a recession, in the hopes of saving or gaining a few votes this fall. Belts need to be tightened and spending may have to slow to actually fall in line with the theory of no more money out than money coming in.
I would like to see a stabilization of the markets and an allowing of the dollar to regain some strength to prior levels. The Administration has explicitly stated that they would like to offer tax rebated in the hopes that people will go out and spend them immediately. How fiscally irresponsible is that??? They did this last time and it backfired because people put it in the bank or payed off prior debt.
This can't be bailed out and the current Admin is simply trying to band aid this recession, yes, it is a recession, in the hopes of saving or gaining a few votes this fall. Belts need to be tightened and spending may have to slow to actually fall in line with the theory of no more money out than money coming in.
It looks like the weak US dollar is already having a pretty big effect on the CAD..I hope the US gets their sh!t straight...I'm meeting to many Canadians who don't realize how dependent Canada is on the US
More bad news on the real estate front. Huge jump in CA foreclosures. From the SF Chronicle.
I also believe that the next large wave of subprime resets are due to hit in Q2 this year.
Goes on to say, as you might expect, that a higher percentage of default notices are ending in foreclosure than in years past.
I also believe that the next large wave of subprime resets are due to hit in Q2 this year.
Canada, the USA's fat best friend.It looks like the weak US dollar is already having a pretty big effect on the CAD..I hope the US gets their sh!t straight...I'm meeting to many Canadians who don't realize how dependent Canada is on the US
I wish the bottom would fall out of the goddam resort market.
get a job, hippie.
no way, Canada's been making us look bad for WAY too long now. probably closer to hot, psychotic friend...
ok, had a friend over for dinner last night who's dir. of ops. for a rather large title company in boulder (his territory is denver), and here are a few things he threw out last night:
- 1/3 of realtors are not renewing their licenses for this year
- the commercial side of their business is the only reason they hit their overall budget (residential was down by half)
- he's laid off over 100 people in the last couple of yrs with almost no hiring
- what we've seen w/ foreclosures in the denver area will be at least matched this year, if not exceeded
the 3/4 pt fed rate cut is evidence of blood in the water; today's the last best day to get liquid for about a year unless something rather significant happens on the Hill, like cut capital gains for businesses. once/month he goes to d.c. & mingles w/ lobbyists, but this good ole boys club is getting more exclusive with less cash floating about.
2 upshots: congress may actually vote whatever conscience they have left w/o being wooed by cash, & the only realtors left have chops. probably have to re-paint a lot of bustop benches now.
- 1/3 of realtors are not renewing their licenses for this year
- the commercial side of their business is the only reason they hit their overall budget (residential was down by half)
- he's laid off over 100 people in the last couple of yrs with almost no hiring
- what we've seen w/ foreclosures in the denver area will be at least matched this year, if not exceeded
the 3/4 pt fed rate cut is evidence of blood in the water; today's the last best day to get liquid for about a year unless something rather significant happens on the Hill, like cut capital gains for businesses. once/month he goes to d.c. & mingles w/ lobbyists, but this good ole boys club is getting more exclusive with less cash floating about.
2 upshots: congress may actually vote whatever conscience they have left w/o being wooed by cash, & the only realtors left have chops. probably have to re-paint a lot of bustop benches now.
part II:
i asked another friend who's a dir. for a private investment firm in manhattan about stuff (we used to smoke a lot of pot together in h.s. - don't ask), and here's the exchange:
i asked another friend who's a dir. for a private investment firm in manhattan about stuff (we used to smoke a lot of pot together in h.s. - don't ask), and here's the exchange:
the questions being:
- how badly does the housing/lending market affect the economy?
- how bad are things on the Street?
- for how long can we expect to feel the pinch on our investments?
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John
Date: Jan 23, 2008 9:50 AM
To: $tinkle
That's the $20k question right now. There are a lot of different
opinions on how badly the housing implosion is going to affect the
overall economy. Consumer spending is 2/3 of overall economic activity,
so to the extent a significant portion of the spending over the last few
years, especially on bigger ticket items, was driven by people spending
money that they had pulled out of their houses through home equity loans
(or was done on credit cards or other financing schemes because people
"felt" richer due to rising home equity), then there could be a pretty
big pullback. That said, the US consumer has had their epitaph written
before only to rise from the ashes. Personally, I think a fair amount
of the pain from a 401k perspective has been felt already as the markets
are down 10-15% this month alone. I feel like worst case is we draw
down another 10%, but I think 5% is more likely. The market definitely
tends to lead the overall economy, so even if we're going into recession
a lot of the pain from a market perspective is probably behind us unless
things get really, really ugly.
- how badly does the housing/lending market affect the economy?
- how bad are things on the Street?
- for how long can we expect to feel the pinch on our investments?
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John
Date: Jan 23, 2008 9:50 AM
To: $tinkle
That's the $20k question right now. There are a lot of different
opinions on how badly the housing implosion is going to affect the
overall economy. Consumer spending is 2/3 of overall economic activity,
so to the extent a significant portion of the spending over the last few
years, especially on bigger ticket items, was driven by people spending
money that they had pulled out of their houses through home equity loans
(or was done on credit cards or other financing schemes because people
"felt" richer due to rising home equity), then there could be a pretty
big pullback. That said, the US consumer has had their epitaph written
before only to rise from the ashes. Personally, I think a fair amount
of the pain from a 401k perspective has been felt already as the markets
are down 10-15% this month alone. I feel like worst case is we draw
down another 10%, but I think 5% is more likely. The market definitely
tends to lead the overall economy, so even if we're going into recession
a lot of the pain from a market perspective is probably behind us unless
things get really, really ugly.
Seems to be aligned right along with what all the other ecperts are saying. As for 401k, I'm not worried about that because I don't plan on retiring, i.e. using it, for another 10-15 years.
With the consumer providing 2/3 of the economy, I still say that flooding the market with new dollars will only cause inflation (hadn't heard of that lately have we?)
But, guess it's a good thing that we may be at bottom. Nowhere to go but up.
With the consumer providing 2/3 of the economy, I still say that flooding the market with new dollars will only cause inflation (hadn't heard of that lately have we?)
But, guess it's a good thing that we may be at bottom. Nowhere to go but up.
posted mortgage rates at Wells Fargo just dropped by 50bp down to 5.125 for a 30y fixed. 
Damn, why couldn't they have been at that rate 2 months ago...
Damn, why couldn't they have been at that rate 2 months ago...
I figure by this time next year I can snatch up my own bank owned McMansion for about a buck-o-five.posted mortgage rates at Wells Fargo just dropped by 50bp down to 5.125 for a 30y fixed.
If I don't end up getting laid off I'm going to become a slum lord.
We better fire up the printing presses.
I'm lookin to buy some property in Colorado Springs since the market there is in the sh!tter.
Nice place.. beautiful location and lots to do
denver's sh|ttier; if i had to do it over & could work from anywhere, i'd choose the western slope or saguache county; whole pile of nothing but wind. i'm getting tired of people in general.
buddy of mine in town is selling his house. base of blodgett peak & butts up to the af academy: appraised at $1.2M but he'll take $975K (nicely equipped). the garage even has a sluice to catch fj queefs
Heard the Shrub talking about the economic stimulus package and he actually refered to our economy as strong and robust right now...WTF?? Doesn't Lord Cheney clear his comments anymore?
Both sides have agreed to give tax rebates to all workers, even the ones who don't earn enough to pay income tax. ????
Maybe in this new world order of stupid economics, my LBS will give me a rebate on the bike I haven't bought!
Just throw another 150 billion onto the defecit and let my kid worry about passing the national debt on to his kids!
Both sides have agreed to give tax rebates to all workers, even the ones who don't earn enough to pay income tax. ????
Maybe in this new world order of stupid economics, my LBS will give me a rebate on the bike I haven't bought!
Just throw another 150 billion onto the defecit and let my kid worry about passing the national debt on to his kids!
a weak economy couldn't [deficit] spend like we do.
see?
i think the reasoning is they still paid fica & ss tax.
and in a twisted, irresponsible way, it will stimulate the economy, and make the co-dependence on the working class even stronger. hell, it straight exploits them, as they are more likely to impulse spend than middle class who would more likely pay down debt, or sock it away into a college fund. i know i am.
If the economy was robust we wouldn't need to deficit spend. Our strong economy is like a trucker who hasn't slept in 5 days but has a garbage bag of full of cocaine. At some point it will crash.
in so many ways, that description is so right.
I'm a pessimist about this economy, but I'm hedging my bets. Did a little buying yesterday morning and it's already up 10%. If I were a day trader I'd be cashing in, but I think this company has some long term prospects.
Yeah well National are so far up the arse of a few small lobby/business groups of a (very) dodgy nature ie the Talleys/FayRichwhite/exclusive bretheren etc etc that I just don't trust them.
Well that and the competence level of their Mp's is still seriously bad when it comes to actual ability to lead and direct.
Labour in spite of the odd bad policy HAS competent MP's when it comes to being ABLE to lead rather than fluster, bluff and bumblef**k everything they try.
Ok I'll stop ranting now.
How the Market Really Works
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html
Humm...
AP
Economists See US Avoiding Recession
Tuesday March 11, 7:36 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Economic Forecast Sees Prolonged Housing Woes but No Recession in 2008
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The U.S. economy will suffer as the slumping housing market eats away at job creation and consumer spending, but the nation should avoid slipping into a recession this year, according to a new economic report.
A recession could still happen though, if the credit crisis that has stifled the housing market deepens, preventing consumers from buying big-ticket items like cars and businesses from spending on equipment, according to the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles.
"We don't see that happening," said Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast released Tuesday. "This is a tough call, but I will be very surprised if this thing actually precipitates into recession."
The forecast anticipates job growth remaining sluggish in 2008, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. The February rate was 4.8 percent.
The forecast expects the economy to post gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009. GDP grew 2.2 percent in 2007, the weakest showing in five years.
The no-recession forecast runs counter to the outlook among many economists and financial pundits, who contend the economy has already started to shrink amid rising unemployment, job losses, record oil prices, and the lingering effects of the housing and credit crises.
The U.S. lost 63,000 payroll jobs last month, the second consecutive month of job losses. The last time the U.S. posted a two-month drop in payroll jobs was in 2003, when employers were still struggling through the aftermath of the 2001 recession.
Leamer said the nation may be experiencing negative economic growth in the current quarter. Economists generally look for at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth before they make a recession determination.
The biggest risk of recession comes from the credit crisis that emerged last year as home values began to tumble and the number of mortgage defaults and foreclosures soared, the economist said.
Major financial institutions were racked by credit losses as the value of securities backed by mortgages sank, causing the traditional outlet through which banks borrow money to seize up.
The credit woes have deepened the housing slump, making it harder for would-be homeowners to borrow money and for homeowners to refinance. But consumer spending, while weakened, hasn't declined severely due to credit problems, Leamer notes.
"Americans are not as wealthy as they thought they were, and that's going to factor into consumer spending going forward, but it doesn't cause a recession because consumers all realize their lack of wealth at different points in time," he said.
Another potential factor in a recession would be widespread job losses. Leamer, who has maintained a no-recession forecast in recent quarters, said that's not likely.
"So far the labor markets are slowing but not collapsing," he said.
The forecast calls for the nation's housing doldrums to continue "for a long time," Leamer said.
He expects housing starts, which fell from a high of 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million units this January, to bottom out in the summer.
AP
Economists See US Avoiding Recession
Tuesday March 11, 7:36 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Economic Forecast Sees Prolonged Housing Woes but No Recession in 2008
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The U.S. economy will suffer as the slumping housing market eats away at job creation and consumer spending, but the nation should avoid slipping into a recession this year, according to a new economic report.
A recession could still happen though, if the credit crisis that has stifled the housing market deepens, preventing consumers from buying big-ticket items like cars and businesses from spending on equipment, according to the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles.
"We don't see that happening," said Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast released Tuesday. "This is a tough call, but I will be very surprised if this thing actually precipitates into recession."
The forecast anticipates job growth remaining sluggish in 2008, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. The February rate was 4.8 percent.
The forecast expects the economy to post gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009. GDP grew 2.2 percent in 2007, the weakest showing in five years.
The no-recession forecast runs counter to the outlook among many economists and financial pundits, who contend the economy has already started to shrink amid rising unemployment, job losses, record oil prices, and the lingering effects of the housing and credit crises.
The U.S. lost 63,000 payroll jobs last month, the second consecutive month of job losses. The last time the U.S. posted a two-month drop in payroll jobs was in 2003, when employers were still struggling through the aftermath of the 2001 recession.
Leamer said the nation may be experiencing negative economic growth in the current quarter. Economists generally look for at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth before they make a recession determination.
The biggest risk of recession comes from the credit crisis that emerged last year as home values began to tumble and the number of mortgage defaults and foreclosures soared, the economist said.
Major financial institutions were racked by credit losses as the value of securities backed by mortgages sank, causing the traditional outlet through which banks borrow money to seize up.
The credit woes have deepened the housing slump, making it harder for would-be homeowners to borrow money and for homeowners to refinance. But consumer spending, while weakened, hasn't declined severely due to credit problems, Leamer notes.
"Americans are not as wealthy as they thought they were, and that's going to factor into consumer spending going forward, but it doesn't cause a recession because consumers all realize their lack of wealth at different points in time," he said.
Another potential factor in a recession would be widespread job losses. Leamer, who has maintained a no-recession forecast in recent quarters, said that's not likely.
"So far the labor markets are slowing but not collapsing," he said.
The forecast calls for the nation's housing doldrums to continue "for a long time," Leamer said.
He expects housing starts, which fell from a high of 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million units this January, to bottom out in the summer.
...mmuH
Considering he posted an article that has an opinion that even the author believes isn't well supported, well, n8 is boring without newbies to troll.
Unlike his 'counter-part' in $tinkle who's very creative.
Wall Street jumps on Fed move
dow up 416 before the close.
and yes, i realize this is like a record cold day in winter doesn't unravel arguments for climate change.
just sayin...
dow up 416 before the close.
and yes, i realize this is like a record cold day in winter doesn't unravel arguments for climate change.
just sayin...
that's the biggest rise i've had in 5 years...
marketwise.
irate2:PS: Helicopter Ben still worries me tho..