warning : we're heading to a recession
- Thread starter LordOpie
- Start date
irate2:
His wifed swapped them for saltpeter.
Market responding well to this news:
That's good, but the recent run up of oil had nothing to do with how much we do or don't have. Speculation and runs based on weak dollar.
Take the speculation traders out of it, bid oil as a true commodity, no longs or shorts..in other words, if you bid on a barrel, you better be ready to take it and do something with it.
Again, tin foil hat time..what was Cheney's secret, still undocumentated and released, 2001 energy talks all about?
Take the speculation traders out of it, bid oil as a true commodity, no longs or shorts..in other words, if you bid on a barrel, you better be ready to take it and do something with it.
Again, tin foil hat time..what was Cheney's secret, still undocumentated and released, 2001 energy talks all about?
erm...and just what market would this happen? certainly not a free one. this smacks of price controls, and we've seen how that works in practice in other sectors.
Oil effects everything...
..uggggg.....
just
....uggg...
I dont see how this is going to come out well.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/12/cnfed112.xml
just
....uggg...
I dont see how this is going to come out well.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/12/cnfed112.xml
a semi trader.. but dammit man, where the f'ing bottom??!!!
taking the last couple day's gains over to gov securities and playing with bond funds until Monday... today the $=100 yen, oil is up again, Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund is in the sh!tter...
hmmmmm, I wonder how the rising mortgage rates (although down 1/4pt over the last 3 days) are going to affect the housing crises, and the overall economy?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/?postversion=2008031308
dunno where the bottom is N8, but I do think it's got a ways to go before it turns around. in sept '02 it was down in the 7000s, and that was post 9/11 and post the whole options/bookkeeping issues from june of that year. not saying that it *will* fall that low, but it's not unprecedented, and by all accounts the '01 recession was milder than ones we've had before. <shrug>
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/?postversion=2008031308
dunno where the bottom is N8, but I do think it's got a ways to go before it turns around. in sept '02 it was down in the 7000s, and that was post 9/11 and post the whole options/bookkeeping issues from june of that year. not saying that it *will* fall that low, but it's not unprecedented, and by all accounts the '01 recession was milder than ones we've had before. <shrug>
Originally was predicted to be 75bp, then that sort of trailed off to 50bp in light of the $200b cash infusion on Tues. Has cutting rates been at all effective so far this fall/winter? It seems the fed cutes rates, the dollar falls, inflation fears rise, stocks fall and long-term rates go up.
Saw this and thought i'd post it here for you amusement...
stagflation's a bitch.
``There's nothing fundamental in the market, people are reacting to the dollar,'' said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. ``We aren't only seeing the arrival of pension fund and insurance money. There's been a wave of sloppy money coming from small investors trying to take part in the commodity rally.''erm...and just what market would this happen? certainly not a free one. this smacks of price controls, and we've seen how that works in practice in other sectors.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, may increase its commodity investments 16-fold to $7.2 billion through 2010 as raw-materials prices rise to records. Calpers, which has about $240 billion in assets, agreed to the reallocation at a Feb. 19 board meeting, spokesman Clark McKinley said on Feb. 28. "
Commodities traded exactly like I said prior to 1983 when the market commodity rules changed.
Like the experts are saying, this is not a free, supply and demand oil market, we're funding your retirement because your 401k and retirement fund managers are betting on commodities. Weak dollar and all that.
bottom line is the Fed needs to suck it up, admit recession, quit dropping rates and in fact, raise the rates to limit the amount of dollars out there. we need to suck it up and ride it out. Personally, when the oil bubble bust, like tech did before it, I'm going to laugh at all the retirement funds holding out the tin cup begging the Fed to bail them out. As a country, we suck at economics.
as compared to whom?
F*ck, I don't know, I'm ranting for God's sake. Don't kill my rantbuzz!
Econistan.
Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 22% chance of a 100 basis point rate cut, with the rest of the odds on a 75 basis point cut.
There was no chance of a 100 basis point cut yesterday.
Is a 1% cut now possible?
There was no chance of a 100 basis point cut yesterday.
Is a 1% cut now possible?
what really bothers me is the Fed acted as if they were dumping $200B into the Market but that was a flat lie.
They lent that money to BSC and Chase to bail them out but they let the world believe otherwise and the Markets went up 400 points the biggest gain in 5 years on that news but it was a bogus lie....
They lent that money to BSC and Chase to bail them out but they let the world believe otherwise and the Markets went up 400 points the biggest gain in 5 years on that news but it was a bogus lie....
are the two related? I had thought that they were two separate incidents.
and I'm also not sure exactly where I heard it, but thought that the biggest 1-day movers in the market usually happened in bear markets... I think that tues was a bunch of people try to cover their shorts, and not indicative of a broad positive movement.
and I'm also not sure exactly where I heard it, but thought that the biggest 1-day movers in the market usually happened in bear markets... I think that tues was a bunch of people try to cover their shorts, and not indicative of a broad positive movement.
This whole tinkering around bull$hit is going to end badly. 
I was trying to come up with a "drop to flat" joke. But unfortunately it seems like there is a nice steep downhill transition.
bye or buy??
dammit... time to BUY!!!!
stuff is cheap... looking for an uptick Mon.. Tues at the latest..
A): abolish the fed and resign immediately lol
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6046520409389956642&hl=en
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6046520409389956642&hl=en
That's why I get pissed at american sheeple. Many think if the market is up, that's good. The market is only up because the dollar is falling. If you work in science/business, you should realize values are relative to units. If the market falls, sometimes that's good because you buy more stocks with your dollar!!!! People need to think and trade outside the dollar! This same sh1t happened during Reagan- should have been no suprise to older people.
Remember, the US does not own THE FED- the swiss and world super rich do!
Remember, the US does not own THE FED- the swiss and world super rich do!
I have an economics noob question:
Suppose things keep swirling around the hole in the toilet for a bit, and the baby boomers get nervous and begin to withdraw their retirement funds from these big firms for fear of losing what hasnt already been lost. Are we looking at a black tuesday scenario?
Also, what happens in 5-15 years when these people retire anyway, and begin to use this money to live on? Sure it will go back into businesses in the economy, but who will prop up these huge firms then?
Suppose things keep swirling around the hole in the toilet for a bit, and the baby boomers get nervous and begin to withdraw their retirement funds from these big firms for fear of losing what hasnt already been lost. Are we looking at a black tuesday scenario?
Also, what happens in 5-15 years when these people retire anyway, and begin to use this money to live on? Sure it will go back into businesses in the economy, but who will prop up these huge firms then?
You're assuming baby boomers own a large percent of stocks. 90% of stocks are owned by the top 15% (some claim 6-10%) of the world's super rich. The whole middle class investment power is a joke. Just try switching out of your 401K funds every other day- most don't allow it.
If people really want to change the economy, they would watch how they spend their money and not support big international banks (credit cards) and companies (walmart, nike, coke, Gap and on and on.....- of course it's just too damn convenient to use those companies and you save 10-50% in the short term SOMETIMES.)
a run on the bank is both unlikely to happen, and ineffective if it did. there's a lot more fingers in the pie than 25 million baby boomers with an average of $30k in their retirement nestegg (not to include home equity, which, too is paltry). besides, we young 'uns are hoping this schyte will scare them to death
ron paul.
you don't think he spent all that loot, do you?
Well then if the investments of the large majority of the public are, at large, fairly nominal in the grand scheme of things, why is consumer spending so influential? What if people inevested the way they frivolously spent? Would it still be such a miniscule amount?
my take on it is when you have assloads of money, you must put it somewhere, and neither speculative markets nor the mattress make much sense. and for the same reasons they don't make sense, you want it somewhere that's going to at least eek out an edge on inflation.
enter consumer goods, and those companies who offer them.
now you're talking culture change, which is a big "what if?". apart from people realizing that SS is effectively insolvent, i don't know what it would take to make that huge shift - maybe if NAS came out with a peer-reviewed article stating our avg life expectancy is 190 yrs?
Is the idea I should take from this, that there is, by and large, nothing that the everyday American can do to contribute positively to the economy except spend as much as possible? Maybe, be a little more productive at work. Actually investing money is either ineffectual or a negative (besides negating the need for public assistance in old age) in broader terms?
1/3rd of spending by gov't
1/3rd spending by consumers
1/3rd spending by??? not positive- companies and other countries??
It's hard to save with a family, especially when your dollar buys less as costs increase. In my cynical view, it's all very easy to engineer by the politicians and companies in bed together.
example:
1. cause a conflict (beirut, libya, iraq), increases price of lumber, oil (oil increases price of transportation for all goods)
2. combine with 1 or by itself, borrow money so more of your taxes goes to paying interest and deflating your monetary unit. Also increasing the number of dollars lowers it's value because you've increased supply.
3. Create laws that prevent transparency of corporate profits, payouts and taxes.
4. Take an advanced international economic class because I'm just an old biologist.
Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance-- oh, then there wouldn't be as many sheeple spending money on what the TV tells them is good for them (even if it's bad for them and made by workers that will take away their jobs)