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warning : we're heading to a recession

jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,529
15,753
Portland, OR
dante said:
as long as you can a) pay the mortgage and b) plan to stay for awhile, it's almost always a good idea. the problem comes from people who suddenly can't pay their mortgage, try to pull value out of it through HELOCs, or who have to sell it and owe more than the house is worth.
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Why the hell would I buy a house I could actually afford? That won't help the economy one bit!

I wanted a n8mansion.
 
N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus




Thursday, April 3:

* Earnings: Acuity Brands (AYI), Constellation Brands (STZ), Lawson Software (LWSN)
* Economic Data: ISM Services Index for March and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ending March 29)
* Events: None
* Conferences: Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference; Credit Suisse Wireless Forum, and; Credit Suisse Real Estate Private Fund Group Conference
* Fed Speakers: San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on U.S. economy at Stanford University (8:00 PM ET)... Fed Governor Mishkin speaks about central bank commitment at Princeton Club in NY (8:15 PM ET)

Friday, April 4:

* Earnings: Family Dollar(FDO), Mosaic (MOS)
* Economic Data: March Employment Report
* Events: None
* Conferences: Credit Suisse Real Estate Private Fund Group Conference
* Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Kroszner discusses global economic and financial challenges in FL (2:45 PM ET)

--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
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N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Are we in a recession..??



http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080406/us_nm/greenspan_recession_dc_2&printer=1;_ylt=ArK4tS22RbeenEXJeUpa7LEXIr0F



More than 50 percent chance of U.S. recession: Greenspan
By Sonya DowsettSun Apr 6, 6:15 AM ET

There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told El Pais newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

However, the U.S. has not yet entered recessionary state marked by sharp falls in orders, strong rises in unemployment and intensive weakening of the economy, he said.

"We would have to see signs of this intensification: there are some, but not many yet," he said. "Therefore ... I would not describe the situation we are in as a recession, although the chances that we'll have one are more than 50 percent."

A sharp downturn in the U.S. housing market has led to a full-blown credit crisis that has reverberated throughout the U.S. financial system.
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Greenspan, the U.S. Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006, endorsed the Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the interview.
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N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
X3pilot said:
Wow, makes me feel so much better.

I guess if OPEC or the royal Saudi family were in a recession, Bush/Cheney would be falling over themselves to help...

God, I'm in need of some Pamprin today....feeling bitchy
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i've managed to be +8% for year so far... looking for 20%.
 
dante

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
"L" shaped recession?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/case-for-l-shaped-recession.html

A lot of what I've been reading the last several months have said that instead of a credit crisis (can't get a loan) we're really in a DEBT crisis (can't get a loan b/c we're leveraged to the hilt and shouldn't be given any more credit anyway). It does come back to the fact that at the end of the day, Americans are deeper in debt than we've ever been, both at a personal level and as a country... Pretty scary stuff.
 
LordOpie

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,022
3
Denver
dante said:
It does come back to the fact that at the end of the day, Americans are deeper in debt than we've ever been, both at a personal level and as a country... Pretty scary stuff.
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And I think this is the first time in US history where we're actually upside-down.
 
N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Lehman makes move to turn unsold debt to cash: report
Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:27am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc repackaged unsold debt and used the Federal Reserve's new borrowing facility to convert loans that investors mostly rejected into cash to finance its business, the Wall Street Journal reported.

According to the Journal, Lehman transferred $2.8 billion in loans that included some risky leveraged buyout debt into a new investment entity called Freedom.

Freedom then issued debt securities backed by the loans, and $2.26 billion of the securities got investment-grade credit rankings from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, according to the report.

The bank used some of those securities as collateral for a low-interest, short-term cash loan from the Federal Reserve, the Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The move was meant as a test to see what the Federal Reserve would accept, and the size of the loan was not material, the Journal added, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Lehman representatives and the Federal Reserve could not be reached immediately for comment.
 
dante

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
because C *only* wrote down $16b in the latest round of writedowns? also, don't forget, we're looking at HUGE normal (including food and energy) inflation numbers right now (so far this year it's over 4%). if you buy treasuries you're LOSING ~2%/year, the bond market doesn't know what's going on with the CDOs and mortgages, you can't put money into real estate without wondering how far that still has to fall, commodities are probably overpriced, and if you put the money under your mattress you're losing even MORE to inflation. that leaves... stocks. also don't forget that historically, the single biggest day moves happen in a bear market.

on the upside, there seems to be support at the 50day moving average, which is promising, and buying into a weekend always shows confidence. who knows? one of my only rules to live by is "the market is always smarter than you are." maybe it knows something I don't.
 
N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
dante said:
because C *only* wrote down $16b in the latest round of writedowns? also, don't forget, we're looking at HUGE normal (including food and energy) inflation numbers right now (so far this year it's over 4%). if you buy treasuries you're LOSING ~2%/year, the bond market doesn't know what's going on with the CDOs and mortgages, you can't put money into real estate without wondering how far that still has to fall, commodities are probably overpriced, and if you put the money under your mattress you're losing even MORE to inflation. that leaves... stocks. also don't forget that historically, the single biggest day moves happen in a bear market.

on the upside, there seems to be support at the 50day moving average, which is promising, and buying into a weekend always shows confidence. who knows? one of my only rules to live by is "the market is always smarter than you are." maybe it knows something I don't.
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thanks for the education on this.

:)
 
N8 v2.0

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
...keep an eye on the oil

i think there's only a diminishing return left there... looks like there is now a general commodities' bubble.

where will the money look to go next? Real Estate, Stocks, or Bonds?
 
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