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We all gon die. The pandemic thread.

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Army of the dead seem to be growing at an average daily rate of 32% for the past dozen or so days.

View attachment 142639

You've probably already seen this but they update the text once a day and the plots update a few times throughout the day. What you've got jives with their ongoing death rate comparisons. You already know this but long term of course we're the only country on the fucking planet with an overall rising percentage.

 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
You've probably already seen this but they update the text once a day and the plots update a few times throughout the day. What you've got jives with their ongoing death rate comparisons. You already know this but long term of course we're the only country on the fucking planet with an overall rising percentage.

Yeah, I look at probably 5 different tracking sites. I really do my own numbers because I am a nerd and it lets me accept what is happening from an analytical viewpoint instead of an emotional one.

I do the same thing at work. When everyone is running around panicking and screaming about how fucked we are, I look at the data, pop my head up and calmly say, we are fucked by exactly a 16" donkey dick at 7.6 Hz.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,978
9,638
AK
We had our first death in the state today...so there's that.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,598
7,246
Colorado

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,639
12,701
In a van.... down by the river
Who could have guessed this was going to happen?



The persecution complex these folks have is pretty amazing.


This part: "When Falwell met with backlash over his decision to keep the school open, he cast the criticism as political, saying on Wednesday: “We’re conservative, we’re Christian, and therefore we’re being attacked.” "

Mr. Falwell - you're misinterpreting it... you're not being "attacked" due to either of those things. You're being attacked because you are a complete and utter moron that is a menace to society. There's a difference.

Wait. Maybe there isn't. :homer:
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
I am very curious about the experiment in Sweden. Gonna get interesting there, soon.
Did you see what the govt statement was? Basically "we trust that our citizens are smart enough to do this right"


Can you even IMAGINE being able to seriously let those words even seep from your face? The idiots in this country still think this is just a vacation.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
Did you see what the govt statement was? Basically "we trust that our citizens are smart enough to do this right"


Can you even IMAGINE being able to seriously let those words even seep from your face? The idiots in this country still think this is just a vacation.

We could just shoot at the virus?
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
Some weird things are happening in the reported data. First of all there is a cyclical 3 day pattern where fewer people die than one would expect from the trends. Could be some localities only report every few days, but I haven't been able to see where that is happening. Secondly both the new cases and deaths have dropped below the exponential growth curve at about the same time. You would expect to see about a two week lag between cases and deaths. It is almost like a bunch of people were dying from pneumonia instead. Hopefully this is real and things are getting better, but it doesn't make too much sense to me. Time will tell.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Some weird things are happening in the reported data. First of all there is a cyclical 3 day pattern where fewer people die than one would expect from the trends. Could be some localities only report every few days, but I haven't been able to see where that is happening. Secondly both the new cases and deaths have dropped below the exponential growth curve at about the same time. You would expect to see about a two week lag between cases and deaths. It is almost like a bunch of people were dying from pneumonia instead. Hopefully this is real and things are getting better, but it doesn't make too much sense to me. Time will tell.
The county I live in only reports every other day (mon, wed, fri). I doubt that's the only one.

I think the drop in the log curve is also the beginning of a look into the world starting to shut the fuck down. What we had been seeing was the laissez faire approach up until warshington, californy, and new yalk said stay home. The timing is right. That's good. It shows that it doesn't eliminate the problem but that it can matter. I had been thinking of positive tests as looking 2-3 weeks into the past with deaths just a look at 3-4 weeks into the past. Given how long it's taking to get test results, I think they're both just a window in a month previous.


I've pretty much resigned myself to just noticing the john hopkins site at 9pm PST and calling that the total for the day. @Toshi is stressing over a big rise one day and then a fall off the next when I'm showing roughly equal growth for the two days he's talking about. I have to keep reminding myself that 2-3 days isn't a trend, it's reporting noise. As always: "we'll know more at the end of the week."

edit: just talked to a friend who works at a large PRIVATE hospital. He said they're not under any obligation to report cases to the county......so they're not.

fuck this country
 
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Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
The county I live in only reports every other day (mon, wed, fri). I doubt that's the only one.

I think the drop in the log curve is also the beginning of a look into the world starting to shut the fuck down. What we had been seeing was the laissez faire approach up until warshington, californy, and new yalk said stay home. The timing is right. That's good. It shows that it doesn't eliminate the problem but that it can matter. I had been thinking of positive tests as looking 2-3 weeks into the past with deaths just a look at 3-4 weeks into the past. Given how long it's taking to get test results, I think they're both just a window in a month previous.


I've pretty much resigned myself to just noticing the john hopkins site at 9pm PST and calling that the total for the day. @Toshi is stressing over a big rise one day and then a fall off the next when I'm showing roughly equal growth for the two days he's talking about. I have to keep reminding myself that 2-3 days isn't a trend, it's reporting noise. As always: "we'll know more at the end of the week."

Oh I get that, we need a good week for a trend. The drop in cases for the log curve is long overdue.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,978
9,638
AK
Some weird things are happening in the reported data. First of all there is a cyclical 3 day pattern where fewer people die than one would expect from the trends. Could be some localities only report every few days, but I haven't been able to see where that is happening. Secondly both the new cases and deaths have dropped below the exponential growth curve at about the same time. You would expect to see about a two week lag between cases and deaths. It is almost like a bunch of people were dying from pneumonia instead. Hopefully this is real and things are getting better, but it doesn't make too much sense to me. Time will tell.
I saw the hinting of exactly this today...but much more data is needed to confirm this over more than a day...
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,598
7,246
Colorado
Faith in china's data questionable obviously but we just surpassed them in reported deaths.

The more I talk to people in hospitals the less I trust our tallies too.
"Pneumonia" but not tested...
"Sepsis as a complication of ARDS" but not tested...
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,598
7,246
Colorado
^the shitty part is that what IS reported is bad enough.

We just doubled in a day for the first time since things were in the single and double digits.

The 9pm PST john hopkins check in

View attachment 142874
Sister talked with my Dad today. Still thinks this will all blow over by mid-april. Ended call to go to running club. Refuses to listen to either of us.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
I'm in the same boat. My fox contaminated pater familius just keeps asking what flu deaths were this year.

It took me telling him I was sick last week to get him to shut the fuck up and listen.

Mail your dad some of what you coughed up. If not mail it to me so I can send it to mine.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
The county I live in only reports every other day (mon, wed, fri). I doubt that's the only one.

I think the drop in the log curve is also the beginning of a look into the world starting to shut the fuck down. What we had been seeing was the laissez faire approach up until warshington, californy, and new yalk said stay home. The timing is right. That's good. It shows that it doesn't eliminate the problem but that it can matter. I had been thinking of positive tests as looking 2-3 weeks into the past with deaths just a look at 3-4 weeks into the past. Given how long it's taking to get test results, I think they're both just a window in a month previous.


I've pretty much resigned myself to just noticing the john hopkins site at 9pm PST and calling that the total for the day. @Toshi is stressing over a big rise one day and then a fall off the next when I'm showing roughly equal growth for the two days he's talking about. I have to keep reminding myself that 2-3 days isn't a trend, it's reporting noise. As always: "we'll know more at the end of the week."

edit: just talked to a friend who works at a large PRIVATE hospital. He said they're not under any obligation to report cases to the county......so they're not.

fuck this country
Things were starting to look good in Washington. But who knows, the information is just 4 days old.


 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,401
20,191
Sleazattle
I am guessing the infrastructure they are using is in Olympia, so they are probably just counting oyster shells to keep track.