Quantcast

We all gon die. The pandemic thread.

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,373
7,769
Can we smuggle a new chapter into the Old Testament that tells them that allopathic medicine is the work of the devil, and that they should never leave their compounds?
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
I'm conflicted about making fun of a guy who got his head run over and just doesn't give a fuck. Because I kind of respect that.

He says so much stupid shit you shouldn't have to make fun of his crooked dead nerve skull.

Not saying you were. But I still definitely do so just thinking outloud here.
 
Last edited:

AngryMetalsmith

Business is good, thanks for asking
Jun 4, 2006
21,237
10,151
I have no idea where I am
I'm conflicted about making fun of a guy who got his head run over and just doesn't give a fuck. Because I kind of respect that.

He says so much stupid shit you shouldn't have to make fun of his crooked dead nerve skull.

Not saying you were. But I still definitely do so just thinking outloud here.
Okay then, how'bout this guy :

"I would rather die than be caged"
- LaVoy Finicum



Or is making fun of the dead Verboten ?
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,363
16,843
Riding the baggage carousel.
Last edited:

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
19,016
9,674
AK
There are good signs that we have plateaued in Washington, both deaths and new cases. Must be all that bad leadership from Gov. Inslee Trump talks about.
The latest that I was seeing from JHU (last few days) that the increase is constant, in other words no longer logarithmic or exponential, in fact that graph (log) appears to be flattening out. That's something...it's not necessarily good, it means deaths increasing each day, but it *should* be a precursor to the actual curve flattening out.
 

Fool

The Thing cannot be described
Sep 10, 2001
2,782
1,495
Brooklyn
BDB is Trumpy in the way he bends facts to fit his narrative (I realize no one come close to trumping Trump at this ). This has been going on his entire mayoral reign.

I wish they'd close some fuckin' streets to cars so the parks wouldn't get so packed. Also because of dipshittery like this: https://jalopnik.com/guy-takes-pandemic-opportunity-to-rip-through-nyc-stree-1842727639
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,483
20,287
Sleazattle
The latest that I was seeing from JHU (last few days) that the increase is constant, in other words no longer logarithmic or exponential, in fact that graph (log) appears to be flattening out. That's something...it's not necessarily good, it means deaths increasing each day, but it *should* be a precursor to the actual curve flattening out.
Since this is a big positive feedback loop, when the number of new cases per day starts to drop, you have hit an inflection point where things should start getting better faster, Recovered cases should also be growing exponentially, but I suspect that is going to be very unreliable data. If you care not hospitalized who is going to see a doctor when they feel better?
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
19,016
9,674
AK
Since this is a big positive feedback loop, when the number of new cases per day starts to drop, you have hit an inflection point where things should start getting better faster, Recovered cases should also be growing exponentially, but I suspect that is going to be very unreliable data. If you care not hospitalized who is going to see a doctor when they feel better?
Not looking at cases, way too many variables to mean anything. The only thing meaningful IMO is deaths.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,483
20,287
Sleazattle
Not looking at cases, way too many variables to mean anything. The only thing meaningful IMO is deaths.
For an absolute count I agree the data is worthless, but it can shed light on trends. You can could assume this is just the severe case count. Anyway, the number of people hospitalized has also peaked locally and it appears deaths also have, but it is hard to say just yet as the numbers are noisy.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
^yeah, about that

The CDC is now taking the approach that potentially infected people can return to work if they take precautions. This is how we start rising again in deaths. And this is why you put mike fucking pence and esteemed harvard legacy admission jared kushner in charge of things that involve real life.

We are literally being to told to jump into a fire. Stay home if you can y'all.
 

slyfink

Turbo Monkey
Sep 16, 2008
9,347
5,098
Ottawa, Canada
Thanks IMF...
"The virus tore through luxurious gated communities and poor, hillside neighborhoods. Within days, the explosion of mortality overwhelmed the authorities, and hundreds of bodies began to accumulate in hospitals, morgues and homes.
...
An ill-timed austerity package pushed by Mr. Moreno, the president, to assuage international creditors led to the firing of up to 3,500 public health workers last year."

Ecuador Gives Glimpse Into Coronavirus' Impact on Latin America https://nyti.ms/2y32dFO
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
We'll see how it goes in europe as several countries are going that route too.

As more data becomes available and those most at risk are ID'd we need to allow those at lower risk to resume 'normal' life.
 

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,224
2,537
The old world
Preliminary results of an immunity study from the the first and most intensely affected village in Germany. Tranlated with deepl from: https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf


Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 Case Cluster Study (Gangelt municipality)
Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck(Institute of Virology)
Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Pharmacology, Speaker of the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2)
Prof. Dr. Martin Exner(Institute of Hygiene and Public Health)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute of Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology)
University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, 9 April 2020


Background:The municipality of Gangelt is one of the places in Germany most affected by COVID19. It is assumed that the infection was caused by a carnival session on February 15th, 2020, as several people tested positive for SARSCoV2 after this session.

The carnival session and the outbreak pattern after the session are currently being investigated in more detail. A representative sample was taken from the municipality of Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) in the Heinsberg district. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol in which 100 to 300 households are randomly tested, depending on the expected prevalence. This sample was adjusted to its representativeness with Prof. Manfred Güllner (Forsa)
The aim of the study is to determine the status of the SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected persons) in the community of Gangelt. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2 immunity should be determined. Procedure:A serial letter was sent to about 600 households. In total, about 1000 inhabitants from about 400 households participated in the study. Questionnaires were collected, throat swabs taken and blood tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA). This first evaluation includes the interim results and conclusions of about 500 people. preliminary result:An existing immunity of about 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >,99 %) was determined. About 2% of the persons had a current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by the PCR method. The infection rate (current or past infection) was ca. 15%. The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37% with the preliminary data from this study. The mortality rate currently calculated by Johns-Hopkins University in Germany is 1.98%, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15%.

Preliminary conclusion: The 5-fold higher lethality calculated by Johns-Hopkins University compared to this study in Gangelt is explained by the different reference size of the infected persons. In Gangelt, this study covers all infected persons in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and mild courses. In Gangelt, the proportion of the population that has already developed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is about 15%. This means that 15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the process has already begun until herd immunity is achieved. This 15% of the population reduces the speed (net reproduction rate in epidemiological models) of further spread of SARS-CoV-2 accordingly. By adhering to strict hygiene measures, it is to be expected that the virus concentration can be reduced to such an extent that the severity of the disease is reduced and at the same time immunity is developed. These favourable conditions are not given in the case of an exceptional outbreak event (superspreading event, e.g. carnival session, après-ski bar Ischgl).

We therefore expressly recommend implementing the proposed four-phase strategy of the German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH).

Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containing and slowing down the pandemic and avoiding overburdening critical care structures, especially the health care system
Phase 2: Beginning to reduce quarantine while ensuring hygienic conditions and behaviour.
Phase 3: Revocation of quarantine while maintaining hygienic conditions
Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic (status quo ante).
 

FlipSide

Turbo Monkey
Sep 24, 2001
1,388
826
We therefore expressly recommend implementing the proposed four-phase strategy of the German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH).

Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containing and slowing down the pandemic and avoiding overburdening critical care structures, especially the health care system
Phase 2: Beginning to reduce quarantine while ensuring hygienic conditions and behaviour.
Phase 3: Revocation of quarantine while maintaining hygienic conditions
Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic (status quo ante).
Hopefully, Phase 4 will never reach “as before” status. I’d like the western countries to adopt a more japanese-style sanitary precautions.

- No worthless handshaking.
- More automatic doors in public spaces.
- More regular cleaning of surfaces in public spaces (handles in busses are cleaned at most once every week here).
- Sick people expected to wearing face masks in public to avoid spreading of diseases.

I have been saying this for several years, I think its the right time to reconsider some things we find normal culturally, but makes no sense. I have absolutely no problem shaking the hand of my family members, friends, business partners, etc., but talking to a stranger for 22 seconds in a trade-show booth is not worthy of physical contact and spreading germs, fecal matter and filthy warts. I have a co-worker who constantly shake hands at work for no reason. GTFO weirdo.

Funerals where the family of the deceased has to kiss 200 people (most of them they haven’t seen in 15 years) in a day is extremely stupid as well and I hope that stops.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,363
16,843
Riding the baggage carousel.
Thanks IMF...
"The virus tore through luxurious gated communities and poor, hillside neighborhoods. Within days, the explosion of mortality overwhelmed the authorities, and hundreds of bodies began to accumulate in hospitals, morgues and homes.
...
An ill-timed austerity package pushed by Mr. Moreno, the president, to assuage international creditors led to the firing of up to 3,500 public health workers last year."

Ecuador Gives Glimpse Into Coronavirus' Impact on Latin America https://nyti.ms/2y32dFO
Maintenance de routine.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,483
20,287
Sleazattle
For the most part, the people I have seen wearing masks tend to touch their masks and faces constantly. This is pretty counter productive. As someone who has worked in sterile clean rooms this can be a very difficult thing to avoid and takes discipline and training for that matter. Two things that don't fly in this country.
 

wiscodh

Monkey
Jun 21, 2007
833
121
303
For the most part, the people I have seen wearing masks tend to touch their masks and faces constantly. This is pretty counter productive. As someone who has worked in sterile clean rooms this can be a very difficult thing to avoid and takes discipline and training for that matter. Two things that don't fly in this country.
hey but it makes everyone feel safe, so we can force everyone to go back to work, or the bored people can go back to doing stuff!!!!!