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WWIII thread

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,669
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Whataboutism much? It is not up to Ukraine to decide on behalf of the russian energy customers whether they want to continue doing business with Putin. Besides, if they blow it up, Germany just reverts to Nord Stream 2 - wasn't that the goal of that endeavor anyway, a happy uninterrupted RU-DE partnership, the rest of Europe be damned? Where did you get the €2b figure btw.? Is this inaccurate? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/german-chancellor-stalling-heavy-weaponry-ukraine-coalition-olaf-scholz-russia-offensive

Germany has been stalling efforts to punish russia for their unprovoked aggression towards Ukraine. They kept delaying sanctions until their position was unattainable. They just decided to shut down the remaining nuclear power even if that increases their dependency on fossil fuels and therefore russian gas. Steinmeyer *is* a Putin-Versteher and a major supporter of Nord stream 2 and pro-russian policies. Why send that clown, why can't Scholz show up instead? There is very little that Germany has done in the last two moths that has impressed me. I don't think it is just my observation based on the general sentiment expressed towards German half-assed efforts in the media.

I find your statement about "biting the hand that feeds you" pretty tasteless. :(
You think so? What I find pretty tasteless is the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and a bunch of other Ukrainian politicians. If people try to help you within their political constraints, constantly verbally and personally attacking them is probably not the best way to convince them to help you. If I would be Steinmeier, I would stop saying anything about Ukraine publically anymore. I hate those commentors that say "oh, they are in stress situation, so you have to excuse them for their unconventional behaviour". Let us call it what it is: bullying, which would be unacceptable in a school yard and is not worthy of an ambassador that has a legit cause. He literally said in an interview that he demands that Scholz shows up in Kyiv and he better has the weapons we asked for in tow. WTF dude?
This is also where my comment "bite the hand that feeds" comes from. Do you think Scholz can travel to Kyiv now without making Steinmeier look bad? So if that was the Ukrainian goal, they are farther away from it now.

Germany made a ground-breaking shift in foreign politics to deliver weapons to an actual warzone, something they never did before. Just for helping Ukraine. And now the help is up to 2 billion:

And let me tell you, this is a politically risky move as in Germany many do not feel this change is a good one. German politicians made the decisions that the public wants, and the Germans are pretty Russia-friendly. Even more so when the US was not seen as a reliable partner anymore when Trump was elected.
The move away from nuclear power is a decision that other countries have to respect, because a majority of the German people were for it. That is how democracy work, remember? I find it funny that the German government is criticized for their weighted decision making, especially by some Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary). If Germany would be acting how they think Germany should, these two would have lost all their EU subsidies long ago because of their blatant violation of democratic principles.

BTW: Nordstream 2 is dead. Check your facts.
 

DaveW

Space Monkey
Jul 2, 2001
11,510
3,054
The bunker at parliament

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,228
2,541
The old world
You think so? What I find pretty tasteless is the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and a bunch of other Ukrainian politicians. If people try to help you within their political constraints, constantly verbally and personally attacking them is probably not the best way to convince them to help you. If I would be Steinmeier, I would stop saying anything about Ukraine publically anymore. I hate those commentors that say "oh, they are in stress situation, so you have to excuse them for their unconventional behaviour". Let us call it what it is: bullying, which would be unacceptable in a school yard and is not worthy of an ambassador that has a legit cause. He literally said in an interview that he demands that Scholz shows up in Kyiv and he better has the weapons we asked for in tow. WTF dude?
This is also where my comment "bite the hand that feeds" comes from. Do you think Scholz can travel to Kyiv now without making Steinmeier look bad? So if that was the Ukrainian goal, they are farther away from it now.

Germany made a ground-breaking shift in foreign politics to deliver weapons to an actual warzone, something they never did before. Just for helping Ukraine. And now the help is up to 2 billion:

And let me tell you, this is a politically risky move as in Germany many do not feel this change is a good one. German politicians made the decisions that the public wants, and the Germans are pretty Russia-friendly. Even more so when the US was not seen as a reliable partner anymore when Trump was elected.
The move away from nuclear power is a decision that other countries have to respect, because a majority of the German people were for it. That is how democracy work, remember? I find it funny that the German government is criticized for their weighted decision making, especially by some Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary). If Germany would be acting how they think Germany should, these two would have lost all their EU subsidies long ago because of their blatant violation of democratic principles.

BTW: Nordstream 2 is dead. Check your facts.
No idea why I'm reminded of this tweet right now:
FireShot Capture 262 - (1) Marcel Dirsus (@marceldirsus) _ Twitter - twitter.com.png


Gee, are those ungrateful Ukrainians not being friendly enough? That must hurt. What else are the likes of Melnyk supposed to do while Scholz sits on his ass? Ambassador Melnyk needs to cross the lines of polite discourse occasionally while trying to shame the country and particularly the Social Democrats into action. But it's not like it's working even in the slightest when you look at the discourse at the highest level of that party and the types of arrogant and condescending responses Melnyk gets while Putin is literally trying to eradicate his country. It's perfectly possible to engange him sensibly, als Marie Strack Zimmermann, who would be defense secretary in any world other than this bizarro version, has just done about which weapons systems make sense and can be made available.

Steinmeier is without any power anyways, but more than any other active German politician, he is responsible the country's utterly failed Russia policy. It was developed when he was leading the foreign ministry and as he previously was Schröder's fixer during his chancellorship, he continued the policies Schröder enacted with his bosom buddy Putin. Good on the Ukrainians for denying him a photo op to polish up his image for nothing in return.
Political alignment via establishing economic dependencies is perfectly sensible and understandable, but it was apparent in 2008 and 2014 at the latest that this had failed entirely, but Germany still ignored any concerns of its eastern neighbours and pushed ahead with Nord Stream 2 with Schröder getting rich of Gazprom and Rosneft. And please don't try to frame Germany's stance towards Russia as some kind of reaction to Trump's election. This has been a long term project decades in the making. The widespread anti americanism in large parts of the left is however certainly helpful in that regard.

Germany's turn around on defense is very welcome. But let's not kid ourselves: That is the country finally catching up and doing the bare minimum and it doesn't help Ukraine in the slightest. I can't believe people are patting themselves on the back over this and actually believe Germany is doing enough to help Ukraine. Germany's post war pacifism is completely understandable, but it is increasingly being used as an excuse for an evasion of responsibility. We are world champions of saying "never again", but apparently that came with an asterisk of "*unless it might inconvenience us with a recession while a country where our grandfathers murdered millions is being wiped off the map".
I mean the Greens are pretty damn left wing and grew out of the peace movement, but even they are getting increasingly and publicly frustrated with Scholz' inaction. And are you seriously putting blame on Ukraine for the current situation because they gave away their nukes? There were four parties to that agreement, and three of them are not following through on their guarantess. Here's a hint: Ukraine isn't one of them.

We're simply not doing nearly enough and we have ignored all concerns from our eastern neighbours for decades. This is an existential threat to all of Europe's security in the medium term, and sitting this one out just won't work. Sure we have already taken in half a million refugees and gave a bit of aid, but when the likes of Estonia outspend you massively, that should tell you somehting. That doesn't suddenly mean Poland's and Hungary's governments are anything other than autocratic shitbags and there is plenty of hipocrisy to be found in the east, but conflating this war with the anti EU populism while being the largest recipients of subsidies is completely off.
Oh, and our energy policy is still incredibly dumb and shortsighted. Sure it was enacted by democratically elected governments, but it's news to me that wrong decisions are irreversible and need to be adhered to irrespective of how harmful they are. The self satisfaction, stubborness and inaction in this country are getting increasingly hard to swallow.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,669
3,123
No idea why I'm reminded of this tweet right now:
View attachment 175058

Gee, are those ungrateful Ukrainians not being friendly enough? That must hurt. What else are the likes of Melnyk supposed to do while Scholz sits on his ass? Ambassador Melnyk needs to cross the lines of polite discourse occasionally while trying to shame the country and particularly the Social Democrats into action.
And that is exactly what rubs me and many others the wrong way. For decades other countries have guilt-tripped German politicians into making decisions that are good for them but not necessarily in the best interest of Germany. Before you answer that this is selfish, please don't kid yourself. Every country looks out for themselves first, that is what the government has the mandate for from its population.

Steinmeier is without any power anyways,
This is the real reason why they don't want him. They just need someone that can give them what they want.

Political alignment via establishing economic dependencies is perfectly sensible and understandable, but it was apparent in 2008 and 2014 at the latest that this had failed entirely, but Germany still ignored any concerns of its eastern neighbours and pushed ahead with Nord Stream 2 with Schröder getting rich of Gazprom and Rosneft. And please don't try to frame Germany's stance towards Russia as some kind of reaction to Trump's election. This has been a long term project decades in the making. The widespread anti americanism in large parts of the left is however certainly helpful in that regard.
I still think that, at the time, it was the right strategy. While the Trump administration was not the cause of the anti americanism, it was for sure not helpful.
Just a question for you: if the policy towards Russia was so bad, why is the whole World sucking up to China? Same-same in my book. Just wait when they invade Taiwan. But hey, as long as my carbon bike/laptop/everything else is cheap, it is not a problem, right?

Germany's turn around on defense is very welcome. But let's not kid ourselves: That is the country finally catching up and doing the bare minimum and it doesn't help Ukraine in the slightest.
Good, then they should stop wasting the money. If 100 billion for defense and 2+ billion in aid do not make a difference, then we should spend that money where it does. Climate change anyone?

I can't believe people are patting themselves on the back over this and actually believe Germany is doing enough to help Ukraine. Germany's post war pacifism is completely understandable, but it is increasingly being used as an excuse for an evasion of responsibility. We are world champions of saying "never again", but apparently that came with an asterisk of "*unless it might inconvenience us with a recession while a country where our grandfathers murdered millions is being wiped off the map".
I mean the Greens are pretty damn left wing and grew out of the peace movement, but even they are getting increasingly and publicly frustrated with Scholz' inaction. And are you seriously putting blame on Ukraine for the current situation because they gave away their nukes? There were four parties to that agreement, and three of them are not following through on their guarantess. Here's a hint: Ukraine isn't one of them.
What I am saying is, that if you so prominently point the finger at others' mistakes you better did not make any mistakes of your own.
The countries that guranteed the independence of Ukraine were the US, UK, France, China and Germany. Who of them sprung to action when Crimea was invaded? Besides nukes, they also gave up other weapon systems that could have been of an advantage now: https://www.armscontrol.org/node/2963

If you consder the alternative scenario, Germany would meet its demands and had a super strong military, don't you think the countries that urge Germany to do more right now would then feel threatened?

We're simply not doing nearly enough and we have ignored all concerns from our eastern neighbours for decades. This is an existential threat to all of Europe's security in the medium term, and sitting this one out just won't work.
I agree that this cannot be sat out. However, don't you think NATO moving more and more towards being a party in the war weakens Europe's security short term?

Oh, and our energy policy is still incredibly dumb and shortsighted. Sure it was enacted by democratically elected governments, but it's news to me that wrong decisions are irreversible and need to be adhered to irrespective of how harmful they are. The self satisfaction, stubborness and inaction in this country are getting increasingly hard to swallow.
See Brexit, once decided it cannot be reverted. ;)
I actually like the calm decision making process and weighing of all factors. It prevents us from slipping into WW3. Or are you ready to fight?
 

StiHacka

Compensating for something
Jan 4, 2013
21,560
12,508
In hell. Welcome!
(for Germany) It's all about the money, boys! And about getting access the petro-roubles first, because what about China?

See pages 18-19
 

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,228
2,541
The old world
Fuck him.
The actual content of the article seems hardly controversial, and Habeck is one of the good guys in this government, even if he somehow missed Polish and Czech weapons deliveries.

Yeah, we kindly asked Herr Heydrich not to butcher our fellow Jewish citizens and intelligentsia when he was busy running the genocide of Prague in 1942. Somehow those negotiations didn't work that great - until he was terminated in a military conflict.

I mean, what in-the-unholy-fuck??
Stegner is everything that's wrong with the Social Democrats regarding Russia and then some. Worst of the worst, but hardly alone with his ludicrous and deeply ideologically ingrained opinions. Do not visit his twitter feed if you are easily enraged.
 

StiHacka

Compensating for something
Jan 4, 2013
21,560
12,508
In hell. Welcome!
Stegner is everything that's wrong with the Social Democrats regarding Russia and then some. Worst of the worst, but hardly alone with his ludicrous and deeply ideologically ingrained opinions. Do not visit his twitter feed if you are easily enraged.
I am more disappointed than enraged. This opinion was written 8 years ago, and things haven't gotten better. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/opinion/why-germans-love-russia.html
I wonder how many of the pro-russian german politicians are on the payroll of the FSB, and how many are just useful idiots.

In other news, what animals do shit like this?
 

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,228
2,541
The old world
And that is exactly what rubs me and many others the wrong way. For decades other countries have guilt-tripped German politicians into making decisions that are good for them but not necessarily in the best interest of Germany. Before you answer that this is selfish, please don't kid yourself. Every country looks out for themselves first, that is what the government has the mandate for from its population.
That's of course true and self interest is fine, but German defense and Russia policy have become pet peeves of mine over the last decade and the country has been neglecting one while acting against the interests of pretty much all of its partners in the other, which is also not good for the continued existence of its alliances.

This is the real reason why they don't want him. They just need someone that can give them what they want.
As they should, why would they participate in Steinmeier's PR mission. Sent someone who can actually offer... something and send a positive signal. Boris Johnson is a spineless clown and Britain is an embarassment regarding refugees, but at least he knows how to play situations like these.

I still think that, at the time, it was the right strategy. While the Trump administration was not the cause of the anti americanism, it was for sure not helpful.
Just a question for you: if the policy towards Russia was so bad, why is the whole World sucking up to China? Same-same in my book. Just wait when they invade Taiwan. But hey, as long as my carbon bike/laptop/everything else is cheap, it is not a problem, right?
I pretty much said the same thing, after the wall came down and Russia liberalized, this appeared to be a very sensible and mutually beneficial approach. But it had already been invalidated by reality when Trump came into office and thankfully he didn't manage to blow up the western alliance. I just don't think he moved the needle regarding Germany's Russia policy, but one of the very few things he got right was Germany's over reliance on Russian energy. Which was of course met with ridicule and the assertion that the evil capitalist Americans are just looking for a reason to sell us their gas.
China is equally problematic but not as threatening to European territorial security at this point.

Good, then they should stop wasting the money. If 100 billion for defense and 2+ billion in aid do not make a difference, then we should spend that money where it does. Climate change anyone?
Of course it makes a difference, just not in time for Ukraine. Procurement takes forever and is one of the weakest points in German defense. And unfortunately that's an issue you cannot solve by throwing money at it.

What I am saying is, that if you so prominently point the finger at others' mistakes you better did not make any mistakes of your own.
The countries that guranteed the independence of Ukraine were the US, UK, France, China and Germany. Who of them sprung to action when Crimea was invaded? Besides nukes, they also gave up other weapon systems that could have been of an advantage now: https://www.armscontrol.org/node/2963

If you consder the alternative scenario, Germany would meet its demands and had a super strong military, don't you think the countries that urge Germany to do more right now would then feel threatened?
That's fair. And in the absence of an imminent threat, Germany spending that kind of money would assuredly be viewed as a threat in itself. Which is why international coordination and spending with the abilities of other Nato and EU countries in mind is so crucial.

I agree that this cannot be sat out. However, don't you think NATO moving more and more towards being a party in the war weakens Europe's security short term?
Very short term maybe, but anything else is just kicking the can down the road. Puting has made his ambitions very clear and he won't stop at Ukraine. Weaken Russia as much as possible.

See Brexit, once decided it cannot be reverted. ;)
I actually like the calm decision making process and weighing of all factors. It prevents us from slipping into WW3. Or are you ready to fight?
I don't think that's comparable at all. And let's not forget that a democratically elected goverment decided to reverse the decision to abandon nuclear power, just for Merkel to make a very top down and decidedly not democratic decision to reverse course yet again and abandon nuclear power after all. So we have done this dance three times now, why not go for a fourth round if circumstances have changed? Doesn't even need to be about expanding nuclear power, but keeping the still working plans on the grid for longer seems sensible, especially when we intend to keep burning coal for a decade longer than the nuclear plants remain operational.
I don't see the German slowness that is sometimes marketed as deliberate decision making as advantageous here, the situation is what it is and that WW3 talk is not helpful in assessing it in my opinion. Whether we send some Marders and Leopard 1 doesn't make a qualitative difference in my mind, our anti tank weapons have hopefully already done plenty of damage to the Russians.
Weapon deliveries are one thing, energy is another. And there are plenty of options between the current state of affairs and a full on immediate embargo.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,669
3,123
As they should, why would they participate in Steinmeier's PR mission. Sent someone who can actually offer... something and send a positive signal. Boris Johnson is a spineless clown and Britain is an embarassment regarding refugees, but at least he knows how to play situations like these.
I take Steinmeier over Johnson any time of the day!

.... but one of the very few things he got right was Germany's over reliance on Russian energy.
I totally agree with that. Not relying on a better energy mix is/was bad. But the political decision to get out of nuclear power needed a bridge technology like natural gas to buy Germany time. So one decision affected the other.

China is equally problematic but not as threatening to European territorial security at this point.
You just wait. In contrast to Russia they have all the modern technology, the money and the people to dominate the world.

That's fair. And in the absence of an imminent threat, Germany spending that kind of money would assuredly be viewed as a threat in itself. Which is why international coordination and spending with the abilities of other Nato and EU countries in mind is so crucial.
The US and UK successfully stopped a real "EU army". That is the only way I would feel comfortable to see a strengthened German military.

Very short term maybe, but anything else is just kicking the can down the road. Puting has made his ambitions very clear and he won't stop at Ukraine. Weaken Russia as much as possible.
Doesn't help you when the nukes are flying. Putin will use tactical nukes once he sees no other alternative. And we are closer than many want to believe.

Doesn't even need to be about expanding nuclear power, but keeping the still working plans on the grid for longer seems sensible, especially when we intend to keep burning coal for a decade longer than the nuclear plants remain operational.
I read an interview with a CEO of one of the energy companies recently and he said that even if they wanted to, it is not feasible. To keep reactors running they would need to refuel them, an investment they do not want to commit to because of the limited running time. No ROI.

Weapon deliveries are one thing, energy is another. And there are plenty of options between the current state of affairs and a full on immediate embargo.
Yep, but these need to be explored and weighted.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,721
21,747
Sleazattle
I wonder if bRaIn wakes up excitedly every morning hoping for news that Hunter Biden's Covid Lab was discovered.
 
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Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,166
377
Bay Area, California
I wonder if bRaIn wakes up excitedly every morning hoping for news that Hunter Biden's Covid Lab was discovered.
Nope, whatever happens, happens. Your party ran the table in 2020 so I'm assuming your elated with the Biden administration so far to date. IMO, it is what it is. So if you say everything is going swimmingly, then great! I just get a good chuckle watching this group kvetch 24/7. Kinda sad to see so many miserable people on a mountain biking site. You guys have such a deep hatred for anything/one on the right its such a joke. Anyways, to each his own.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Nope, whatever happens, happens. Your party ran the table in 2020 so I'm assuming your elated with the Biden administration so far to date. IMO, it is what it is. So if you say everything is going swimmingly, then great! I just get a good chuckle watching this group kvetch 24/7. Kinda sad to see so many miserable people on a mountain biking site. You guys have such a deep hatred for anything/one on the right its such a joke. Anyways, to each his own.



:rofl:
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,721
21,747
Sleazattle
When Putin's chief propagandist attacks the official propaganda...

View attachment 175154

He has good questions. One should expect a ship like that to be able to defend itself against missiles like that. One should expect a ship like that to survive a few hits from missiles like that. Good chance the Ukranian's had some intel that some defensive systems were down and timed their attack accordingly. Or perhaps their defense systems ended up getting installed on an oligarch's yacht.