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WWIII thread

Changleen

Paranoid Member
Jan 9, 2004
14,857
2,815
Pōneke
Yeah I know where IPA gets the name from and why. Damn tho woo you has a cynical. Come visit sometime. You live in (metaphorical) hell, you don’t need to.
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Thanks to general anarchist principles of immediate community mutual aid and local support I'm doing okay. It's not like I traveled around half the planet to work in florida or anything.

I can't come to NZ. I'd be murdered when they told me to leave and I punched a bitch.
 

Changleen

Paranoid Member
Jan 9, 2004
14,857
2,815
Pōneke
Thanks to general anarchist principles of immediate community mutual aid and local support I'm doing okay. It's not like I traveled around half the planet to work in florida or anything.

I can't come to NZ. I'd be murdered when they told me to leave and I punched a bitch.
S’OK. We don’t have ICE or anything. You could be an Overstayer.

 

FlipSide

Turbo Monkey
Sep 24, 2001
1,453
916
Back to topic. Here is Russia shooting at itself.

Could the reason behind this be as simple as the stupid orc entered the GPS coordinates of his current location instead of the target location?

No idea how these weapons work, but it sure looks like something like that.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,251
22,280
Sleazattle
Could the reason behind this be as simple as the stupid orc entered the GPS coordinates of his current location instead of the target location?

No idea how these weapons work, but it sure looks like something like that.
That would not surprise me, it actually looks like a controlled maneuver, but I have no idea how those things work. The Pentagon reported that a good half of their missiles suffer some sort of failure on launch.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,400
10,873
AK
Could the reason behind this be as simple as the stupid orc entered the GPS coordinates of his current location instead of the target location?

No idea how these weapons work, but it sure looks like something like that.
Definitely not for a rocket (MLRS/HIMARS), that would imply some kind of guided missile, except it seems highly unlikely a missile would go "active" that quickly and they typically aren't *that* maneuverable. Even if it's a surface to air, they tend to kill more based on speed and limited maneuvering, not making 180 degree turns, that's movie-stuff. I'd think it's a launch malfunction of some kind, like failure for fins to deploy or something. And if it's a surface to surface rocket or missile, those typically have safety-systems in the computer where it can't be fired on your own position, even if you enter your own coordinates. It will come up with an error. You enter in "boxes" of all your friendlies and positions, even if you aren't firing anywhere near them, at least that was SOP.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,251
22,280
Sleazattle
Definitely not for a rocket (MLRS/HIMARS), that would imply some kind of guided missile, except it seems highly unlikely a missile would go "active" that quickly and they typically aren't *that* maneuverable. Even if it's a surface to air, they tend to kill more based on speed and limited maneuvering, not making 180 degree turns, that's movie-stuff. I'd think it's a launch malfunction of some kind, like failure for fins to deploy or something. And if it's a surface to surface rocket or missile, those typically have safety-systems in the computer where it can't be fired on your own position, even if you enter your own coordinates. It will come up with an error. You enter in "boxes" of all your friendlies and positions, even if you aren't firing anywhere near them, at least that was SOP.
It was a SAM that the Russian's recently hacked to act as surface to surface. Doesn't look like the warhead went off when it crashed so probably wasn't armed yet
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,400
10,873
AK
It was a SAM that the Russian's recently hacked to act as surface to surface. Doesn't look like the warhead went off when it crashed so probably wasn't armed yet
Well it worked then.

Well, no secondary explosions it looks like.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,251
22,280
Sleazattle
Looks like Ukraine has launched an offensive in the south with initial reports of the Russians withdrawing.

Things have been fairly quiet as Ukraine has been silent on what is going on as it seems that the "news" is the main source of Russian "intelligence", but so far it looks like

  1. Ukraine moved forces towards Kherson (South) and announced a forthcoming offensive operation
  2. Russia responded by redistributing power to the South to reinforce Kherson
  3. Ukraine destroyed all the crossings across the Dnipro river cutting off all those Russian forces from supply and reinforcement
  4. Ukraine takes out most of the Russian air defense in the area so they easily operate drones and UAVs
  5. This cut off area is all within Ukrainian artillery
  6. Ukraine goes about destroying ammo dumps, headquarters and anything that moves in Kherson
  7. Russia tries to reinforce the area but Ukraine has all possible river crossings targeted.
  8. Instead of mounting a ground offense Ukraine just weakens the Russians and takes ground where the Russians have largely collapsed to limit losses.
  9. Moving reinforcements to the South has left Russian defensive lines near Kharkiv (North) sparse.
  10. Ukraine is now actively retaking poorly defended ground around Kharkiv
  11. So far Russia has largely responded by shelling civilian areas and is reportedly trying to buy arms from North Korea
 
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Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,400
10,873
AK
I watched a good military analysis today:

Cease fire really screws over Ukraine and Russia benefits from it.

It takes time to arrange and train conscripts. Russia can bring about 1.5x more to the party, but Ukraine can get more combatants faster/in the short term, well before Russia.

Russia has done the cease-fire thing several times in other spots to re-arrange their forces and get themselves re-organized. They've done it in Syria.

Best case is for Ukraine to really keep pushing in the short term. Both countries cannot maintain a 1000+ mile front.

Russia reverts more to a war of terror (is already kind of doing) rather than putting real effort and resources towards it. This allows them to "not back down", but keep a propaganda effort going. They are far too invested to back down.

For air power, they believe Ukraine will eventually/ultimately get F16s from NATO. Grippens would be better, because they can take the Meteor missile that can go head-to-head with the R-77-1 found on Russian air-to-air aircraft, but there are far more F16s available worldwide and it is a more likely scenario from NATO. They would lack a good counter for that R-77-1, advanced (long range) AMRAAMs would not be supplied or compatible with the F16 anyway. They would take at least a year to train and field technicians and pilots. Current Ukrainian Migs or other aircraft equipped with the AGM-88 are jerry-rigged and can't use the missiles for significant destruction of air defense assets, they can't interface with the aircraft's threat-detection equipment, so they have to rely on pre-programmed radar signatures/frequencies and sites that occurs before takeoff. Current phased array radars are also fairly hardened against fragmentation heads on these HARMS and shrapnel simply doesn't hurt them that bad. So the idea is these may be able to create more temporary denials of air-defenses when drones would be able to get in and sight targets for artillery and other drones, rather than being able to conduct aircraft air-strikes and use the HARM as general air-defense suppression. They simply don't have that capability because the aircraft threat detection doesn't talk to the missile. The HARM is fairly flexible, it doesn't *need to*, but it then loses a lot of utility.

Older F18s are unlikely, they don't have the avionics capability of both the F16 or Grippen and lack the short-landing capability of both (tailhook operations not likely).

Anyway, that's the summary.
 
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Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,251
22,280
Sleazattle
It is starting to sound like the Russian army is utterly collapsing around Kharkiv. I hope those poor dumb bastards run or surrender.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
24,910
12,660
In the cleavage of the Tetons

Russian 202th separate regiment operating in Kharkiv has been completely abandoned by its commanders.

The unit is currently without communication or command, presumably roaming around...

"The 237th Guard Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Federation ceased its existence due to the death or injury of all servicemen. A large portion of the survivors are in extremely critical condition."

There is also unconfirmed reports that Russian soldiers are shooting the ones that want to retreat.

Some Soldiers are found dead before the battles have even started.
 
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Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,251
22,280
Sleazattle
Screenshot_20220910-123214.png


I believe this was intended as a joke. But what makes it funny is that it is probably close to the truth. Ukraine just got all the heavy weapons they have been asking for. Sadly in a worn out poorly maintained state.
 

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