Quantcast

yo nerd herd/brain trust! should I worry about this?

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
pfft, he & boener are playing chicken w/ wheechairs -- the checks must, must, must go out

it's other stuff that may not get funded, or will get IOUs
 

clarkenstein

Monkey
Nov 28, 2008
244
0
um......yeah......I was in a coma for 3 months with a massive TBI

is this good or bad, dumb it down for me doc
good. this will let the republicans save face by saying they were against the increase, and let obama get the increase in without any deals having to be made.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,439
7,816
It's good in that checks will continue to flow. It's also good in that it'd mark an end-run around the legislative process, where one recalcitrant Republican (or Democrat!) senator can cock up the whole affair.

It's bad in that no progress will be made to addressing the fundamental problems that cause the deficit, which in turn leads to the debt when maintained over many years.
 

gonefirefightin

free wieners
It's good in that checks will continue to flow. It's also good in that it'd mark an end-run around the legislative process, where one recalcitrant Republican (or Democrat!) senator can cock up the whole affair.

It's bad in that no progress will be made to addressing the fundamental problems that cause the deficit, which in turn leads to the debt when maintained over many years.
smoke and mirrors.....band aid on a broken leg
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Looks like this is how it's going to play out, with legislative sleight of hand and Obama getting his wish:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/us-usa-debt-backup-idUSTRE76B5Y920110712
And allow the GOP a massive political victory where they get to paint Obama and the Democrats as the sole reason why the national debt limit is raised? Jeez, that's akin to political suicide right now, especially as polls are coming out that have the American public putting "cutting government spending" ahead of default on their priority list... Remember, Bachmann is claiming that the government shouldn't raise the debt ceiling at all..... This might be.ultimately how it goes down, but I wouldn't bet too much money on it.

GFF - at WORST I'd say checks would be delayed a week or two. Definitely a possibility, but if you have a couple weeks cash boarded up it'd probably be a good thing.
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
You're not going to get screwed long term. There might be a delay. I blame the fags, personally. They just keep causing problems here in God's blessed country...
 

Beef Supreme

Turbo Monkey
Oct 29, 2010
1,434
73
Hiding from the stupid
By the way, if Mitch was so interested in handing BHO an unrestrained debt ceiling increase, why not just vote for that (other than trying to placate their bat**** crazy base, that is...)?
While true, I doubt this will be the story line at the end of the day.

The Republicans were poised to get a very good deal had they not painted themselves into such a corner. I don't even see this as a political victory for them however. Obama just needs to request enough of an increase to put the issue to rest through the election. The average American will have forgotten all about this by then.

Of course, it is bad news for anyone who actually cares about the debt.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
While true, I doubt this will be the story line at the end of the day.

The Republicans were poised to get a very good deal had they not painted themselves into such a corner. I don't even see this as a political victory for them however. Obama just needs to request enough of an increase to put the issue to rest through the election. The average American will have forgotten all about this by then.

Of course, it is bad news for anyone who actually cares about the debt.
Don't know, its reported that the House Dems have not agreed to get on board a GOP plan on raising the debt limit. Basically the vote is toxic to Republicans, so it would go like this: GOP puts agreement up to vote, most GOP vote no, all Dems and a few moderate Republicans vote yes, bill passes and all of the GOP get to claim moral superiority to their base, and can bash the Democrats as causing massive deficits.

Only problem is that the Democrats can just vote "present and screw that up. Then the GOP gets to be seen as killing the deal, and they get the blame. The Dems have already done it once on the "conservatives budget" that almost passed the House a couple months ago....
 

Beef Supreme

Turbo Monkey
Oct 29, 2010
1,434
73
Hiding from the stupid
the GOP get to claim moral superiority to their base, and can bash the Democrats as causing massive deficits.
They are going to do that anyway so it doesn't matter. This debt hysteria is coming from the same party that explicitly argued that deficits don't matter during the Bush years. It doesn't make a lick of difference as they seem to be able to wield a phoney cudgel as effectively as a real one.
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
They are going to do that anyway so it doesn't matter. This debt hysteria is coming from the same party that explicitly argued that deficits don't matter during the Bush years. It doesn't make a lick of difference as they seem to be able to wield a phoney cudgel as effectively as a real one.
I think the unspoken word on the end of Cheney's remark "Reagan proved deficits don't matter" was "politically."

I feel like I just raped a kitten, having to defend Cheney. Ughh.
 

-BB-

I broke all the rules, but somehow still became mo
Sep 6, 2001
4,254
28
Livin it up in the O.C.
#1 - Repubs are scared sheetless by the recent mi-term elections and the whole tea movement so although they would LIKE to vote for a deal, they cant or some other tea(person) in their district will run against them and beat the heck out of the fact that they voted for "Obama-debt"

#2 - We HAVE defaulted on the debt before... for about 2 months back in the 70s. Govt rates went up and what (then) was only a $120m payment failure ended up costing the Govt more than $6billion in increased rate obligations

#3 - Obama doesn't have to listen to the right OR get a deal. He needs to hang tough (like the backstreet boys) and then when no deal is reached, just go ahead and pay the debts (and sell bonds to do so) without a congressional approval, as he really doesn't even need it. Then paint the Repubs as the bad guys that were willing to sacrafice the economy, our kids education and our seniors in order to stand by some meaningless philisophical viewpoint.

Either way, we will NOT default even if a deal cannot be reached.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
The more I hear about the Mitch plan, the less I like it, and the less likely I think it'll actually happen...

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/the-big-blink-mcconnell-proposes-giving-obama-authority-to-raise-debt-limit-alone.php

Making Obama 100% responsible for raising the debt limit, and then make the Democrats defend it in the months leading up to the election while allowing the GOP to decry the action to their Tea Bagger base? Yeah, this plan is effectively dead in the water, as far as I'm concerned.
 
Last edited:

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,439
7,816
Do you really think that any Republicans will risk the ire of their irrational base for the sake of the common good? I foresee no (R) votes for any kind of plan, and default unless the backdoor option is used.

Sure, the Republicans will hammer it home on the Dems on this issue even though much of the deficit is their fault (Star Wars, tax cuts x many, Bush's wars, Medicare Part D). Will their base care a whit about the facts? Don't count on it.
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
Do you really think that any Republicans will risk the ire of their irrational base for the sake of the common good? I foresee no (R) votes for any kind of plan, and default unless the backdoor option is used.

Sure, the Republicans will hammer it home on the Dems on this issue even though much of the deficit is their fault (Star Wars, tax cuts x many, Bush's wars, Medicare Part D). Will their base care a whit about the facts? Don't count on it.
They won't for the Tea Party. They might because the Chamber of Commerce told them to stop listening to retards who believe that the world is 6000 years old and that Jesus is a climate change solution.

The GOP is at a Rubicon here. It will be interesting to see if they cross or not.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,439
7,816
When the **** goes down, just remember this: http://www7.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/07/america’s-debt-ceiling

The highest ratio of spending cuts to tax increases that was enacted was about 2:1, under Clinton. Reagan, the fairy godmother in theory of the Republicans, signed a package that was 1:4--yes, 4x the tax increases as spending cuts!

With this as a baseline, the White House, spineless as they are, stepped up with an initial proposal of a 7:1 package, far more severe in terms of the ratio than anything passed before. In response, the Republicans said that they'd only accept a package of PURE spending cuts: an infinite ratio, if you will.

The Dems are a bunch of pussies, and the Republicans are a bunch of budget arsonists. True story. Unfortunately, in this story, we don't win.

 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,518
20,325
Sleazattle
Bleeding us dry.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong but I would like to point out that the payroll tax is the one tax you cannot avoid. Earn your living by anything other than a 9-5 and there are so many tax dodges you would have to be an idiot to pay very much to Uncle Sam. I do not plan on working much over the next few years I have been shocked to see the tax benefits I get on the non-work related income. All the folks out there who work for a living and vote on tax cuts are getting ripped off by the scam of the century.
 

heavy metal

Monkey
Mar 31, 2011
193
4
HI
Dems would cut payroll tax and raise upper bracket income tax / close myriad of loop holes to compensate if they had much balls.

Raising corporate tax right now would probably make wallstreet **** a brick and tank so can't do that yet.
 

gonefirefightin

free wieners
according to this bulletin there are alot of combat vets that will be pretty upset if the checks dont come

More than 1 out of 5 adult Social Security beneficiaries has served in the military, and veterans and their families comprise 35 percent of the beneficiary population. Using data from
the March 2010 Current Population Survey
I am no mathematician but I bet thats a pretty damn big number, I am also no statistician but I am pretty sure there are several nut cases like my self on there last string of sanity that would probably snap into a PTSD rage.

just thinking about this crap is making me clean my weapons while looking at road maps to DC
 

sunny

Grammar Civil Patrol
Jul 2, 2004
1,107
0
Sandy Eggo, CA
Are you in a state where your senator is absolutely committed to a vote in a certain direction? If yes, there's not a lot your contacting him will do. If no, call your senator and voice your concern about your benefits. If nothing else, it will make you feel like you have some kind of control, or that at least you did something.

Big picture?
I'm a stay-at-home mom with a husband who works for the Navy. We rely on the government being able to pay it's obligations. If the US defaults and we (the USA) lose our credit rating and our currency is worthless, we (my family) may have to move from SoCal to someplace more business-friendly. Funny how that means going from a blue state to a red state where businesses are allowed to prosper. We may have to give up things. But I doubt we'll starve, and I doubt there will be tear-gas riots in the streets.

If we raise the debt ceiling, there's still a chance the US will lose its credit rating, and our currency will be devalued. We spend more than we can pay, simple as that, and we simply refuse to spend less. We don't even see why we should have to live within our means.

If we raise the debt ceiling, and we keep our credit rating, but raise taxes, this will have an effect on new job growth. The private sector people who are small-business owners, who are paying salaries and paying taxes will be some of the hardest hit, and will be less likely to go out and invest in their businesses and hire new people. They are not making any more money, they are still in a tough economy, yet they are still expected to pay more. I dunno, would you be trying to expand your business or would you be paring down? Most households and businesses are paring down.

No one knows what will happen - people are guessing all over the map. But at some point, we have to stop overspending, balance the budget, and pay our debts.

I've received emails telling me my trails are going to close and funding will be taken away from bike lane projects. I don't like that, but honestly, it is not a priority. It's a want, not a need. But very few people are willing to be honest with what's a want and what's a need.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
If we raise the debt ceiling, and we keep our credit rating, but raise taxes, this will have an effect on new job growth. The private sector people who are small-business owners, who are paying salaries and paying taxes will be some of the hardest hit, and will be less likely to go out and invest in their businesses and hire new people. They are not making any more money, they are still in a tough economy, yet they are still expected to pay more. I dunno, would you be trying to expand your business or would you be paring down? Most households and businesses are paring down.
Bullsh!t. The decision to hire people is a matter of consumer demand. If there's demand for my product to the point that I have to hire another person to keep up, I'll do it in a heartbeat regardless of my tax situation. Similarly, if there's no demand for my goods, I'm not hiring anyone even if the federal government shoves another $500 into my pocket with the "hope" that I'll create jobs. Corporations are sitting on record amounts of cash because the Federal government has thrown money at them, and they've said "thank you" and just pocketed it.

Yes, we need to cut spending. However, there is NO way to cut spending enough to balance the budget. We could cut out the entire Dept of Defense, all VA benefits, all Education spending, and all health spending that's lumped into the general fund (ie, Medicaid, research, etc) and we still wouldn't have a balanced budget.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/01/us/budget.html

(Our budget deficit was ~1.6T, so if you can find that amount to get rid of in that graph, be my guest)

We *also* need to raise revenues. We're paying a lower percentage of our GDP in taxes than we *ever* have.



Everything that's been done in the past decade has been to lower tax revenues. Lowering tax rates, increasing deductions. $1,000/child tax credit. Etc.

We *need* to raise tax revenue. I'd like to see all taxes raised (on everybody), but I'll settle on just those making $250k if that's what can be passed. Whatever, we just need to get additional revenues into the federal coffer...

edit: Oh, and Sunny, the tax increases that I've heard proposed will *NOT* fall on "small business owners". It is things such as:

1) Reducing the home mortgage interest deduction to primary residence, and possibly to *only* $500k and under homes.
2) Making hedge fund managers count their income as well.... income, as opposed to capital gains. Right now you have billionaire hedge fund managers filing taxes at the 15% cap gains rate.
3) Higher taxes on private jet owners (political posturing)
etc.
 
Last edited:

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
um....I am getting emails that not only social security is on edge but now my veterans benefits are as well?

somebody help me understand this
worst case is, they'll delay our checks, but not ditch 'em

hope you're well stocked on dog food / MREs
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
If we raise the debt ceiling, there's still a chance the US will lose its credit rating, and our currency will be devalued. We spend more than we can pay, simple as that, and we simply refuse to spend less. We don't even see why we should have to live within our means.
Please stop listening to whoever it is you listen to.

You have no idea what you're talking about.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
Posted this on my FB page.

During WWII, the US raised income taxes and people viewed buying war-bonds as patriotic. Today while we are fighting two wars overseas, people are fighting to keep mortgage interest deductions on million-dollar vacation homes and to keep the 15% federal tax bracket on hedge fund manager's annual income. It saddens me to say this, but we are a completely different and greedier country today than we were back then.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
Please stop listening to whoever it is you listen to.
starting with you?

if our debt is increasing every second (and it is), then is this not the very definition of spending more than we can pay?

and if we default, why should we continue to be AAA? what would be the very point of a credit rating?